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US10Y trade ideas

US 10Y TREASURY: eyes FOMC projections The US inflation data were posted during the previous week, showing that the inflation continues to slow down, with 0,1% in May. Also, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data are showing decreasing inflation expectations for this year at 5,1%, from previously posted 6,6%, while the five year expectation eased to the level of 4,2%. However, the unrest on markets was imposed by new Middle East tensions, which were also reflected in the Treasury yields during the previous week. The 10Y yields started the week at 4,5%, and closed it at 4,4%. The lowest weekly level was at 4,3% on Friday, but the Middle East unrest pushed the yields toward the 4,4%. The week ahead brings the FOMC meeting and Feds macro projections, which is scheduled for Wednesday, June 18th. It is widely expected that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at this meeting, while the odds are increased for a rate cut in September. Certainly, the day of the FOMC meeting will bring some increased volatility, considering investors sensitivity to the Fed's narrative and especially projections. The next supporting level for the 10Y yields stands at 4,2%. However, considering the current unstable geopolitical scene as well as the FOMC meeting, there is also an equal probability for 10Y yields to test higher grounds, around the 4,5% level, but not higher from it.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
10 YEAR US GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD . the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025) The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth. The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced. Key Drivers and Outlook Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation. Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate. Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky. Conclusion The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance. The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends. Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 16-20 (UPDATED DAILY) US 10Y TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK JUN 16-20 (UPDATED DAILY) Overnight U.S. Treasuries ended the week lower as rising energy prices sparked inflation concerns, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Crude oil surged $5.12 (7.5%) to $73.16/bbl, up 13.3% weekly, following Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran’s retaliatory missile attack, raising fears of further escalation. Treasuries began the day higher but steadily declined, pushing the 10-year yield above its 50-day moving average (4.374%), though it dropped nine basis points for the week. Economic Releases for the Week www.myfxbook.com Technical Outlook Monthly We continue to trade within the previous month’s range with no clear direction. Range 4.63% -4.12% Weekly Technically hard to read were the market would go with all the geopolitical noise. Inflation was the concern reason why the yield went higher after the Israel-Iran issue due to surge in oil. This week, we might be able to see the direction after the FOMC on Thursday. So meantime I will hold my projection. Daily Same as weekly outlook. Will watch FOMC first.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US10Ythe US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025) The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth. The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced. Key Drivers and Outlook Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation. Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate. Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky. Conclusion The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance. The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends. Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
US10Y UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD.the US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.39%-4.5%,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025) The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth. The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced. Key Drivers and Outlook Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation. Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate. Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky. Conclusion The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance. The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends. Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
TVC:US10Y
by Shavyfxhub
