10 year yield in downfallThe 10 year yield broke the trendline and we see a bearish divergence which is playing out.
If trends continues risk-on assets could surge!
US10Y trade ideas
10 year yield in downfallThe 10 year yield broke the trendline and we see a bearish divergence which is playing out.
If trends continues risk-on assets could surge!
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP on scheduleRegardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, during the previous week the 10Y US Treasury yields slides back till the levels from October this year. The yields started the week around the level of 4,42% while they are ending the week at 4,17%. Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index was released early in the week, which was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, FOMC November meeting minutes were released suggesting a Feds members conclusion that in case of further inflation relaxation and labour data in line with their expectations, there will be a case for further rate cuts.
At this moment, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their December meeting. The US Treasury yields reacted to these expectations. As per current sentiment, there is still space for a further drop in yields, at least until the market properly tests the 4,0% level. It should be considered that Non-farm Payrolls are scheduled to be released in a week ahead, in which sense, some volatility might follow the US yields.
US10yr yield headed higher after pullback towards 4%Self explanatory.
Early stages if wave 5 higher for yields to 6%+ in coming quarters but likely to see a pullback to 4% in days/weeks ahead first.
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for October PCEPrevious week markets spent on digesting currently mixed economic data as well as statements from a few Fed officials. The most important question at the moment is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at December's FOMC meeting or not. Statements of two Fed officials were rather mixed. On one side, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted his view on a need for more rate cuts, but the pace of it should not be speeded up. On the other side is Fed Governor Bowman, who stated that the fight against inflation “appears to have stalled”. The week ahead is important for markets, as October PCE data are set for a release, in which sense, might provide some clearer picture to markets of a potential next Fed move. At the current moment there are only 35% odds that the Fed will cut rates by 25% in December.
The 10Y US Treasuries were traded in a relatively mixed manner, exposing market uncertainty over the potential Feds move. The yields started the week around the level of 4,48% and for the rest of the week was oscillating around the 4,4% level. Further relaxation might continue during the week ahead, in case that the October PCE is in line with the current market expectations. In case that there are some deviations, then the yields might return toward the 4,5%. However, the most probable scenario is further relaxation of yields, at least to the level of 4,3%.
Bonds, gold and nextwe see, every wave has shorter distance on the time 200ma and when ever price touches to 20 ma, it stars falling. We also see indicators has sell signal.
How ever it still has LITTLE chance to see top side of channel quickly because momentum looks very wavey (green arrow).
In this case i put my bet for bears. Because there is more reasons for me(yellow arrow).
Also i want to notice that bond and gold has still correlation. NOT like before but still...If we look from this point gold has already started pricing this action.
And sory guys for messy chart but all need i guess. And again sory for bad english.
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed is not in hurryPrevious week on the US Treasury bond market was marked with Fed Chair Powell's comment that the Fed is “not in a hurry to lower interest rates”. The note came from Feds perception of a strong US growth, in which sense, there is no need to cut interest rates too soon. This marked investors confidence, so 10Y Treasury yields continued their path toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 4,49% at one point, however, yields are ending the week at 4,44%.
It will take some time until the markets digest the mentioned note from Fed Chair Powell. Now the question is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at their December's meeting, or the rate cut will be postponed for next year. As per CME FedWatch Tool, the market is expecting with a 62% odds, that the Fed will cut in December by 25bps, while the rest is of opinion that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. This digesting might bring some volatility back on the market, where yields might move between 4,5% and 4,4% during the week ahead.
BUFFET AINT TAKIN NO L'S : 10Y FORECASTForget the metrics
forget the indicators
This man is all the indicator i need and if he selling 75bn NASDAQ:AAPL stock while owning 356bn TVC:US10Y why deny it of course NASDAQ:AAPL overvalued along with the rest of tech but recession is recession baby
US10Y 1D RSI Bearish Divergence signals a long-term sell.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 27 2023 Low. The price is above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is approaching the patterns top.
The 1D RSI is already making a bearish reversal though, having posted Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs, which technically is a Bearish Divergence. As a result, we expect the Bullish Leg to top soon and then reverse to the Channel's new Bearish Leg.
The previous one made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern on the 1.2 Fibonacci extension level and as a result our Target is just above it at 3.500%.
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The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea.
The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow.
There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing.
Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades.
Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
US 10Y TREASURY: still digestingIt was an interesting week for US Treasury bonds. Although markets went into hype after the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the US, the 10Y Treasury yields remained out of this scope. Their exclusive focus was on the FOMC meeting and Fed’s next move. As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, with a solid overview of the US economy at this moment. The 10Y Treasury benchmark reached its highest weekly level at 4,47%, after which some relaxation came, down to the level of 4,30%.
Markets will use the week ahead to digest currently available data. The Fed has another FOMC meeting scheduled in December. Markets are expecting, with currently 75% odds that the Fed will make another rate cut by 25 bps. In line with this sentiment, it could be expected that 10Y Treasury yields will continue with a relaxation. However, some volatility might also be expected, where the yields might shortly turn to the upside, testing levels modestly above current 4,3% level, before they make a move toward the 4,2% level.
