US10Y : 100 and 200 meetsThe chart above explains.
Great implication for those FX pairs that follows yield - JPY :)
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
US10Y trade ideas
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% is far away?The US Treasury yields were under influence of Fed Chair Powell's speech in Washington as well as ongoing negotiations regarding the debt-ceiling. Although Powell did not mention anything new in his speech over a potential monetary move in the future period, still, Lorie Logan, a Dallas Fed President, made a comment as of the end of the previous week, that monetary data are still not justifying the halt in Fed's rate hike. Market reaction was imminent, so the 10Y Treasuries surged by 7 bps to the highest weekly level at 3.72%. Still, yields are finishing the week around short-term support at $3.6%.
As long as insecurity in markets holds, and further rate hikes are not clearly communicated with the market, it could be expected for 10Y Treasuries to be elevated. The major resistance line at 3.6% has been breached on Friday. This means that the market will start week ahead by testing this level for some time. On the other hand, news on the debt-ceiling negotiations would certainly have an impact on Treasury yields, which might bring some volatility back on the market. On the opposite side, a clear break of 3.6% resistance has opened a way for a 4% next resistance. It should not be expected for this level to be reached in the week ahead, but in case that Fed continues with rate increases, a 4% might easily become the next target.
$US10Y Bull Flag on the weekly TVC:US10Y Bull Flag on the weekly chart, its bullish until it fails. Interest rates going higher will be a problem for stocks like NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META
Towards 10.650%!?-If we take into account that we form a nice head and shoulders at the bottom of the pandemic, prices would certainly seek the region of 10.65% of the US government's 10-year bond.
-If we consider the neck region as the starting point for tracing the fate of prices, we will have this bizarre thing happening, an explosion in "treasurys".
-On the weekly chart we have a pivot high that wants to form and is targeting the most recent top at 4.350%.
-Going down a little further, on the daily chart, the pivot that had formed on 05/12/2023 is about to reach the golden region of the FIB at 3,780%.
-We have the long average right below, and it could serve as support. We have Congress about to approve the new limit for the spending ceiling and if it is approved, it may be necessary to raise interest rates again.
-We have an unknown soon, which is: Will interest rates explode?
-Do your analyzes and good deals.
-Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop!
-See below for other graphic reviews!
US10Y Still room to rise but be ready to short the top.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) hit the downside target on our previous signal (see idea below) and is currently rising again:
Being above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we see the potential of a diverging Channel Down to emerge and establish itself (dotted lines). The completion of a 1D Death Cross, the first since August 25 2021, ensures that the long-term trend remains bearish. As a result, buy the rest of this bullish Lower High leg and be ready to sell again at the top of the original (blue) Channel Down.
If the 1D RSI gets rejected on the dashed Lower Highs trend-line, consider the potential of an early top and sell again. Our target for end of July is 3.150%.
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1d log scaleIn all the graphs, the increase in commodities and the decrease in interest rates are evident. Buy commodities with a buy position.
Correlation Analysis of US G 10 Yr Bonds Vs BitcoinThe 2nd way that I use an additional window is for correlation analysis. When certain assets move one direction with other moves opposite direction. Both US 10 yr bonds and Bitcoin formed reversal chart patterns. US G 10 Year Bonds formed Rising Wedge and Bitcoin formed Falling Wedge on weekly Time Frame. Both assets broke and retested nicely on their respectively chart pattern.
Correlation Analysis of US G 10 Yr Bonds Vs BitcoinThis intermarket analysis really helps to understand how money is flowing. I use it consistently throughout my entire process. Here we’re comparing the charts of US Government 10 Year Bonds (Blue line) and Bitcoin (orange line). As you can see, the two move different directions, you can see the US G 10 Yr Bonds broke and retested the rising MYL trendline also Bitcoin broke and retested the MYL descending trendline and if rates are falling. So the ratio between the two is a good indication of where the market thinks rates are going.
US 10Y TREASURY: a “dead cross”A $31.4 trillion debt ceiling was in the spotlight of the markets during the previous week. The possibility of the US debt default would certainly have large repercussions not only to the US but also would be felt through the rest of the world. As per currently available official data, the estimation is that the US might default on its debt in June or July, the latest, which is labeled by the government as “significant risk”. As for the Fed rate hikes, the majority of investors are of the opinion that the Fed should stop with further rate increases, as it might hurt the economy more than previously estimated.
The US 10Y T-notes ended the week at level of 3.463% as investors were digesting the potential outlook of the US economy after recent developments and rate hikes. The University of Michigan report has been released during the previous week, providing expectations on inflation for the next 5 years. The majority of participants in the survey answered 3.2%, which is higher from the 3.0% estimated during the previous month.
Current sentiment on US10Y T-notes is neutral, as RSI moves around level of 50. The moving average of 50 days just made a cross with its MA200 counterpart from the upside, forming a so-called “dead cross”. In technical analysis this indicates the high potential for a downside in the future period. However, for the week ahead, charts are pointing to some potential for the 10Y T-notes to reach 3.30%, but would most certainly oscillate around $3.40 during the week.
US10Y - JP10Y : A good sell nowThe chart above explains.
The 100MA just cross below the 200MA. It seems like the US10Y would likely continue to drop further.
This is a good SELL trade for USDJPY.
Good luck.
P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
US10Y - Watch out for speculative short coveringKey Takeaways:
- Large speculators are the most short they have been since 2018 (around -730k contracts)
- In 2018 they started to short cover (or buy back their short position) and US10-Year Treasury Yield started to drop.
- This could happen again so need to watch out.
Data:
US10Y : US10-Year Treasury Yield
COT:043602_F_NCP_L-COT:043602_F_NCP_S : US10-Year Treasury Note Net Futures Positioning by Large Speculators. From CME's Commitment of Traders Report. Calculated by taking total long position minus total short position.
NO MORE MONEY?Rates on short-dated bills have soared ahead of the so-called ‘X-date’ early next month, after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned last week that the government could run out of cash as soon as June 1.
It's worth noting that the debt ceiling issue has arisen multiple times over the years, and each time it has ultimately been resolved. While it's impossible to predict the outcome of the current situation, historical precedent suggests that it is likely to be resolved eventually. For investors with a high risk tolerance, buying short-term T-bills now could be a smart move that provides a higher rate of return than longer-term Treasury bonds.
One notable example of a similar situation occurred in 2011, when the US government faced a potential default due to a political standoff over raising the debt ceiling. The prospect of a default caused investors to fear that the government would not be able to meet its financial obligations, leading to a rise in short-term interest rates.
In the weeks leading up to the deadline, yields on one-month T-bills increased from around 0.02% to over 0.25%, while yields on three-month and six-month T-bills also rose significantly. However, once the debt ceiling was eventually raised, the yields on these short-term Treasuries returned to more typical levels.
Investors who had bought short-term Treasuries during this period would have seen a significant increase in yield, providing a lucrative opportunity. Similarly, the current debt ceiling issue could present a similar opportunity for investors who are willing to take on the associated risk.
Yield curve predicting Recession very soon.TVC:US10Y -US02Y
Looks like we are nearing the recession, it can take from 6 months to 12 months to occur, but for sure.
Recession signals:
1. Unemployment starts to raise.
2. Yield curve is above 0.
3. FEDRATES starts to stay firm and fed starts to cut the rates.(May be consequences)
Only few tech stocks are holding the market up, once they start correcting, we will see drawdown of almost all stocks.
Be prepared to take this golden opportunity to make fortune or atleast protect your assets.
Bear market or recessions are the best time for investment and long term growth as you get base prices and can make money by selling low risk calls.
Hold your bulls and unleash when the time is almost right.
