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US Government Bonds 5 YR Yield

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US05Y trade ideas

3 Month Bill Drops To 5.3%In this video, it was difficult to explain everything -- The first thing we look at is the 3-month bill the price of this bond -- Is set to drop as of this writing Later the price will be baked into the market -- In about 4 days from now This is very important to understand -- Because the financial market is backed by Bonds -- Once you understand bonds then you will learn How you can well profit from this type of market psychology -- Watch this video to learn more -- Disclaimer: Do not buy or sell what i tell you to buy or sell do your own research before you trade This is not financial advice -- To learn more about this topic rocket boost this article
TVC:US05YEducation
by lubosi
5-year US Treasury Yield Working with Long-Term and Medium-Term In the previous Weekly Market Insight, I directed the technical spotlight to a long-term harmonic equivalent AB=CD bullish structure on the 5-year US Treasury yield weekly chart in a market trending higher since August 2020. The AB=CD zone, as you can see, has offered this market a technical floor since mid-March, denoted by the 100% projection at 3.243%. What’s interesting, though, is on the daily timeframe we can see that the reaction from the weekly AB=CD floor has carved out a daily equivalent AB=CD bearish pattern at 3.757%. This, coupled with Wednesday’s bearish Shooting Star candle pattern and nearby dynamic resistance derived from the 200-day simple moving average at 3.700%, could be enough to motivate a downside move this week to test at least the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios (derived from legs A-D) at 3.558% and 3.437%, respectively.
TVC:US05YShort
by Aaron-Hill
Rates Obsession - a pro interest rates set-up on TradingView Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident. However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed funds pricing, could increased pricing result in a big move in the USD and NAS100? In the video, we look at how we can look at the fed funds curve and understand ‘what is priced in’ – we look at how to measure the degree of cuts priced in for a specific period of time, and how to look at implied volatility in bond markets – and, why it is important for FX and index traders? Interest rates and short-term US Treasury bonds are the first derivative and so many markets take their direction from these inputs - hopefully, this gives some understanding of how you can use TradingView more effectively to assess these inputs.
TVC:US05YEducation
by Pepperstone
4
what do you think about 5 years breakeven ratehi all as you know this will efect directly on crypto and because of this i did this analysis so i think it will drop to the red area what do you think ? The information provided on this Page does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. this page does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions
TVC:US05YShort
by expay24
US05Y : Still standingIt all seems that the 30s, 10s and 07s had all fallen below the EFFR. Now, it is the turn of the 05s. But I think it should also FALL soon. The implication? Looks like the Fed rate hike is coming to an END. If there is a further hike of 50bps next month as ANTICIPATED, this would potentially put ALL the yield curve below the EFFR. And that might be a POLICY error that many are saying the Fed is committing. The Dollar will likely FALL. The Euro will likely rise. Of course, this rise is subject to the ongoing WAR in Ukraine. If it does not stop by the 2Q2023, we shall see what is in store for the entire EZ. The EZ budget is already stretch to the limit because of the policy of 'energy suicide'. It things continue as it is, the EU economy will completely collapse. Industry will shutdown, euro in free fall, inflation and debt will rise. Good luck. And have a nice weekend :) P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
TVC:US05Y
by i_am_siew
More upside for Treasury Yields The treasury yields have been in a decline for many decades, on the other side we have a very unique situation in the equity market. We have over evaluations in many markets, especially in the tech sector that was fueled by the billions of dollars pumped into our economy during he pandemic. The interest rates were heavily suppressed and this country experienced the lowest multi-decade interest rate environment in history. Like a charged spring it was ready to burst; we can see the bottom being reached in August of 2020 as everyone rushed to buy, refinance, take loans, buy cars and borrow more debt with the assistance of the stimulus payments. Of course this caused inflation to go through the roof. Looking at the chart from an Elliot Wave perspective, keeping it simple and clean to understand, we can see an incomplete sequence with a beautiful extended 3rd wave, that is currently in progress of finishing wave "v" of the "(3)". I then expect a sizable 3 waves or triangle pullback down for wave "(4)". After the wave (4) pullback the sequence will still look incomplete and I will expect another wave (5) to the upside and into 2023. This will surely way heavily on mortgage lenders, those looking to buy a home, auto, or take out any new debt. Suddenly a 5% rate on US05Y becomes realistic. I expect other US treasury bonds like the 2, 10, 20, 30 year to rise and have similar wave structure as well.