10 year united states government bond yieldthe US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) stands at 4.435% newyork session,The 10-year yield is a key benchmark for long-term interest rates in the United States and is closely watched by investors as an indicator of market sentiment regarding economic growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. The yield has been rising recently, reflecting investor concerns about US fiscal policy, inflation, and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (June 2025) The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 2025 meeting. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, as the Fed continues its cautious, data-dependent approach amid persistent inflation and moderate economic growth. The Fed’s latest “dot plot” and projections indicate that two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still possible by the end of 2025, but expectations for cuts in 2026 and beyond have been reduced. Key Drivers and Outlook Yield Movements: The 10-year yield has climbed amid concerns about US fiscal deficits, credit rating downgrades, and the impact of tariffs and trade policy on inflation. Fed’s Tone: The FOMC statement and projections reflect ongoing stagflationary pressures—slower growth, persistent inflation, and a slightly rising unemployment rate. Market Expectations: Markets are pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, most likely in September and December, but nearly half of Fed officials see little or no room for cuts in 2025 if inflation remains sticky. Conclusion The US 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated as markets weigh fiscal risks, inflation, and the Fed’s cautious stance. The Fed is holding rates steady but signaling that two rate cuts remain possible in 2025, with future moves highly dependent on incoming data, especially inflation and labor market trends. Investors should expect continued yield volatility as economic and policy uncertainties persist.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
Recession delayed like in the past (higher yield)yield inverted, usually a signal for recession, but there is a case that the recession delayed It's during the recession of 1992, 2009, and now it should happen this year, but the chance has dropped from 70% to 30% delayed recession moght be delayed for 4 year or until yield making higher high after making higher high will see recession within 2 years, rest for 1 year then bottomed for 2 years So we need to see 1. higher high 10-year yield in 2026-2027 2. recession within 2 years (2028-2029) 3. Resting for 1 year (2030) 4. bottomed yield for 2 years (2031-2032)
TVC:US10YLong
by salvanost
US10Y Big downside potentialThe U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been since last week on a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound, consistently rising since the April 04 Low (Support 1). The presence of the Lower Highs trend-line just above it, puts strong selling pressure long-term. As a result, either now or upon a Lower Highs contact, we expect the US10Y to turn bearish and Target 3.860% (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
US10Y (10-Year Treasury Yield) Weekly TF 2025 📊 Chart Context Current Yield: \~4.50% Current Structure: Consolidation below major Fibonacci resistance, with multiple breakout and breakdown paths marked by confluence zones. 📉 Key Technical Observations Bullish Scenario – Yield Rally (Rate Hike Cycle / Inflation Surprise) TP1 (5.0%): 0.00% Fib level, psychological resistance. TP2 (6.10%): 38.2% Fib + -27% extension zone. TP3 (7.70%–7.91%): Major Fib confluence (-61.8% & 48.60% projection) Bearish Scenario – Yield Drop (Rate Cuts / Recession) Support 1 (3.91%): 23.6% Fib retracement, key structural demand. Support 2 (3.22%): 38.2% retracement Support 3 (2.74%): 48.6% Support 4 (2.12%): 61.8% Support 5 (1.33%): 78.6% Forecast Scenarios (Based on Arrow Colors & Pathways): Red Boxes & Zones: Critical Resistance / Reaction Zones These are strong confluence levels that may trigger pullbacks before continuation. Green Arrows – Bullish Projection with Pullbacks Scenario A: Price may rally toward the 5.0% TP1 zone but experience a temporary pullback before continuing toward the 6.10% TP2 zone. Scenario B: After a short-term correction near 6.10%, if bullish momentum sustains, yield may spike toward the 7.70–7.91% TP3 zone. These movements reflect a stair-step advance with corrective legs between key levels — bullish macro outlook with intermittent risk events. Pink Arrows – Bearish Pullbacks & Correction Phases: Scenario A: Initial rejection from current zone (~4.5%) may send yields down to the 3.91% support confluence. Scenario B: If support at 3.91% fails, yields may further retrace to 3.22% or 2.74%, activating the lower fib retracement zones. After stabilizing in these zones, a rebound may begin and realign with the broader bullish structure. These pink arrows suggest that even in bullish macro cycles, the market may correct deeply before resuming its ascent. Macro & Fundamental Context: 1.Fed Pivot Dynamics: With inflation cooling and unemployment ticking higher, markets price in possible Fed rate cuts by late 2025. 