#us10y Hi friends
the us10y and dollar index is bullish in h4
We can look for reform in gold
The first target of 1760
Please follow the h4 chart
US10Y trade ideas
US10Y The 1D MA50 is the key. So far rejected.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 5 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price has started rising since the December 07 Low, exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). So far this is quite similar to the early August rise. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low.
In order to extend selling the US10Y, we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (October 21 High) Resistance. So far the 1D MA50 seems to get rejected.
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dollar and yields more upthe bullish momentum in dxy/ bearish momentum in eur slowed down significantly most recently, this probably correlates with "an end in sight" of the FEDs interest rate hikes.
nevertheless there are more hikes to come and we havent seen US10y yield ranging around common interest rate targets around 5%.
the countermovement in dxy, the bullish break of eu's downtrend have endured for quite some time now and its probable we see the former momentum take over again for quite some time.
prepare for a bullish dollar and a bearish eur again.
targets for this something around early FEB next year, till then most rate hikes should be completed or announced.
OECD Leading Indicator vs. Market Cycles - Updated 122022 Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing:
We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the 🇺🇸.
Keep in mind that readings above 100 (green dotted line) suggest economic expansion to come while readings below 100 suggests broader economic weakness, and likely economic recession based on history.
Given the the index is currently trading below 100 , and possibly continuing to fall — what does this mean for the economic outlook going forward, specifically as it compares to S&P 500 (SPY ES1! SPX), DXY (U.S. Dollar), Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS), 2/10 Yield Curve Inversion (US02Y US10Y), U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY), U.S. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Crude Oil (CL1! USOIL), Lumber Futures (LBS1!), Gold (GOLD), Silver (SILVER), U.S. Mortgage Rates (USALOLITONOSTSAM), and possible timing of the financial market(s) recovery?
Let's have a look at some of the charts as they highlight that real economic weakness is likely into H1/23', paired with the potential beginning of a financial asset recovery as the business cycle works through its bottoming process.
Chart Key for Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): 📊🗝
Green Dotted Line (Horizontal): >100 = Economic Expansion
Orange Dotted Line (Horizontal): Current Reading
Red Dotted Line (Horizontal): Historic Danger Zone
Black Dashed Lines (Vertical): Pre-Recession OECD Leading Indicator Peak
If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼
www.tradingview.com
S&P 500 SPX 1991-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
S&P 500 SPX 2006-2017 (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
S&P 500 SPX 2016-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
U.S. Dollar DXY (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
US02Y Treasury (Black Link) vs. Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate FEDFUNDS (Blue Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
US02Y/US10Y Yield Curve Inversion (Baseline >0%, <0% Curve Inverted = Trouble in Markets) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
Crude Oil USOIL CL1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
Lumber LBS1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
GOLD (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
SILVER (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
U.S. Mortgage Rates (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM):
Here is the updated release schedule for the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for 2023: 🗓
data.oecd.org
Learn more about the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) using the link below: 💡
data.oecd.org
What is your takeaway(s) from these charts? 👇🏼
US10Y : What the Market is saying.Next week will be important. FOMC will decide on rates. Powell had said that they will slow down the rate hike. It should be less than the previous 75bps. It can be 50 or 25bps. Whatever it is, do you think it matters?
Well, a week before the FOMC decision, the MARKET had made a decision as well. Participants from around the world decided to drive yields lower. Last night was PANIC all around when yield went down BELOW 3.50%. This is foreseeable. In other words, the market is telling the Fed to go FLY KITE. Yield is already BELOW the EFFR. It is now more than 25bps below and once it goes 50bps below, then it brings a new meaning to what the market think/wants. Should the Fed insist on raising rates next week, this will only INCREASE the difference between the EFFR and actual yield. I am quite sure when the Fed raise rates next week, the market will double down and drive yields LOWER!!!
In the past, I learned/believe the idiom "don't fight the Fed". I begin to doubt that now.
Between now and FOMC next week, we would be hearing a lot of people giving their opinion and expertise about rate hike and how FX would react. Perhaps we should just ignore it. TALK IS CHEAP. Instead, I think it is best to follow the MONEY. The BOND market is BIG. Moving it requires a LOT OF EFFORT. I would listen to these EXPERTs running the bonds. If US10Y goes lower between now and FOMC, then we get the message from the MARKET, loud and clear.
As I said before, The MARKET decides - The Fed Implements - We just follow.
Lets get ready for PIVOT.
Good luck.
