H&S in US 10Y YieldH&S in US 10Y Yield, expecting downside as the neck line breakout today if it successfully closes below the neck line today in Daily TF.
US10Y trade ideas
US 10Y TREASURY: emerging inflation? Another end of the week brought not so positive news to the markets, so some higher volatility was evident. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment came as a surprise, with increased inflation expectations from US consumers. Data showed that the sentiment for this year inflation has increased to 5,0%, while a five year sentiment is at the level of 4,1%. These figures strongly impacted US equity markets, the price of gold while the 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields dropped to the level of 4,25%, from 4,4% where they were traded on Thursday.
Friday's move was the strong one, in which sense, we could expect that the market will use the start of the week ahead to digest data. There is a high possibility that yields will revert a bit, at least to test the 4,3% level for one more time. However, it should be considered that uncertainty on markets caused by trade tariffs and inflation expectations are high at the moment, which will continue to be main drivers of market sentiment in the future period. For the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data are set for a release, in which sense, volatility will most certainly continue.
US10Y H&S Reversal?This might be hopium.
For selfish reasons I'd like to see this 10Y come back down to earth.
Are longer term bonds really that bad of a buy?So many people I follow on X are very bearish the longer term bond cycle...claiming that the years of declining rates are over and that we are now in a new cycle of rising rates over the next 40-50 years. Even I have been a proponent of that language; writing up an idea on 3/31/2022 when rates were 2.326 and rising. But now it seems everyone is on that side of the boat which makes the contrarian view worth a look. Are longer term bonds really that bad of a buy right now?
I decided to look at it from a simplistic Ichimoku point of view...using a yearly bar chart. Yes a really, really long term chart because if we are talking about the next 40-50 years then it's worth looking at a very, very long term chart.
However when looking at this long term Ichimoku chart; nothing about this chart suggests we are in a new cycle. In fact, nothing about this chart is bullish rising rates and you would just be trying to call a bottom out of thin air.
One of the first indications of a change in sentiment for Ichimoku is getting the Tenkan Sen (red line) to cross over the Kijun Sen (orange line). Even with the strength in rates over the following 5 years we are no where close to getting a cross over of those two lines to occur. In addition, the lagging span (purple line) is still below price and the cloud and the cloud is still hugely red.
In short, nothing about this chart screams longer term bonds are a bad buy...getting the 10 year rate chart to move from bearish (where it stands now) to bullish in the very long term will in fact be a fairly large task IMO.
Therefore, I am following the projection of the red & orange lines and right now they are suggesting a "flattening" out period...perhaps these two lines move closer over the next 10-15 years and then something occurs to spike rates and causes the red line to cross over the orange but until then people are just calling a bottom.
Basically rates would need to spike again this year or next to well over 6% to get the lagging span above price & the cloud and to cause the red line to move to an upwards trend...then and only then would I change my above stance.
10-Year Treasury Yield Potential Short OpportunitiesThe 10-year Treasury yield recently failed at the critical resistance level of 4.38%, previously highlighted as a significant pivot. On the daily chart, the yield formation now resembles a potential head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, which would have profound implications if completed.
Immediate Supports: Crucial Support lies at 4.30, followed closely by 4.22 and 4.16. A breakdown through these levels would solidify a bearish reversal, targeting declines to the psychological levels at 4.00% and potentially down to 3.90%.
Yield Consequences: A substantial yield decline typically signals mounting recession fears, negatively affecting investor confidence, driving volatility (VIX) higher, and accelerating equity market losses.
US10Y - US03MY zoomed inBear Flag playing out. Zoomed in for easier viewing compared to old post.
Not financial advice.
US10Y - Will Donald Trumps Lower Interest Rates Come True?President Donald Trump late Wednesday criticized the Federal Reserve, urging the central bank to reduce interest rates, hours after it chose to leave borrowing rates unchanged.
He quotes “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S. Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, adding “Do the right thing.”
On Thursday, we witnessed manipulation to the downside, indicating that in the short term we could be in for higher yields, with 4.267% being the 1st point of interest.
Reference: abcnews.go.com
US10Y: 10-Year Treasury Yield – Safe Bet or Yield Trap?(1/9)
Good morning, everyone! ☀️ US10Y: 10-Year Treasury Yield – Safe Bet or Yield Trap?
