Deeper yield curve inversionThis chart shows the 10 year yield versus 2 year yield and you can see we are now in deep inversion (below 0). The last time this look was similar was 2001. This is an indicator that speaks to a potential policy error in terms of interest rates.by MrAndroid2
USA 10 YEar Goverment Bond USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series Focus: Worldwide By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures | USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision. #debadipb #profitsolutionsby Sunstorminvest1
Prediction of next financial downturnAccording to FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020. It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue! The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from fred.stlouisfed.org While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later! It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!! by Simon_saysUpdated 4949113
Target 2.55RSI support a weakening in us10yr yields. My short term target is 2.55% Also following the gap in 2%. Shortby omurdenUpdated 0
Usa rates.. are being sold trend down!Us rates are showing weakness for moment.... trend downShortby diegotrader99880
US 10y yield eyes 200day MA supportThe head and shoulders breakdown on the daily chart confirmed on July 18 opened doors for a roughly 70 basis points slide. That makes the 200-day moving average support, currently at 2.8%, pivotal. Shortby OmiFX80
Big Head and Shoulder Pattern 10 yearHey all just showing the ten year is looking like it will fall in anticipation of the fed relaxing its polices as we are in recessions and the labor market might weaken with the layoff announced by the big boys (tesla, Apple, google etc.) the distance of the head to neck bring the target to 2% which is less then current interest rates so I don't know if it will go that far with out something breaking in the economy first to cause this sudden shift in fed policy. Although Bull will put this in there case of the bottom is in history does not favor that philosophy. If you actually do research at the old peaks in the 10yr yield you will see markets usually collapse with the yield. Examples are 1999-2000 as the tech crash started, 2007-2008 as the GFC started and even in 2018 yields started to fall and the market bottomed after another +10% fall so watch out dont get FOMO in current rallies. Like and Follow for more Trade ideas and Financial education. Shortby jackwheeler1
US10YThis remains one of the most important charts for traders and investors. Why is this chart relevant? In terms of rank and importance, the bond market takes precedence over all other asset classes. The price of money or interest rates is a key factor within global financial markets, where higher rates is a negative for equities (higher cost of borrowing) and which in turn impacts high valuation stocks. Lower interest rates makes borrowing more attractive which boosts speculative and/or high valuation shares. On 13 June I highlighted the yield trading in a strong regime but approaching a 'near overbought' range, reiterating the same sentiment on 27 June as the yield traded at 2.5 to 3x it's mean per the 200-day linear regression channel as well as being positioned 51% above it's 200-day moving average. We have since seen yields unwind from 3.50% to a recent low of 2.65%. The development has been positive for equities with growth-like qualities and hence we have seen recently seen growth pare it's losses versus stocks with value-like characteristics. At current levels, the yields approaching the downward trend line extending back to the swings lows of 20 December 2021 and 07 March 2022.by techpers6
DID THE MARKET BOTTOM? In the past, the 10Y treasury yield is an excellent indication of the inverse of stocks. This way, a Head and Shoulder pattern will indicate the fall in treasury yields, implying stocks will begin to rally. Longby Canoesurf0
US 10-year breaks neckline The ongoing rally in bonds have been driving everything from FX to metals this week. As bond prices surged higher, their yields fell, boosting the appeal of low- and zero-yielding assets such as the Japanese yen, gold, silver and bitcoin. Yields have been dropping since the middle of June and this week saw that trend accelerate after the first estimate of the second quarter GDP confirmed the US was in a recession. Although the dollar fell against some currencies, most notably the yen, it held its own relatively well against the euro and pound, although I reckon it is only a matter of time before these currencies also find some buying interest. Interestingly, yields couldn't hold onto their gains made in the aftermath of stronger US data on Friday. We saw core PCE Price Index top expectations, along with personal income and spending. What's more, the Employment Cost Index rose more than expected, all pointing to a stronger US economy. But it wasn't enough to shake off concerns about the economy after that drop in GDP in mid-week raised bets that the Fed will have to slow down the pace of the hikes and potentially go in reverse in early 2023. The market is now no longer expecting to see a hattrick of 75 basis point hikes in September. In short, if yields fall further, I would expect to see further strength in foreign currencies and precious metals. Oh and the Nasdaq, too. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.comShortby FOREXcom8
10 Year Bond Yields Fed meeting minutes released Wednesday showed that officials planned to reduce their trillions in bond holdings at their March meeting, with a consensus amount of around $95 billion, increasing supply in the market. This news seems to be in confluence with the technicals as were sitting at a new higher high and are due for a pullback. Look for stocks to run higher as this happens but start paying attention to your positions once the 10 yr reaches the highlighted area below. Longby JoeyWinsALot1
10yr - keep an eye!10yr keep an eye Got a H&S formation, keep an eye if we break down further there are key support areas IF this continues further. However, we are at key support and don't forget month end. Have a great weekend 🎉 TJby Trade_Journal0
Key juncture for US yieldsPost FOMC "pivot" has caused a break of the potential HnS top in yields HOWEVER - this could be a false break as currently holding right below the neckline If PCE data tomorrow comes in hotter than forecast then all bets off again and yields higher as market is ahead of itself in thinking FED has pivoted already More hike to come imo unless everything cratersby WVS_Stockscreen0
US10Y SHORTHi Everyone, I'm waiting for Short H-C-H Signals: - Lower Lows & highs. - Price in the Bearish Channel - S-H-S SHORT, SHORT & SHORT BELOW 2,69%. Good Bye & Good Trading!!!Shortby Bluetrader_CSCUpdated 0
US 10 year yield potential HnSIn the next 24-48h TNX may dump. That's bullish for other markets crypto, stocks...Shortby rashk0
US10Y Inflation has peaked according to the bond yieldsThis is a critical update on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a technically bearish formation that we typically see on market tops with a reversal following. It gets even stronger considering the fact that the Head of the formation hit (and got rejected on) the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Megaphone pattern that the market has been trading is since 2013. There is however a possibility of not dropping to a correction before one last test of the Higher Highs as it happened both on mid 2018 and the September 2013 H&S patterns. As a result, we should approach this in terms of Resistance and Support break-outs. Above the Resistance, expect one last Higher Highs test, below the Support expect a plunge towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). But why is this US10Y top formation pattern so important and what does it have to do with the Inflation Rate (red trend-line)? Well as you see within this 9 period price action, the two symbols are very correlated. In fact, every time the US10Y hit the top of its Megaphone pattern, Inflation peaked and started to follow the US10Y lower on its correction. As a result we can say that this is the first indication we've had in a long time that the raging inflation that started in May 2020, may finally be getting under control. If so, this could be the ideal time to get back into stock buying as early as possible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------by TradingShot3335