P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
US10Y Critical point, break or hold on the Channel bottom!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield ( US10Y ) has gone a long way since our top prediction two months ago and the update 20 days ago (4H time-frame):
Now back to the 1D time-frame, the price is exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is where the last bottom was priced. The 1D RSI has hit the 1 year Support Zone twice, again as in the last (August 02) Higher Low and it remains to be seen if the price reacts with a bounce. So far the move is much weaker than in August.
In order to extend our selling we ideally need to see the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) break, which is holding as Support since December 29 2021, and in that case we will target initially the 2.510% (August 02 Low) Support and then the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
A closing above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, should restore the long-term bullish trend and will be our buy break-out signal to enter and target the 4.340% (OCtober 21 High) Resistance.
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** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
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10 year US Treasury Yield10x.....from a low 0.31% in March to 3.48% currently.
With Fed speak not being understood by the market....the technicals might.
The 10 year yield s are all set to usher the new year at higher levels.
Using the MMRI to assess risk in this marketWatching the MMRI and assessing market risk as Powell speaks today.
If this indicator falls, the stock market will likely climb higher, and if the MMRI climbs higher, the stock market will likely fall.
Will the Santa Claus rally begin soon?
As speculators in this crazy market, we can only hope so.
Yield curve inversion, CPI, GDP and DOWHistorically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession; hence the inversion of the yield curve might be perceived as a leading indicator.
Once the yield curve is inverted, it may be several months before we see GPD contracting; and it is not guaranteed that we will see a sharp drop in GDP.
First pane: You can see the development of GDP and the associated development of the Dow Jones Index (log-scale). The area below you shows the US 10-year/2-year yield (bubbles indicate a yield curve inversion). As you can see, it might be some time before we see a GDP contraction after the yield curve inverts.
The last area shows the core CPI that drove the Fed and expected higher dot plot medians in December. Nonetheless, recent data suggests that the core CPI may have peaked (to be confirmed).
10 year yield is still bullishThis week is one with a lot of economic events; and a lot of volatility is expected in the market place. US yield has been creating a higher high and is currently sitting on top of a resistance-turned-support level. I expect it to dip through the trendline support and reject swiftly from the horizontal support in order to create a strong bullish signal.
2 Year-10 Year Yield curve deeply invertedIf there is any tell-tale sign that a massive recession is coming, it is this: 2-Year - 10-Year yield curve inversion. If you look back in history you would see that every time this yield spread has inverted, the economy and the stock market has gone into a recession. The problem is that this is the deepest inversion from an historical perspective - deeper than 2008 inversion. This can play out very badly for the S&P500, and the stock markets in general.
Will S&P500 be in big trouble because of this?
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve.
This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen?
The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system.
Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds.
The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms.
So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower.
In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead.
According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967.
There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries.
But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices.
This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
Yield Curve Inversion And the last 4 RecessionsThe Yield Curve Inversion is considered a good indicator for anticipating a Recession.
As we can see in this Idea, in the last 30 years, when the Yields were negative, the recession occurred after several months.
FOMC Meeting Next Week: Bank of America Expects 50bp Rate Hike The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet next week, and investors are eagerly anticipating the outcome of the meeting. Bank of America Global Research has discussed its expectations for the meeting, saying that it expects the Fed to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by 50bp in December to 4.25-4.5%.
According to Bank of America, the Fed has telegraphed this move over the last few weeks through its communications. However, the more important question is where the Fed will go next. Bank of America expects the median forecast for 2023 to move up by 50bp to 5.125%, which is consistent with its terminal rate. The bank also expects the dot plot to show 100bp of cuts each in 2024 and 2025.
In addition, Bank of America expects the macro projections in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) to be revised to show lower GDP growth and inflation than in September, and higher unemployment.
At the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Bank of America expects Chair Powell to push back against easing in financial conditions and remind investors that a slower pace of hikes does not mean a lower terminal rate. The bank believes that Powell will stress that the Fed's job is far from done.
Overall, Bank of America expects the FOMC meeting next week to be consistent with the Fed's previous communications and for there to be no major surprises or shifts in policy.
Some Jargon Explained
The Dot Plot
The dot plot, also known as the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), is a visual representation of Federal Reserve policymakers' individual forecasts for where they think key interest rates will be in the coming years. The dot plot shows the central tendency, or the middle of the range, of the individual forecasts for the federal funds rate.
Each participant in the FOMC meeting provides their own individual forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year, as well as over the longer run. These forecasts are then plotted on a chart, with the dots representing the individual forecasts and the lines connecting the dots indicating the median of the group's forecasts.
The dot plot is released four times per year, along with the FOMC's policy statement, and provides insight into the collective thinking of FOMC members about the future path of interest rates. It is an important tool for investors to gauge the future direction of monetary policy.
