Yield curve uninverting again todayUS 10Y is rising again faster than the US 2Y. We are closing in the 0 level.
US10Y trade ideas
is this signalling a market crash? The yield curve invesrion remains in place for the longest historical inversion run.
This cant be good right?
History shows once the spread between the 10 & 2 corrects back to normal / un-inverts you usually get a sell signal in the market.
We are observing a massive bullish wedge pattern unfolding and looks poised at any moment to breakout.
The un- inversion breakout usually happens quickly and sharply.
US Yeilds ForecastReasons for execution
1)PML LIQUIDATED
2)+BOS (internal)
3)0.382 Fib & Fvgs
4)+OF
5)1.618 FIB EXPANSION
US Yeilds ForecastReasons for execution
1)PML LIQUIDATED
2)+BOS (internal)
3)0.382 Fib & Fvgs
4)+OF
5)1.618 FIB EXPANSION
US 10Y TREASURY: waits for PCE dataAs there has not been currently important macro data posted during the previous week, the investors were weighing comments from Fed officials on a potential course of action when interest rates are in question. In this sense, Mary Daly, Fed President of San Francisco, noted her hopes for more data which would indicate that the inflation is on its way to the 2% target. She commented on some good progress in this direction, but concluded that “we are not there yet”. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also commented on the potential for rate cuts in a similar manner. Fed Chair Powell should also be mentioned in this context, as he noted that the first rate cut will occur before the inflation reaches the 2% target.
The 10Y benchmark Treasury yields continued to trade with a downtrend during the first half of the week, reaching the lowest weekly level at 4.14%. The second half of the week they reverted a bit to the upside, ending the week at the level of 4.24%. The US PCE data are set for a release during the week ahead, which would most certainly bring some higher volatility to the Treasury yields. As per current charts, there is some probability that the level of 4.3% could be tested, however, the long term perspective of the yields is to the downside.
US10Y Expecting a bullish reversal at the bottom.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) initially expanded but then took a breather on the new Bullish Leg, as per our January 24 (see chart below) buy signal, before hitting our Target:
The price is now approaching the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up yet again and by next week a 1D Death Cross will be completed. The 2 previous such formations within the Channel Up, have both been made right on its Higher Lows.
As a result, we consider this a great bullish opportunity for the medium-term. Our Target is intact at 5.000%.
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US10Y Q2-Q3 FY24 FORECAST : WHATS NEXT BROThis is one of those calls i hope dont play out cause with dxy indicating higher for longer and rates being held and cuts being reduced to one for the year its clear that next years estimates will be revised as well.
Expecting a continuation at the 2nd level if that breaks look like we officially in bear country.
Any logical investor will be defensive especially if Jamie Dimon warning wall street (flexing he's finance influencer side hustle) everyone is preparing dont be optimistic never too bullsih never to bearish just accept the cause to an effect.
But since everyone is expecting a recession i wonder how random it will be.
US10Y - Sitting On My Hands Although i believe there is unfinished business to the downside, intraday movements could determine otherwise...
short 10y bondsinfaltion is falling with it the intrest rate therefore the easing of monetary policy makes the bonds less attractive to investors as they could get a much higher returens on other assets or equity
US 10Y TREASURY: easing with lower groundsInflation data posted during the previous week were the ones that the market was closely watching. A better than expected inflation in June in the US made an impact on Treasury yields. The consumer price index in June was down 0.1% from the figure posted in May, bringing CPI to the level of 3.0% on a yearly basis. At the same time core inflation was higher by 0.1% on a monthly basis, bringing core inflation to the level of 3.3% y/y. The evident slowdown in inflation figures supported market expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates in September this year, in which sense, 10Y Treasury yields dropped to the level of 4.18% as of the end of the week.
In terms of technical analysis, the 10Y Treasury yields are still testing the 4.20% level. In this sense some lower volatility might be expected in the week ahead. The market might turn once again to the upside, to the levels modestly above the 4.20% level. Charts are indicating probability for 4.30%, however, this might be the case for a week or two weeks ahead. In any case, the longer term perspective for Treasury yields is further decreased.
US10 YEAR BONDS NEXT MOVEHELLO TRADERS
As i can see US10Y testing a strong support and trading inside triangle zone rate cuts are coming but still not happened tecnically it q very low risk based trade with a higher rewards Bond markets are big they move in days .... its just a trade idea with tecnical analysis share ur thoughts with us Stay tuned for more updates
Bullish case for #gold and #miners playing out.Bullish case for #gold and #miners playing out.
