US bonds 10 years yield As you see the diametric pattern is completed and we can expect to that begin a downtrend.
US10Y trade ideas
Inverted Yield US10Y-US02Y==Late 1970s to Early 1980s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted several times between the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Economic Outcome: The U.S. experienced two recessions during this period: one in 1980 and another in 1981-1982.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experiencing declines during these recessions.
==Late 1980s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 1988 and early 1989.
Economic Outcome: This inversion was followed by a mild recession in 1990.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a downturn in 1990, with the DJIA dropping by around 20%.
==Late 1990s to Early 2000s:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in 2000.
Economic Outcome: The U.S. entered a recession in 2001, partly due to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market began a decline in 2000, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index dropping significantly due to the collapse of many internet-based companies.
==2006-2007:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in late 2006 and remained inverted into 2007.
Economic Outcome: The Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009, triggered by a housing market crash and subsequent financial crisis.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market experienced a significant decline, with the DJIA losing more than 50% of its value from its peak in 2007 to its trough in 2009.
==2019:
Yield Curve Inversion: The yield curve inverted in August 2019.
Economic Outcome: While many analysts were concerned about a potential recession, the U.S. economy remained resilient in 2019 and early 2020. However, the unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to a global economic downturn.
Stock Market Outcome: The stock market faced a sharp decline in early 2020 due to the pandemic, with the DJIA dropping by over 30% in a matter of weeks.
It's essential to note that while the inverted yield curve has been a reliable predictor of recessions in the past, the exact timing between the inversion and the onset of a recession can vary. Additionally, other factors, such as global events, fiscal policies, and technological shifts, can also play significant roles in economic outcomes.
Why we expect EURUSD SPX to keep falling.Dear fellows. In this short video we present our case that EURUSD tracks US10Y since 2020 on an inverse relationship. We also expect the yield curve to keep steepening, and by assuming Fed funds rate "higher for longer", US10Y is expected to rise further.
Higher US10Y, thus, implies in lower EURUSD and SPX, as well as other major market indexes.
The particular dynamics of each does not ensure a day to day follow up, however, eventually they do catch up.
Thank you very much for your time. Critics and suggestions are welcome.
Best regards.
US 10 Year Yield - hitting resistanceYields Surging on the long end. Hitting resistance.
Will this level hold and give the equity markets a breather to bounce?
If this continues to surge you will see a massive selloff in equities at some point as the bond market is pricing in entrenched inflation.
Long position US10YHi traders! 👋
Let's take a look at US 10 year bond yields. It's has been in an up trend for half a year now. We expect it to continue to the upside. Right now the price is testing the resistance line. We expect the price to come back to the historically strong support zone and bounce back upwards if it can hold the price. The target zone will be at the upper resistance line.
What do you think about this idea? Let us know in the comments!
US10YHi everybody start your shorting on us 10 y bond yield seriously but liitle by little .....big major resistance above that area .....enjoy this trade ....
Gooood Luuuuck
US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50.
Prior idea:
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US 10yr Treasury Yield and Fed Liquidity Inverse CorrelationStill kicking since beginning of 2022.
Higher for longer
Treasury Spike...Seeing T-notes spike up like this while Fed paused Interest Rate Hikes are an environment for a market crash IMO
US 10Y TREASURY: at overbought sideFed Chair Powell's speech after the FOMC meeting, held on Wednesday significantly moved the markets during the second half of the previous week. A “higher for longer” wording used by FOMC members was not welcomed by the market. Fed Chair Powell mentioned another rate hike till the end of this year, with an expected rate cut somewhere during the end of the next year. FOMC projected reference rates to end 2024 at 5.1%. Such projections implied immediate market reaction and 10Y yields reached their highest levels since 2007 and level of 4.50%. Yields are ending the week at a level of 4.43%.
RSI index reached a clear overbought side, which would in the case of 10Y yields, mean that the market had priced in new information received from Fed Chair Powell. There will be another rate hike till the end of this year, and a level of 4.5% has been priced. From now on, it could be expected some relaxation in the yields, which might return slowly to the level of 4.3% in the coming period. The level of uncertainty is currently increased on the market, but at this moment, further move beyond 4.5% level should not be expected.
Multi-year highs for US 10Y yieldThe Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a significant rise in US Treasury yields, reaching levels not seen in several years. This has, in turn, bolstered the US Dollar while putting pressure on US stock markets.
Later this week, investors will closely monitor the release of US core PCE data, seeking additional insights into the country's inflation trends.
In the short term, with the recent breakthrough above levels last observed in 2008, our primary focus remains on the upside, particularly towards the psychologically significant 5.00 mark and the 2006 peak at 5.25.
Looking further ahead, we've used the width of the downward channel as a basis for measuring potential future gains. This analysis points to a longer-term target approaching 6.00."
Breakout of downward sloping trendline on Yield curveThe yield curve has been inverted, and it has been a very good indicator of recessions.
Will team FED manage to land a soft landing?
I think not
We have a higher high after the breakout of the downward line, with bullish momentum.
Who's ready for a FRED 50 Trillion Balance Sheet? I Am.
Japan has no completely lost control of their bond yields.
Japan has completely lost control the US Yield Curve Control.
The FRED paused (as I expected they had no choice).
The FRED realizing they need to initiate YCC / QE / Rate Cuts before end of 2023 or we're going to see an economic meltdown.
Option 1, let yields raise > mortgages blow up > bank collateral blows up bail out 100 Trillion.
Option 2, start YCC / QE / Rate Cuts down > things don't blow up but spend 50 Trillion.
What's hilarious is there is ZERO news coverage on this ZERO, the USA setup a YCC facility with the BOJ to patch bond yields yet the JAPANESE currency CANNOT handle it and the BOJ is starting to actually panic / tap out.
People waiting for a "country" to enact the third world war, I'll give you a hint they always start when some major financial system breaks. That's this this is where we are at.
Japan has a GDP of only 4.941 Trillion, if they initiate more YCC / QE they will start to turn into the Turkish Lira and then mass people are going to panic about US bonds.
THERE IS ZERO chance we get to 2025 without a FRED balance sheet of over at least 30 Trillion, buckle up.
Butterfly pattern in yieldsHad this mapped up for a while and been waiting to see if it fills.
Oddly, this filled recently in what turned out to be a false quote and then a days later made he real rally.
If the harmonic plays out, we'd be in the top of yield - a least for this swing.
Similarly US yields moving higher?Similar to Bunds but here with clear +ve divergence on indicators suggest higher yields forthcoming.
US10Y Weekly Bullish!TVC:US10
Hello traders!
Looking at US10Y Bond!
As we all know, Fed decision to hike interest rates has targeted 5.25% - 5.50% range.
Elliott Wave Theory demonstrates that, targeted range is a termination of Wave 5. Which will be followed by market correction AT LEAST back to Wave 4 at 3.25 percent. We got long 55 bullish days on US10Y bond market.
Bullish yields = Another bear market incoming?About to take out double top
Strong oil = Strong CPI = Higher yields to tame inflation
Strong case to further hikes
Bad for equities and could mark beginning of another bear maket
two possibilities for the crazy trainjust an update on my last chart of this. last time we were at the bottom trendline, now we are at the top.
10year yield US 10y yield has broken out of a 40 year old trend line.
This will be big. Whatever worked for last 40 years will not work going forward.
This is just a trend line. Not financial advice.
US10Y and DXY show no signs of stopping for the next 2 weeksThe DXY and 10Y are the cryptonite for stocks and crypto and show no hesitation in moving up. This trend line has not been broken, scary thing is the break through levels of where these can hit. DXY at 114$ has been catastrophic to everything and with inflation data we could be headed there.
US 10Y TREASURY: time for relaxation, or maybe not?The US inflation figures were published during the previous week, which showed that it is not going to be an easy task for the Fed to bring it back to its 2% target. At the same time, oil was traded above $90/barrel with some analysts’ prediction that it might easily reach the level of $100 till the end of this year. Taking current circumstances into account, the market was able only to move in one direction – bringing 10Y Treasury yields back toward the 4.30% level, where the benchmark is finishing the week.
Currently there is a bit of a tricky moment on the charts. Namely, 4.3% could be treated as sort of the resistance level for 10Y Treasury yields. But, taking into account that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, surprises might be possible in terms of a break of 4.3% level. However, if everything stays as anticipated by the market, then yields might come a bit back down to 4.2% levels.
