US10Y - Possible directions Morning All.
Here is my idea on a couple possible outcomes
Be safe , Be informed keep it real.
I am a student of the art do not trade my ideas.
US10Y trade ideas
$tnx entering sideways consolidation US10Y, aka $tnx is likely entering a phase of sideways consolidation before another leg up
Last time it came out of a bear market bottom, it took $tnx 11 years to clear the 4-5% area for good and begin its long term uptrend phase...
11 years that $spx used to compound gains of 180%
(long pertains to $spx) for yields perhaps long 3% is a good idea! but imo the easy money on yields has been made by now.
US 10 Y to go lower in the short term4% resistance is strong.
expect the central planners to step in
and lower rates. as the economy can
not handle real postive interest rates.
they are still negative....
gold has been held down...
expect gold to bounce in jan 2023
and yeilds to go lower. remember you are not free
and there are no free markets.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Bullish Engulfing in Focus Before FedThe US 10-year Treasury yield left behind a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart this Friday.
This is as the bond tested a rising range of support from August.
A turn higher from here could open the door to revisiting the October high of 4.33.
Otherwise, breaking lower exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average, which could reinstate the upside focus.
All eyes next week turn to the Fed, which is expected to deliver a 75-basis point rate hike. The focus will rather be on their language going forward as markets increasingly expect moderation.
TVC:US10Y
Big inflection point for bond yields Bond yields are now into the test area in the area of the retracement.
Many calling for a reversal in bonds but IMO we need to get through the current levels. If a low in yields is due, it's coming from around here.
I still stick to my original forecast, until it's shown to be invalid.
US10Y Huge Bearish Divergence on RSI calls a drop!The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield formed Lower Highs on its 1D RSI while the price action has been trading on Higher Highs. This is a major Bearish Divergence that technically calls for a price reversal to the downside.
What's even more interesting is that every time the same RSI Bearish Divergence has been formed in the past 12 months, the US10Y always pulled-back and hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is currently at 3.563 (and rising).
A reversal on the bond yields can have a major impact on the financial markets, especially ahead of next week's Fed Rate Decision, as it is negatively correlated with stocks and Gold.
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Adjusting long term fib retrace I’ve adjusted the long term Fibonacci retrace to raise the first resistance zone at 4.15%.
Bond 10 year yield losing momentumDivergence shows up on the RSI versus the yield recent swing highs at the top of a channel. If yields are going to spring out of this channel and continue in this direction a pull back first should be expected. Of course it could be the top but as yet that is not evident.
us10ygood evening,
according to my recent calculations,
i believe the "us10y" is close to reaching a top.
---
same as the us dollar,
i feel like a significant top is close to being created -
which is pretty good news for the stonk market.
✌
10YR longterm fibonacci retrace Looking at the 4.3% level to bring tons of resistance and support as long term fib levels are breached for the first time since 07’.
The Great Reset!!!CAUTION ONLY BIG BRAINS FROM HERE ON OUT!!!
White: US 10 Year Bond Yield
Orange: US Debt to GDP
Blue: US yoy inflation
"Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to borrowers for all sorts of nominal debt, not just government debt." -- Christopher J. Neely, Vice President at St. Louis Fed.
What is the Great Reset? Is it a new 1929 Crash, a new Great Depression? No. The real Great Reset is the controlled writing down of US debt-to-GDP which has reached unsustainable levels and surpassed those at the end of WW2. In fact this chart only shows government debt (orange), in truth when you add corporate and all other forms of private debt, you get a figure currently in excess of 700% of GDP.
People believe inflation is the problem, they don't understand that in most of the world it is a tool for writing down debt. This was also the case in the US after WW2.
How do you write down debt measured against a country's productive output? Well, the easiest way is to increase GDP, but because in reality growth is limited (in some cases almost zero), it's easiest to do this by increasing the nominal value of GDP by ramping up inflation:
Nominal GDP = Real GDP * inflation factor
So by increasing inflation we increase GDP nominally and we decrease our debt with respect to productivity.
So what does this have to do with the chart? Look what happened after WW2, when bond yields bottomed and debt-to-GDP peaked. These two reversed over the next 40 years until 1980, when they reversed again. Look what happened to the long-term inflation in that same 1945 to 1980 period: ignoring the many short-term spikes (known as surprise inflation), the curve slopes exponentially upwards, gently at first until culminating in the inflationary spial of the late 1970s. This same process is beginning again. We will see many short-term inflation spikes in the coming years (surprise inflation) but they will mask an underlying increase in long-term inflation. What does this mean? It means your savings will be wiped out with respect to purchasing power. It means diversify into bitcoin and other dead (non-productivity related) assets over the coming decade and decouple from the fiat.
The same principle applies to Eurozone and other so-called developed countries with excessive debt-to-gdp ratios.
Further reading:
St. Louis Fed blog entry "Inflation and the Real Value of Debt: A Double-edged Sword"
Russell Napier interview "We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale"
The truth is wealth is being transferred from the creditors, i.e. the citizen, to pay down government debt: as your savings lose purchasing power, the value of debt also vanishes. This is really why we say inflation is a tax!
US Treasury YIELDS 10s MINUS 2's Obvioulsy we are in a shit storm. end of the way we do business financially... BUt there is hope. Once yields invert to -6 to -7% we will have the biggest bull run you've ever seen.
BUt NOT FOR A WHILE.
us10 year bullish divi us10 year bullish divi forming on 2 week chart could be signaling the bottom is in
Absolute monster ripIf the momentum continues, this might hit 5% in 2-3 weeks. Not looking good for stocks
10 year yield breakoutThe Treasury 10 year yield has today broken out of the channel. It has yet to confirm with a re-test. This looks like a real potential risk off signal on stocks.
10 year yield at 2008 highThe 10 y is just coming at the June 2008 high at 4.27%. Key spot above at the 1.13 Fib X at 4.34. Chance of a reversal at that point. Above the 1.13 Fib X the next level comes in near 6%.
US 10Y yield convergence of resistance levels around 4.19/20We have a convergence of levels around the 4.19/4.20 zone of the chart, it is a long term double Fibonacci retracement and represents significant lows seen in 1998 and 2001.
Will be quite interested to see if the market pauses here in order to consolidate sharp gains that have been pretty relentless since August.
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10 year yield at top of channelFor the fourth time the US Treasury ten year yield is touching this upper line of its parallel channel. If in continuation mode we could expect the yield to come down. A break to the upside would be bearish for the bond and stock market.
6 Month 10Y ClosePublishing the idea to follow.
1, 3 and 6monthly closes in today- some super import levels to watch
US10Y 6 month close has SFPd the swing high and also the broadening descending wedge trend resistance.
Important to watch trend resistance as this could form an inverse HnS here, targets for the BDW are 5% and 8%.
6M chart so could play out over the next few years- one to watch for sure!
Bonds and RatesThe bond market has broken a 35Y downtrend and we can see in this chart the correlation to the rate hikes, is this a sign of substantial rate hikes in the future?
US Gov 10 Yr BondsCould we be seeing the drop for the 10 Yr Gov Bonds? I think yes. There is a high probability that the trend line will be broken and we could see it decreasing. It could very well form this M pattern which would bring it to the downside.......The DXY looks like it has lost its steam, So could we potentially be seeing BTC bull run sooner than we think ?
US10Y 1HPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you enter carefully the price behavior with the drawn areas.
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