US 10Y Yields - Are The Bulls Loosing Momentum? The continued draw up into premium pricing might be weakening.
Remember, there is nothing irregular about a minor retracement back down into a sellside imbalance in the grand scheme of the uptrend
10-2 year yield outlook updated My expectation
Fed cuts,
10-2 year yield drops
Fuel for the final rally - assuming it'll be 4-8 wks and extremely aggressive
Just an idea, not financial advice
As always, pictures can evolve or change
US 10Y Yields - 4.493% Is Up For Debating Bullish but taking a lot of cautions due to the current sentiment at the moment.
Low resistance liquidity run from 3.599% to 4.386% in a little over 7 weeks is a trend that could continue but as a trader who likes to see both sides of the story, it's; only a matter of time before the trend will reverse.
The real question is when??
10Y BOND MARKETS CAB DROP TILL!!!!!HELLO FRIENDS
AS I can see 10Y Bond markets to have Drop with a view of technical analysis it had tested trend line on 3rd test and fail to break and if we see Fib retracement then don't forget its just starting and can test golden ratio 0.50 & 0.618 easily chart is based on 4hr TF till design TP
Friends this is just a technical view share Ur thought with us on this chart stay tuned for more updates
Yields USA
1. 1-Month Yield (4.596%):
- The short-term yield here is the highest, which might indicate a risk premium for investors lending to the government over such a short period. This could also reflect the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policies, which may be keeping short-term rates high to combat inflation.
2. 1-Year Yield (4.316%) and 2-Year Yield (4.252%):
- The yields for 1-year and 2-year bonds are slightly lower than the 1-month yield, which is unusual in a normal yield curve, where rates typically increase with maturity. This could indicate an inverted yield curve, often seen as a sign of an economic slowdown or potential recession. Investors may be anticipating future rate cuts due to an expected economic weakening.
3. 10-Year Yield (4.308%):
- The 10-year yield is close to the short-term rates, confirming a relatively flat or even inverted yield curve. Typically, the 10-year yield is higher in a growth environment. Here, a yield similar to short-term bonds suggests low confidence in long-term economic growth or expectations of stabilized inflation.
4. 30-Year Yield (4.473%):
- The 30-year yield remains close to short-term yields, with a slight increase compared to the 10-year but still within the same range. This configuration indicates that the market does not anticipate strong long-term economic growth or significant inflation increases. It may also signal that investors seek the safety of long-term assets despite similar yields to shorter-maturity bonds.
The yield curve appears inverted or very flat, which is often interpreted as a sign of caution or economic uncertainty. This structure reflects a potential anticipation of an economic slowdown, where the Federal Reserve might need to lower rates in the coming years if inflation is controlled and economic growth slows. Investors may be seeking protection by purchasing long-term bonds, anticipating lower rates in the future.
Three days after elections and one after FED cutStarting with #VIX the value decreased a lot after elections showing the decrease in investors fear
With less fear we can follow the #SPX #DX1! #BTC1! which strongly rise their value.
Commodites in general seems to had loss some points with Dollar strength, in this chart we can watch #GC1! and #BZ1! as benchmark
In the case of Brent we can see a double top even with line chart.
#US10Y decreased after 25bp cut nevertheless with Trump election US will probably activate more worldwide tariffs and this can lead to an increase in prices, and so the next couple months CPI will be a important measure to look at US economy in the future. So even it's decreasing and bonds are inversly to prices, I should keep an eye on it
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed.
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Weekly US10 year yield Bullish caseWeekly US10 year yield Bullish case
-9/21 EMA Cross up
-Price above weekly bearish FVG / SR Flip
-Breakout from Bulllish Falling Wedge
US Government Bonds 10 YR YieldHello everyone,
A quick look at the rate at 10 US.
Republican effect with its program?
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
► Thank you for boosting, commenting, subscribing!
US10Y BazookaOn US presidential election day, as a Donald Trump victory began to look certain, US Treasury yields experienced a startling increase in the span of a few hours. Truly extraordinary.
But is this the start of a new trend or just an acceleration of the old trend? The US10Y was so far rejected at resistance it was preordained to test. Maybe nothing has changed and we go down from here?
10 Year UST Note Chart with Eco Numbers 2020 to 2024Pick which economic print gave us these high rates. Can the fed keep inflation and unemployment under control, we'll find out..
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Just my opinion.
Hidden Bearish Divergence on Yield US Treasury 10YrWhile RSI 14 reach above 70, TVC:US10Y formed a lower low compare to when the last time RSI 14 were above 70 (Apr'24). They say this is a hidden Divergence, a Bearish one.
I predict the Yield will fall to 3.6% but still within the Bullish Continuation pattern in the medium to long term. Meaning that the strengthening price of US Bond is temporary before they fall and push the yield higher to the level of Global Financial Crisis in 2008.