2.Bond Demand Outlook: Recession fears and de-risking scenarios trigger massive flows into long-term Treasuries, pulling yields lower. 3.Global Liquidity Conditions: Lower yields = increased liquidity = favorable conditions for crypto, gold, and risk assets. 4.Hawkish Risk: Any oil shock or CPI surprise can pause or reverse easing expectations, pushing yields up. Effects on Gold & Crypto (as scenarios play out): ↗ If US10Y Yields RISE to 6% or 7.7% (TP2/TP3) * Gold: Likely to suffer due to rising real yields; institutional demand weakens. * Crypto: Bearish; risk assets sell off amid higher opportunity cost and tighter liquidity. * Dollar (DXY): May strengthen, applying more pressure on gold & crypto. * Strategy: Favor defensive positioning. Look for shorting rallies or hedge exposures in BTC, ETH, and high-beta alts. ↘ If US10Y Yields FALL toward 3.2% to 2.1% (Support 2–4): * Gold: Bullish. Lower yields reduce holding costs and boost safe-haven appeal. * Crypto: Bullish. Liquidity rotation into high-risk assets often follows easing cycles. * DXY: Likely to weaken, further supporting BTC and altcoins. * Strategy: Look to accumulate crypto during dips. Gold may offer breakout opportunities. Rangebound Near 4.5% (Current Zone): * Gold: Mixed; capped upside until clear direction emerges. * Crypto: Ranges or whipsaws. Watch for breakout signals from BTC.D and TOTAL3. * Strategy: Stay cautious. Monitor DXY and macro events for confirmation. Related Reference Charts TOTAL3 – Altcoin Market Cap Weekly BTC.D – Bitcoin Dominance Weekly
TVC:US10YLong
by BitonGroup
US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 9-13(JUNE 9 UPDATE) OvernUS 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 9-13 (JUNE 9 UPDATE) Overnight U.S. Treasuries declined following a stronger-than-expected May employment report, signaling a robust labor market and sustained economic growth, reducing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. Investors sold across the yield curve, with the belly experiencing the most pressure. Meanwhile, the stock market rallied, likely benefiting from portfolio rebalancing from bonds to equities. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 99.18, reflecting the positive data and higher rates. High Impact News this Week www.myfxbook.com Technical Sometime last week I mentioned this “I expect market to reach 4.47% yesterday’s high and making a bold call of 4.539% - 4.541% for the week. This is just a probability based on the price patterns I’m seeing. Resistance at 4.41% and 4.387% And I also mentioned last Friday the heavy news days like NFP or CPI creates moves that are unexpected and would rather stay away. As expected those levels we mentioned were closed through. Bias I am expecting previous week high of 4.51% to be targeted. For today if the candle closes through 4.514% I am looking at 4.541 as the next daily target. Wednesday could be the catalyst day when CPI is due to be released along with inflation rate. Another day to stay off for me. DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
4
US 10Y TREASURY: will the Fed cut?The jobs market data were in the spotlight of investors during the previous week. The major impact came from the non-farm payrolls posted on Friday, which was better than anticipated with 139K new jobs added. The jobs market in the US continues to hold strongly, which impacts investors anticipation of potential Fed's rate cut during the course of this year. Namely, as the Fed has a dual mandate of keeping inflation at targeted level and exercising full employment, the stronger jobs market might impact Fed's decision to hold reference interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time. The CME FedWatch tool is currently anticipating 100% odds that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at their June meeting. The FOMC June meeting is scheduled for 17th-18th. The jobs data triggered a strong reaction on the US Treasury market. The 10Y US benchmark yields were pushed to the upside on Friday, from 4,32% on Thursday up to 4,50% on Friday. Usually, after such a strong spike in prices or yields on the market, there is time when the market will consolidate, in which sense, there is a probability that yields will ease to some extent during the week ahead. Still, the market nervousness might continue to the lower extent until the FOMC meeting.