US10Y A break below the 1D MA50 will trigger a 2nd sell-off.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at the top of the Rectangle, so this week's rejection comes as a very natural consequence.
If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, the 2nd part of the Rectangle's bearish leg will most likely be triggered. As you see during this long-term pattern, we've had two -19.70% decline sequences and if the current one turns out to be of that magnitude, we are looking at a 3.300% target.
Note that 4 days ago we formed a 1D Golden Cross, technically a bullish pattern, but the previous 1D Death Cross (bearish pattern) turned out to be the Rectangle's bottom. On that notion, the Golden Cross may have formed the top.
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US10Y trade ideas
If yields make a new high I think they'll fly. If we draw a fib from the high to low of the last leg into the low in yields we can see the current bounce is off the 127 fib.
Most often when this is a correction the high comes around 161 (Which would be 7%). However, i find more often when we have a 127 bounce the 161 breaks and the following fibs hit.
If this TA norm plays out, it'd imply the FED is far from finished.
US10Y: Excellent long term sell opportunity.The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such significance.
Consequently, we consider the current level early enough for a low risk sell position on the long term, targeting the S3 (TP = 3.300%). As you see, the trading structure follows quite similar legs since November and right now we are most likely on a leg 2.
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US 10Y TREASURY: 4% will holdFor some time charts were pointing to a potential for US10Y to reach 4% level, which finally occurred during the previous week. Job figures released for June show that average hourly earnings continue to be increased, 0.4% m/m in June or 4.4% on a yearly basis, which might bring inflation further to the higher grounds, which will push FOMC to further increase interest rates. Market sentiment for an increase in July reached 92%, but whether the Fed will have the same perception is about to be seen as of the end of July, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled.
10Y Treasuries started the previous week around 3.8%, however, after released jobs data, yields jumped to the highest weekly level at 4.09%. Considering current sentiment, it could be expected for yields to continue to be elevated during the week ahead. At this moment, there is decreased potential that they might revert to the previous, 3.8% level.
US 10Y yield levels following the break of its 9-month dtrendDisclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS : TREASURY YIELDS VS DOLLARThe TVC:US10Y have taken out a major swing low and made some rally to the upside. ThoughI still expect more rally to come, which in my opinion, would eventually come
If the TVC:US10Y rallies to the buyside Liquidity at rates of 4.089% and 4.335% respectively, then I am expecting the price of dollar to rally to the upside
This analysis explanation would simply make me Bullish on TVC:DXY and bearish on all other asset classes
Knock Knock Who is there? it is me, US10Y 4.2%Knock knock.
Who's there?
I. O.
I. O. who?
Me.
When are you paying Treasury holders back?
Never!
Bullish Breakout ...to be continued...
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
US 10Y TREASURY: staying elevated The resilience of the US economy is evident in the latest posted economic figures. Both business and consumer sentiment is improving, while inflation, expressed through PCE continues to slow down. Still, the pending issue is what the FOMC will do at their meetings till the end of this year. As per Fed`s Chair Powell comments, two more rate increases should be expected. Whether that will actually occur, is to be seen till the end of this year, still, possibility of “soft landing” holds.
The 10Y Treasury ended Friday`s trading by reaching a level of 3.89%. It seems that the market is anticipating further rate hikes which might stay for a longer period of time at higher levels. With this move, a new chapter on charts was opened, in which terms, a road toward the 4% is now open. This level might be tested in the coming period. As for the week ahead, 10Y yields will open at level of 3.90%. It could not be noted at this moment whether yields will go higher from this level. In case of a short reversal, 3.8% will be tested, with lower probability that yields might return to the 3.6% level.
Ten year yield testing this channelThe US treasury bond ten year yield has been in a down trend channel for the last 9 months in the context of an uptrend that started in 2020. This could be a bull flag. The price now is at the top resistance line of that channel. A breakout could indicate higher inflation and interest rate expectations.
US 10Y yield looks to be failing at its downtrendDisclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
US 10Y TREASURY: pending 3.6% levelFed Chair Powell was speaking in front of the US Senate during the previous week, and confirmed what was previously said, that the Fed would most probably hit the rates for two more times till the end of this year. Market expectations are that the rates would be increased by additional 50 bps, which means two times 25 bps hikes. The 10Y US benchmark yields were moving around 3.8% at the beginning of the week, but ended the week around 3.68%. Still, Friday's trading close was at a level of 3.73%. The market continues to perceive an inverted yield curve, meaning that the rates would certainly have to go down. Charts are also perceiving some further relaxation in 10Y yields.
Charts continue to point to the level of 3.6% as the next target of 10Y yields. This level might be tested in the coming week or two. On the opposite side, at this moment there is no indication that the yields might go higher from 3.8% and there is a low probability that this level might be tested for one more time in the coming week.
10y and 2y yield curves inverted--market crash when?The blue line is the inverted yield curve 10y-2y. Two other times where it got to low levels preceded the 2001 and 2008 crashes. But the orange circles mark where the crashes actually began and the markets fell, several months later after the inverted yields bottomed. The bottoms last five to eight months each before the inverted yields started to resolve and move up again. But it was 6-8 months later when the crashes began. If this holds true for today, our bottoming process is just getting started so we could be six months from the inverted yield curve moving up. Then it could take six more months before a crash begins.
Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things:
-Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy.
-US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy.
-US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception.
-US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability.
Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy.
If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.