dont expect a slowdown in interest rates or bond yields sooncaught the 50/20 area as support, and indicators look primed for a turn around.
US10Y trade ideas
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS, DOLLAR TO RALLYThe TVC:DXY follows the Interest rates and also inversely correlated to the Bond Yields. Check Out my previous analysis on CBOT:ZB1!
I anticipate the the huge volume gap to be filled and from it's present Price levels. Therefore I am Bullish on Both Interest rates and Dollar, I expect dollar to reach Price levels of 106-108
US 10Y TREASURY: anticipating 25 bps hikeDebt-ceiling saga is finally over, which means that the US will not enter into technical default, which is something that the majority of market participants anticipated. It had some minor impact on the US 10Y yields. However, old topics are currently preoccupying the market, which is the question whether the Fed will increase interest rates at June`s FOMC meeting or it might be at July`s meeting. Anyway, anticipation of a further 25 bps hike is high, so the market reacted in line with its sentiment during the previous week.
The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week below 3.8%. It was quite evident on the charts that 3.8% was a peaking level at this round. Lowest weekly level was 3.57% on Thursday, however, Friday`s better than expected jobs figures pushed yields back to the level of 3.7%. This comes in line with anticipations of another 25 bps hike in June/Julys FOMC sessions.
As per current charts, there is some probability that markets would push yields back to the 3.8% level, however, there is no indication, neither in fundamentals, that the yields might go higher from this level. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability that 3.5% might be tested again. However, it should be noted for the future period, that potential further rate hikes by the Fed, above currently expected 25 bps, might drive 10Y yields toward the 4%.
US 10Y TREASURY: peaking at 3.8%? During the previous week the US Treasury yields were under influence of both debt-ceiling ongoing negotiations without an actual deal, and posted PCE data. As officially released data on PCE shows higher than expected monthly output of 0.4%, it heated expectations of market participants that the Fed will most probably continue with further rate increases of 25 bps in June`s meeting. Reaction of the market was an increase of Treasury yields, where 10Y bond yields increased from 3.6% up to 3.8%.
Insecurity is still high on the market, so it might be expected that bond yields will stay elevated during the following period of time. At this moment, there is no indication on charts that yields might go higher, reaching 4%, so at this moment there is a sort of peak at level of 3.8%. Still, if the Fed continues to increase interest rates, a 4% might easily become a target of 10Y bonds. For the week ahead the most important to watch is potential debt-negotiation deal, as the US might enter into default as soon as June 5th, as per Treasury Secretary Yellen. Hopefully, this will not be the end scenario. If deal is accomplished, the yields might revert a bit to the downside, probably to the level of 3.6%.
US10Y Approaching the top of the Channel Down. Sell opportunity.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the top of the (blue) Channel Down pattern, which was our bullish target on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below):
Despite not having hit it yet, we decide to close this long trade as we see more value in starting a sell-near-highs approach now. There is also a diverging Channel Down (dotted lines) involved and the maximum technical top that the price can make without breaking any pattern is the top of the Rectangle (4.090% Resistance). That will be our 2nd and final sell entry.
Pay attention to the 1D RSI also, which is approaching the overbought barrier (70.00) just like on February 21. Our bearish strategy targets the May 04 Low at 3.300%.
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10 Year Yield US NotesThis chart depicts bearish concerns by the bond traders.
They have been considered the smartest traders on the street for many decades.
This chart pattern is undergoing a major test
This chart eventually controls the direction of the stock market.
look what bond prices did herebond prices just recently broke their downtrend they are in since dept limit irritations came up. That means money is just flowing back into bonds again and this could be bottom.
10Y Yield Heading to 5.0% & 6.5%?Check out the AI patterns and my trend lines and see what you think... we've definitely broken the long-term down trend which everyone said would collapse.. pretty much everything, lol.
US10Y : 100 and 200 meetsThe chart above explains.
Great implication for those FX pairs that follows yield - JPY :)
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% is far away?The US Treasury yields were under influence of Fed Chair Powell's speech in Washington as well as ongoing negotiations regarding the debt-ceiling. Although Powell did not mention anything new in his speech over a potential monetary move in the future period, still, Lorie Logan, a Dallas Fed President, made a comment as of the end of the previous week, that monetary data are still not justifying the halt in Fed's rate hike. Market reaction was imminent, so the 10Y Treasuries surged by 7 bps to the highest weekly level at 3.72%. Still, yields are finishing the week around short-term support at $3.6%.
As long as insecurity in markets holds, and further rate hikes are not clearly communicated with the market, it could be expected for 10Y Treasuries to be elevated. The major resistance line at 3.6% has been breached on Friday. This means that the market will start week ahead by testing this level for some time. On the other hand, news on the debt-ceiling negotiations would certainly have an impact on Treasury yields, which might bring some volatility back on the market. On the opposite side, a clear break of 3.6% resistance has opened a way for a 4% next resistance. It should not be expected for this level to be reached in the week ahead, but in case that Fed continues with rate increases, a 4% might easily become the next target.
$US10Y Bull Flag on the weekly TVC:US10Y Bull Flag on the weekly chart, its bullish until it fails. Interest rates going higher will be a problem for stocks like NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META
Towards 10.650%!?-If we take into account that we form a nice head and shoulders at the bottom of the pandemic, prices would certainly seek the region of 10.65% of the US government's 10-year bond.
-If we consider the neck region as the starting point for tracing the fate of prices, we will have this bizarre thing happening, an explosion in "treasurys".
-On the weekly chart we have a pivot high that wants to form and is targeting the most recent top at 4.350%.
-Going down a little further, on the daily chart, the pivot that had formed on 05/12/2023 is about to reach the golden region of the FIB at 3,780%.
