US 2Y Government bonds yield trendWill the past be a good indicator of the future in that case?
Are we going to see negative rates in the US?
Big debt crisis incoming?
US02Y trade ideas
Interesting days are coming.Interesting days are coming. In my analysis, I indicated that there could be a 50 basis point cut in interest rates. Although intervention could have been anticipated, early in the morning, it surprised everyone. Let's look at the analysis. Apparently it did not affect market pricing. We have reached the technical target price. This is 0.611% (The chart in the analysis is the yield curve for two-year bonds) This means that the market expects such a rate for the next two years. In other words, we can say that Future is a curve of interest. In my opinion, the exchange rate can now calm down. A back adjustment may be made to the 1% level of the interest rate band. After that, the market greed may start again. The market may price interest rates close to 0% (0.1%).
reposimilar pattern with rates waterfall as russia collapse. This time it is too much gov't debt/bond crisis. Stock market rally to the moon after this event, check Oct 12/98 for what Nasdaq/S&p.... did
Dollar interest rate cut by 50 basis points.Dollar interest rate cut by 50 basis points. 2020.március.18. www.cmegroup.com My analysis charts the market expectations of a dollar cut in interest rates. The reason I like to use the US02Y chart is because it gives you a much clearer idea of what the market is doing. With a fractal analysis, the future movement of the interest rate path becomes foreseeable in weeks. CME TOOLS also confirms my chart analysis as a percentage. What do I expect? The market continues to move ahead with interest rate cut expectations. Market expectations could reach 0.6% for the FED Open Market Committee meeting on March 18. Of course, the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points. Up to this point, the dollar will weaken. EURUSD is rising. Then there is relaxation. The dollar can gain a lot of strength. But this will apparently be temporary. Because the market is once again taking out the "original lesson" and playing for further interest cuts. From here on, the situation may be more interesting, but later ........
Interest cut?Interest cut? Let's look at this chart. It can be seen that the current dollar interest rate and the two-year forward interest rates the market is slowly losing their relationship. The market is already forecasting two 25 basis points of interest rate cuts.
ridethepig | US02Y Market Commentary 2020.02.25Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call:
" Selling life as expensive as possible "
Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is condemned to death, it is quite understandable for those wanting to sell Bonds are the highest price possible. Generally speaking, such a telegraphed move is much stranger to the novice than an experienced:
Virus worries and Japan confirming recession is trigger a move in vol, and it makes the US05Y-US02Y attractive. Treasuries will outperform for the coming months, Equities will remain soft until later in the year.
Hesitant to build full sized positions till we have a technical break as we are aggressively outguessing the next move from FED. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming via likes and comments! Jump in with your charts below!
FED interest rate cut refilled.FED interest rate cut refilled. If you look at the forward interest rates on 2-year US bonds, the market has been pushing for further interest rate cuts in recent days. The figure shows that, technically, the Fed's benchmark interest rate starts at 0.96%. Therefore, I believe the dollar may start to weaken in the coming weeks.
US BONDS 2 Y yield ut W ideaUS BONDS 2 Y yield ut W idea
"Every breath you take and every move you make
Every bond you break, every step you take, I'll be watching you
Every single day and every word you say
Every game you play, every night you stay, I'll be watching you
Oh, can't you see you belong to me
How my poor heart aches with every step you take
Every move you make, and every vow you break
Every smile you fake, every claim you stake, I'll be watching you"
US2y to stay below 1.500The chart patterns indicated that the US2Y yield is going to break and stay below 1.500.
The implications are that the spread (or difference) between US10Y minus US2Y is getting smaller. This, in turn, is suggesting reversion or a correction in US Indices towards the mean
You can see the initial chart pattern A, which led to the corresponding drop to point 1, and chart pattern B, which led to drop point 2
I think the US2Y will hold at 1.418 and then fall to 1.365 as the maximum potential drop
#Bond inversion again suggests $SPX dipTight YCI - 2Y note minus 3M note (blue)
Tracks SPX (orange) well from Apr 19. suggests a pullback to 3070
The US10Y/US03M due to invert as well.
long trendPresident trump is crazy
deliberately manipulated bond yield rise to temporarily drop
He's crazy
What can the President do for granted
there's no way to die property
No President has ever intervened so much in the market
US02Y To bounce as it has previously done?In the past two recessions, US02Y bounced up. Will it do the same this time?
US02Y Forecasts gold price and recession?If you take a look at the previous recession's pattern, it looks like it's about to happen again.
Path of 2 YR Interest RatesUsing a weekly chart to predict the path of short term interest rates, it appears lower rates are ahead. The path toward lower interest rates which continues to keep the inflation game going.
Keep an eye on rates!!I am looking for a bear steepner at this time. Keep an eye on 10y yields. We may see kumo breakout soon. This will impact a few things.
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US 2 year bullish wedge breakoutLong-term, US 2 year going to 6% per huge cup and handle. (See other chart.)
Bond armageddon coming — US 2-year to 6%Finishing up a huge, multi-year cup and handle. Get out of bonds and go short.
Comparing US02Y vs US10YBy decrementing US10Y from US02Y we see the actual breakout so to speak.
Volatile. Already touched the previous Global Resistance with a huge spike and most likely next 2 to 3 years are going to be volatile as well coming to an end around Nov 2021 - the point that looks pretty similar to what we already saw in 1991 | 2001 | 2008 and notice since 2008 the move down wasn't that significant comparing to the previous two(1991-1993 and 2001-2003) thank's to US QE I guess? We might actually end this trend or maybe just maybe from 2021 to 2023 going below the ZERO which you can comment the possibility of that happens and how do you prepare yourself ;-)
According to this time analysis in Nov 2021 "the disaster" is going to be at the peak.
US02Y: BUY or SELL?12 years of doubts before the actual recession
OR
12 years that the trend is going to change?
