US 10 YR YIELD - ObservationThe US10YR has now retraced to the 200dma and close to the yearly pivot point.
US10Y trade ideas
US 2/10 yield spread in a for a massive reversalUS 2/10 yield spread approaching macro support. TA bottom might be slowly forming too (need confirmation)
Expecting the spread to reach 0 before the summer while the rest will be history
buckle up
Looking for #us10y to find Higher LowsLooking for #us10y to find Higher Lows and continuation to the upside as new highs were made. #us10y moves opposite to the #crypto market.
bombs awayAre #gold shorts paying attention to anything?
All support is lost on #us10y, and now even closing below weekly EMA30 (shown in blue)!
Looking to Short 10's On a breakdown on the daily, ill be shorting 10 year bonds.
High on all the higher timeframes.
US yields looking for another move upLooks to have formed +ve divergence on RSI.
FED are NOT going to pause/pivot in coming weeks. Data still ok as a whole and until much softer yields have to go/stay higher for longer than people think.
Big Four Macro Outlook: 10 Year RatesI begin each year reviewing the long term technical positions of the "Big Four." 10 Year rates, SPX, Commodities, and the US Dollar. Since by profession I am a rates/credit portfolio manager and trader, I always start with rates. Granted, macro doesn’t typically impact shorter term (swing, daily and weekly) trading, but having a framework for markets and for recognizing change is important. Last year’s thoughts, including extensive fundamental background, are linked.
In this piece I will recap my views on the monthly chart and follow next week with my view on the weekly chart and conclusions.
A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield = a bull market in bonds.
Over the last four decades bonds had consistently and reliably made lower highs and lower lows. The entire bull market was defined by a broad declining channel (A-B, C-D). The A-B downtrend line represented the "stride of demand" or the zone where buyers consistently emerged and the C-D line represented the "overbought line" or the zone where supply consistently emerged.
From 2012 forward there were growing signs that the long downtrend was aging. Four things stood out. 1) The repeated failure to push to the oversold line (C-D). 2) The flattening out of the decline where each push to a new yield low only covered around 100 bps. 3) The 2018 spike to 3.25% that weakened the primary A-B downtrend. 4) In March of 2020 bonds pushed to the area around the center of the channel, and again failed to push into the overbought line (C-D), suggesting that demand was tiring. These very visible change of behavior strongly suggested that the 40 year downtrend was in danger.
Now, the clear break and acceleration above the A-B downtrend has moved the long trend from bullish to neutral. While it’s likely that the move above November 2018 pivot @ 3.25% coupled with the changes of behavior mark the beginning of a long term bear market, a higher low (perhaps forming over the first half of 2023) is needed to complete/confirm that change.
Note the additional changes in behavior. The 400 bps move from 0.33% to 4.33% represents the single largest bearish move since the inception of the bull market in September 1981 and the current MACD oscillator level has far exceeded the levels that marked yield highs over the course of the entire bull market.
Triple Screen: Daily, Weekly, Monthly:
There are several key fundamental points around rates:
-The defining macro characteristic of the 40 year bull market has been the continual fall in the inflation rate. If that is changing, the secular bond trend is likely to also change.
-If the trend in inflation is changing, the negative correlation between bonds and equity that drives 60/40 allocation and risk parity investing is likely to flip and become positive. In other words, bonds and equity would, outside of periods of panic, rise and fall together destroying the diversification benefit. This has been the historical norm and I expect that the market will gradually move in that direction.
-The caveat being this: Quantitative easing removed the value proposition from bonds, when equities began to decline this year bonds COULDN'T provide a safe haven… they were already far too expensive, particularly in context of a Federal Reserve that was aggressively tightening monetary policy, that is no longer the case. Bonds, while still expensive can again provide a tactical hedge should risk assets weaken dramatically.
-At first glance, this seems at odds with the with the change in correlation discussed above, but it is a difference between the secular tide verses the intermediate wave.
-Most substantive bond rallies have been the result of a crisis that created a flight to quality. In an economy that is overly financialized and levered, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain, creating a new crisis and a subsequent flight to quality rally. While so far, there is little evidence of a systemic crisis, the lagged effect of the rapid increase in rates in an overly financialized system demands attention.