-We have the long average right below, and it could serve as support. We have Congress about to approve the new limit for the spending ceiling and if it is approved, it may be necessary to raise interest rates again.
-We have an unknown soon, which is: Will interest rates explode?
-Do your analyzes and good deals.
-Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop!
-See below for other graphic reviews!
US10Y Still room to rise but be ready to short the top.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) hit the downside target on our previous signal (see idea below) and is currently rising again:
Being above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we see the potential of a diverging Channel Down to emerge and establish itself (dotted lines). The completion of a 1D Death Cross, the first since August 25 2021, ensures that the long-term trend remains bearish. As a result, buy the rest of this bullish Lower High leg and be ready to sell again at the top of the original (blue) Channel Down.
If the 1D RSI gets rejected on the dashed Lower Highs trend-line, consider the potential of an early top and sell again. Our target for end of July is 3.150%.
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1d log scaleIn all the graphs, the increase in commodities and the decrease in interest rates are evident. Buy commodities with a buy position.
Correlation Analysis of US G 10 Yr Bonds Vs BitcoinThe 2nd way that I use an additional window is for correlation analysis. When certain assets move one direction with other moves opposite direction. Both US 10 yr bonds and Bitcoin formed reversal chart patterns. US G 10 Year Bonds formed Rising Wedge and Bitcoin formed Falling Wedge on weekly Time Frame. Both assets broke and retested nicely on their respectively chart pattern.
Correlation Analysis of US G 10 Yr Bonds Vs BitcoinThis intermarket analysis really helps to understand how money is flowing. I use it consistently throughout my entire process. Here we’re comparing the charts of US Government 10 Year Bonds (Blue line) and Bitcoin (orange line). As you can see, the two move different directions, you can see the US G 10 Yr Bonds broke and retested the rising MYL trendline also Bitcoin broke and retested the MYL descending trendline and if rates are falling. So the ratio between the two is a good indication of where the market thinks rates are going.
US 10Y TREASURY: a “dead cross”A $31.4 trillion debt ceiling was in the spotlight of the markets during the previous week. The possibility of the US debt default would certainly have large repercussions not only to the US but also would be felt through the rest of the world. As per currently available official data, the estimation is that the US might default on its debt in June or July, the latest, which is labeled by the government as “significant risk”. As for the Fed rate hikes, the majority of investors are of the opinion that the Fed should stop with further rate increases, as it might hurt the economy more than previously estimated.
The US 10Y T-notes ended the week at level of 3.463% as investors were digesting the potential outlook of the US economy after recent developments and rate hikes. The University of Michigan report has been released during the previous week, providing expectations on inflation for the next 5 years. The majority of participants in the survey answered 3.2%, which is higher from the 3.0% estimated during the previous month.
Current sentiment on US10Y T-notes is neutral, as RSI moves around level of 50. The moving average of 50 days just made a cross with its MA200 counterpart from the upside, forming a so-called “dead cross”. In technical analysis this indicates the high potential for a downside in the future period. However, for the week ahead, charts are pointing to some potential for the 10Y T-notes to reach 3.30%, but would most certainly oscillate around $3.40 during the week.
US10Y - JP10Y : A good sell nowThe chart above explains.
The 100MA just cross below the 200MA. It seems like the US10Y would likely continue to drop further.
This is a good SELL trade for USDJPY.
Good luck.
P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
US10Y - Watch out for speculative short coveringKey Takeaways:
- Large speculators are the most short they have been since 2018 (around -730k contracts)
- In 2018 they started to short cover (or buy back their short position) and US10-Year Treasury Yield started to drop.
- This could happen again so need to watch out.
Data:
US10Y : US10-Year Treasury Yield
COT:043602_F_NCP_L-COT:043602_F_NCP_S : US10-Year Treasury Note Net Futures Positioning by Large Speculators. From CME's Commitment of Traders Report. Calculated by taking total long position minus total short position.
NO MORE MONEY?Rates on short-dated bills have soared ahead of the so-called ‘X-date’ early next month, after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned last week that the government could run out of cash as soon as June 1.
It's worth noting that the debt ceiling issue has arisen multiple times over the years, and each time it has ultimately been resolved. While it's impossible to predict the outcome of the current situation, historical precedent suggests that it is likely to be resolved eventually. For investors with a high risk tolerance, buying short-term T-bills now could be a smart move that provides a higher rate of return than longer-term Treasury bonds.
One notable example of a similar situation occurred in 2011, when the US government faced a potential default due to a political standoff over raising the debt ceiling. The prospect of a default caused investors to fear that the government would not be able to meet its financial obligations, leading to a rise in short-term interest rates.
In the weeks leading up to the deadline, yields on one-month T-bills increased from around 0.02% to over 0.25%, while yields on three-month and six-month T-bills also rose significantly. However, once the debt ceiling was eventually raised, the yields on these short-term Treasuries returned to more typical levels.
Investors who had bought short-term Treasuries during this period would have seen a significant increase in yield, providing a lucrative opportunity. Similarly, the current debt ceiling issue could present a similar opportunity for investors who are willing to take on the associated risk.
Yield curve predicting Recession very soon.TVC:US10Y -US02Y
Looks like we are nearing the recession, it can take from 6 months to 12 months to occur, but for sure.
Recession signals:
1. Unemployment starts to raise.
2. Yield curve is above 0.
3. FEDRATES starts to stay firm and fed starts to cut the rates.(May be consequences)
Only few tech stocks are holding the market up, once they start correcting, we will see drawdown of almost all stocks.
Be prepared to take this golden opportunity to make fortune or atleast protect your assets.
Bear market or recessions are the best time for investment and long term growth as you get base prices and can make money by selling low risk calls.
Hold your bulls and unleash when the time is almost right.