10 versus 2 Year Yields
Gold Versus Inflation
US10Y - Peek 'A' Boo, I See YouExpecting a orderblock attack @ 4.197%. This week will be interesting!
Understanding the US10Y Crab Pattern in 2024
The US10Y refers to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy and is closely watched by investors.
"Analyzing the US10Y trend, a bearish butterfly pattern has emerged at the 1.276 and 1.618 level, indicating a potential bullish trend in 2023. This pattern suggested a reversal in the current market direction, and The US10Y bond market has been exhibiting an intriguing pattern known as the "CRAB PATTERN," with implications for the year 2024.
This pattern suggests that the market may experience a period of consolidation before potentially reversing its direction. Additionally, the presence of a parallel channel further supports the notion of a bearish trend, as this technical indicator typically indicates a downward trajectory in the market.
Traders and analysts should closely monitor these developments and consider potential strategies to navigate the market amidst this anticipated trend.
It is crucial to conduct thorough analysis and consider various factors before making any significant trading decisions in response to the observed pattern and trend.
US 10Y TREASURY: June inflation and PPIMarkets reacted to released unemployment data during the previous week. The increasing unemployment to 4.1% in June from 4.0% in May was an indication to investors of a possibility that inflation pressures will slow down on decreased employment and that it will provide the necessary space for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. After struggling to sustain yields during the past several weeks, the market finally reacted in a relaxed manner during the previous week, by bringing the 10Y benchmark yields down to 4.28% on Friday. Yields started the week around level of 4.48%.
For the week ahead, it should be considered that June inflation and PPI data will be published. Although surprises in inflation data are not expected, still, in case that posted figures do not fit market expectations, the market will correct current pricing. As per current charts, the level of 4.20% is indicated as the next level to be tested. However, some volatility might be expected, but not higher from 4.30%.
Be careful when the RSI for the US10Y gets to 46. For the DOT COM crash + Financial Crisis crash, the market tops happened when US10Y monthly RSI touched 46. Only downhill after.
Pay attention!
2Yr Yield Rolling Over?And there goes the the 2Yr Yield, it is whimpering.
Unless something happens this is rolling over further.
10Yr Yield had a nice bounce but it is also rolling over.
TVC:TNX is only 33 basis points from normalization!
Short term #yield is looking very weak, 6 month and 1 Yr, not shown.
More info see profile...
US10Y, morning updateUS10Y doesn't paint too rosy a picture for the cost of debt, it would seem.
This count shows a truncated bottom at COVID-low, pretty clear impulse wave up from 0.505% to complete an A wave or wave 1.
Wave B or 2 looks like a zigzag so far.
If count is correct, the implications for the US economy would be dire, I would think.
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting inflation dataFriday brought some higher volatility on the markets as newest inflation data were released, as well as the consumer sentiment. Although 10Y Treasury yields spent the first half of the week testing levels above 4.20%, still, released inflation data pushed the yields toward the 4.40% level. Released PCE data showed inflation at 2.6% y/y, which was the lowest level for the last three years. Still, the market also took into consideration Michigan consumer sentiment, which reached the level above the market estimate, and exposed consumer expectations that the inflation will stay elevated around 3% within the next year.
The market priced recent available information regarding the potential Fed's move in the coming period. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool is still showing that the majority of participants are expecting that the first rate cut might occur at September`s FOMC meeting. Still, it should be noted that Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted in an interview during the week, that she does not dismiss the possibility of increasing interest rates if inflation turns to the upside again.
Since the market reached the 4.4% level on Friday, it could be expected that digesting of the latest inflation data will continue within the week ahead. In this sense, there is a higher probability that yields will ease during the week, at least to the level of 4.3%.
Wen Next Recession?Noise reduced monthly vantage point for the 10 year minus 2 year yields.
consolidating ABOVE
12 month moving average
Tic toc...
#recession #rates #inflation #yields #fomc #fed
10yr Treasury Yields Consolidate at Key 4.32% LevelThe world’s most important market, the 10yr US Treasury, is trading directly at a critical level. Going back years, the 4.32% level has served as reliable support/resistance, and today’s drop after peeking above that level yesterday has only emphasized the importance of that key level.
At the same time, the 10yr Treasury yield has put in a series of lower highs and higher lows dating back to Q4 of last year, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern that could lead to an outbreak of volatility in the coming weeks. A bullish breakout above 4.60% would hint at a possible retest of 5.00% (and likely weigh on risk assets like stocks and higher-yielding currencies), whereas a bearish breakdown in yields would open the door for a drop toward the December lows near 3.80%.
-MW