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2-6, 2025US 10 YEAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2-6, 2025 Overnight, U.S. Treasuries remained stable, with shorter-dated maturities slightly outperforming longer ones. Mixed economic data included stronger-than-expected April personal income, weaker-than-expected May Chicago PMI, and concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted stalled talks, while President Trump expressed frustration but optimism for resolution with President Xi. This supported stock market stabilization, with Treasury market stability aided by month-end rebalancing. The U.S. Dollar Index held steady at 99.33. This week’s US economic calendar Monday, June 2, 2025 • 9:45 AM: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May, Final) • 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) • 10:00 AM: Construction Spending (April) • 10:15 AM: Fed’s Logan speaks at Eleventh District Banking Conference • 12:45 PM: Fed’s Goolsbee speaks Tuesday, June 3, 2025 • 10:00 AM: Factory Orders (April) • 10:00 AM: JOLTS Job Openings (April) • 1:00 PM: Treasury Auction: 3-Year Note Wednesday, June 4, 2025 • 7:00 AM: MBA Mortgage Applications Index • 8:15 AM: ADP Employment Change (May) • 10:00 AM: ISM Services PMI (May) • 10:00 AM: U.S. Trade Balance (April) • 10:30 AM: EIA Crude Oil Inventories • 1:00 PM: Treasury Auction: 10-Year Note Thursday, June 5, 2025 • 8:30 AM: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims • 10:30 AM: EIA Natural Gas Inventories Friday, June 6, 2025 • 8:30 AM: Nonfarm Payrolls (May) • 8:30 AM: Unemployment Rate (May) • 8:30 AM: Average Hourly Earnings (May) • 3:00 PM: Consumer Credit (April) Technical Monthly The month of May ended closing inside Aprils range but taking note of the April highs sweep of 4.59%. my current support for June would be previous month’s high of 4.627% and old monthly high of 4.66%. Resistance would be 4.125% and old low of 3.86%. Weekly Weekly, I’m expecting previous week’s low of 4.387% sweep but also taking note of a possible resistance within the range of 4.39-4.332. Daily I’m anticipating a sweep of Fridays low of 4.387% while taking note of prev. day high of 4.442% also our target last Friday of 4.418 was met. DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US 10Y TREASURY: eased inflation expectationsTrade tariffs continue to gain a lot of investors attention, but they are slowly turning to actual macro data and inflation expectations in the future period. Uncertainty over the future impact of imposed trade tariffs of the US Administration is still present, but it becomes evident that investors are becoming tired of reactions on tweets, and are much more switching attention to actual data. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final data for May, posted during the previous week, showed moderately decreased inflation expectations for the period of next five years. Data showed that US consumers are expecting five years inflation at the level of 4,2%, which was also below market estimate of 4,6%. The 10Y US Treasury yields eased a bit during the previous week, currently testing the 4,4% level. The starting weekly point was at 4,53%. Considering the relatively significant drop during the week, there is some probability for the short reversal during the week ahead, at least till the level of 4,5%. It should also be considered that the week ahead macro data will put in focus jobs data and NFP, which might imply a bit higher volatility.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y Technical Outlook for the Week May 26-30, 2025 US 10Y Technical Outlook for the Week May 26-30, 2025 Market Recap: Week Ending Friday, May 23, 2025 U.S. Treasuries surged early after President Trump’s X post proposing a 50% tariff on the EU, citing stalled trade talks, sparking a flight-to-safety amid growth concerns and tariff uncertainty. The 10-year note yield fell from 4.54% to 4.45%, and the 30-year bond yield dropped from 5.04% to 4.98%. Markets stabilized after a White House official clarified to CNBC that the remark was negotiating leverage, with no actions implemented. Treasury Secretary Bessent, in a Bloomberg TV interview, downplayed rising yields, suggesting they reflect stronger growth expectations tied to the reconciliation bill. Treasuries ended the holiday-shortened week positively, with yields lower across the curve. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.8% to 99.13. Economic Calendar www.myfxbook.com The following high-impact U.S. news events are expected to influence financial markets during the period of May 26–30, 2025: Tuesday, May 27, 2025, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index will be released at 10:00 AM EST. This index measures consumer sentiment, which significantly impacts USD currency pairs and shapes market expectations for consumer spending and economic growth. Wednesday, May 28, 2025, the Federal Reserve will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 PM EST. These minutes provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and interest rate outlook, significantly influencing USD valuation and overall market sentiment. Thursday, May 29, 2025, two key economic indicators will be published. At 8:30 AM EST, the second estimate of Q1 GDP growth will be released, serving as a vital measure of economic health and influencing investor confidence and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Simultaneously, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported, reflecting