Marching towards 4.5 and 5%US equities indice might drop another 10 to 20% if this uptrend continue. KLCI might drop 8 to 18% commensurately
US10Y trade ideas
US10Y - Is The Unthinkable About To Happen 🧐😨US10Y looks like it could break above 200 month MA to end a 40 year bonds bull market.
It did look like it may have topped; printing a star, but Aug monthly candle is a big one and doesn't look too corrective on lower time frame.
This engulfed star is also mirrored in DXY and USD pairs.
If it breaks out then the cat really will be out and there will be plenty of fear in the markets.
Not advice.
Hawkish FED Keeps USD In UptrendUnfortunately, stock markets are where they are, and we cannot force them to move in a particular direction. We see a neutral status at the end of the summer, but this volatility may come back in September. We may see some interesting price action already this week when US will release its important jobs data. Fed watches this data closely, but what’s important is that they were very clear lately and said that they will stay hawkish even if FED’s actions will cause some harm to the US economy . So for now, the USD remains in uptrend because of US yields.
From an Elliott wave perspective, we see US yields trying to break higher into a fifth wave now, so this can cause even more weakness XXX/USD pairs.
But when the fifth wave will hit a new high on yields, that’s when we should be aware of a new change in cycle, ideally later this year.
But any major reversals in cylce will not happen that easily, especially now with current FEDs actions and potential bad data. Bad or good data; it doesn’t really matter; the stock market will have a hard time turning back to the highs. Yes, stocks can stabilize if we see bad data, but if we will start seeing bad data week after week then this means a big economic slowdown and a potential recession.
Expensive capital, inflation, and economic downturn is a bearish case for stocks. There is simply no "free" cash available to be invested in the stock market.
Ascending triangle on 10 year yieldEarlier today the 10YY retested the lower trend line of an ascending braodening wedge and it reacted quite strongly higher so now we have a bullish continuation pattern of an ascending triangle. This could potentially mean a big move lower in the long bond market if this yield breaks to the upside.
Ten year yield retesting wedgeThe ascending broadening wedge lower trend line is now being retested. That is a bearish pattern. Also potentially yesterday we saw a double top as the yield failed to breach the short term previous highs. This could be bullish for the long bond.
$US10Y 10 Year Bonds Key Levels, Analysis and Targets $US10Y Key Levels, Analysis and Targets
Oh my goodness… 10 year bonds are breaking out on the monthly for the first time in 30 years… This is epic…. Equities are so screwed… I never thought that I would be saying that the bond market looks interesting... LOL... 🤷🏻♀️
Ten year yield - big move upEarlier I had shown a bearish head and shoulders on the 10 year yield. this has now been completely invalidated by todays big move higher. The 10 year also has broken above some recent swing highs. This may indicate market expectations of higher interest rates or it could be simply that institutions are selling bonds to raise cash.
Waterfall is in frontgo short and enjoy it..
we can see how the chart tell us,,
its very simple on short
10 year yield head and shouldersOn this hourly chart of the 10 year bond yield there is a head and shoulders pattern at the top of an ascending broadening wedge bearish pattern.
Rates are chasing Natural Gas PricesFor longest time rates were concerned with oil prices and it looks like oil has peaked. But still, rates rise in the face of QT, a housing recession and falling oil prices? Rates must be chasing Natural Gas, the second larges input to energy inflation. Will Nat gas breakout or is this the end of the road?
US 10 year yield daily: technical say it must go down if...if last high not break we must see new downtrend on 10year yield
so gold and many markets must go up
let wait 2 week and see
10 year yield wedgeIt looks to me like the US Treasury 10 year yield is in an ascending broadening wedge pattern. This is often bearish, meaning it could signal an imminent reversal in yields. The yield did break above recent swing highs but failed to breakout. I would therefore think that yields are probably more likely to fall.
US 10Y: History in the makingBorrowing large sums of money at near zero interest rates to dump into risk on assets is a thing of the past.
As interest rates continue to rise, people will be less inclined to put their money into risk on assets, specifically growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Historically, 200M MA has hovered and served as resistance for the US 10Y. Not only has the US 10Y breached above the 200M MA, but US10 Y has flipped the 200M MA into support.
Buying risk on assets like bitcoin is not a good idea with a parabolic US 10Y and DXY. Buying gold is not a good idea with a parabolic US 10Y and DXY. Buying "Future" related stocks with absurd valuations didn't work in 2022 as shown by ARKK and Cathie Wood. Working hard to earn more dollars and keeping that money in a savings account is not a good idea thanks to inflation that is apparently "under control" and is "transitory". There really is no escape or "safe haven" asset to hide behind. These hedges against inflation have all miserably failed, and will continue to fail as US 10Y makes history.
"By 2030, you will own nothing and be happy!" - World Economic Forum
#Bitcoin #DXY #federalreserve #economicOne of the things that has happened in the past recessions in the market is the rotation of the yield difference charts from the negative range. One of the reasons is the beginning of expansionary policies at this time.
To justify that we are not in an economic recession, the Federal Reserve points to short-term maturity spreads that are not in the negative range, in addition to the labor market.
The expected outlook is the beginning of recession from the end of this year, where the short-term reduction of GDP and the economic growth reaching below its average will increase the unemployment rate in the coming years.
10Y Getting Ready to Turn Down (for what)I'm tracking the 10Y very closely.
Why? Because 10Y is the driver of all equities. If 10Y DUMPS, equities and crypto go up.
So, is 10Y close to topping out?
I'm seeing a trendbreak and new high, so a correction is coming, that will test the low of the bigger up trend channel.
stay tuned.
🤙🏽
$US10Y BOND YIELDIS this the perfect entry?
Large short exposure on $TLT, is it time to go long?
everything else is rallying
US10Y - Save the last dance for me.TSTW.
Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Ten year yield below resistanceThe 10 year US treasury bond yield has retraced into the .618 fib retracement zone and has now met restance at the point of the most recent swing high. There is another swing high right above that too.
US10Y-US02Y interesting connection of RVGI indicator and BitcoinUS10Y-US02Y interesting connection of RVGI indicator and Bitcoin
Except at one false signal June 2018 every cross in the extreme area of this indicator marked quite good Entry or Exit points for BTC
Seems the next cross for a possible Entry point is ahead dear Crypto Nation
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Forget All Other ChartsIgnore all the other charts right now. They are based on DOLLARS. The dollar is permanently unstable and your imperialist overlords are here to take away your spending power. We're due to see bearish action similar to April 5th (pink dot). The question is, will we see a lower high in relative yields, or will we set a higher low and possibly become uninverted, and return above 1.0 once again? Consider that we just set a higher high in the S&P medium term and it could have simply been a move to fool the crowd. On the other hand, debt is at all time highs, and rates even at this level mean systemic insolvency. Raising rates further means quicker insolvency. I say just get it over with or don't do it at all. Inflation year over year is, realistically, 20-40%, each year since 2020. Key interest rates aren't even 10% of that. There is no way they will be able to control this in any way, shape or form, or manufacture a so called "soft landing".
Rates rise >1.0 = total collapse, then easing
Rates bounce <1.0 = unrealistic rally blow off top, more tightening to trigger the crash
I think I used too many arrows but hopefully it makes sense.
Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets.
Yield curve inversion cyclesUS10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as the current 10 Aug 2022 always have.
Even more interesting is when you zoom in to the daily chart. Here we see the 10Y - 2Y moving back towards 0 from 10 Aug 2022 through 22 Aug 2022, even as stocks have begun to decline since release of the Fed minutes and recent commentary from Fed officials about the importance of continuing with additional rate hikes based on current inflation data.
10 yr TBonds We should all be aware that USA 10yr treasuries pumping up is bad news for all risk assets.
And mix that with DXY pumping and we get bear markets like most of 2022.
But I remain steadfast that the W4 isn't completed yet, the 382 is around 2.4% & ema 100 is
around 2.24% on 3D so this is likely the B wave of the ABC down of the minor 4th and should finish in Sept leading to the final push W5
US10Y LongIt looks like the final fifth wave has begun. It is assumed that it will end in the range of 4% -4.4%