Bottom Line: While there is still more work to be done to confirm the trend change, I believe the bond trend is finally changing as the world moves from the deflationary backdrop of the last several decades to an inflationary backdrop. I will be a much better seller of rallies and bearish technical setups in the weekly/intermediate perspective.
Good Trading:
Stewart Taylor, CMT
Chartered Market Technician
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
US10YUS 10-Year Bond Yield | Chart #1 | The rejection of the re-test of the channel breakdown is seeing further downside follow-through. The yield is trading near the early-December lows of 3.4% of which a downside breach would create a further short term technical tailwind for bonds (i.e. yields down, bond prices up).
US 10-Year Bond Yield | Chart #2 (not shown) | Note that the yield is close to it's first re-test of it's rising 200-day moving average since 29 December 2021. Usually, the 1st test after a prolonged absense is met with support, possible an overshoot to the downside followed by a rebound. Let's see how it acts if and when it gets there.
US10Y Hit a 9month support. Critical moment for the market.The US10Y hit today, in the aftermath of the 6.5% U.S. CPI, the Higher Lows (HL) Support line that has been in effect for 9 months (started on March 7th 2022). With 1D technicals bearish but not heavily (RSI = 42.655, MACD = -0.035, ADX = 36.284), the trend is undecided at the moment, at least on the short-term.
Though we see a clear Channel Down since the October 21st 2022 Top, the price can give a short-term bounce back to (and above) the 1D MA50 and the top of the Channel. Eventually, with the macro-economic outlook on the bond market changing, we believe the bearish trend will prevail on the long-term, with our immediate target being the 1D MA200.
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US 10Y Yield at key inflection pointMarket looks fragile, and has potential for a sharp reversal lower.
US10YTesting the waters here- as i have taken a long break from TA and want to experiment with new ideas.
Will the backup hold?The 10 year T is fighting the line. A bounce and break of current downtrend could mean more pain. But a break of the secondary support would demolish the bears as it would signal my long-expected blow-off top in the U.S. stock market. Stay tuned.
10YR-02YR Inversion (Daily) 01/11/2023Well this inversion is probably more popular than the 10yr-03mo, and it also keeps looking worse! They are both inverted pretty deep as I mentioned on the 10-3mo published chart. This is also often a key leading recession indicator.
10YR-3MO Inversion (Daily) - 01/11/2023Well this keeps looking worse! Many follow the 10-2y, some prefer this 10y-3mo yield curve. They are both inverted pretty deep. This is often a key leading recession indicator.
US10y vs FED rate. Should u put $ into bank or buy gold? 10/Jan/US2Y and 10Y bonds yields always “follow” FED rate paths. Now we “see” some “experts” encouraged us to “save” money into banks (especially USD denominated a.c) to gain higher rate. Hope to enjoy high fixed guaranteed return like early 1980s which was above 10%!!! Looking at those chart and gold price do you think “fixed deposits “ into bank is “worth” as investments?
Are the 2 and 10 year bond markets calling JPOW's bluff?In this video I cover the divergence between the 2 and 10 year treasuries and the recent FOMC press conference language. Jerome Powell is promising one thing (continued rate increases), while the bond market seems to be claiming otherwise (Fed pause incoming). Who's right? Let's take a closer look.
Potential bull flag pattern formation 1D timeframe on US10Yjust sharing a potential bull flag pattern formation on the daily timeframe for US10Y. current candle bounces on the 0.5 fib level, would affect negatively for stocks and BTC if this plays out.
USA need to cover chart and US10Y told us why?As we can see on chart long term dynamic trend line broke and after a short correction on US10Y, we should be ready to bull run up to 5% and that is a top range of long time coverage for US10Y, Hope not to see more up and I think we will start another range time box as shown.
Boxes 1 and 2; some how have same time range but most of time the chart fluctuated in range boxes 3 ( range 3.1% to 5.6%) and I think it is time to start another range box 3 ?!
US10Y - US03MThis is another thing that is getting everyone EXCITED.
It is going to invert soon. Once that happen, as you can see in the past, the Fed will PIVOT.
Analysis also indicated that the MOVE Index shown previously will hit a new low the same time this 10y03m inverts.