XAUUSD GOLD SELL due to Bonds?Dear Traders,
We can see US10Y Bonds nearing a support, i suspect this support to be respected what doy ou think?
Greetings,
Ziilllaatrades
Interest will go upInterest rates are likely to go up. FED will remain focused on controlling inflation. Job losses we are seeing are not enough to stop FED action, as FED believes these are not numerous enough to impact economy. FED also doesn't believe recent bank issues are a contagion.
This idea is an expression that interest rates will go up, therefore best play is to go long "interest rate" in whatever way you can, through interest rate swaps or whatever. Assume interest rate rise
US 10 Year Yield On The Cusp of Breaking DownThe 10 Year Yield has been trying to hold this B point level as Support for the longest time but everytime it tries to bounce it gets pushed right back down and in the most recent try we saw it come up to test the moving averages while it Bearishly Diverged and began a Death Cross. If we can get a serious BAMM Breakdown from here it coulkd go down all the way to 1.4% which would likely coincide with a huge decline in the DXY and a rise in the stock market.
Analyzing Inflation: COVID-19, Energy, Conflict & LaborInflation, a critical financial and economic indicator, has been significantly impacted by various factors in recent years. This article delves into the influence of COVID-19, changes in work patterns, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war on inflation, presenting a comprehensive analysis of our present financial landscape.
COVID-19 and Supply Chains: A Recipe for Inflation
The global pandemic, COVID-19, significantly disrupted supply chains worldwide. With a combination of limited supply and robust or surging demand, the result was inevitable - a price increase, a key driver of inflation. Rising costs of materials, labor, energy, and transportation, all amplified by the pandemic, made goods more expensive to manufacture and transport, further contributing to inflation.
The aftermath of these disruptions led to a ripple effect: a rise in supply chain costs. Consumers facing higher prices found themselves with reduced disposable income, which could, in theory, lower demand. However, the essential nature of many goods affected by these disruptions likely negated this potential offset, fueling inflation further.
In the long run, these disruptions could lead to persistent inflation. The pandemic has exposed the fragility of 'just-in-time' inventories and the impact of underinvestment in global commodity supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures. Consequently, inflation may become a more permanent fixture, disrupting business planning and forecasting and adding another layer of complexity to the economic environment.
Labor Market Shifts: From Crisis to Recovery
The pandemic has considerably affected the labor market, resulting in significant shifts and shortages across various sectors. The initial outbreak led to severe job losses, with the global unemployment rate peaking at 13%. However, as economies start to reopen, we're seeing an interesting trend: people voluntarily leave their roles, even as worker demand increases.
This labor shortage, induced by changing demographics, border controls, immigration limits, and the call for better pay and flexible work arrangements, presents another challenge in our economic landscape. Furthermore, the acceleration of digitalization and the gig economy could have enduring effects on labor supply and productivity. The crisis has potentially long-term implications, like automation's role in slowing the employment recovery in service occupations.
Remote Work: A Double-Edged Sword
The rise of remote work, while offering significant societal and economic benefits, also carries potential inflationary effects. Increased demand for houses/apartments, home office equipment, utilities, and other home-centric products and services has led to price hikes, accelerating inflation.
Moreover, while remote work has the potential to boost productivity and create new job opportunities, it also brings challenges. Difficulties in collaboration, communication hurdles, and blurred work-life boundaries could negatively impact productivity, painting a more complex picture of remote work's overall effect on productivity and inflation.
Energy Decisions: A Balancing Act
The decision to reduce investments in nuclear energy and fossil fuels can influence inflation and the overall energy market. A decline in energy production can lead to price increases due to supply-demand imbalances, contributing to inflation. Moreover, reduced domestic energy production may increase dependence on imported energy, which, if more expensive or if international energy prices rise, could also lead to inflation.