labor market conditions and impacting USD strength and the broader economic outlook. Friday, May 30, 2025, several significant reports will be released. At 8:30 AM EST, the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, will be published, driving expectations for interest rate decisions and significantly affecting USD and financial markets. At 9:45 AM EST, the Chicago PMI for May will provide insights into regional manufacturing activity, influencing market sentiment. Finally, at 10:00 AM EST, the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will be released, shaping expectations for consumer spending and impacting USD currency pairs. Technical Weekly Following my technical rule I’m expecting previous week low of 4.43% to be targeted while watching 4.382%-4.412% as a possible bounce zone. Daily For daily targets I’m watching 4.448% as a possible target of the day and the previous week low of 4.43%. It is also good to note that we are on a possible zone where yield could bounce back. On the high side look at 4.541% Friday high as a possible support. Watch out for possible news that could affect the market. DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
$US10Y and $DXY Divergence and correlation breakdownRecent weeks we might have missed some underlying churn in the market dynamics. Recently there has been a clear visible divergence in TVC:US10Y and TVC:DXY in midst of all the noise about the tariffs. Usually with rising TVC:US10Y yield the US Dollar index TVC:DXY rises with it as visible in the chart below. In this blog we have been following the downward slopping channel in the TVC:US10Y and the yield has remained within this tight range of the channel. In our last blog on 02 May 25 we called for a lower TVC:US10Y @ 4%. Seems that call was incorrect and I was wrong. But in this space, we have been asking for a lower $DXY. The TVC:DXY chart is making lower highs and lower lows and in a verge of a breakdown. So we have higher TVC:US10Y which is capped to the upside @ 4.6% visible from the upper end of the downward slopping channel and we have TVC:DXY making lower lows but the correlation is broken in the recent weeks as shown in the daily chart below. This kind of unpredictable market behavior it’s difficult to forecast equity market direction. TVC:US10Y seems to create headwind for equities but the lower TVC:DXY is good for risk assets like CRYPTOCAP:BTC , SP:SPX and $QQQ. Hence this push and pull will keep the markets range bound for now. Verdict : TVC:US10Y currently at top of the range, downside more likely ; TVC:DXY continues to struggle and in penalty box.
TVC:US10Y
by RabishankarBiswal
US 10Y TREASURY: heading higherTrade tariffs once again shaped market sentiment during the previous week. The US Administration announced the intent for introduction of 50% tariffs on goods imported from the European Union, which should become effective from 1st July this year. Market immediately reacted to this news, bringing US equities lower, and surging US treasuries. Another news that hit the market and impacted negatively US yields was that the US House of Representatives adopted a tax and spending bill, which is expected to add trillions of US Dollars to the US debt, as analysts are noting. The US has already been downgraded twice by rating agencies, last week by Moody’s, due to high concerns over the sustainability of the US debt. The 10Y US benchmark reached the highest weekly value at 4,62%, but eased as of the end of the week to the level of 4,50%. This type of swings in the Treasury yields will most probably continue in the coming period. The market is currently extremely sensitive to fundamentals and any news regarding trade tariffs.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Technical Breakdown – Post-Moody’s DowngradeMoody’s has downgraded the US credit rating for the first time since 2011, citing rising debt levels and long-term fiscal challenges. This move sends a clear warning signal about America’s fiscal path and adds fresh uncertainty to markets already navigating interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks. Focus on the US 10-Year Treasury Yield as the market’s pulse on sovereign risk, inflation expectations, and future borrowing costs. Tracking its medium-term trend will provide crucial clues on market sentiment and risk appetite. Medium-Term Market Analysis (6-12 Months) 1. Structural Fiscal Risks This downgrade highlights growing concerns over the US debt trajectory and political gridlock around spending and debt ceilings. It’s less about an immediate crisis, more about long-term sustainability. 2. Rising Yields and Market Volatility The 10-year Treasury yield could move higher, beyond 4.60% we could see rates possibly testing previous resistance of 4.80% (Jan 2025) or 5.00% (Oct 2023). Higher yields mean increased borrowing costs, which can pressure interest-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate and add volatility to equities. 