US10Y rising wedge breakdownUS10Y broke out of the orange rising wedge downward.
It bounced off of the teal upward trendline, retesting the rising wedge.
Last week it also printed inverted hammer candle stick.
Next support level would be 3.3%.
US10Y trade ideas
US10Y - Was My Overall Bias Burned?We started with continued upside movement with Friday creating the shift in market structure. My overall bias was bullish and still is on a macro perspective up to 4.40%.
Thursday and Friday were the days that we witnessed buy stop raid before a reverse which gives me the idea that we are in the cards for some form of continued retracement, at least up to the 4.2% region.
From a intra-day timeframe perspective, the NWOG upper and lower displacement I the area I would be looking at to expect tome form of rejection.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
US 10Y TREASURY: rate cut on a long stick It seems that the market would have to wait longer than initially anticipated for the first rate cut. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed during the previous week showed that Fed officials are optimistic regarding the outcome of already taken monetary measures, however, they would like to be certain that the inflation is clearly on the road toward the targeted 2%, before they decide to make a move toward lower reference rates. The market reaction was further increase in Treasury yields, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.34%. Yields are ending the week modestly lower, at the level of 4.25%.
In the week ahead there is PCE data scheduled for a release. In case of any negative surprises in data, the Treasury yields might move to the higher grounds, at least till the level of 4.4%. Still, in case that there are no surprises, then there will be further relaxation in yields, at least till the 4.20% level.
US10YUS10Y weekly parabolic trend crosses.
As we know US10Y is one of the most important parameters for all investors.
In this idea,
- Shows parabolic trends in logaritmic scale.
- Added date for parabolic trend crosses.
This chart is published as an educational purpose and not a financial advice in any case.
All responsibilty of useage this charts is yours.
US10Y - Weekly Continued Run On Buy Stops?This week was not easy for those looking to short back down to broken resistance; 4.137%. We saw TVC:US10Y 4.196% buy stops liquidated before rejecting from a HTF 6-month bearish order block that has been respected in the past.
Based on Thursday's sell stop raid, with the lows being 4.187%, we swiftly retraced before closing 50% of thew daily range @ 4.283.
I am not ruling out the chance of a short term bearish run towards the upper and lower displacement new week opening gap as that could be a great area for the accumulation of longs to begin.
A bearish run 4.187% would bring me back to the drawing boards as there would be a higher probability chance that my idea will get negated
What do you think this means for CBOT:ZB1!
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
US 10Y TREASURY: to be or not to be a rate cut?During the previous period investors had been pretty confident that the Fed might cut interest rates in May, however, the latest published inflation data for January made them rethink expectations. Namely, as January inflation came higher than expected, the reaction of the Treasury yields was imminent one to the upside. This move was additionally supported by the released producers price index of 0.3% for January. The 10Y US benchmark made a move during the week from 4.15% up to 4.31%.
In the week ahead there are FOMC Minutes scheduled for a release. In case that there is no news that the market did not priced in until now, then it might be expected some further volatility on the market. In the opposite case, some relaxation in Treasury yields should be expected, but not the significant ones. It could rather be a move toward the 4.2%.
US 10Y Yield Faces pivotal Resistance.The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently encountering significant resistance at the levels of 4.335 and 4.36, marked by peaks observed in 2022 and August 2023. This resistance zone also aligns with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. There are indications that the market is exerting considerable pressure at this juncture: price action is showing persistence, and a buy signal has emerged on the Directional Movement Index (DMI) with the positive directional indicator (+DI) surpassing the negative directional indicator (-DI).
Where will it go to above 4.36?
Looking at the longer-term chart we can see an old trendline now offers resistance at 4.53, which co-coincides beautifully with the 61.8% retracement of the last leg down, which also lies at 4.53.
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us 10 yrtesting
think im having mike issues.
2.11 is the floor on 10yr.
looking for 2.99 at the least.
US Treasury Head and Shoulder Pattern visible May be potential drop will start soon. Head and Shoulder Pattern Visible in daily chart.
Would like to know your opinion
US10Y - Weekly Buyside Attack! #1Throughout the week, rates has been predominantly bearish until a break in market structure occurred on Wed 7th Feb 24, 9:00AM, sweeping 6th Feb 24 - 15:00PM sellside before swiftly repricing higher, targeting the prior highs @ 4.169% and rallying up to where we are today.
Studying price action throughout this week, it can be observed that a liquidity void has been formed (highlighted in blue on the 1H timeframe) and throughout the week, US10Y has respected it as a resistance (as seen @ 7am on Wednesday 7th), Thur 8th, 13:00PM as well as Fri 9th, 8:00AM indicating that there is a lot of sell stops below the 4.127% region.
I am currently looking for higher rates at the moment, targeting 4.3%, following the bullish trend that kicked off from sellside was swept last Wednesday when equities opened @ 9:00AM
Interest Rates are paramount to the movement of all asset classes, hence the reason why I place such importance on it even though I do not trade it.
My philosophy is simple...
Fortify Michael J Huddlestone's concepts that I have studied to consistently predict where the market is more likely to go.
This includes;
- Market Structure
- Buyside/Sellside Liquidity
- Order Blocks
- Liquidity Voids
- Fair Value Gaps
- Optimal Trade Entry
- Premium/Discount Array
- SIBI/BISI
- Many More!
The strategies mentioned here are some of many that I use to implement into my analysis and over time, with consistency I aim to achieve a high degree of accuracy in the markets with the foresight and understanding to assess what went wrong when my bias is negated.
Credits;
- Michael Joe HUDDLESTONE
- Shawn Lee POWELL
- Toray KORTAN
Dire warning by $JPM CEO - We've been saying this for some time.Good Morning Update!!!!!!!
The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments.
NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play.
---
#yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported.
2 things we've been saying for some time!!!!!!!
Be in #stocks but, Have Hard assets!!!
#gold #BTC #silver
Pls see our profile for more info!!!
The Bond Market this era Vs the Great Depression If this pattern continues to coincide, we should expect a massive downturn across all major indices over the next 5 - 10 years
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting January inflationDuring the previous week there has not been significant news published for the current state of the US economy, so the Treasury yields remained relatively stable, moving within a short range. The US Labor department revised its data for the inflation in December from 0.3% down to 0.2%, but the US Treasuries did not react much to this news. One of the reasons might be that the week ahead will bring a release of the inflation rate for January, in which sense, December`s data might be of less importance at this moment. At the same time several Fed officials publicly noted that the Fed is resilient to cut rates too soon, in which sense, the first rate cut might be postponed from the period currently expected by the market.
The 10Y US Treasuries started the previous week around the 4.0% level, but moved to the higher grounds during the week. Highest weekly level reached was 4.19%. Yields are testing the highest level from the end of January, but without an indication that this level might be clearly breached. This increases probability for a short reversal to the down side, however, at this moment on charts there is indication for the level of 4.0%, with quite low probability that yields could go lower from this level in the coming week.
Downtrend has been broken, next wave incoming.Uptrend has commenced and we have barely begun. Generally inflation has 3 waves, and we have had our first. Rates are only up from here. Next stop is 10% ish and a 618 retrace.
Wishing for 5% to be terminal rate was a joke.
US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader!
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday.
💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note.
🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13.
🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure.
We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex:
(Click on chart below)
In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top...
Trade with care
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If crude oil breaks down then USD can stop at resistanceHey guys,
Crude oil came down recently, which can help inflation to come down as well if energy market will continue to decline. In fact I see nice bearish pattern, so my assumption is that US yeilds and USD can be trading at resistance.
In this video I will also look at the chart of the 10 year US yeilds where I see greater chance for a drop to 3% rather than rally back to 5%.
Hope you will enjoy the content.
Grega
US 10Y TREASURY: relaxation is comingUS FED officials decided to leave the rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting during the previous week, however, the much better than expected jobs data influenced major Treasury yields move during the previous week. Although the market was expecting to see the figure of 180K, the released figure was almost doubled to 353K. In the eyes of market participants, this means high potential that the inflation will not drop down to targeted 2%, as expected, but the period might be prolonged, in which sense, Fed might keep currently elevated interest rates for a longer period of time, then previously estimated. In line with it, current expectations are that the first rate cut might occur in May this year. The 10Y Treasury yields responded accordingly, with a shift from 3.82% up to 4.04% as of the end of the week.
The 4.0% has been tested for one more time. Based on current charts, there is a low probability that yields can go to the higher grounds. Instead, some relaxation could be expected in the week ahead, down to 3.9%, eventually 3.8% in the coming period.
Important US 10-year auction this week!US 10-year yield spiked on Friday which strengthened the 61.8% Fibo retracement rate of 3.931%. The main resistance rates now sit at 4.057% and 4.115%, the 50- and 200-day MA’s. Given the lower high made last week I suspect the next move will be higher towards the 38.2% Fibo rate of 4.347% so keep your eyes on this week’s US 10-year bond auction.
US10Y Hello and have a good time I trade according to these analyses My analysis is based on fundamentals, intermarket analysis, news, geopolitical topics, and of course technical levels. I hope it is your light
you getting sick of these stock all time highs?it looks like we are about to have fun again, its going to be a slow ride there though.
ShortIt Looks like a sell in US 10Yr Bond Yields.
What's your thoughts? Bear Flag break break down on Daily chart potential move towards 2.78?
if you like the idea please leave comment and share.
USD/JPY can go down with this
US10Y has started a new trend. Commodities up only. Inflationary times ahead unfortunately. Stocks should have a modest perform. On the other hand commodities like gold could spike.
