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US03MY trade ideas

Another 25 bps cut in interest ratesAnother 25 bps cut in interest rates This analysis predicts a FED 50 bounce cut. The chart shows the yield curve of the two-year US government bond and its future path. The current analysis attempts to predict the next three months' interest forecast. Let's look at the chart. It can be seen that in the shorter term, the market once again ran ahead. It can be seen that the intervention was a hurry for the Fed to announce a further cut in interest rates at the open market committee meeting on March 18. In my opinion, this can happen if the market prices future rates in the 0.5% range within a few days. In the event that the futures interest rates continue to fall as a "falling knife", it can be stated with certainty that, in addition to interest rate cuts, additional asset purchase incentives may be announced.
TVC:US03MEducation
by meszaros
3
US03M chart before another plunge.US03M chart before another plunge. The chart shows the forward rate curve for US 3-month government bonds. I've analyzed this curve many times. It can be seen that the chart makes small movements. Furthermore, it can be seen that the anti-movement ATRs (white rectangle) have a strong pressure on the exchange rate. In the event that the exchange rate falls out of this narrow-band siding, another sharp drop would occur. What it means. That the three-month forward dollar rates are coming under pressure again. The market expects another interest rate cut. This could lead to a weakening of the dollar. I note that forward rates on 2-year and 10-year government bonds are already falling. They are around 1.3%. Which tells me that maybe not in the short term, in the next 2-3 years the market can expect another dollar cut in interest rates.
TVC:US03M
by meszaros
5
US03MY 3 month YieldThe market has been tanking since the last Fed meeting, now Powell is hinting at another rate cut in Oct. The rate cut is already priced in now, and they're starting to price in another one for Dec or Jan. I'm beginning to think that Trump wants rate cuts more than he wants a China trade deal since his businesses are all interest rate sensitive, and he's leveraging China tariffs to get what he wants.... zero interest rates. So I'm thinking maybe a rally on rate cut talks (Powell speaks a couple more time next week), tank on China deal fail, pump towards Fed meeting for the actual rate cut, tank on the Dot Plot, etc... In other words, some major whipsaw at the top of the market, as one would expect at ATH before a recession. If China does actually sign a deal, expect super pumptardedness to ATH. Either way, I don't think the market tanks until next year when libtards elect a commie as president.
TVC:US03MY
by hungry_hippo
3 Month Treasury Yield Is Projecting The Next Easing Cycle.The US Government Bond 3 Month Yield Is falling ahead of any official rate cut by Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Board. This effectively tells us the market is pricing in a rate cut being announced at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30 2019. This is more significant than most traders realise. It has become common place on Wall Street to celebrate rate cuts over the last decade since the financial crisis, after all easy money policy means more cash flowing into the stock market, and this is generally the case except if it comes directly after a tightening cycle in the face of a recession. But, I hear you say, how can the tightening cycle be over and a new recession beginning if we have only managed to reach a diminutive 2.25% Fed Funds Rate? Well the answer is simple, the interest rate is not what matters, what matters is the economies ability to service that debt load, and right now 2.25% is all the American economy can withstand. This chart depicts the interest rate and shows where our ability to service that debt lies helping us to understand where the tightening cycle ends and the easing cycle begins. Once you understand this it becomes clear that the economic recovery, lackluster expansion, and good times have all come to an apex and the tide is now turning as the American economy struggles with its debt load at these interest rate levels. As the American economy continues to weaken falsely masked by low unemployment levels (labor force participation rate is at all time lows) and corporate debt starts showing signs of cracking we will experience an easing cycle in which the Fed will take rates below the zero lower bound into negative territory in order to stimulate the economy with, you guessed it, even more debt. The next recession is potentially right around the corner.
TVC:US03MY
by Markster
Powell scared of the fallout of 2019-2020 economic crashThe fed has been holding out on rate hikes and has kept the status quo ever since the return of volatility back in October 2018. The FED has kept citing the economy as strong, yet they kept interest rates flat instead of raising them. They are now going to decrease rates with a maxed out balanced sheet showing they have no confidence in the current strength of the economy (built purely based on credit and debt) and that the market is so inflated due to the enormous amount of debt that it cannot even sustain a rate of 2.5%. With all other factors taken into account, if the market is faltering at 2.5%, and continuing to show signs of weakness, The FED has no other choice but to do so and with its balance sheet loaded to the brim, the subsequent shitstorm that this will unleash will be of epic proportion. I expect interest rates to crater following the stock market. Could be at any time within the next 6-8 months most likely, depending on how fast the economy softens and how rapidly the global economic situation deteriorates.
TVC:US03MYShort
by MysteriousPersian
Found the best crypto currency to invest in. 500.000% ROI in 3Y:D Let's go to 10% so everyone closes their "investments" and crash the market. Down down down #2019XXIthCenturyRecession The economy is too slow changing thought, I want to laugh now and say I was right now don't want to wait years :( Ripple TRON etc are nothing! Even 5% would make every one calm down and stop borrowing truck loads to buy dreaming they are the next Warren Buffet. But actually wtf near flat interest rates, what do banks charge? This is broken, borrow 1 billion buy whatever bond take 3% let's say, pay back 1 billion + 1% keep the 2% (20 million).
TVC:US03MYLong
by MrRenev