With the 10-year yield at 4.358%, is it time to lock in safety or wait for better rates? Let’s break it down! 🔍
(2/9) – YIELD PERFORMANCE 📊
• Current Yield: 4.358% as of Mar 25, 2025 💰
• Historical Context: Above pandemic lows (~1-2%), below early 2000s (5-6%), per data 📏
• Sector Trend: Inverted yield curve signals caution, per economic reports 🌟
It’s a mixed bag—let’s see what’s cooking! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Safe Haven: U.S. Treasuries are risk-free ⏰
• Income Appeal: 4.358% yield draws income seekers 🎯
• Potential Upside: If rates fall, bond prices rise 🚀
Firm in safety, with growth potential! 🏦
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Inverted Yield Curve: 2-year yield higher, hinting at slowdown, per data 🌍
• Fed Outlook: Expected rate cuts later in 2025, per posts on X 📋
• Market Reaction: Investors balancing income with economic risks 💡
Navigating through uncertainty! 💪
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Interest Rate Risk: If rates rise, bond prices drop 🔍
• Inflation Risk: Erodes real returns if inflation outpaces yield 📉
• Opportunity Cost: Missing higher returns from stocks ❄️
It’s a trade-off—risks are real! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• Risk-Free: No default risk, backed by U.S. government 🥇
• Liquidity: Active market for trading, per data 📊
• Tax Benefits: Interest exempt from state, local taxes 🔧
Got solid foundations! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Interest rate and inflation risks, per economic reports 📉
• Opportunities: Capital gains from falling rates, diversification benefits 📈
Can it deliver both income and growth? 🤔
(8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢
US10Y at 4.358%—your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: Buy now, rates will fall soon 🐂
• Neutral: Hold, wait for more clarity ⚖️
• Bearish: Wait for higher yields or better opportunities 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
US10Y offers a steady yield with safety, but with an inverted curve, caution is advised. Gem or bust?
US 10yr Treasury Yields Press Against ResistanceThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just beneath the 4.34% resistance level, with price forming a tight ascending triangle just under this key level. Today’s pullback to 4.31% (-0.74%) suggests hesitation from bulls as momentum indicators turn mixed.
🔹 MACD is flat, showing a lack of directional conviction.
🔹 RSI sits at 47.94, neutral and non-committal.
🔹 Price remains sandwiched between the 50-day SMA (4.43%) and the 200-day SMA (4.22%).
A confirmed breakout above 4.34% could open the door for a run toward 4.50% or even 4.80%. Conversely, a drop below the rising trendline (~4.24%) would expose downside risk toward the 200-day SMA.
Watch for a catalyst (Fed commentary or inflation data) to break the deadlock.
-MW
US 10Y TREASURY: two rate cuts?The Fed held interest rates unchanged at their FOMC meeting during the previous week. On a positive side is that they still perceive two rate cuts during the course of this year, which would account for 0.5 percentage points further drop in US reference rates. Fed officials noted that there are arousing uncertainties related to moves from the US Administration which could impact the US economy to some extent. For the moment the forecast for the economic growth for this year was decreased by 0,4 pp to the level of 1,7%. Inflation expectations have turned to higher grounds than previously estimated.
During the first half of the week, the US 10Y Treasury benchmark reached the highest level at 4,33%, while it ended the week at 4,25%. At this point on charts, it doesn't look like the market gave up on testing the 4,30% levels, meaning that the market might modestly revert back toward the higher grounds. It should be noted that the PCE data are set for a release on Friday, next week, which increases probability of a higher volatility of US Treasury yields.
US 10-Year Yield Approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci RetracementThe US 10-year yield is approaching the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the 1981 highs to the Covid lows. I expect this level to act as a temporary support, with yields rebounding higher for a bit. This should coincide with a relief rally in equities.
The global markets have spoken: The trade war is on. Hello traders
This chart layout is not new.
See my original Idea from February 23rd.
The wrecking ball is not gaining momentum. It reached supersonic speed yesterday and shattered the illusion that all is well on the blue planet.
The United States of America has upended the Global order that took 80 years to establish after WWII and financial markets that are still dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic on some levels.
And all of this to soothe the ego of the Narcissist in Chief.
If you have not grabbed these charts by now, I once again invite you to do so. Maybe it will help with trading decisions, maybe not.
As for my own portfolio of long term stocks, I cashed out in February and my FX trading is also on hold. I have no desire to chase my own tail at this point.
Best wishes to you all. And, mid terms are not that far away... Wisconsin has already spoken.
