US 10 year yield, slope acceleratingFor an "uncontrolled sell of in bonds" it's interesting you can run a ruler under the trend.
Maybe not . soooo ... uncontrolled.
The upward ( acceleration ) in the yield trend recently is notable)
US10Y trade ideas
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START**
At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle.
In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018.
My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook.
**TRUNCATION**
Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave.
The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves.
**WHERE ARE WE NOW**
Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be.
**LIKELY PRICE PATH**
What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves.
**CONCLUSION**
The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields.
Cheers,
Check out the exact overbought level + SPY is oversoldThis has reached a high Overbought signal exactly the same level it was at previously at the start of the reversal.
Also look at the SPY S&P 500 has crossed below 30 on the daily RSI which means officially oversold.
When the market reversal happens all the same fud is still going on just before theirs no warning. This does not mean it's the end but a small rally up should be expected soon. It could also continue on more oversold or Overbought even further although comparing to past instances it is unlikely to go that far. So this is definitely something to keep a close eye on now it is that time to pay attention to the RSI again.
The spread on the 2 and 10 year bond yields is breaking downBreaking down below record lows. Things are looking grim
US 10 Year Bond Yield US10YJust a quick chart on the 10-year yield . Long-term we will see if it can make the next swing high level of 5.10%. I doubt the FED have the conviction to get there quickly.!
The US 10 YR Bonds Yield has struck a resistance point at 3.83%
The US 10 YR Bonds Yield has struck a resistance point at 3.83% following a strong rally. It will need to hold above 3.83% to continue the current trend.
The 3.50% is a crucial support point; it could trigger a pullback and provide a relief rally for the stock market if it fails at this crucial level.
Key point on US10Y minus expected inflation 10YLet's wait for the montly close the see potential upside on the yield 10Y or downside on 10Y inflation breakeven (or both). RSI marks overbought. Sharp plung on Friday's session...
US10Y Yield PLaying A Potential PauseIn this update we review the recent price action in the US10Yr Yield and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
US10Y, It most likely goes higherIs the correction over for US10Y ?
Elliott wave count suggests that US10Y will go higher and uptrend resumption may has been started.
US10Y as shown on the chart is in typical Retracement zone for wave 4s. Wave 4s usually retrace not more than 50 % ( some experts accept a shadow down to 0.618 level) of wave 3. In addition our wave iv is in territory of circled wave 4 which fulfills one of important Elliott waves guidelines which says : :larger degree wave 4s usually end in territory of smaller degree wave 4s.
upside targets are also shown on the chart which were obtained by typical Fibonacci levels for wave 5.
please note there is one more impulsive section on the wave pattern on higher degree waves. I did not include those wave labels to keep the chart simple and clean.
Good luck everybody.
US10Y: Potentially Increasing Yield, Stronger Dollar Ahead?Hello Fellow Global Investor/Trader, Here's a Technical outlook of the US Government Bond Yield!
Price Action Analysis
US 10 Years Government Bond Yield ( US10Y ) has rebounded on the bullish trendline. Simultaneously, US10Y is forming the flag pattern which may indicate a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend. As Traders, We can look for other confirmation. In this case, We will wait for the price to exceed the confirmation line. Thus, we can confidently assume there is a possibility of upside movement to the target area.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area.
*Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
Has inflation peaked? (1/3)Spread between US10Y and US2Y widened, and became more negative after Fed rate hike yesterday. Aggressive rate hikes are causing markets to price in a recession, and the 10Y-2Y spread is now more negative than back in '89, '00, '07, and '19...
Deepest yield inversion everThis chart shows the US 10 year yield minus the 2 year yield. On three occasions the value has gone below zero indicating a yield curve inversion. The current value shows a value lower than ever before.
Bearish Divergence on the US10 Year YieldIf we can see tthis begin to come down from here we will see stock continue up and the dollar return down.
US 10y bondssetup displaying an uptrend but trying to form a double top reversal pattern for short selling opportunities
bond the key for an economic crisisWhen short-term bonds are priced like long-term bonds, the chance of an economic crisis increases
BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ?
When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative.
In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels?
At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds.
Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder).
If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets
Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels.
Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP.
Cheers!
PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern.
All is in FED's hands now.
Yield cruve 10-2 vs BTCAn inverted yield curve instead slopes downward and means that short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. Such a yield curve corresponds to periods of economic recession, where investors expect yields on longer-maturity bonds to become even lower in the future.
Moreover, in an economic downturn, investors seeking safe investments tend to purchase these longer-dated bonds over short-dated bonds, bidding up the price of longer bonds driving down their yield.
US10y-US2y Compare with BTCDear friends
The difference between the returns of 10-year and 2-year bonds and the lower the value of these two charts, the slope of the reduction curve (Flat) and vice versa, the more we grow in these two charts, the slope of the curve has increased (Steep).
I compared the behavior of this chart to Bitcoin.
American financial and economic data.
US Govt. Bonds Bearish Butterfly IdeaPretty straight forward... I think there is a Bearish Butterfly harmonic. Another bearish sign is the TD sequential previously hitting a Green 8 & 9, Plus confirmed Bearish Monthly Divergence. It has to be said though the price action did not give two _____ about that divergence and there is 12 days left but that's like half a month it could manifest along with the TD sequential saying there is market exhaustion and come down. Won't be the first time I have seen price action show 0 intention of completing a "Market structure" especially when being this defiant with the RSI.
#US10Y #Bonds Can Fall From This FCP ZoneTraders & Investors, US 10 Year Bonds have been on the rise. After a minor correction they rose higher but now they could be approaching an FCP zone which can act as a resistance. We also have Relative Strength Index divergence setting up on weekly time frame.
Out this on your watch list as this can impact stock market, indices and other asset classes due to money flow from this asset class.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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-Vik
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📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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US10Y at critical levelBig Fed meeting next week. Key chart to watch is the US10Y. Rising yields + strong USD have damaged risk sentiment. US10Y is now testing June highs. Path of least resistance is higher, but if it reverses sharply here, may bring a double top into play.
