10YR longterm fibonacci retrace Looking at the 4.3% level to bring tons of resistance and support as long term fib levels are breached for the first time since 07’.
US10Y trade ideas
The Great Reset!!!CAUTION ONLY BIG BRAINS FROM HERE ON OUT!!!
White: US 10 Year Bond Yield
Orange: US Debt to GDP
Blue: US yoy inflation
"Inflation transfers wealth from creditors to borrowers for all sorts of nominal debt, not just government debt." -- Christopher J. Neely, Vice President at St. Louis Fed.
What is the Great Reset? Is it a new 1929 Crash, a new Great Depression? No. The real Great Reset is the controlled writing down of US debt-to-GDP which has reached unsustainable levels and surpassed those at the end of WW2. In fact this chart only shows government debt (orange), in truth when you add corporate and all other forms of private debt, you get a figure currently in excess of 700% of GDP.
People believe inflation is the problem, they don't understand that in most of the world it is a tool for writing down debt. This was also the case in the US after WW2.
How do you write down debt measured against a country's productive output? Well, the easiest way is to increase GDP, but because in reality growth is limited (in some cases almost zero), it's easiest to do this by increasing the nominal value of GDP by ramping up inflation:
Nominal GDP = Real GDP * inflation factor
So by increasing inflation we increase GDP nominally and we decrease our debt with respect to productivity.
So what does this have to do with the chart? Look what happened after WW2, when bond yields bottomed and debt-to-GDP peaked. These two reversed over the next 40 years until 1980, when they reversed again. Look what happened to the long-term inflation in that same 1945 to 1980 period: ignoring the many short-term spikes (known as surprise inflation), the curve slopes exponentially upwards, gently at first until culminating in the inflationary spial of the late 1970s. This same process is beginning again. We will see many short-term inflation spikes in the coming years (surprise inflation) but they will mask an underlying increase in long-term inflation. What does this mean? It means your savings will be wiped out with respect to purchasing power. It means diversify into bitcoin and other dead (non-productivity related) assets over the coming decade and decouple from the fiat.
The same principle applies to Eurozone and other so-called developed countries with excessive debt-to-gdp ratios.
Further reading:
St. Louis Fed blog entry "Inflation and the Real Value of Debt: A Double-edged Sword"
Russell Napier interview "We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale"
The truth is wealth is being transferred from the creditors, i.e. the citizen, to pay down government debt: as your savings lose purchasing power, the value of debt also vanishes. This is really why we say inflation is a tax!
US Treasury YIELDS 10s MINUS 2's Obvioulsy we are in a shit storm. end of the way we do business financially... BUt there is hope. Once yields invert to -6 to -7% we will have the biggest bull run you've ever seen.
BUt NOT FOR A WHILE.
us10 year bullish divi us10 year bullish divi forming on 2 week chart could be signaling the bottom is in
Absolute monster ripIf the momentum continues, this might hit 5% in 2-3 weeks. Not looking good for stocks
10 year yield breakoutThe Treasury 10 year yield has today broken out of the channel. It has yet to confirm with a re-test. This looks like a real potential risk off signal on stocks.
10 year yield at 2008 highThe 10 y is just coming at the June 2008 high at 4.27%. Key spot above at the 1.13 Fib X at 4.34. Chance of a reversal at that point. Above the 1.13 Fib X the next level comes in near 6%.
US 10Y yield convergence of resistance levels around 4.19/20We have a convergence of levels around the 4.19/4.20 zone of the chart, it is a long term double Fibonacci retracement and represents significant lows seen in 1998 and 2001.
Will be quite interested to see if the market pauses here in order to consolidate sharp gains that have been pretty relentless since August.
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10 year yield at top of channelFor the fourth time the US Treasury ten year yield is touching this upper line of its parallel channel. If in continuation mode we could expect the yield to come down. A break to the upside would be bearish for the bond and stock market.
6 Month 10Y ClosePublishing the idea to follow.
1, 3 and 6monthly closes in today- some super import levels to watch
US10Y 6 month close has SFPd the swing high and also the broadening descending wedge trend resistance.
Important to watch trend resistance as this could form an inverse HnS here, targets for the BDW are 5% and 8%.
6M chart so could play out over the next few years- one to watch for sure!
Bonds and RatesThe bond market has broken a 35Y downtrend and we can see in this chart the correlation to the rate hikes, is this a sign of substantial rate hikes in the future?
US Gov 10 Yr BondsCould we be seeing the drop for the 10 Yr Gov Bonds? I think yes. There is a high probability that the trend line will be broken and we could see it decreasing. It could very well form this M pattern which would bring it to the downside.......The DXY looks like it has lost its steam, So could we potentially be seeing BTC bull run sooner than we think ?
US10Y 1HPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you enter carefully the price behavior with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
Bonds vs. SPX - No earlier call than thatThis is your ultimate chart to predict the crash. Search no more.
Everytime bonds broke trend and started spiking up - crash for stocks (And crypto) was imminent.
We didn't even approach the trend yet - so it means this is just a correction.
Cheers!
Visual on why Crypto got you used to gainsIt is just because no Crypto has ever experienced a real big crash. And now we are approaching the Great Reset.
No DCA will save you here.
Yields vs. SPX - proof we started too earlyThis is proof we started declining too early and we can still expect a lot of wonders before the actual crash. Before we truly don't go above 0 on Treasure yields - we can still expect some push to the upside - and even significant ones.
Trendlines and Channels Tutorial: Part 3Before we get started on trendlines and channels I want to share a quick thought on the current market environment and how, at least in my opinion, the technical environment has changed.
I believe that the weight of the evidence suggests that we are in the early to mid-stage of a primary bear market. If that is the case, momentum and sentiment extremes, breadth thrusts, and other conditions that have reliably produced tradable lows over the course of the recently completed primary bull market are far less likely to create meaningful/investable lows. For a low to be trusted for more than a quick trading turn will require multiple techniques and confirmations, while shorts into rallies and interim highs can be sold much more safely than at any time since the 2008 lows.
If global central banks, and in particular the Federal Reserve, continue to tighten policy, markets are at significant risk. In particular I believe that QT is the more important driver of asset prices. I don't foresee a pivot anytime soon unless there is a financial accident. Even then, it’s not likely that the pivot will include a long term reversal of policy. If inflation remains high, pivots are likely to pauses in the tightening cycle and not a lasting reversal.
Ten Year Yields: For clarity and simplicity I will treat this uptrend in yield as a bull market (although it is actually a bear market as higher yield = lower price). To keep it simple I will label the uptrend in yields as if it were a bull market and use that terminology.
The hourly chart of US Ten Year Treasury Yield offers another example of a consistent demand line coupled with a clear supply line. As discussed in parts 1 & 2, trendlines and channel tops evolve over time and are typically messy.
Construction: Yields began inflecting higher in very early August (A) and over the next few weeks began making higher highs and higher lows.
The first significant low occurred August 10, and soon after, the initial demand line (A-B) could be drawn. This demand line did an excellent job of defining the stride of the trend for the next two months.
At that point there was a solid intervening high pivot between the two low pivots that could be used to draw the initial supply line. After the late August pivot, I moved my initial supply line lower.
From September 13- 22 the market traded in the upper portion of the channel for an extended period (period in the oval). Downside reactions began consistently holding in the area around the channel median/central line. This is typically a sign of strength. Note that this was the third time during the sequence that price had held in the upper portion of the band for an extended period. Granted, there were two periods where price was below median, but both periods were relatively short and the totality of time spent above median was far greater. This was clearly a market where demand is outstripping supply by quite a lot (remember that since this is yield, we are treating the uptrend as if it were price, so in actuality, holding in the top portion of the channel represented superior supply).
Soon after this show of strength, the market pushed above the top of the supply line. Overthrows of this nature are often terminal, ending the trend. Often, breakouts find fresh supply at roughly 1 channel width above the breakout. This one exceeded that modestly.
Often (as is the case here) once the original channel is reentered, it will again begin to act as support and resistance.
In the next installment we will talk about combining channels with other chart and oscillators and some notes about using channels to trade against.
And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum.
Good Trading:
Stewart Taylor, CMT
Chartered Market Technician
Taylor Financial Communications
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Forecast US10YGood day everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write your comment if you like the idea
The bar for 10-year Treasuries has been broken.
The 10-year Treasury yield has broken the trend at 3.8%. In fact, this opens the way for growth to indicators in the range of 4.5-4.6%.
There are elections in November, and we need to show at least some effect from measures to combat inflation. This is the main task. Well, what's next? Let's assume that we managed to somehow stabilize the situation with inflation (actually or by manipulating statistics is another question) by achieving a target rate of around 4.5%. Let the economy go into recession. And, after some time, start the cycle of lowering the rate again and pulling the economy out of recession? The current rates were in 2008, and the values were 4.5% in 2007. And the Fed had enough of this "reserve" in reducing the rate for almost 14 years.
DISCLAIMER:
The opinion of the author may not coincide with yours! Keep this in mind and consider in your trading transactions before making a trading decision.
US10Y - shall we take a breath before another hike?From a technical perspective it seems to me that we may see a short correction before another FED's decision. Potentially it may make SPX take some weight, which - I believe - it will loose soon after.
Crash incoming 5? (Update 2)Although the market is broken or almost broken right now (surprisingly TLT joined the crash 'party'), central banks will be forced to print more money (this is it's already happening in some countries) and to pivot. Nevertheless, based on the data, when the US10Y-US02Y reverse to the upside in the following weeks or months, there is still a strong possibility that the market could crash even more (as you can see, this was not the case in the beginning of the nineties). I believe it's because when they eventually shift, the economy is already broken (very high rates, high inflation, high unemployment, debts, etc.).
Regardless of what may happen, patience, check out my latest idea ("Crash Incoming 6 - Update 3") to find out when it will be less risky to buy stocks or to sell them.
One more gold thesisThe way I read this chart is as follows:
GLD is at max inverse correlation with the US10Y . Same for USO which has reversed a period of positive correlation (due to the monetary expansion driven growth) and is also now in maximum reverse correlation. As of this Gold offers a materially better investment profile versus Oil.
SP500 is as well in inverse correlation with the US10Y, but this correlation appears more cyclical and can reverse once the damage to the economy and market starts going too far (flow into the safety of US treasuries).
As such Gold seems the preferable instrument in taking a contrarian view regarding the reversal of bonds , getting protection against a tail event , and upside exposure in case of a melt up . In case of a further US10YR increase the downside risk can be limited by a short trade on the EUR.
Counterthesis to a long Gold position is Scenario 4 , but in all other states of the world the investment profile of Gold is really compelling and this could start driving inflows at this point.
Sc 1 - Accident : Gold + / USD + / SP - / 10Yr - (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 2 - Risk on : Gold + / USD - /SP + / 10 yr - (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 3 - Inflation and rate hikes : Gold - / USD + / SP - / 10 yr + (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 4 - Recession : Gold - / USD ? / SP - / 10 yr - (inverse correlation breaks)
US Treasury yields expected to stay bullish10 Year Treasury rate is expected to hold upside momentum as long as it stays above 3.5%. Given the current pattern, it is likely to see the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury climb to 4.5% by the end of this quarter.
Support: 3.5% & 3.82%
Resistance: 4.5% & 5%