US 10-Year Yield: Recovery Under ThreatThe US 10-Year Treasury Yield, which dropped as low as 4.16% in February, has staged a modest recovery after finding technical support at that level—a move highlighted in our March 3 analysis.
However, yields now face a significant hurdle: a 5-month major resistance zone, sitting just below 4.40%. This area has historically acted as a pivot for medium-term direction.
A successful breakout above this resistance could lead to a move toward 4.44%, 4.47%, and possibly 4.52%.
On the flip side, a failure to break higher puts yields at risk of rolling over again, with 4.22% and 4.16% acting as the last lines of defence for the bullish structure.
Rate Announcement Will Cause EXTREME Levels Of Volatility!With a tremendous amount of high impact news being released next week, you can expect very high levels of volatility especially coming up towards the first rate announcement.
Last weeks price action delivered to the upside as expected but I do still believe there is unfinished business at the 4.343% - 4.404% weekly PD array.
I expect price to expand to the upside following the high impact news being released next week. This can lead to investors chasing higher yields in risk off conditions
US10Y decision comingUS10Y decision coming very soon.
Possible M Breakdown with 5th wave down, or retrace for shoulder.
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC weekThe US February inflation data were posted during the previous week, and with 0,2% for the month, was in line with market expectations. However, the negative effects of the US Administration related to tariffs were reflected in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped in March below market estimate. What is concerning is that consumers are now expecting the inflation of 4,9% for the year, which is much higher from previous posts. It is obvious that the tariffs-on, tariffs-off game is hurting consumers’ expectations. In addition, the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, on March 19th, which might bring back some volatility across US markets.
The 10Y US benchmark started the previous week around the level of 4,15% and moved to the higher grounds through the rest of the week. The highest weekly level was 4,34% at one moment, but yields ended the week at the level of 4,31%. Some volatility could be expected at the beginning of the week ahead, and before the FOMC meeting. At current charts, there is still some space for the higher grounds, up to the level of 4,40%. Still, it should also be considered that some probability for 4,20% holds.
Clear Head&Shoulders TOP on the UST 10yYld Operating framework: How the mkt WENT IN (1st H&SBtm w/ measuring Obj VerticleUP) is how the mkt is going OUT (2nd H&STop with measuring Obj VerticleDN).
Not the Multi-pivot horizonal line acting a pivot/attractor confluence to the setp.
h/t Dan The MAN...
US10Y possible Wyckoff distribution patternAre we seeing distribution patterns here? Correlated, NASDAQ:TLT looks to be in an accumulative pattern.
WE ARE COMING OUT OF A RECESSION. NOT GOING INTO ONE.This chart shows 10-year yield, which is closely tied to mortgage rates, minus the Federal funds rate.
When this figure is negative, it typically indicates that we are experiencing a recession or economic downturn.
Conversely, a positive number usually aligns with economic growth, often referred to as the good times.
While it's up to you to determine the reasons behind a official recession not being declared during the Biden administration, the undeniable data reflects a prolonged period of economic strain.
However, the current trend seems to be shifting towards a positive reading, which should lead to more accessible lending and economic growth.
AKA The good times are coming.
US10Y Strong sell signal below the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down since the October 23 2023 High. In the past 2 months it has been on a downtrend, which is the technical Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The 1D MACD is on its 2nd Bullish Cross on a decline, very similar with the previous Bearish Leg of the Channel Down. We are again on the 0.5 Fibonacci level and as long as any rebound gets rejected below or on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the long-term bearish pattern remains intact.
We expect a similar Bearish Leg of -24% overall to target 3.685%.
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relief pumpSeems like election bull was already priced in, new money got washed.
Bonds are making a comeback, cash is a position.
Expecting more downturn after a relief pump, coinciding with yields retracement.
Yields trending with equity price are usually signs of either economical expansion or economical fears, such as slowdown or recession, during up and downs. The markets just jumped from one narrative to the other:
expansion(trump gets in office) ---> slowdown(tariffs imposed)
I think the expansion narrative will take a while to settle back(end of Q2 at least) after all the executive orders signed.
Although, I'm still long for the month of March, nice opportunity for a relief pump, before resuming of slowdown narrative.
US10Y - You Can Make Money And Be WrongLast weeks bias was bearish and although we have closed out bullish this week, the bearish PD array @ 4.126% - 4.104% which I was expecting has materialised.
This goes to show that you don't have to predict the weekly close. It's the draw on liquidity that is important.
US10 Treasury Yield Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 031025Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 3.99%/61.80%
Chart time frame: D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
