2y 10y spread re-steepeningAfter inversion, re-steepening signifies the impending materialization of the stress in the financial system and economy. Looks like this is just the beginning of this downturn and imo we're headed for a massive recession.
US10Y trade ideas
Go long stocks short 10y bond yieldLook at where the 10y yield is currently trading - its right above its 200 period moving average at major resistance. This is yet another indicator to me that stocks have bottomed and inflation will start to fall away this year. Bond yields should fall away again as we move through the year.
I bought heavily into stocks last week, amazon at $2050, Netflix at $170, Meta at $189, Snap at $22 plus so many others. This bond chart really shows me that things are due for a major reverse now and if you caught my dollar (DXY) short post on Friday you are already massively in profit in that short too. There are so many great opportunities now to add to stocks on dips and keep shorting the dollar (provided we see a nice steady drop in CPI figures each month for the rest of the year).
US Government Bonds 10Y long-term viewIn the long-term, US Government Bonds 10Y could start another bullish rally. Looking at the Fibonacci, we have recovered to the 23.6% and managed to move above. A possible pullback could bring us back up to 3.00%, and after that, we could start with a new bullish impulse toward the 38.2% level (6,25%). The target before that level is the 5.00% level. This scenario could positively impact the dollar index in the coming period.
US10Y Is more selling pressure ahead?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) confirmed our huge Bearish Divergence spotted on our October 25 analysis and started the first pull-back since July:
The price is now below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 19 and today is testing it as a Resistance. A double candle close above the 1D MA50, restores the bullish trend towards the October 21 High. Failure to establish two 1D candle closings above it, should most likely extend the selling pressure towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was where the pull-backs of March 07 and November 09 2021 found Support. A closing below it targets the final long-term Support of 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As you see on the chart, that still wouldn't change the long-term bullish trend on the US10Y as it would hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (green). On the other hand a closing below the 1D MA200, would constitute a long-term trend change to bearish and target first the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
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Yield Curve has NEVER been inverted so much! UH OH !Yield curve is at -0.70% currently
The lowest it's ever been was before the DOT COM BUBBLE at -0.5%.
Does this mean that the next CRASH will be worst than the DOT CUM BUBBLE? dammmm....
How much time do we have? I say 6-12 months.
Yield curve = US10Y - US02Y
Yield curve inverts moreQuite a big move on the yield curve inversion (10 year below 3 month) indicating a very negative outlook for the economy.
US10Y : A peak in EFFR ???The US10Y is now moving deeper below the EFFR.
It is said if it falls below by 25 - 50 bps, we are seeing the PEAK in the EFFR.
This is the BOND market signaling the end of rate hike. If this is the case, we can see long term bond yield falling, followed by the short term later. One notable sign is the 10s02s which is falling further into -ve territory.
PIVOT is close.
Lets watch this closely from now on.
US 10-Year Bond YieldShort term trend has been lower, partly supporting the rally in equities. This move has also supported the buy/long idea on the TLT ETF.
Yield Curve Inversion Continues: More Pain Ahead Later?This post will provide a quick macro update concerning the yield curve inversion in US bond markets, which have often (though not always) been followed by a bear market in equities.
Note the various yield curve inversions in the 10-2 Treasury yield. This compares the 10Y US Treasury yield with the 2Y US Treasury yield , and when the 2Y yield exceeds the 10Y yield, the curve inverts (the result of 10Y - 2Y is a negative number).
The yield curve has now become inverted for the second time this year. The inversion is deepening, and it's been 10 consecutive days of inversion territory. The inversion is entering its 3rd week of the 10s-2s being inverted.
This is starting to exceed the inversion in 2005-2006 that lead to the 2 year bear market b/w 2007-2008 and it's approach about 1/2 the depth of the inversion in 2000, which was a severe bear that led to the NDC falling 70% over 2 years.
The chart above allows an easy visual comparison between prior inversions (labeled by date) and the current inversion.
The black line on the chart represents the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX , also tracked by the NASDAQ:QQQ ETF traded on US securities exchanges.
The current inversion presages a higher likelihood of more pain in equities and other risk assets . An inversion does not necessarily lead to an immediate market decline as history shows, but it tends to lead to recession, which in turn is associated with extended bear markets (rather than a more minor 1-3 month correction as was seen with the Covid crash in 2020).
