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US Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

US10Y vs. SPX ~ Inverse Correlation/Ratio Indicator (Dec 2023)TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation only valid when market is "hyper-sensitive" to bond market fluctuations, especially during recent US Fed undertaking rate hike cycle. Should be used in conjunction with other confluence factors to provide conviction in swing/position trades.
TVC:US10Y
by BlueHatInvestor
BRR pattern points to a true Santa rally for bonds. A rare chart pattern second in predictive power to only the famous head and shoulders is the Bump and Run Reversal (BRR) technical pattern. school.stockcharts.com If it is so powerful, why is it so unheard of? 1) They are rare. But a recent BRR of very high consequence is the 2022 DXY chart. 2) They usually only occur on high time frames as they measure manias and blow off tops, or in the inverse, manic selling followed by a return to normal. 3) They are hard to chart 4) They give predictive power in terms of time, not in terms of a "measured move" of price, but in the other dimension time. This chart shows a clear BRR reversal, 55 days in the manic up pattern, the "bump". 55 Days in the return to trend or "run". Which would create a 10 year US Treasury bond rally and likely a rally in risk on assets. Which lands us, perfectly, at yields dropping until Monday December 25th 2023. Merry Christmas Traders!
TVC:US10YLong
by SuperCycleTA
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC meeting aheadThe yields on the US Treasuries continued to slow down during the course of the previous week. However, a strong US jobs data posted on Friday, made an impact on 10Y yields to revert a bit toward the higher grounds. Although the US equities were supported by the same news, investors in the Treasury bonds still hold a dose of reserve when it comes to the future economic conditions. Namely, as job data remains strong, there is a fear that the Fed might tighten further in order to sustain their 2% inflation goal. The 10Y Treasuries started the previous week around 4.29% yield. As the week progressed, yields reached the lowest weekly level at 4.10%. However, at Friday`s trading session, they reverted a bit back, ending the week at 4.23%. Regardless of this small reversal, the markets are still generally oriented toward the downside. The market is still pending testing the 4.0% level, which might occur during the following week or two. At the same time, charts are pointing that some short reversal might lead yields shortly toward the 4.3%, less likely 4.4% level, before they make a final reversal toward the level of 4.0%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Is this the end of Bond Yields' 3.5 year run?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is pulling-back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and bottom of the Rising Wedge. The pattern is getting too tight and the squeeze will inevitably result in a break-out and new trend/ pattern. If the Rising Wedge breaks downwards, it will mean the end of the yield's +3.5 year bullish run and will have a high impact both on stocks and Gold. In fact there are high probabilities of that happening as a similar Rising Wedge broke to the downside at the end of 2018. If that gets materialized, then the first attempt should be on the 3.300% Support 1 level, before the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) gets closer for the test of its long-term Support status. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
US 10Y TREASURY: Powell and market on opposite sidesFed Chair Powell is speaking, but the market is not listening. Powell was speaking on Friday at Spelman College in Atlanta, noting once again that the current policy might not be restrictive enough, meaning that further rate hikes are possible in case that inflation remains persistent. However, a strong economic output of 5.2% for Q3 and inflation figures which are clearly oriented toward the downside, made the market react quite opposite to Powell`s notes. Almost all assets, including Bitcoin gained during the previous week. Treasury bonds strongly gained during the week, pushing the yields lower. The 10Y Treasury yields continued with their down trend, starting the week around 4.4% level and ending it at 4.197%. This is more than a clear indication that the market is currently strongly set on rate cuts in the coming period. In case that market perceives that the rate cuts might be higher in 2024, then the 10Y Treasury yields might easily reach the level of 4.0% by the end of this year. Still, for the week ahead, it could be expected that the level of 4.2% is to be tested, with a decreased probability for a reversal toward 4.4% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: The goal from now on should be to buy the bounce.The US10Y is approaching an oversold technical state on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 34.650, MACD = -0.086, ADX = 44.537) as selling was accelerated this week after failing to get close to the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up and the decline since Octobet 23rd is the new bearish leg. The one prior hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the rally and then rebounded to the 1D MA50 with the 1D RSI approximately on the same levels as today (S1 Zone). Consequently, our goal from now on is to start buying on dips and aim for the 1D MA50 and in particularly the 0.5 Fibonacci level from whatever bottom the US10Y makes now (modest estimate TP = 4.575%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
Parabolic Volatility in the Bond MarketYield Rates represent a percentage. How much would an investor get if they invested in a US Treasury Bond. A stable economy needs three things, at least according to the FED. - Low Inflation - Low Unemployment - Strong Economy Yield Rates are the ultimate weapon of the FED. By manipulating rates they stabilize the economy accordingly. They stimulate when they should, and they calm as needed. A strong economy is a stable economy. Volatility in markets is bad juju. Stability in yield rates is a matter of survival. But it seems that we have failed in that. The average rate-of-change in yield rates has gone parabolic over the decades. And we are talking about 100 years. The bond market is currently in a whipsaw. The rate / percentage yields oscillate is beyond comprehension. Who knows what effects this will have in the years to come. A similar picture prints in FEDs mind right now. In absolute yield-rate terms, the average-true-range of rates has formed a bull flag. Once again this confirms the beginning of the 1960s stagflation. Tread lightly, for this is volatile ground.
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
US 10Y TREASURY: rate cuts are coming?The FOMC November meeting minutes were the ones that supported market expectations that the Fed is finished with further rate increases. The rates might stay higher for longer, but the market is currently anticipating that the first rate cut in this cycle might occur in May next year. Treasury yields reacted on the release of the Minutes, where yields were modestly relaxed. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week around level of 4.5%, but quite soon a drop in yields occurred down to the level of 4.36%. The support level at 4.4% has been tested during the whole week. Still, at Friday`s trading session the market was closed at the level of 4.47%. In the week ahead, it could be expected that the market will continue to test the level of 4.4% to the downside. A move toward the higher grounds is possible, but it should not be expected that yields will move higher from 4.5%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
A busy week for data - key levels to watch on the US 10Y yieldWe have a busy week this week as we have lots of data on big economies that should provide insights on inflation and activity – namely the US consumer confidence, PCE price index, PMIs, European CPI, German consumer confidence and Chinese PMI. The US 10Y yield has been correcting lower over the past few weeks but we suspect it has based just ahead of the key support offered by the 4.36/4.34 region (Fibo + previous peak). Not only is it holding here but the RSI is breaking higher also showing evidence of a base implying that the correction lower is likely to be over and that the market should recover off this key support area. N.B. I like to watch the RSI in conjunction with retracements to give me indications of where the correction is likely to halt. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YLong
by The_STA
US10Y Support Departure The current chart analysis on TradingView for the US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) indicates a pivotal moment in the market, suggesting the completion of the 4th wave on the 21-weekly EMA (Exponential Moving Average). A bullish candle, characterized by a long wick touching the 21-weekly EMA, has formed, signaling a potential trend reversal. The expectation is for the initiation of the final 5th wave, marking the conclusion of the first bullish phase and the beginning of a correction in yields. Technical Analysis: 1. Chart Patterns: The formation of a bullish candle with a long wick touching the 21-weekly EMA suggests a strong support level. This pattern often precedes a bullish continuation, indicating a potential upward movement in yields. 2. Wave Analysis: The completion of the 4th wave on the 21-weekly EMA sets the stage for the commencement of the 5th wave. In Elliott Wave Theory, this could signify the final phase of the bullish cycle. 3. Trend Reversal Indicators: The confluence of the long wick, touching the 21-weekly EMA, serves as a technical indicator of a potential trend reversal. Traders often interpret such patterns as a shift in market sentiment. Market Implications: 1. Interest Rate Stability: The completion of the 5th wave suggests that interest rates may stabilize at the current level. This implies a pause in the downward trend and a reluctance for rates to move lower in a trending fashion. 2. Future Rate Hike Expectations: The analysis leads to the anticipation that the rising rate campaign will likely continue into the following year. This marks a notable shift in the financial landscape, signaling the end of an era characterized by historically low to zero base rates. 3. Challenges for Banks and Consumers: The changing interest rate environment poses challenges for both financial institutions and consumers. With the cost of debt becoming more expensive, banks may face difficulties, and consumers will need to adapt to a higher cost of borrowing. 4. Impact on Spending and Bankruptcies: As borrowing costs rise, consumers may curtail spending, impacting economic activity. Those operating with minimal financial margins could face challenges and may need to secure additional capital to weather the changing financial landscape. This, in turn, could lead to an increase in bankruptcies. 5. Projected Timeframe: The anticipated completion of this move is projected to occur by the 24th of January. This relatively short period suggests a potentially rapid and decisive move, adding a sense of urgency to market participants. 6. Dollar Strength and Stock Market Impact: The conclusion of this move is expected to coincide with a rapid ascent in the U.S. dollar. Simultaneously, the stock market may experience an aggressive decline. This dual movement could be a result of shifting capital flows as investors adjust their portfolios in response to changing interest rate expectations. Conclusion: As the financial system enters a new era, characterized by a changing interest rate landscape, banks and consumers alike will face challenges in adapting to the evolving economic conditions. The impact on spending patterns and the potential for increased bankruptcies underscore the importance of vigilance and strategic planning in navigating the shifting financial terrain. Disclaimer: This analysis report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is recommended to consult with financial professionals and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
TVC:US10Y
by AssetWiz
$US10Y -Important Close *Weekly- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth week of August, after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks, printing only green *W candlesticks. The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y (key level marked on dashed green line) We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged higher as well during Yields uptrend (indicating a weak and fearful state of other Major Financial Markets). Seen on Weekly Timeframe, we can easily spot a triangle pattern being formed on $US10Y. Triangle Pattern's Apex can be stretched as far as 238Days from where it currently is. In case Pattern is violated to the downside, a considerable Support-Resistance zone lays just underneath dating back ever since 1912. Below that would be the catching up dynamic support of 200EMA on the Weekly, as well the support-trendline coming from Pandemic Lows. TVC:US10Y uptrend resumption seems very likely from here, especially after bouncing at the key level marked on dashed green line. What is more important to be monitored is the correlation of TVC:DXY going higher in the same time with TVC:US10Y . That would be a nightmare scenario for an investor, and a golden opportunity for those who are on the sidelines and waiting to be heavily invested in diversification .
TVC:US10Y
by Mr_J__fx