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US10Y trade ideas

US 10Y TREASURY: 4.0% testing is over?The US Treasuries ended the previous year with investors expectations on the forthcoming rate cuts, which was reflected in the Treasury yields which took the downtrend. This year, the 10Y US Treasury benchmark started by testing the $4.0% short resistance level, which ended in a short reversal further to the downside. During the previous week yields were moving within a relatively short range, between levels of 4.0% and 3.9%. Friday’s session ended with modestly lower grounds as investors were digesting the latest US inflation data released for December 2023. As inflation is easing down further in the US, so will the investors' expectations that the Fed might cut rates sooner from the second half of this year. In this sense, the 10Y yields might test lower grounds, where 3.8% currently stands as a next target and support line in technical analysis which is pending testing.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Bullish long term.The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and one more pullback to the HL would be ideal for the most comfortable buy entry until the 1D MA50 is crossed. Our target is towards the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4.600%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
1
US10Y Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 011124Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 126/61.80% Chart time frame : C A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : B A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the bottom D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
TVC:US10Y
by fibonacci6180
us10y and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further, read my post from april: --- it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed. back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y. as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going into the end of 2024. i'm aware that jpow has mentioned in the last few fed meetings that he has no intention of raising the rates any further, but i'm seeing a significant development on many of the charts this week which tells me otherwise. so i'm calling him out on his bluff. --- us10y w5 algo = 6-9%
TVC:US10Y
by Eloquent
US 10Y TREASURY: heading toward 3% in 2024The first half of the year 2023 was marked with continuation of Fed`s aggressive rate hike due to quantitative tightening in order to fight elevated inflation. During October last year the 10Y US Treasuries reached the highest yearly level of 5%. Considering that following months brought some relaxation in Fed`s rhetoric, the yields returned to the lower grounds. The pivotal point for yields was a moment when Fed officials stressed their projections that the reference rate as of the end of 2024 should reach 4.6%. This was a major note for markets, which started pricing Fed's rate cuts in the year ahead. During the Q3 2023 Treasury yields significantly eased, ending the year by testing the 4.0% level. As per latest Fed`s forecasts, the inflation in the US should decrease in 2024, but will still not reach the targeted value of 2%, jobs markets should remain strong as well as economic output, and the Fed will correct its current interest rates to the downside. In economic theory this would imply that 10Y Treasury yields should follow the path and also decrease. However, the theory is one thing, and the reality is something completely different. Analysts are generally in agreement that yields should move between 3% and 4% in 2024, however, it will strongly depend on the Fed`s rhetoric and further monetary moves. What is currently certain is that the 4% level will be tested at the beginning of 2024, with some probability that the level of 3% might be reached as of the year-end.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Support & Resistance Level on US 10 Year Treasury - Weekly ChartOn this Weekly chart I add the lines of key support and resistance levels for the US 10 Year Treasury. It's at a pivotal point right now hovering around 4%. What i'm watching for is to see if it's going to reclaim 4% for 2 consecutive weeks at a minimum and move higher to re-test that 4.25 to 4.28 range or if it will stay below 4% for 2-3 consecutive weeks and move lower into the next level down that I have marked off with white lines. I watch this closely as I am in the mortgage business and what the 10 year does daily will impact mortgage rates.
TVC:US10Y
by jonesteam2013
1
Critical Levels and Market Anticipation - US 10Y yieldUnveiling the High-Stakes Dance of US Inflation and the 10-Year Yield: Critical Levels and Market Anticipation" A slew of US inflation data is scheduled for release on Friday, prompting our attention towards the US 10-year yield. Initially holding ground at 3.79, it has recently broken its short-term downtrend and is undergoing an upward correction. The market has paused near the 4.10 level, precisely aligning with the high of March 23 at 4.09. It seems the market is consolidating its recent gains. Beyond the 4.10 mark, the immediate target price appears to be a combination of the 55-day moving average, presently at 4.31, and the previous peak in August 2023 at 4.36. Notably, these two levels stand out clearly on the chart, also marking the high from October 2022. From a technical perspective, breaching 4.10 could lead to an upward movement towards 4.31 to 4.36, serving as the next significant barrier. On the downside, the recent low of 3.79 and the 20-month moving average at 3.80 act as initial support levels. Below this lies a more substantial base of support, not encountered until 3.25. The forthcoming inflation figures on Friday should be interesting. All eyes are set on these critical levels for the US 10-year yield, hinting at potential market movements ahead. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
Short term rates still look weak while long term look betterHAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to weaken a bit more. ------------------------------------------------- HOWEVER, long term debt looks to be solidifying a bit. The 10 & 30Yr #Yield look identical & both look like they want to bounce here. How strong? We'll see. Took small position on Thurs. This could also be more of a technical set up as both are at support levels, 30yr is at strong long term support. TVC:TNX #bonds
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Understanding quarterly shifts in DXYIf you engage in futures trading, it's crucial to closely monitor quarterly shifts in DXY (US Dollar Index), EUR/USD, and yields. These indicators provide valuable insights into potential directional changes. Pay special attention to daily Market Structure High (MSB) and Smart Money Tool (SMT) patterns among correlated assets. Once a shift is identified, focus your trades in alignment with that new direction, emphasizing a strategy that considers the prevailing macroeconomic factors. The correlation and intermarket analysis, integral to this approach, involve studying relationships between assets to discern potential market movements. Success in implementing this strategy relies on a trader's expertise, risk management, and adaptability to evolving market conditions. Stay informed about global economic events and regularly reassess your trading strategy in response to market developments.
TVC:US10YEducation
by BullishFX_Consultancy
déjà vuCircle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles. All of them are identical clones of the original. Price is after all, nothing more than perfect fractals, the equation of which is, and will forever be, unknown to us. FED is the all-powerful entity that gives birth and death to bull markets. Its only weapon is yield rates. Don't go against the FED. Yield rates up = Bull Equity Market Yield rates down = Bear Equity Market Many think this is the other way around, that yield rates kill equity markets. Why do rate hikes help equities though? Because Bonds. Bonds suffer during periods of rate hikes. And they soar when yield rates remain constant or fall. The usual investment strategy of equities+bonds is creating a rapid shift in flow as we speak. For a year, massive amounts of wealth was withdrawn from bonds, and invested into equities. This trend is about to shift rapidly. And the speed of such a shift is extreme. While short-term rates are very fast moving, long-term yields represent a heavy market, and thus are more important in our analysis. I will ignore the FEDFUNDS rate because it represents a fraction of the weight of US10Y. Long-term yields didn't change much in 2007, but the crash was devastating. In 2018 the same happened, but faster in US10Y. The slope was much higher than in 2007. This resulted in a literal black swan event. The consequences of the 2020 crash are still unknown. Moving to today, we witness an unparalleled change in yield rates. This has resulted in massive bond crashes as we have shown before, and will most certainly lead to incalculable effects in the equity market. History has shown that the stronger the rate change, the harder the crash. This makes sense. The higher yield rates go, the greater the incentive to invest in bonds. Be aware, the market is waiting for the FED to trigger the crash. Make sure to pick the correct side when the cycle ends again. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Editors' picks
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
6
THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW — TNX GOES NUTS!Bank of America says the recession and credit crunch could lead to large corporate defaults. Credit strategists at Bank of America note that the fallout from the recession and credit crunch could see $1 trillion in corporate debt eventually become insolvent. This is largely due to the fact that banks have already begun to refuse lending conditions after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. US debt growth has also slowed in recent years, and a "full blown" recession has yet to be officially declared. If a full-blown recession does not occur in the next year or two, the restart of the credit cycle will be delayed. For now, analysts still predict that a moderate/short recession is more likely than a full blown recession. Markets are increasingly nervous about the prospect of a future downturn, with the New York Fed's Recession Probability Index projecting appr. 70 percent chance of a recession hitting by April 2024. The risk comes from the Fed's aggressive 21-fold increase in interest rates over the past 15 months to tame inflation. The US Federal Reserve, having fired a lot of "HIKE RATE" ammos over the past two years. And certainly has fulfilled its goals. In fact, in the second quarter of 2023, the rolling 12-month growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (April value = 4.9%) was below the Core CPI (April value = 5.5%). In human words that means prices of food and energy are deflating year-over-year. To some extent, the risk is also heightened by the recent banking turmoil, as lenders suffer losses on their "HELD-TO-MATURITY" (and in fact "READY-TO-SELL") portfolios of long-term corporate bonds and US Government bonds, as well as in due to a sharp outflow of deposits. The technical picture in TVC:TNX says the key trend is still strong, thanks to tailwinds from the first quarter of 2022 and support of Weekly SMA(52). The second half of 2023 is off to an interesting start. High quality "AAA" 10-year Bond' yield is back to pain levels corresponding to the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange last fall, as well as the collapse of regional and cryptocurrency banks as early as this spring, 2023 (like SVB, FRC and others). At the same time, real (that is, minus inflation) rates are now certainly much higher, against each of those two marks, as inflation is down.
TVC:US10Y
by Pandorra
2
The Ripple Effect: How Interest Rates Influence the Stock MarketIntroduction Brief Overview In the complex tapestry of the global economy, few factors play a more pivotal role than interest rates. At its core, an interest rate is the cost of borrowing money, a fundamental element that influences economic activity. Governed largely by a nation's central bank, these rates are a powerful tool, used to control economic growth, manage inflation, and stabilize the currency. Whether you are a homeowner paying a mortgage, a student paying off loans, or a conglomerate investing in new ventures, interest rates touch every corner of economic life. They are the heartbeat of the financial world, dictating the rhythm of spending, saving, and investing across the globe. Thesis Statement This article delves into the intricate dance between interest rates and the stock market, a relationship that is both dynamic and profound. Interest rates don't just influence how much it costs to borrow money; they also have a domino effect on stock prices, corporate profits, and investor behavior. Our focus is on unraveling this complex interplay, shedding light on how fluctuations in interest rates can set in motion waves that ripple through the stock market. Importance For investors, particularly those engaged in swing trading, understanding the impact of interest rates is not just academic—it's a crucial aspect of strategic decision-making. Swing traders, who typically hold positions from a few days to several weeks, must be acutely aware of how interest rates can influence market trends and individual stock performances. A change in interest rates can alter the investment landscape overnight, creating risks and opportunities that must be navigated with skill and insight. In this context, a deep understanding of the interest rate-stock market relationship is not just beneficial; it's essential for successful trading. By grasping how interest rates influence market dynamics, swing traders can better anticipate market movements, make more informed decisions, and, ultimately, enhance their trading performance. Section 1: Understanding Interest Rates Definition and Function At its simplest, an interest rate can be understood as the price paid for the use of borrowed money. This rate, usually expressed as a percentage, is what borrowers pay lenders in addition to the principal amount borrowed. But beyond this basic definition, interest rates are a cornerstone of financial policy, serving multiple roles in the economy. They act as a regulatory tool for economic growth, influencing the level of spending and saving in an economy. When rates are low, they encourage borrowing and spending, injecting more money into the economy, thereby stimulating growth. Conversely, high interest rates tend to slow down economic activity by making borrowing more expensive, thus dampening spending and investment. In this way, interest rates are a key lever used by policymakers to maintain economic stability and target inflation levels. Determinants of Interest Rates The setting of interest rates is not arbitrary; it is influenced by a myriad of factors, primarily steered by a country's central bank. The most significant determinants include: 1. Inflation: One of the primary goals of setting interest rates is to control inflation. When inflation is high, central banks may increase interest rates to cool down the economy. This increase makes borrowing more costly and saving more attractive, which can reduce spending and bring down inflation. 2. Economic Growth: Interest rates are adjusted in response to the current state of the economy. In periods of economic downturn or recession, lowering interest rates can stimulate borrowing and investment, providing a boost to economic activity. In contrast, in times of robust economic growth, higher interest rates can help temper expansion and prevent the economy from overheating. 3. Monetary Policy: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, use monetary policy to manage economic stability. This policy includes setting the target interest rate, which influences overall financial conditions in the economy. The central bank's perception of economic conditions (like employment rates, GDP growth, and consumer spending) significantly influences its monetary policy decisions. 4. Global Economic Factors: In today's interconnected world, global economic conditions also play a role. For example, if major economies are experiencing growth or recession, it can influence interest rate decisions in other countries due to the global nature of trade and finance. Understanding these determinants is crucial for investors and traders, as changes in interest rates can have widespread effects on the financial markets, including the stock market. This understanding forms the foundation for appreciating the nuanced ways in which interest rates can influence stock prices and investment strategies, particularly in the realm of swing trading. Section 2: Interest Rates and the Stock Market Direct Impact Interest rates wield a direct and significant influence on stock prices. This impact primarily revolves around the cost of capital and corporate earnings. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper for companies, enabling them to invest in growth, expand operations, or refinance existing debt at more favorable terms. This often leads to increased corporate earnings and, by extension, higher stock prices. Conversely, when interest rates rise, borrowing costs increase, potentially leading to reduced profits and lower stock valuations. Furthermore, interest rates also affect the discount rate used in valuation models. When rates are low, future cash flows are discounted at a lower rate, increasing the present value of stocks. Higher interest rates mean a higher discount rate, which can reduce the present value and, consequently, stock prices. Investor Psychology The psychological aspect of investing plays a critical role in how interest rates affect the stock market. Lower interest rates often create an environment of economic optimism, encouraging risk-taking among investors. Stocks, being riskier assets, become more attractive in low-rate scenarios as investors seek higher returns, driving up demand and prices. On the flip side, rising interest rates can signal a tightening of monetary policy and potential economic slowdown. This can lead to increased risk aversion, prompting investors to shift their assets to safer havens like bonds or even cash. Such shifts in investor sentiment can cause stock markets to react negatively, leading to price declines. Sector-Specific Impacts Different sectors of the stock market can react quite differently to changes in interest rates. For instance: • Financial Sector: Banks and financial institutions often benefit from rising interest rates, as they can earn more from the spread between what they pay on deposits and what they earn from loans. • Real Estate Sector: This sector typically has a negative correlation with interest rates. Higher rates increase the cost of mortgages, which can dampen demand for real estate and negatively impact related stocks. • Technology Sector: Tech companies, particularly those with high growth potential but lower immediate profitability, can be sensitive to interest rate changes. Lower rates generally favor these companies by reducing their cost of capital and valuing their future earnings more favorably. • Consumer Discretionary Sector: Consumer spending habits can be influenced by interest rates. Lower rates might encourage more spending on non-essential goods and services, potentially benefiting this sector. Understanding these dynamics is essential for traders, especially those involved in swing trading, as it allows them to anticipate which sectors might be poised for growth or decline in response to interest rate changes. This sector-specific approach enables more informed and strategic investment decisions. Section 3: Historical Case Studies Past Trends To fully grasp the impact of interest rates on the stock market, it is insightful to turn to history. Several instances stand out where shifts in interest rates led to significant market movements: 1. The Early 2000s Dot-Com Bubble Burst: Following the burst of the dot-com bubble, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to historic lows to stimulate the economy. This action, coupled with other factors, led to a rapid recovery in the stock market, with the S&P 500 climbing significantly in the years that followed. 2. The 2008 Financial Crisis: In response to the 2008 financial crisis, central banks around the world slashed interest rates to near-zero levels. This move was aimed at encouraging investment and spending. Stock markets eventually responded positively after an initial period of high volatility, with indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounding strongly in the subsequent years. 3. The COVID-19 Pandemic Response in 2020: As a reaction to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks again cut interest rates. This action, combined with fiscal stimulus, led to a swift recovery in stock markets, with tech stocks, in particular, showing strong performance. Analysis of Outcomes Analyzing these historical cases reveals several key patterns and lessons: • Quick Response Leads to Quick Recovery: One consistent observation is that swift and decisive interest rate cuts by central banks have often led to rapid recoveries in the stock market. This suggests that proactive monetary policy is a crucial tool in mitigating economic downturns. • Sector-Specific Responses: Different sectors respond uniquely to interest rate changes. For example, tech stocks have historically performed well in low-interest environments due to their growth potential and reliance on cheap capital. • Long-Term Impacts: While lower interest rates typically lead to immediate stock market gains, the long-term impacts can be complex. Prolonged low-interest-rate environments can lead to asset bubbles and increased debt levels, posing risks to economic stability. • Investor Behavior: These historical instances underline the importance of investor psychology. Market sentiment can shift dramatically in response to interest rate changes, often resulting in short-term volatility before settling into a trend. These historical examples provide valuable insights for investors, particularly those engaged in swing trading. Understanding how the market has responded to interest rate changes in the past can help in formulating strategies that anticipate similar movements in the future, though it's important to remember that past performance is not always indicative of future results. Section 4: Interest Rates and Swing Trading Opportunities and Risks Swing traders, with their focus on short to medium-term market movements, can find both opportunities and risks in the fluctuations of interest rates. These changes can create significant price movements and trends in the stock market, which swing traders can capitalize on. Opportunities: • Sector Rotation: Interest rate changes often lead to shifts in sector performance. Swing traders can take advantage of this by rotating into sectors that are likely to benefit from the current interest rate environment. • Trend Identification: Interest rate trends can set the stage for medium-term trends in the stock market. Identifying and riding these trends