TVC:US05YLong
by Elliot618
Future interest payments will skyrocketThis shows expected interest payments as a moving average divergence around current interest payments which acts as a moving average that is delayed by one to two years. Anyways, the current "future" interest payments as calculated by the US05Y yield have never had a larger divergence from current payments. It is expected that in one to two years, US interest payments on the national debt will be more than 30% of tax receipts (see FRED:A091RC1Q027SBEA/FRED:W006RC1Q027SBEA)
TVC:US05Y
by rrmhearts
Good day to as any to welcome the next recession- yield curvesThe US5Y looks ready to break above the US10Y rate for bonds , signaling an inversion of the yield curve, the number one precursor to each recession in the US. The 10 year is sitting 3/1000 of a percent higher right now. When they cross I expect the market to turn red today. The breakout of the US10Y from its cup and handle pattern dating back to June 2019 marked the top of the bull run, and when it backtested and bounced up the selling accelerated. You can learn a lot comparing the US10Y and the SPY or QQQ and how they relate. Anyways, US10Y killed the bull, maybe now it causes a recession and brings back the bears. Happy trading!
TVC:US05YShort
by BrianVS
Visualizing Yield InversionWhen investors have a poor outlook for the economy, what do they do? They buy the longest term debt they can because it's one of the ways to price in the uncertainty of "right now" into the long term. Therefore, rational actors would do something like this: Buy 30 year treasuries. Buying ensues, yield goes down, price goes up. Eventually 20 year yield becomes greater than 30, as described in purple. Right now for example, you'd get about 3% more yield buying the 20 year VERSUS the 30 year (note: relative yield, not nominal yield), giving us a purple line of 0.968. The teal line (1.0) is where the relative yields are inverted if the price is below this line. Short term debt pays more than long term debt under this line, which is usually not the case and signals that things are awry. Now simply repeat this cycle until the rational short term outlook is priced into all irrationally priced long term treasuries. Prices are too low, therefore yields are too high, and rational actors begin buying them. Prices go up, yields go down. Next up, we have 20Y/10Y (red) at 1.235, which is intriguingly lagging behind the shorter term inversions of 10Y/5Y and 5Y/2Y. If anyone knows why, I would be interested to know! I'm not exactly an expert on debt. Eventually this cycle repeats until the ratio of short term yields are all very close to long term yields. These conditions always precede a recession, which, by the way, is NOT a well defined term. A recession simply describes "a general decline in economic activity". Not very scientific, is it? Economists utilize a wide range of data to attempt to foresee a recession, yet the outcome is inevitable and uncontrollable. As history shows, any attempt to control the economy and avoid recession (1930s, 1970s) often make things much worse than had policy makers simply let the storm pass initially. I like to use ratios of yields. Some people subtract the yield of one from the other, which is fine too. I think a ratioized signal is much more pure as ratios rule the world around us. Not only that, given that we're monitoring multiple relative yields, we can get a good overall picture of the current landscape. Unfortunately there's not much history for the longer term instruments, though as I believe the 30 year has been around for atleast 50 years but only has a few years of TradingView data. Hopefully the illustrations on this chart along with relative yields help you visualize some of what's happening. I keep this chart of relative yields up ALL the time in a tab! If you have any feedback or comments, I would appreciate it. Good luck and hedge your bets! Quick note: In March 2020 not only did the FED setup new centralized repo facilities directly (reverse repo, unprecedented, it's ILLEGAL by the way) and at the same time, engaged in "QE Infinity". In essence there's more avenues at which they are "forced" to buy things that nobody wants. Albeit, they buy it at about market price, assume that's the right price and that they are somehow protecting the economy by pricing in bankruptcy in one asset class and spreading it to the rest of the economy. Belligerent and thoughtless, what more could you want? At the same time, they've sucked a lot of excess cash out of the system once again by offering banks an interest rate of 0.05% for their cash in exchange for some FED junk assets. So suddenly banks are bagholding assets nobody wanted, in order to get interest on their cash, genius huh? OH yeah, and banks are SHORTING those assets on the open market! Effectively making the cash tend towards zero value (the real contract value of those assets which were originally exchanged). Next time something goes wrong, they will unload this ~1.5T diaper of dollars directly into our faces, probably sooner than later, causing more inflation.
TVC:US05Y
by fringe_chartist