There was a minor inversion between the 10s-2s Treasuries in March 2022, 3 months ago, but that one only lasted 2 days. The current inversion has lasted now for about 2 weeks and looks likely to continue.
The current inversion has become more deeply negative than even the 2006 inversion, which presaged a severe-2 year bear market associated with the Great Financial Crisis. But so far, it only approaches half the depth of the 2000 inversion, which presaged a different but severe 2-year bear market that saw the Nasdaq lose 70% of its value (albeit with several powerful multi-week / month bear rallies interposed in between major declines).
SPX vs US yield inversionsTrying to find some statistical evidence to support the leading expanding diagonal on SPX500...
Obvious SPX tops and bottoms with the extremes of yield difference between 10 and 2 year Treasury Notes.
I am preparing for a longer down trend in SPX
Trade safe
10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession Using a 10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession. June 2025 is when the market will start to improve if history repeats itself.
10yr-2yr Inversion VS Stock market bottomThe last two times of market recessions, Dotcom and the Great Recession both times the stock market did not hit bottom until 3yrs after the inversion happened.
Meaning we are only 129 days into this one. I would take advantage of this current rally and not get overly long on positions, but sell out of positions into strength.
The FED has made it clear there will be more pain ahead, and they will only strengthen their resolve next meeting.
Either way, a .50 basis or a .75 move is on the table stocks will not bottom until the inversion starts to un-invert, as proven in the past.
US10Y < EFFRIt has been interesting yesterday.
Now the US10Y is starting to go below the FFR.
This is the BOND market saying that the PIVOT is near.
The market is anticipating a rate cut in 07/2023.
Key level closingMonthly key level from 2006 is about to be tapped. Close above it, and stock market will be in BIG trouble. Rejection on weekly and monthly level here would give us a breathing space.
Key level: 4.4xx%
Fractal Alert, US 10Y, will the fractal repeat?Fractal repeat will be ominous to the asset classes, will it repeat? Caveat Emptor
10Y yields seem to be toppishTHe US 10Y treasury yields seem to have reach an important exhaustion point to complete its A wave. Expecting a pullback towards at least 3.40% if not 2.83%. Then another up-wave should follow that could reach the 7% eventually.
US 10Y YIELDS BUY OPPORTUNITYUS 10y buying oppoetunity we have beautifull breakout of structre and now retracing as regular flat may it will fly from given area good luck
Collapse after US debt callbackThe US bond yield has been confirmed to enter two waves of correction, and the two rounds of decline will drop more than 55% in total. Then it began to pull up violently. Even if the yield of US debt increased crazily, no one bought it. It can be inferred from this K line that in the next decade, the United States will have serious problems, possibly a war with China. The result is close to being killed together or the United States won miserably. Those who have the ability and conditions should stay away from these two countries for their families and themselves.
US 10Y heading to 3.75%US 10Y seems to be completing B wave and C wave correction to start .. First target is 3.75%
$US10y-$us02y US 10s minus 2's AMAZING-
ALL I CAN POST, I HAVE NO OTHER WORD THAN TO USE CAPS LOCK!
This is the beginning of the END!
US10Y Bond Yield Simple Chart AnalysisOn the other hand, 10Y bond supported & rebound to reattempt the previous high fall 4.3 area. Once break, 5.2 will be the next target.
This will be very bad for tech sector if this 10Y bond continue to rise. Can for see investor that invest into stock market will cash everything out & put into safe heaven place.
US10Y About to drop strongly after the 0.75% hike?The US10Y recently broke below the August Higher Lows trendline and remains below the 4H MA50 since October 25. The bearish divergence that RSI's Lower Lows suggested is identical to the one in April, May. The price patterns are very similar and this was a sell signal that dropped to the 1D MA50 and the Support of the previous Higher Low.
We have drawn these levels on the current pattern and that Support is at 3.567 while the 1D MA50 at 3.667. With the 1D RSI still on Lower Highs and Lower Lows and the 1W STOCH RSI on a Sell Cross, we expect the US10Y to hit at least the 1D MA50.
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