FTSE BULLISH EXHAUSTION?I am currently looking to sell this index.
It is no surprise to anyone who reads my ideas ,not many:p, that I am of the option that whilst the latest inflation data coming from the UK has ticked lower, I believe it will again raise its head to bite the UK on its ar$e.
I guess more importantly, I think the inflation data coming out of the US over the coming months will be hot and with that the dollar will rally once again. Although not quite as it did in 2022. This will result in a significant exportation of inflation around the world which will further increase the prices of food, energy and fuel; pretty much everything that is priced in USD. Ultimately hurting the economies which the companies comprising the FTSE rely on. Aside from big pharma and petrochemicals.
Moreover, if you look at the chart above, the FTSE has been in a decent rally since October of last year which culminated in an all-time high milestone of 8000. The rally to date has been moving in an ascending triangle (WHITE) which coincided nicely with relatively strong divergences between the move up to 8000 and the indicators shown (RED).
This is often a good indication of weakness in a prevailing trend and may potentially signal bullish exhaustion. The price broke this triangle structure on 28/02/23 with a failed rally back to support which indicates that we may be looking at a decent move to the downside in the coming weeks and months. As such, I’m now looking to enter a sell trade from here-on.
My POI for this move is anywhere between 8950 and 8130 (current price to top of structure)
As always I will be scaling in my positions as (or if) the price moves higher, which I expect it will until Powell comes out and admits that last months 25bps hike was a mistake.
It’s important to note that the UK economy and this index are not overly correlated because whilst the companies making up the FTSE may be HQ’d in the UK, their market audiences are more global. Please bear in mind that this is not a full breakdown or analysis for an entry, it is just my current thoughts on this market and a very basic o view of why I’m looking to short this index. Please always do your own analysis and always trade with caution.
UKX trade ideas
British FTSE100 dropIt looks possibly that the recent all time high in the British FTSE100 index was a false breakout providing liquidity to shorts. Today the index is sharply down.
FTSE to recoup some of Friday's 'SVB' selloff?Friday was the most bearish day for the FTSE since September, as concerns over SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) and the potential for contagion across the finance sector weighed on sentiment. Yet a joint statement from the Fed, Treasury and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp) released on Sunday assured that deposits at the bank will be guaranteed, which helped boost sentiment in today's Asian session.
Futures markets point to a higher open, and we suspect the FTSE can rebound and recoup at least some of Friday's losses. Note that the RSI (2) reached oversold by Friday's close, and the low of the day found support around the 2019 / 2020 highs and monthly S1 pivot.
The bias is bullish above Friday's low and for an initial move to 7800, a break above which brings 7850 into focus.
FTSE100 - KOG Key daily support here, break below and this will go down for a potential bounce, however, this level here should be strong.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Intelligent Trading Academy - FTSE FX FTM DAILY SELLThe FTSE index has respected our analysis and has produced some great trades for us.
Today on the daily timeframe we highlight our shorting level of interest (LOI) at 7867 and we monitor closely.
Updates daily in the VIP group chat.
FTSE 100 Index Trending HigherFTSE 100 Index trending higher on the weekly chart; current price is above its 10 week moving average (bullish); both the 4 and 13 week rate of change indicators above zero (bullish); upside prospects for the short to medium term (5-49 days) spotted at 8,023 and 8,203, while downside price risk below 7,742 implies the end of the prevailing up-trend.
Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future performance.
FTSE Broke from a range to the upside.Previous support located at 7950.
Previous resistance located at 8000.
The correction lower is assessed as being complete.
Further upside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 8006 and 8024
UK100 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 7926 (stop at 7894)
Resistance: 800 / 8050 / 8100
Support: 7950 / 7900 / 7850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
SELLUK100- broke the trendline, and now we have a very good R:R to take a short position to the support zone which is also the bottom line of the channel.
UK 7000 Target ReachedTaken a few months but the UK short Target has been reached.
Expecting things to plateaux from here.
Best, HF
FTSE Top?It looks like the FTSE has found a top. I'm expecting the price to 'Re-balance' the Daily Imbalance of last week before continuing trending lower.
I have set an alarm if to this BLUE AREA (Daily Imbalance).
FTSE bulls eye break of 8,000The FTSE snapped a 4-day losing streak yesterday, after the pullback from its record high found support along the bullish trendline. A bullish engulfing candle also closed above the 10 and 20-day EMA’s, after the RSI (2) went into oversold territory the day prior. So it appears a swing low has formed and we’re looking for a move back above 8,000 whilst prices remain above last week’s low.
UK100 ( FTSE ) - Trade Idea - Long[b|Trade ldea:
Price is significantly above the 200 EMA showing very strong bullish pressure. Both the 100 EMA and
the 50 EMA are also above the 200 EMA so we are only looking for longs on this asset. Price action
recently had been super strong and heading to the upside which is another confluence to enter long on
this asset. Price has also been respecting as upwards trendline which again is another confluence to
enter long on this asset. This trade is setting up nicely for us however it isn't fully there yet. First we
need to see either a pullback to our level of support with a bullish entry signal to enter long or we need
to see a break and retest of the level of resistance for support and then a bullish entry signal to enter
long. We prefer the idea of a break and retest as it shows that the bullish momentum is continuing
however we also see the first setup as a good trade to enter into. As the setup isnt quite here yet we
need to stay patient and wait for the setup. Until then we will be waiting because as traders we need to
be disciplined and stick to our plans exactly
Disclaimer:
This is my opinion on this asset at the time. This is not financial advise. Don't take this trade blindly, do
your own analysis first before entering. Feel free to use this analysis to assist you with yours. Feel free
to leave any comments you have. Good luck!
UK100 BearishUK 100 overbought at 1W and 1D. There's also a divergence playing out at last movement, the uptrend is fragile and about to break downwards.
TP @7321, SL @8010
UK100 to breakdown?UK100 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 7899 (stop at 7943)
Previous support located at 7900.
Previous resistance located at 7975.
Bearish divergence can be seen on the 4 hour chart (the chart makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high), often a signal of exhausted bullish momentum, or at least a correction lower.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
A move through 7900 will confirm the bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 7789 and 7759
Resistance: 7975 / 8000 / 8050
Support: 7900 / 7750 / 7700
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