The Terminal Rate
The terminal rate, also known as the long-run federal funds rate or the equilibrium real interest rate, is the interest rate that the Federal Reserve believes is consistent with the long-run health of the economy. It represents the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and is expected to prevail in the long run, once the economy has reached its full employment and price stability goals.
The terminal rate is not a fixed number, and can change over time depending on a variety of factors such as changes in the underlying productivity and demographic trends of the economy. The Federal Reserve uses the terminal rate as a reference point when setting its short-term interest rate targets.
In general, the terminal rate is expected to be lower than the current federal funds rate, as the Fed typically raises interest rates in the short run to prevent the economy from overheating and then lowers them in the long run to support economic growth. This means that the terminal rate can provide important information about the future direction of monetary policy.
US10Y Time for it to decide the long term trendThe US10Y is approaching the Higher Lows support of the 2022 bullish trend. Holding it can make the price rebound back to the 1D MA50 (blue line) and the dashed line of its growth zone at least.
A break below it and in particular the 1D MA200 (orange line) can turn the trend bearish long term to the 1W MA100 (red line).
The 1D RSI is on its (oversold) Support level as well.
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10 year yield has broken the trendlineThis chart yesterday had the yield at the bottom of this up channel. Now it looks like more like it is breaking down. Yields heading lower. This makes the yield curve even more extremely inverted which is a recession predictor.
USD vs US yields : 2017 compared to 2022USD vs US yields ***2017 compared to 2022**
Think US yields can see a rally short-term now after top divergence and 5 down on yields. The question is how far can USD go and stocks drop till US yields complete an A-B-C bounce. DXY resistance at 108-109.
10 year yield at the bottom of a channelIts quite a nice looking channel here on the 10 year yield chart. Probability of a bounce higher off this support level seems high indicating potentially a fall in bond prices in the short run.
US10Y Bounce at 3.332% then to 5.376 by Summer 2023The current pitchfork trend is holding and I'm looking at the US10Y reverse at 3.332% this month. I'm also expecting the fed to over tighten or some other news event to drive the US10Y to 5.376% by June 2023. The nature of pitchforks are able to easily visualize the physics of the market and I'll do my best below to explain what I'm seeing.
From a price action perspective the US10Y broke the median from the beginning of time and is coming back to re-test it as support.
As of August 2011 gap down to Jan 2014 price action has respected that median range through today.
In the world of physics, when you have a huge swing away from the median, you'll also have the same energy swinging back in the other direction. Think of a swinging palm tree in the wind.
The same is happening here and is illustrated by capturing the breakdown in Feb 2020 where price quickly broke trend then held the 3 standard deviant move down during the 2020 crash. US10Y has quickly made a move in the other direction and is preparing to breakout with huge force.
10yr inflection pointThe 10year is confused! will 2023 be bullish or bearish for earnings? We won't know until probably Q1 earnings, so until then markets will be volatile. If 10Yr heads to 5% you can bet earnings will continue to go higher, and S&P will become cheaper even at around 4000. if 10yr sells off and heads to 1.5% means the fed are cutting rates and earnings are dropping like a lead balloon. Regardless of the fed cutting rates, S&P will become expensive and will need to correct or crash!
I have no idea, either way, the crash comes now, or after the 10yr hits 5%, but the earnings crash is coming...laying off people isn't an option, it creates a crash....
ps every single recessionary metric is screaming recession....
Yield inversion to reach bottom January 2023For DOT COM bubble, when yield inversion reached bottom, the top of the markets were 182 days later.
IMO we'll reach bottom in January 2023 and markets will peak 182 days later, in September 2023.
NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THIS.I thought I'd share something very interesting, that may occur in the upcoming weeks, the upcoming months.
Looking at the US Bond Yields, we see it forming a rising wedge pattern.
In Elliot Wave Theory, it is called a leading 5th wave diagonal.
The past weekly candle closed as a tweezer top AND finding resistance at the 0.786 fibonacci extension level.
This may signal a bearish reversal of conditions.
Now you all must be thinking, "Oh no... Not another Bearish idea from this guy..."
HOL'UP. WAIT A MINUTE.
A decrease in bond yields tend to have an Inverse Effect on asset markets.
When Bond Yields decrease, It means investors are more likely to allocate their capital away from bonds (safe-havens) to high-risk high-reward investments. Vice versa when bond yields increase.
Just a few closing thoughts, please keep in mind that although it is a bearish pattern, we must not assume a reversal until Price breaks down from this wedge.
I hope you all really enjoyed my analysis on the US10, fellow traders! 🥰
Take care, God Bless, & let's kill it at the charts! 🥰🥰