can be a profitable strategy. • Volatility: Interest rate announcements and expectations can increase market volatility, creating price swings that traders can exploit. Risks: • Market Unpredictability: While interest rate changes can create trends, they can also lead to market uncertainty and unpredictable movements, especially around the time of major announcements. • Overreaction: Markets can sometimes overreact to interest rate news, leading to exaggerated moves that can reverse quickly. • Lag in Market Reaction: The full impact of interest rate changes on the economy and corporate earnings may take time to materialize, posing a risk for traders who act too quickly on interest rate news alone. Strategies Swing trading strategies in the context of changing interest rates might include: • Trading on Interest Rate Announcements: Swing traders can take positions just before interest rate announcements, betting on the market's reaction to the news. • Riding the Wave: After an interest rate change, traders can identify which sectors are likely to benefit and take positions accordingly. • Contrarian Strategies: In cases of overreaction, swing traders might adopt a contrarian approach, taking positions opposite to the market's initial movement. Mark Minervini’s Perspective Mark Minervini, a renowned stock trader, emphasizes the importance of understanding market context, which includes the impact of interest rates. Minervini's trading philosophy, based on specific patterns and technical analysis, also considers the broader economic environment. He suggests: • Focus on Quality Stocks: Even in fluctuating interest rate environments, Minervini advocates for focusing on high-quality stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential. • Risk Management: In times of interest rate volatility, Minervini stresses the importance of stringent risk management strategies to protect against unforeseen market movements. • Adaptability: Minervini's approach is about adaptability - being able to switch strategies based on changing market conditions, including shifts in interest rates. By incorporating these insights and strategies, swing traders can better navigate the complexities of trading in varying interest rate environments, balancing the pursuit of opportunities with the management of risks. Conclusion Summary This article has explored the multifaceted relationship between interest rates and the stock market, highlighting its significance in the realm of investing and swing trading. We began by defining interest rates and their function in the economy, followed by an examination of the factors influencing their determination, such as inflation, economic growth, and monetary policy. We then delved into the direct impact of interest rates on stock prices, investor psychology, and the varying responses of different market sectors. Historical case studies provided a practical perspective, showcasing how shifts in interest rates have historically affected the stock market. In the realm of swing trading, we discussed the opportunities and risks presented by fluctuating interest rates and outlined strategies to navigate these changes, incorporating insights from Mark Minervini's trading philosophy. Finally, we analyzed the current interest rate environment and offered educated guesses on future trends and potential market reactions. Final Thoughts Understanding the dynamics between interest rates and stock market behavior is not just about recognizing patterns; it's about comprehending a fundamental aspect of financial markets. For investors and swing traders, this knowledge is crucial. It enables them to adapt their strategies, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities in a landscape that is constantly shaped by monetary policy decisions. Call to Action As we navigate through evolving economic conditions, the importance of staying informed cannot be overstated. I encourage readers to continuously educate themselves about current economic trends, particularly interest rate movements. Integrating this understanding into your investment strategy can provide a significant edge in making informed, strategic decisions in the stock market. Remember, in the world of trading, knowledge is not just power—it's profit.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JS_TechTrading
US 10Y TREASURY: testing 4.0%Cooling inflation data in the US were the ones which were supporting optimism with market participants, indicating a good time to start purchasing the US bonds. The PCE data were published on Friday, revealing that the index was increased by 0.1% in November. The PCE is one of the favorite Fed's inflation gauges, which indicated to markets that the Fed might start pivoting during Q1, as per market expectations since the beginning of December. For the markets, it was a clear entrance point, where 10Y Treasury yields reached lowest weekly level at 3.83%, while yields finished the week around 3.9%. At this moment, the market is actually testing the 4.0% support line for the 10Y Treasury bonds. It was more than evident on charts that the reversal point in the bond market started in November this year, while current 4.0% might be seen as a short term stop for yields. There is no question about where the yields will go in the future, however, the market is currently pricing 4.6% anticipated interest rates at the end of the next year. Charts are showing that there is an open path for 3.6% level, however, this would be the case for the year ahead. During the last week of December, it should not be expected to make any significant moves toward either side. The yields will continue to oscillate around the 4.0% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX