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US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

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US10Y trade ideas

US10Y going lower with the Fed having no choice but to cut.Almost 10 months ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today's revisit to this pattern shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have already started to form a Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100% as its first Target, on the Fed's first wave of rate cutting and gradually hit the lower Fib targets as the rates stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence of US10Y falling when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: US10YR - 20 AUG, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave : Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. 10-Year Yield, the main trend is down. Currently wave (C)-orange is unfolding to push lower. Recent price action shows that wave ((iii))-navy has ended, and wave ((iv))-navy is unfolding as a Triangle. The basis is that it will be longer and take longer than expected. But the bearish view with wave ((v))-navy then is still holding. While price must remain below the 4.022% high to hold this view.
TVC:US10YShort
by ShaneHua
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed`s cut is nearingThe posted US inflation for July brought some new confidence for investors that the Fed's rate cut is nearing. The July inflation eased to the level of 2.9% on a yearly basis, and was below market forecast of 3.0%. The Producers Price Index was another indicator which pointed to further easing of inflation pressures, by reaching 0.1% in July, for the month, again below market estimate of 0.2%. To nail the market expectations, preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, posted on Friday, showed no change in inflation expectations for the five years period of 3.0%. This was enough information for the market participants to increase their expectations that the Fed might make their first rate cut in September. The 10Y US Treasuries started the week modestly below the level of 4.0%, and were driven to the downside during the rest of the week. Yields reached the lowest weekly level at 3.8%. Thursday and Friday brought back some short volatility, after the Retail Sales data were posted, however, yields are finishing the week at the level of 3.88%. During the week ahead the Jackson Hole Symposium will be held on Thursday and Friday. After the symposium, Fed Chair Powell will hold a speech, which might bring back some volatility to the market, considering current nervousness around rate cuts. Still, it is not expected that the yields will move significantly to either side, except to test, for one more time the 3.8% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
10 Yr Yield-100/200 monthly SMA cross is inevitabThe crossing of the 100 SMA ABOVE the 200 SMA on the monthly 10 year yield is inevitable...it will cross shortly no matter what rates do from here on out...even if they declined to 2% tomorrow. What does this mean...IMO it means longer term lending rates will remain higher than people/corporations are used to seeing over the last 20 years. The prices we are seeing today will more than likely be what we will continue to see over the next 7-10 years; at the very least. As you can see from the above chart, the 100 SMA crossed BELOW the 200 SMA on the monthly in 1990 and we all know what happened after that cross...we ended up being in a declining interest rate environment from 1984-2020. We are now in either a longer term increasing interest rate environment or a stagnant one at best. At this point we know the Fed is "thinking" about lowering short term rates but they are no where near a fierce rate cutting trajectory in the near term. Therefore, in order to project some relatively near term SMA's, I used the "SMA prediction" that @vladimir.kamba created to project out the likely path the SMA's may take in the near term. See link below (green lines) for the projected SMA's. If the past in any indiction of the future...after the cross happened in 1990 rates were never able to touch the 200 SMA until 2018 (28 years later). The 200 SMA has flatted out and is projected to turn slightly up; which it has not done since the 1950's...Woah!!! The point of this post...get your finances in order to anticipate this new rate environment! Those people or company's that refinanced at really low rates BUT used short term financing must anticipate refinancing those loans at much higher rates and/or should pay them off if possible. Do not count on rates going back to where they were over the last 20 years. Could we be transitioning back to a period of time where "savers" are rewarded? Could that be why Warren Buffett has dramatically increased the cash pile at Berkshire Hathaway to around 25% of the total portfolio?
TVC:US10YLong
by Vixtine
1
US10Y-US02Y - Bond Yield Curve AnalysisWorth noticing that the bond yield curve did very briefly push above 0 with a very whipsawing spike. This happened at the S&P selling climax low. And it does look like we will see a real move up and through the 0 point either soon or in the not too distant future. Which in tandem will see increasing unemployment. And that apparently is a clue that recession is in the pipeline. And we often see a stock crash in that area. That said, the alignment with stock indexes crashing is fairly loose. Notice that the yield curve pushed through the 0 point almost 600 days before the crash happened. Thats more than enough time for the crypto cycle to finish and the opportunity to cash out taken. Then if a crash does happen as the crypto cycle ends, it would be the ideal outcome. As I have said; I think everything aligns because this is all organised, orchestrated and not at all random. But lets see, this is a little warning of danger here ⚠️. Not advice.
TVC:US10YLong
by dRends35
Fed Watch Tool Target Rates on the US 10 YOn this graph, we see the current priced in Interest Rates of the FED Watch Tool in compare to the US 10 Year Treasuries. We can clearly identify by how much the market is frontrunning and at what pace the market believes the Interest Rates will decline. The Orange Box below is the average Interest Rate of ~2.75% and the expected Mid/Long Term Interest Rate, until something brakes and the next Liquidity Cycle begins. I personnaly believe that we will see an even faster pace in the future, hence the Earnings showing more uncertainty in the guidance of Corporate Ameria. Additionally the job openings decline, more people are unemployed, the Yen carry trade is not yet unwinded, consumer credit and auto loans are on verge of a credit shock. Conclusion: hence TLT is pretty much the exact counterpart of the US10Y, I decided to go long TLT with leverage.
TVC:US10YShort
by derMatzeImNetz
US 10Y TREASURY: easing with rate cutsTwo weeks ago markets reacted to surprising jobs data in the US, however, the posted ISM Services PMI on Monday put a dose of relaxation among market participants. Data showed that the US is clearly not in a recession and that, at least, the services sector is doing fine at this moment. All financial markets were traded in a positive manner during the previous week, resetting their sentiment to the previous path. The US Treasuries also re-adjusted during the week, in a move from 3.7% reached on a Monday, till 4.0% reached on Friday. The 10Y benchmark is finishing the week at the level of 3.94%. Regardless of a positive come-back and re-assessment of the current state of the US economy, the market nervousness might continue in the coming period. It should be considered that the US inflation data and the retail sales for July will be published in a week ahead, where some increased volatility might be possible for one more time. At the current stage, the market is testing the 4.0% level, however, there is some probability for another drop in the week ahead. The level of 3.9%, eventually 3.8% might be tested. The move above 4.0% is unlikely at this moment.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Why are Interest rates falling? Time to buy? We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates. Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom. Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation? Is the bond market pricing in a recession? I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness. Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper. This drives the disinflationary narrative. I think its to early to tell whether this decline is from demand or global weakness.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
Rate Cut? Big Disappointmenting, Unlikely!US10Y Yield Drama: The US 10-Year Yield has been on a rollercoaster—recently dipping, then bouncing back like it’s trying to make up its mind. But let’s be real, being around 4% isn't exactly an invitation to rate cuts. History’s Not on Your Side: Sure, the Fed has cut rates before without a crash, but that was when inflation wasn't hanging around like an uninvited guest. Remember 1998 or 2001? Yeah, those were different times. Now, we've got inflation breathing down our necks. What’s Really Going On: This yield isn’t breaking any new ground—bouncing between 4.5% and 3.5% like a broken record. Everyone’s screaming about an inverted yield curve, but hey, what else is new? We’ve been hearing recession alarms for a while now, and still, no rate-cut savior. Fed’s Big Non-Move: The Fed's been singing the same old tune—committed to that elusive 2% inflation target like it’s a sacred mission. They’re not about to abandon ship just because the market’s getting a little choppy. Meanwhile, Japan hit the reverse button on their rate hike decision. The markets caught their breath, and we’ve already seen some solid “buy the dip” action. Panic averted—for now. Even with the VIX spiking from all the fear trades, don’t be surprised if it calms down soon. The market’s got a short memory, and we’re likely headed for a higher high once this storm passes. Cutting rates now would be like pouring gasoline on a fire and hoping for rain. Not happening. Bottom Line: The US10Y might be teasing you with the idea of a rate cut in September, but don’t hold your breath. The Fed’s playing hard to get, and unless the economy really goes south, they will not lower the interest rates. Reversion Zones: Being back to 4% is a very high probability 4.35% will be soon after
TVC:US10YLong
by Saver0
Critical Resistance Ahead for US 10-Year Yield: Key LevelsWe've observed an impressive corrective rebound in the US 10-year yield chart. However, we are now approaching a significant resistance zone between 4.06% and 4.09%. This area marks the point where the yield previously broke out of its channel, aligning with the highs seen in March and July of 2023. Additionally, this zone represents the 38.2% retracement of the entire decline from the April 2024 peak to the August low. With this confluence of resistance levels, we will be closely monitoring for any signs of failure. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10YShort
by The_STA
Inverted Yield curve re-inversion vs SPYSince 1990, there has been a 4/4 probability of market declines and recession proceeding the re-inversion. For data not shown on Tradingview, there were 2 outliers in 1980 and 1982 where the market nearly bottomed as it re-inverted (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y) However, the last two re-inversions still had the market increase for the proceeding 24 weeks (5-6 months). This is very important information. If this cycle plays out like the last 2, the markets might still crawl higher until Jan 2025.
TVC:US10YLong
by SolenyaResearch
Yield curve re-inversion vs GoldAs the yield curve re-inverts, it presents an opportunity for safe haven assets like gold to outperform. The only outlier was 1980 and 1982 when gold had already increased 800% in the few years prior due to Fed Volcker's era of runaway inflation. Evidenced by the inverted yield curve's track record of predicting recessions, the Sahm Rule was also triggered on Friday's unemployment data. Since 1950, the Sahm Rule was able to predict a recession 10/11 times (91% chance). Every time it did predict a recession, it did so within 4 months. Coincidentally, This time frame fits quite nicely with the 24 weeks of upside proceeding the re-inversion before the start of a bear market
TVC:US10Y
by SolenyaResearch
US10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.9% SoonUS10Y Government Bond Yield Could Test 3.9% Soon The price is showing the completion of a complex pattern that could push the price further. A very strong resistance area over the previous weeks is found near 4.48% dating back almost 1 month Also considering overall market expectations, US CPI data on Thursday could help this bearish move. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:US10YShort
by KlejdiCuni
3