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US10Y trade ideas

US10Y - Weekly Continued Run On Buy Stops?This week was not easy for those looking to short back down to broken resistance; 4.137%. We saw TVC:US10Y 4.196% buy stops liquidated before rejecting from a HTF 6-month bearish order block that has been respected in the past. Based on Thursday's sell stop raid, with the lows being 4.187%, we swiftly retraced before closing 50% of thew daily range @ 4.283. I am not ruling out the chance of a short term bearish run towards the upper and lower displacement new week opening gap as that could be a great area for the accumulation of longs to begin. A bearish run 4.187% would bring me back to the drawing boards as there would be a higher probability chance that my idea will get negated What do you think this means for CBOT:ZB1! My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
US 10Y TREASURY: to be or not to be a rate cut?During the previous period investors had been pretty confident that the Fed might cut interest rates in May, however, the latest published inflation data for January made them rethink expectations. Namely, as January inflation came higher than expected, the reaction of the Treasury yields was imminent one to the upside. This move was additionally supported by the released producers price index of 0.3% for January. The 10Y US benchmark made a move during the week from 4.15% up to 4.31%. In the week ahead there are FOMC Minutes scheduled for a release. In case that there is no news that the market did not priced in until now, then it might be expected some further volatility on the market. In the opposite case, some relaxation in Treasury yields should be expected, but not the significant ones. It could rather be a move toward the 4.2%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y Yield Faces pivotal Resistance.The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently encountering significant resistance at the levels of 4.335 and 4.36, marked by peaks observed in 2022 and August 2023. This resistance zone also aligns with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. There are indications that the market is exerting considerable pressure at this juncture: price action is showing persistence, and a buy signal has emerged on the Directional Movement Index (DMI) with the positive directional indicator (+DI) surpassing the negative directional indicator (-DI). Where will it go to above 4.36? Looking at the longer-term chart we can see an old trendline now offers resistance at 4.53, which co-coincides beautifully with the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down, which also lies at 4.53. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US10Y - Weekly Buyside Attack! #1Throughout the week, rates has been predominantly bearish until a break in market structure occurred on Wed 7th Feb 24, 9:00AM, sweeping 6th Feb 24 - 15:00PM sellside before swiftly repricing higher, targeting the prior highs @ 4.169% and rallying up to where we are today. Studying price action throughout this week, it can be observed that a liquidity void has been formed (highlighted in blue on the 1H timeframe) and throughout the week, US10Y has respected it as a resistance (as seen @ 7am on Wednesday 7th), Thur 8th, 13:00PM as well as Fri 9th, 8:00AM indicating that there is a lot of sell stops below the 4.127% region. I am currently looking for higher rates at the moment, targeting 4.3%, following the bullish trend that kicked off from sellside was swept last Wednesday when equities opened @ 9:00AM Interest Rates are paramount to the movement of all asset classes, hence the reason why I place such importance on it even though I do not trade it. My philosophy is simple... Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go. This includes; - Market Structure - Buyside/Sellside Liquidity - Order Blocks - Liquidity Voids - Fair Value Gaps - Optimal Trade Entry - Premium/Discount Array - SIBI/BISI - Many More! The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated. Credits; - Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE - Shawn Lee POWELL - Toray KORTAN
TVC:US10YLong
by LegendSince
Dire warning by $JPM CEO - We've been saying this for some time.Good Morning Update!!!!!!! The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments. NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play. --- #yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported. 2 things we've been saying for some time!!!!!!! Be in #stocks but, Have Hard assets!!! #gold #BTC #silver Pls see our profile for more info!!!
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting January inflationDuring the previous week there has not been significant news published for the current state of the US economy, so the Treasury yields remained relatively stable, moving within a short range. The US Labor department revised its data for the inflation in December from 0.3% down to 0.2%, but the US Treasuries did not react much to this news. One of the reasons might be that the week ahead will bring a release of the inflation rate for January, in which sense, December`s data might be of less importance at this moment. At the same time several Fed officials publicly noted that the Fed is resilient to cut rates too soon, in which sense, the first rate cut might be postponed from the period currently expected by the market. The 10Y US Treasuries started the previous week around the 4.0% level, but moved to the higher grounds during the week. Highest weekly level reached was 4.19%. Yields are testing the highest level from the end of January, but without an indication that this level might be clearly breached. This increases probability for a short reversal to the down side, however, at this moment on charts there is indication for the level of 4.0%, with quite low probability that yields could go lower from this level in the coming week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader! U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday. 💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note. 🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13. 🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure. We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex: (Click on chart below) In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top... Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
TVC:US10YShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
US 10Y TREASURY: relaxation is comingUS FED officials decided to leave the rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting during the previous week, however, the much better than expected jobs data influenced major Treasury yields move during the previous week. Although the market was expecting to see the figure of 180K, the released figure was almost doubled to 353K. In the eyes of market participants, this means high potential that the inflation will not drop down to targeted 2%, as expected, but the period might be prolonged, in which sense, Fed might keep currently elevated interest rates for a longer period of time, then previously estimated. In line with it, current expectations are that the first rate cut might occur in May this year. The 10Y Treasury yields responded accordingly, with a shift from 3.82% up to 4.04% as of the end of the week. The 4.0% has been tested for one more time. Based on current charts, there is a low probability that yields can go to the higher grounds. Instead, some relaxation could be expected in the week ahead, down to 3.9%, eventually 3.8% in the coming period.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
4
Assessing US T-Note Pre-FedWe're examining the US Treasury Note in anticipation of the Fed meeting. The market seems to have finished a corrective pattern ('a-b-c') and is currently facing resistance from the 55-day and 200-day moving averages. This puts it in a defensive position prior to the meeting. The central bank is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates, but the spotlight will be on any indications regarding future rate cuts from policymakers. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YShort
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: gearing for FOMCReleased US economic data during the previous week were driving the sentiment for the US Treasuries. Released data of Q4 GDP growth rate of 3.3% was better than anticipated by the market`s 2.0%. Also released PCE data show further easing of inflation pressures, where core PCE reached 2.9%, lower from expected 3.0% by the market. This supported market sentiment on a Fed's rate cuts during the course of this year, so the yields responded to those expectations. The 10Y Treasuries started the week around 4.2%, but ended it at 4.14%. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead. In case that Fed`s rhetoric reveals anything new that the market did not priced, then it could be expected some volatility on markets, but also in Treasury yields. However, in case that everything runs smoothly, as expected, then the 10Y US yields should further ease, at least till the level of 4.10%, with some potential for 4.0%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX