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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

US10Y Bearish Divergence tells us it may be time for correctionLast time we looked at the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), it gave us a technical bounce and profitable buy signal (see chart below) as the Higher Lows trend-line held: This time we get an opposite signal as the 1D RSI formed Lower Highs, while the price is on Higher Highs, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The asset is still supported both by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Higher Lows 3 trend-line since the May 04 Low. Our strategy is to sell and target a price slightly above each Higher Lows trend-line, then re-sell if a 1D candle closes below that Higher Lows trend-line. Target 1 is 4.745, if a 1D candle closes below Higher Lows 1, we will re-sell and target 4.645 (expected contact with the 1D MA50). If Higher Lows 2 break, then re-sell and target 4.465 on Higher Lows 3 and a projected contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
US 10 Year Treasury Bonds - TOP Call Coming! (For now) $TNXWhat Major Event will occur to force thirst for US and G20 Treasury Bonds? It's happening soon. I wish I had a crystal ball to say what will cause it, but it'll happen. We're almost there IMO 5.19-5.25% topline target - then I hope in whatever this Market or world event will force yields to go back down to 3.19-3.25% Before eventually continuing back up in the next major World event to create Inflation AKA Wave 2 Inflation
TVC:US10YLong
by acemoneypicks
10yr technical breakoutUS10yr is attempting a technical breakout. I never thought FedFunds would expand meaningfully beyond 3.5%, simply because the US Treasury could not handle rates that high. There is a major disconnect in IG/HY credit spreads. Duration is absolutely not reflecting the premium it should require. Everyone seems oblivious to the incoming pain, especially the US Treasury Secretary. See her on TV gushing over the “strong economy”. When asked about debt issuance she grins and says she isn’t worried at all. There will be buyers.. I would ask for how much longer at these rates. Price down yield up
TVC:US10YShort
by Jmenken
WHY RISING YIELDS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR SP500Have you ever wondered why on Earth equity traders cannot take their eyes off from US10Y chart? The answer is the alternative trade. What does that mean? When you invest in a company, such as buying its stock, you are taking risk. However, US10Y are riskless. This means every time you take a risk, you have to look at what the other less risky investments promise in returns. This is why US10Y matters. As it rises, it puts lots of question and uncomfortable thoughts into investors mind. Should the investor take risk and buy the stock hopefully earning 10% or should just invest in US Treasury bonds and receive a yummy fat coupons? That is why US10Y matters a lot and it is telling us that the 2024 holds volatile for assets. -Signalwyse Team
TVC:US10YEducation
by Elbruks
2
US Treasury Yields Surge: Impact on Brazilian Markets📈🇺🇸 ON THE RISE! The 10-year Treasury bond yield surged by 15 basis points in a single day, reaching 4.85%, the highest level since 2007. The 2-year Treasury bond yields also climbed to 5.21% (+12 basis points), approaching levels not seen since 2006. This increase followed a surprising boost in retail sales last month, raising speculation that the Federal Reserve (FED) might raise interest rates again. Despite the FED's expectation of another rate hike later this year, several policymakers have indicated in recent weeks that they do not believe further rate hikes are necessary. This implies that Americans are likely to continue paying more for their mortgages, credit card balances, and bank loans, potentially curbing demand for goods and services as uncertainty grows. The rise in interest rates in the United States has a significant impact on the Brazilian stock market, exerting negative pressure on the markets. The increase in U.S. rates can lead to a phenomenon known as "risk flight," where foreign investors seek refuge in U.S. Treasury bonds, considered a safe haven in times of financial turbulence. This investor migration towards U.S. Treasury bonds may result in capital outflows from the Brazilian stock market, pushing down stock prices and generating volatility. "Brazilian risk" becomes a concern, as economic and political uncertainty in the country may prompt investors to reallocate their resources into safer assets, such as U.S. Treasury bonds. Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor the relationship between U.S. interest rates and the behavior of financial markets in Brazil, as these events have significant implications for our investments and the economy. #Finance #Economy #Markets #FinancialMarkets #BrazilianRisk #Investments 💹🇧🇷🇺🇸💼💰
TVC:US10Y
by Barrosoo
1
US 10Y TREASURY: weight interest rate outlookThe US Treasury yield eased a bit during the previous week, after a sharp move to the upside, during the past two weeks. This comes as a result of market expectations that the Fed might skip further rate increases during the course of this year. Latest published inflation figures are indicating that the inflation is clearly on its down-path, but still there are some uncertainties which might impact its short reversal, especially due to geopolitical tensions. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week around 4.8% level, but soon eased and reached level of 4.5%. Still, yields are finishing the week around 4.6% level. As markets are now increasing probability for Fed to pause its further rate hikes during both November`s and December`s meetings, it could be expected for US Treasury yields to further ease. They will start the week ahead around 4.6%, with a high probability for 4.5% to be tested one more time, but there is no indication on charts that 4.4% might be reached in the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Bullish as long as the 1day MA50 holds.The 10year Bond Yields / US10Y is trading inside a Channel Up since May 1st. The last two weeks the price is pulling back after a Higher High rejection and Double Top on Resistance A (4.888), aiming at the bottom of the Channel Up. That is a buy opportunity to target 4.888 again. If on the other hand the 1day MA50 breaks (is untouched since July 20th), sell and target 4.222 (Support A). Keep an eye on the Rising Support of the 1day RSI also for early bearish signals. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:US10Y
by TheCryptagon
5
Markets embrace the Higher-for-Longer themeIt has been a big week of central bank policy announcements. While central banks in the US, UK, Switzerland, and Japan left key policy rates unchanged, the trajectory ahead remains vastly different. These central bank announcements were accompanied by a significant upward breakout in bond yields. Interestingly most of the increase in yields has been driven by higher real yields rather than breakeven inflation signifying a tightening of conditions. The bond markets appear to be acknowledging that until recession hits, yields are likely to keep rising. Connecting the dots The current stance of monetary policy continues to remain restrictive. The Fed’s dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate at 5.6%. The dot plot of rate projections shows policymakers (12 of the 19 policymakers) still foresee one more rate hike this year. Furthermore, the 2024 and 2025 rate projections notched up by 50Bps, a signal the Fed expects rates to stay higher for longer. The key surprise was the upgrade in growth and unemployment projections beyond 2023, suggesting a more optimistic outlook on the economy. The Fed’s caution is justified amidst the prevailing headwinds – higher oil prices, the resumption of student loan payments, the United Auto Workers strike, and a potential government shutdown. Quantitative tightening continues on autopilot, with the Fed continuing to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion per month. Risk assets such as equities, credit struggled this week as US yields continued to grind higher. The correction in risk assets remains supportive for the US dollar. A hawkish pause by the Bank of England In sharp contrast to the US, economic data has weakened across the board in the UK, with the exception of wage growth. The weakness in labour markets is likely to feed through into lower wages as discussed here. After 14 straights rate hikes, the weaker economic backdrop in the UK coupled with falling inflation influenced the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision to keep rates on hold at 5.25%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was keen to stress that interest rates are likely to stay at current levels for an extended period and only if there was evidence of persistent inflation pressures would further tightening in policy be required. By the next meeting in November, we expect economic conditions to move in the MPC’s favour and wage growth to have eased materially. As inflation declines, the rise in real interest rates is likely to drag the economy lower without the MPC having to raise interest rates further. That said, the MPC is unlikely to start cutting rates until this time next year and even then, we only expect to see a gradual decline in rates. Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance Having just tweaked Yield Curve Control (YCC) at its prior Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on 28 July, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its ultra easy monetary settings unchanged. The BOJ expects inflation to decelerate and said core inflation has been around 3% owing to pass-through price increases. Governor Ueda confirmed that only if inflation accompanied by the wages goal was in sight would the BOJ consider an end to YCC and a rate shift. With its loose monetary policy, the BOJ has been an outlier among major central banks like the Fed, ECB and BOE which have all been hiking interest rates. That policy divergence has been a key driver of the yen’s weakness. While headline inflation in Japan has been declining, core inflation has remained persistently higher. The BOJ meeting confirmed that there is still some time before the BOJ exits from negative interest rate policy which is likely to keep the Yen under pressure. The developments in US Monetary Policy feeding into a stronger US dollar are also likely to exert further downside pressure on the Yen. This year global investors have taken note that Japanese stocks are benefitting from the weaker Yen, relatively cheaper valuations and a long-waited return of inflation. Japanese companies are also becoming more receptive to corporate reform and shareholder engagement. Adopting a hedged Japanese exposure Taking a hedged exposure to dividend paying Japanese equities would be a prudent approach amidst the weaker yen. This goes to a point we often make - currency changes do not need to impact your foreign return, and you can target that local market return by hedging your currency risk. A hedged Japanese dividend paying equity exposure could enable an investor to hedge their exposure to the Yen. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
TVC:US10Y
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
$DXY & $TNX & Rates show signs of exhaustionThe US #Dollar has pulled back a bit: At MAJOR SUPPORT At Green Moving Avg = Support RSI is at 50 (neutral bullish unless crosses lower) Weekly TVC:DXY is 50-50 The RSI is curling over but the MACD is now above 0 = down trend over Hmmm, interesting scenario Not sure what to make of it Monthly #currency ------------------------------- The 2Yr #Yield broke the recent up trend. While it has performed better than shorter term #interestrates it's gotten weaker recently. The RSI & MACD have been trending lower for some time and it's much easier to see on a weekly! Look @ that Severe Negative Divergence! Could rates be DONE? ------------------------------- The 10 Yr #Yield on the other hand has built good deal of steam lately. Weekly it is overbought. Monthly it's overbought as well. But what is interesting is that the MACD has only been higher 1x than current scenario. MACD histogram lower (arrow) = future MACD neg crossover? However, it's nowhere near as weak as short term #interestrates TVC:TNX
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US 10Y TREASURY: is it over?The US Treasuries were in the market spotlight during the previous week. Their sell-off continued also during the week, when yields reached their highest level at 4.88% for 10Y benchmark, which was its highest level for the last 16 years. The yields started to relax a bit on Thursday, however, Friday’s strong jobs report supported market sentiment on potential for another Fed's rate hike during this year, and yield slipped back toward the 4.80% where they are finishing the week. As US inflation figures for September will be posted in the week ahead, the current question is whether the market has fully priced another rate hike by the Fed during the previous week or it will need some more time? Current yields are in a range of those from the 2008 financial crisis, and potential higher levels of 10Y Treasury bonds from those in 2008 would certainly send a negative sentiment to many holders of the US Treasury bonds all over the world, let aside consequences which many institutions could have due to negative valuations. At this moment some precaution could be advisable for the US Treasuries. Charts are pointing for some time on potential for reversal and so is for the week ahead. The level of 4.6% is pointed on the charts as a potential next stop of 10Y yields, however, markets might easily decide to act in a different way in the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
We've seen the top on yields in the US DollarENG: Very basic and simple info: Bond yields go UP when no one is interested in buying bonds. It's a way to entice market participants to buy in. - We saw yields on the 10 year paper go up in quite a quick move. - No one was buying long term US treasuries. - All of the sudden we saw an intervention by big money last week that went hand in hand with the Yen (I'll explain separately). - There hasn't been any explanation by anyone about this mysterious opportunistic buyer that made yields cap at around 4.88%. MY THEORY: The United States intervened and made these purchases themselves. WHAT IT TELLS ME: They want to keep the rates/yields right there and not be forced into more rate hikes. WHAT DO I EXPECT? I expect yields to start dropping and face value for the bonds to go up. ESP: Información muy básica y simple: Los rendimientos de los bonos suben cuando nadie está interesado en comprar bonos. Es una forma de atraer a los participantes del mercado para que compren. Vimos que los rendimientos en los papeles a 10 años subieron rápidamente. Nadie estaba comprando bonos del Tesoro a largo plazo de EE.UU. De repente, vimos una intervención por parte de grandes sumas de dinero la semana pasada que fue de la mano con el Yen (lo explicaré por separado). No ha habido ninguna explicación por parte de nadie sobre este misterioso comprador oportunista que hizo que los rendimientos se limitaran alrededor del 4.88%. MI TEORÍA: Los Estados Unidos intervinieron y realizaron estas compras ellos mismos. LO QUE ME DICE: Quieren mantener las tasas/rendimientos justo ahí y no verse forzados a incrementar más las tasas. ¿QUÉ ESPERO? Espero que los rendimientos comiencen a bajar y que el valor nominal de los bonos suba.
TVC:US10Y
by salomondrin