3. Federal Reserve’s Tough Balancing Act With bond yields edging up, the Fed faces a dilemma: delaying cuts further could risk inflation climbing higher. However, this downgrade raises the likelihood that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer than many investors expect. 4. Dollar and Capital Flow Shifts While a credit downgrade may initially pressure the US dollar, its safe-haven status remains strong. Global capital could increasingly look to alternatives like emerging markets or gold, leading to shifts in international financial flows. Perspective While Moody’s downgrade is a serious signal, it’s important to consider: 1) Political Leverage: Sometimes, rating agencies’ decisions can influence political negotiations. This downgrade may add pressure on US lawmakers to reach fiscal compromises. It’s a tool, not necessarily a verdict. 2) US Dollar & Debt Demand Resilience: Despite concerns, US Treasury securities remain the world’s primary safe asset, with global demand still robust. This could temper yield spikes and limit fallout. Some could view the downgrade as “priced in” to a degree, given ongoing debt ceiling battles and past political brinkmanship. If true, markets may react less dramatically than feared. Watch US 10-Year Yield: Key indicator to watch for shifts in risk sentiment and inflation expectations. Equities: Prepare for increased volatility; consider defensive sectors and value plays. Credit Markets: Monitor for widening spreads as risk aversion grows. Policy Signals: Fed communications and US political developments will be critical catalysts. This Moody’s downgrade isn’t just a headline, it’s a medium-term signal to recalibrate risk and position for a more uncertain fiscal backdrop.
TVC:US10Y
by JinDao_Tai
11
US GOVERMENT 10 YEAR BOND YIELD US10Y Among the US Treasury bond yields—2-year (US02Y), 10-year (US10Y), and 30-year (US30Y)—the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) generally reflects the strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) most closely. Explanation: The US10Y yield is widely followed by currency traders and investors as a key indicator of market sentiment, interest rate expectations, and economic outlook. It balances short-term monetary policy effects and long-term growth/inflation expectations, making it a comprehensive gauge for the dollar's strength. The correlation between the US10Y yield and the DXY is strong and positive: when the 10-year yield rises, the dollar typically strengthens, and when it falls, the dollar tends to weaken. This relationship is more consistent than with the 2-year or 30-year yields. The 2-year yield (US02Y) is more sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes and short-term rate expectations. While it influences the dollar, its impact is often more volatile and tied to immediate monetary policy shifts rather than broader economic trends. The 30-year yield (US30Y) reflects long-term inflation and growth expectations but tends to be less reactive to short- and medium-term market dynamics that drive currency movements. It has a weaker and less direct correlation with the DXY compared to the 10-year yield. Recent market observations (early 2025) show that the US10Y yield movements often lead or move in tandem with the DXY, while divergences can occur but are exceptions rather than the rule. Summary Table Bond Yield Correlation with DXY Notes US 2-Year (US02Y) Moderate Sensitive to Fed policy, more short-term focused US 10-Year (US10Y) Strong Reflects medium-term economic outlook, best DXY proxy US 30-Year (US30Y) Weak to Moderate Long-term outlook, less impact on short-term DXY moves Conclusion The 10-year US Treasury yield (US10Y) is the best indicator among the three for reflecting the strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY) due to its balanced sensitivity to both monetary policy and broader economic conditions. #DOLLAR #US #GOLD
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub
The break-up (a must-watch chart)One of the most important—and unusual—developments in the market right now is the combination of rising US bond yields and a falling US dollar. Normally, when bond yields go up, the dollar strengthens. It's similar to a high-interest bank account: if you can earn more by holding US assets, global investors tend to pile in, increasing demand for the dollar. But that’s not what we’re seeing today. Instead, yields are rising while the dollar weakens—something that’s more often associated with emerging markets facing debt concerns. It signals a deeper issue: despite higher returns on offer, investors are becoming wary of the underlying fundamentals. In short, **America’s massive debt load and relentless money printing may be starting to catch up—**even with the world’s reserve currency. And the market is beginning to take notice. This is important to all asset classes moving forward. Keep your eyes peeled on it.
TVC:US10Y
by Sam_Eder
25
US 10Y OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK MAY 19-23 (UPDATED DAILY)US 10y Treasury Outlook for the Week May 19-23,2025 May 19, 2025 Friday Fundamental Recap U.S. Treasuries rose, with the 30-yr yield nearing its mid-January peak (5.005%). Gains followed Japan’s Q1 GDP contraction (-0.2%; expected -0.1%) and a strong eurozone trade surplus (EUR36.8 bln; expected EUR17.5 bln). Weak U.S. data—April Housing Starts and May Consumer Sentiment—limited gains and Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing $36 trillion debt, pushed yields higher. 2025 Downgrade (Moody’s, May 16, 2025): • Immediate Reaction: Treasury yields rose after the downgrade, with 2-year Treasury yields accelerating their climb. This reflects investor demands for higher risk premiums due to perceived fiscal risks. • Bond Prices: Higher yields correspond to lower bond prices, as investors sell off Treasuries to account for increased risk. The downgrade could lead to further price declines, especially for longer-dated bonds, if yields continue to rise. • Market Implications: Higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government may exacerbate debt concerns, potentially leading to more volatility. Posts on X indicate expectations of “knee-jerk volatility” and a “risk-off tilt,” suggesting short-term selling pressure on Treasuries. • Longer-Term Outlook: If investors rotate to defensive assets (e.g., gold), Treasury demand may weaken further, pushing yields higher. However, Treasuries remain the most liquid and relatively safe asset globally, which could limit the extent of yield spikes. US Economic Calendar for the week This week's high impact economic news will come on Thursday and Friday while the rest of the week are full of Fed speakers schedules www.myfxbook.com Technical Outlook Monthly We are still trading within the April range and the closest level I could see as draw on yield is 4.59% if the weakness in price continues. Weekly Im a bit uncertain of the target for the week provided that we had a big news on credit down grade. If price continues to deteriorate with the news take note of previous week’s high of 4.548% to the monthly range high of 4.59% as a possible target. If market shrugs of the news look at 4.39% to be targeted. Daily To recap what I mentioned last Friday… “Its also important to note that market might target the Daily Volume Imbalance starting at 4.412% to 4.382%. If yield closes below 4.382% chances are price could continue to rally further. Also note the fib levels for possible key reversal points. The news on US credit downgrade, it helped fuel the yield to rebound from our expected reversal zone. For today my bias is for yield to target previous day’s high of 4.497% if market decides to push the price lower on this news else still look at previous day low of 4.39% to 4.548% DISCLAIMMER: This technical analysis is based on historical chart data, which may not predict future market outcomes. Any insights or interpretations I provide are for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by Junmadayag
US 10Y TREASURY: US downgradeThere is no rest for US Treasuries. The minute the trade tensions between the US and China were settled, at least for the period of 90 days, a new storm hit the market throughout rising concerns over the sustainability of the US debt. At least as this sustainability is perceived by the rating agency Moody’s, which downgraded the US sovereign rating by one notch late Friday. This news had an negative impact on the investors sentiment, but the most volatility in the US Treasury yields occurred in an after-hours trading on Friday, when the news hit the market. Regardless of the news about US sovereign downgrade, the higher volatility was evident also during the previous week. The highest surprise came from the University of Michigan inflation expectations, which reached 7,3% for this year and 4,6% in a period of five years. This was higher from the previous estimate and certainly was a reflection of the imposed trade tariffs between the US and China. The highest weekly level of the 10Y US benchmark was 4,54%, however, yields are ending the week at the level of 4,44% in an after-hours trading on Friday. For the week ahead, there is no significant macro data scheduled for a release, however, the volatility might continue, especially on Monday. The reaction on a downgrade news might impose some increase in yields, until the market finds the new equilibrium level. On the opposite side some modest relaxation is also probable, around 4,0%-3,8% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX