No Rate Cut, Higher Rates, Stock Market Up?I believe stock markets worldwide will continue its bull run despite past indicators like the yield curve inversion signaling a bear market/recession. We are entering a new era of time.
US02Y trade ideas
Rate cut on PointFED with no other choice but to cut rates as predicted a few weeks ago. This was no coincidence and perfectly plays into the recession scenario.
Cutting rates with the fully loaded balance sheet is a very precarious task and markets are bound to become increasingly unstable Because of the insanely high uncertainty when it comes to monetary policy.
Long on bonds with tanking yields, Short global markets
interest rate bounce off the zero line or enter below zone and gold rockets up?? something to watch for
3.015 is the only level in play for 2 year yields...It is very clear from the monthly chart here that this has been an uptrend for some time now. The 2 year yields have started to see some widely anticipated profit taking just shy of the 2.618 extended target for the 3rd wave.
The market has since retraced and held the 23.6% in a corrective 4th wave process.
Time to start paying attention to yields again for 2019.
US02Y 2 Year Yield - History Repeats Itself2YY is falling after a retest of the multi-decade trend. This will be the fourth time in history.
These are followed by a major bear market and recession.
expecting fed to reduce ratesInversion on the yield curve is making markets very uneasy and for good reason. Now the fed is stuck between to evils. Raising rates to reduce the balance sheet in order to be prepared for the inevitable recession (lets be honest, its too late for that now), OR reduce rates to at least flatten the yield curve. This would show in the yield of the 2 year and 3 month treasury being reduced to 2.4% and below.
This is exactly what they wanted to avoid but thats the price the FED pays for letting the market dictate monetary policy when they should've been raising rates long ago.
Expecting short term rates to fall shortly. There is not much that can be done now but brace because there is a decade worth of a shitstorm about to be unleashed in the form of credit and corporate debt and capitulation.
Long on the vix is a great way to protect assets if you are looking for a hedge.
Monetary easing is expected...USO2Y 2-Year US Treasury Bonds Predicting Interest Rate. If the graph analysis is correct. We can see a nearly 1% downward trend in interest rates this year. Monetary easing is expected.
$USDJPY Is Savaged, Hammered Over 3%FX turmoil early in the evening session with the AUDUSD falling to .6750, USDJPY falling through 105 and USDTRY blasting through 5.6.
EURUSD and GBPUSD are taking some heat, too, in what is being explained as carry trades being unwound as market participants are finally getting the gist: growth and inflation are slowing.
In my previous post, my intermediate TACVOL range was114.44/108.30. Price action had been unable to break above the range top, and now completely falling through the bottom. I would like this move play out before jumping in.
However, if you've read my work, I been trying to prepare readers for the epic shift.
If we look towards US/Japan rate differentials, USDJPY is suggesting US yields have much more to fall.
This was the largest rate of change move since 2017.
Current TACVOL range 115.54/108.87; -2.81 score suggesting a pull back is in order at least near-term.
US02Y/US05Y RATIO INDEXThis ratio shows us that we are in a beginning period for going below 1, in that case this is the first signal, and is the following one US02Y/US10Y will go in the same direction, recession will begin.
thank for this last one
Possible Recession comparison US02 yield 5 and 10 yearsI think that, It is in action a possible regression market where bit investor are more interested in long term 10 years that in 2 one.
This means that on the contrary, one dollar tomorrow are better than a dollar today, this is real on opposite meaning regarding the contrary one where thanks to inflaction and many different economical situation, a dollar today was always better than a dollar tomorrow.
Anyway follow my next chart where a comparison between US yield treasury with 2 and 5 years show us a real ratio below 1, this mean that this recession power limit is in act to beginnig
First of all after last 10 years of history in Central bank economical situation, we can consider this first signal a prediction considered a previous feedback but when spread US02Y/US10Y will inverted and will go in negative range we'll have a real signal and confirmation about real recession and when this event had realized it anticipates the recession and it will be bigger than 20s period of 20th century
Thanks for what my thoughts
Bond yeilds and Market TargetNotes on chart, but in short... I'm looking at the idea that if the 2/10 yield doesn't invert then a target of about 245-250ish area by Jan/Feb of 2019. If we do carry over for inversion on the 2/10 I'm looking longer term of roughly Sept. of 2020 as target for bottom of around 138-155. Just my thoughts and please let me know what think.
US Yield curve... clock is tickingHope this idea will inspire some of you !
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US2Y with DXY - moving togetherSince the begining of the rise in 2 year yield, USD was following closely. However, USD did not follow rates to new high, but diverged instead. Note that the momentum in 2y yield is slowing, which could portend fall in interest rates in not very distant future, which could in turn hurt USD.
The US02y a boon for equity bulls
The early month of October began with a myriad of experiences when the equity market went leaching in the red after a break from the long bull run since February. The DJI shed more than 600 points in a single session as risk-on mode eroded unconventionally as investors sought catalysts that precipitated the downfall. The sneeze that began in the US gave a cold to the entire world and for 2 respective days multi assets globally were on a downside spiral. What lingers in many traders minds is how comes that move was not anticipated? and what lessons do we juice out from this new norm of flash crashes? The US02Y has formed technical structures that unravel this conundrum. The FED rapid rate hikes which positively correlate with the US02Y are about to come into a halt as the wedge structural breakout is likely to consolidate after an impressive 5 year bull run as the tightening phase of the business cycle comes to an end. On the other hand, more inflows on equities will pour down as investors urge for risk grows due to the change in monetary policy . Nevertheless, a recession cant be ruled out of the table as the US-China trade war simmers there in derailing the health of the global economy and induce fear across assets all over the world if a resolution wont be met.