Transitioning to green energy without adequate investment and planning could lead to shortages and disruptions, driving up energy prices and contributing to inflation. While renewable energy technologies are advancing rapidly, they cannot fully replace the capacity provided by nuclear and fossil fuels in many countries. This could lead to energy shortages and price increases, particularly if the transition to green energy outpaces the technology's readiness.
The variability of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, presents another challenge. Without adequate energy storage and grid infrastructure investment to manage this variability, energy supply disruptions and price spikes could become more common.
Moreover, a rapid transition to green energy could displace existing energy jobs before adequate green energy jobs are created. This could lead to economic instability and potentially contribute to inflation. While the long-term costs of renewable energy can be lower than fossil fuels, the initial investment required to build renewable energy infrastructure can be high. Higher energy prices can pass these costs to consumers, contributing to inflation.
In conclusion, while the transition to green energy is crucial for addressing climate change, this transition must be well-planned and well-managed. Policymakers must strike a careful balance between the urgency of climate action and the need to maintain energy security and economic stability.
The Russia-Ukraine War: Geopolitical Inflation
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also played a role in driving inflation. The war has disrupted the supply of essential commodities such as oil, gas, metals, wheat, and corn, pushing their prices upwards. These nations are major suppliers of these commodities, and their reduced supplies have led to sharp price increases worldwide.
Furthermore, the conflict has exacerbated global supply chain disruptions, already strained by the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led to heightened inflationary expectations among businesses and consumers. Additionally, the war has significantly increased oil and gas prices, particularly in Europe, directly impacting inflation and household spending.
The war has also weakened global economic confidence, further fueling inflationary pressures. Countries already grappling with financial challenges, such as Lebanon and Zimbabwe, have been severely impacted by the inflationary effects of the Russia-Ukraine war. Overall, the conflict is estimated to add about 2% to global inflation in 2022 and 1% in 2023, compared to pre-war forecasts.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the dynamic interplay of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war has significantly influenced inflation. Policymakers, economists, and businesses must navigate this complex landscape to develop effective strategies that mitigate inflationary pressures while promoting sustainable economic growth. As we move forward, we must continue to monitor these factors to understand their ongoing effects on inflation and the broader economy.
Key short term levels to watch on the US 10Y yieldUS GDP Q1 GDP figures were released yesterday and showed a significantly slower rate of growth that expected, printing an overall figure of 1.1% Q1 growth.
The problem facing investors is that economic data suggests that inflation could remain sticky and the central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week.
So we are taking a look at the US 10Y yield chart to identify the key levels that you need to watch short term.
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US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD ANALYSISThe long term bond yields are falling. US 10 Year yield may find support at 3.2- 3.0 level before pausing, consolidating and breaking out or reversing.3.0 -3.2 zone is also previous support/resistance where the market has reversed before.
4-27-23 [us10y]hello,
here is one more layer of confluence,
to back up my spx case.
---
to the untrained eye, this looks like total, nonsensical chop,
but to a space explorer, it can easily be viewed as a 3-3-3.
what is a 3-3-3?
glad you ask anon:
a 3-3-3, is a very corrective structure,
designed to kill time mostly-
labeled w-x-y.
wxy = double zig-zag
these channel nicely,
as portrayed in the image above.
---
once this double zig-zag concludes into the summer time,
i predict the stock market will crash.
---
enjoy it till then, and as always ---
this is not financial advice,
i am merely an artist,
bringing to you,
art.
US10 YEAR REVISITING 4.00 AREA?Looking at US10Y Bond
Technical analysis suggests that the bond market will revisit 4.00 area in a completion of Bearish Bat Pattern.
#Following Market closely
US10Y: Last dip before a medium term reboundThe US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down ever since its market peak on October 21st. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 54.601, MACD = 0.300, ADX = 17.030) giving a mixed tone to the price action but based on the December-January Lows we can see the the Channel Down has one last dip to make before it bottoms and rebounds on the medium term. We will wait for that pullback around 3.250 and buy targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 3.750).
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