US02Y 2% H1 2023Downward curving spiral channel. Equities crash when we hit the top of the resistance line. Likely stock market crash Q1/Q2 2023 given rate of increase. Short-term consolidation period expected Q2/Q3 '21 before final rip. GG
US02Y trade ideas
Yields - Possible Bullish Quarterly ShiftObserving yields to see if we start breaking above swing highs. We have closed above daily highs & imbalances. No body closure market structure shift just yet.
US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield 📌💵💰Daily chart.
Resistance zone.
It remains to be seen the position of the FED, whether or not to lower the rate?
Make up your mind.
2YEAR STOPPED AT .618 well now The chart is that of the 2 year we seem to stop right at .618 how about that ?? what next see RSI chart above I would not be short the 2 year
This Time is Different (so far)An inversion between the 2yr UST yield and the Federal Funds effective rate normally does not exceed -1%. When that happens, it's an indication the bond market is not getting the reaction from the Fed that it "expects" (or maybe it is a "want"). Inversions of this degree have normally been unkind to the equity market, but that is clearly not the case here in late 2023. Something to keep an eye on as the calendar turns to 2024.
US 2 and 10 Years Yield for evaluating the recession riskPlease note that these are my premature ideas. I don't claim any certain things.
I just evaluating the Technical Charts, which are important indicators to me for unknown upcoming global events.
I added my comments on the charts with text boxes. I am sure that you can also understand what is going on.
2Y Yields LowerTVC:US02Y
2Y Yields heading lower.
Sometime over the next 12-18ish months, I believe we'll see 2Y yields fall to 200-275 bps.
Headline inflation numbers are lower and dropping.
The Fed has effectively pulled a rabbit out of a hat in the act of raising interest rates by ~500+ bps, while avoiding the obliteration of the economy. (thus far)
If the economy does falter in the coming months; the Fed will lower rates.
(No further explanation needed)
Despite the endless repetition of "higher for longer" from Fed officials; I believe that the Fed will lower rates even if the economy and markets remain strong.
The establishment powers in the political & financial world's that the Fed straddles both crave the same thing... Cheap Debt.
In addition to this, there are over $34+ Trillion reasons to lower rates as soon as possible.
Not to mention, the upcoming election...
The market is anticipating lower yields as well.
We're seeing the market preemptively increase exposure to interest rate sensitive assets.
(i.e. - tech stocks, indices, cryptos, beaten down govt bonds, etc.)
On a technical basis, the weekly chart of 2Y Yields is showing substantial bearish divergence.
Weekly RSI shows a bearish RSI Swing Rejection (March '23 and October '23 highs)
The 50% & 61.8% Fib levels give us a target of 200-275 bps.
The median line set suggests that yields could arrive at the target area sometime between May '24 - May '25.
Conclusion: Short Yields.
Fat_Fat
Why is US 10Y yield Coming own fast?Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar. Is market moving to safe asset, the US dollar.
2 year Treasury monthly with Housing price indexContinuation of 2 year dictating (foreshadowing) the business cycle with housing prices added for reference. MACD doing the heavy lifting.
US10YR and USD vs USDPLNUS10YR and USD vs USDPLN. Just a chart to see how the USDPLN compares to the US treasuries
Yields - Bearish Quarterly OutlookOffering symmetry with my bonds analysis, I am seeing a bearish '22 model with a clear area that looks like an original consolidation. I am also bearish on on all assets that directly correlate with yields.
High Yield to Stay, Why?This video tutorial, we will learn the difference between:
• Interest rates and yield
• Healthy yield curve and an inverted one and
• The risks and opportunities with a prolong inverted yield curve (since March 2022)
Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation
Micro 2-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 5-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 5YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 30-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 30Y
0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Usa rates trend down As many of you might know we apparently have reached the peak of rates ... by rate markets we are going to hv next time a cut! Trend down
2 year yield still has a target at 5.50%Bulls still have a wave count supporting the final spiky move up in 2 year yield to 5.50%
Raising Rates Here Will Blow Japan Up. Blowing Up US Yields
Up coming Federal Reserve meeting, there's still underlying inflation in the USA but the amount of interest on debt + Japan buying US debt while their currency is almost completely free falling.
Would be one of the worst fiscal policy disasters since 2009.
Looking at Japan's society they're completely clueless of how close they are to blowing up.
1 & 2 Yr Yield look like they're running out of steamGOOD MORNING!
These will be DAILY charts but what we really need to see is how the week will close for all of these (this was thread on X)
TVC:DXY & TVC:TNX both look like they're running out of steam. The #Dollar does seem to be fighting this break.
30YR Treasury, read above statement.
1YR stopped going up long ago.
Are 2 Yr #Yields finally breaking?
Stock Market looks weak The market looks very exposed as one of the big 7 tech stocks performed poorly this earnings season. Also, interest rates look like they may have peaked however, history shows when the short-term rates fall vs long-term rates (or when rates are cut) there is a correction in the stock market.
The bear steepener and when we will get our scripted eventWatch this curve because the market always knows, and the market isn't as free as many think. Gives us a sign when the true risk off kicks in. Might be due for a short relief soon, and then it starts. A potential bounce area is market as white, might not match and steepen now, but the breadth indicates that more likely than not we will get it in a matter of weeks now since we've technically broke out from the pattern.
2 Year Treasury Yield Topped2 Year Yield will be the first to go down when the Fed starts cutting rates.
2 Year Yield On the EdgeThe US Treasury bond 2 year yield is at a level last seen in May 2006. In July 2022 the yield broke out of what was a long term down trend since 1989. Now we can see what happens next. Will the rates breakout above this level? If they do then that could indicate a real trend shift.
RSI divergence on 2 year yields Divergence implies we have seen highs in rates. RSI making lower highs as yields move up.
Looking for a bull steepener as economy enters recession or slows.
Applicable to traders in bonds. The short rate is most affected by Fed policy. A weakening in 2 year yields May presage Fed cuts.