THE FED TYPICALLY CUTS RATES ON AVERAGE TWO MONTHS AFTER THE MOVE REACHES BOTTOM.
So do you think the Fed will Pivot???
All I can say is expect more volatility this coming weeks.
P/S : As always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
Yield curve vs SPXMarket crash comes when yield curve starts rising again.
Currently, it's going down.
Eventually it'll consolidate and start rising again.
That's when you sell
My estimate is Sept / Oct 2023.
TA indicesTA indices, Quants, monthly's, weekly's, Fib level/-time, EW count, scenario's bullish/bearish.
Next Recession ProjectionDescription
The purpose of this idea is, based on past recessions, to try to predict when the next one could occur. Many factors could influence the future, but for now, we will focus on two of the most known indicators to predict a recession, the Yield Curve Inversion(ICV) and the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator. Usually, when the ICV stays below 0 for a period of time, it indicates that a recession will occur in the future. As can be seen, this indicator predicted the last three recessions: '90, '00, and '08. The ’20 recession is excluded. Moreover, the SPX chart is added to reference where the markets could go.
The projection is indicated with pink color.
Yield Curve Inversion Period
The ICV period ranges between the time when the ICV went below 0% and the time of the last touch to 0%. The average for the last three periods is 425D. We are in the current period for 183D. Usually, while the ICV is below 0%, there is a high chance that the FED will not increase the interest rate or even pivot, as seen in that #1 and #2 periods.
#1: 455D
#2: 304D
#3: 516D
Projected:
#4: 426D
SPX
While the ICV is below 0%, the SPX moved on sideways or even upwards.
US Interest Rate
The average for the last three periods is 253D.
#1: 120D
#2: 214D
#3: 426D
Projected:
#4: 243D
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
According to this indicator, once the ICV touches the last time 0%, there is a delay until the effects of a recession are seen. The average for the last three periods is 244D.
#1: 214D
#2: 213D
#3: 307D
Projected:
#4: 244D
Conclusion
A recession could start at the beginning of 2024. This would also coincide with the Presidential Cycle theory, where the third year of the US presidential mandate is more bullish than bearish, and the fourth year is more bearish than bullish.
Please keep in mind that this is purely speculation based on previous data, and there are many other factors that can change the outcome.
US10Y 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Interest Rate History (1913 - 2022) One of the biggest "shocks" in the 22' financial markets is the breaking of the long-term (weekly) trend in Interest Rates — specifically the U.S. 10-Year Treasury (US10Y), which has gone through now two long-term trend cycles since it’s history dating back to 1913.
Given the inflation fight that the Federal Reserve is currently waging, while at the same time keeping in mind the structural debt-load that the U.S. 🇺🇸 is current burdened with, this begs the question can rates actually go higher from here?
While we do not know the answer as to the actual trajectory of interest rates into 23’ and beyond — what we do know is that given the structural debt load, we can speculate that at some point rates will likely be forced lower as a proxy of stabilizing inflation and also total debt servicing obligations of the U.S. Government.
Also keep in mind comments by J. Powell and the Federal Reserve as they have been preparing investors for a new macro regime of “higher for longer” .
Should this actually play out and not just be the "hawkish tone" of the Federal Reserve that is helping to push interest rates higher, investors must consider the ramifications that could come IF we have truly entered a new (rising) interest rate regime that includes structurally higher rates as part of the next 40+ year historical cycles.
Here is the same chart of the (US10Y) paired against the backdrop of other macro indicators including Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, as they give us insight as to both the bull and bear thesis for yields moving forward:
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Debt Total Public (GFDEBTN) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Central Bank Balance Sheet (USCBBS) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. U.S. Liabilities & Capital (WRESBAL) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. S&P 500 (SPX, SPY) 📊
U.S. 10-Year (US10Y) vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, DIA) 📊
What is your take on the forward trajectory of interest rates?
Have we officially broken the 40+ year downtrend on structurally low interest rates, given the potential for entrenched inflationary pressures within the U.S. economy?
Or, will rates be forced lower as structural debt obligations of the U.S. are far too great to support the notion of "higher yields for longer"?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇🏼
