US Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR YieldUS Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield

No trades
See on Supercharts

US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield forum


NVDA stampede into bonds US10Y and US02Y . bond yields down = bond value up= money flowing into bonds and they are really serious about it

NVDA if you are expecting 130 this week you are delusional. the yield on US02Y is looking to fill a fvg down to 3.98 sometime this week. US10Y will follow suit. Big $ must exit bonds for the market to move back up, and there is no reason for them to do so at this time. NVDA is no longer an exception to forces effecting the entire market.

US10Y need to see it near 4.15% for good mortgage refi opportunity 🙏


NVDA yields on US10Y are falling fast, giving up what gains they made earlier over the last 2 weeks. bond yields down = bond value up = money flowing back into bonds

US10Y is showing a false breakout with a possible H&S formation on HTFs. While downside pressure is building, a full move to the descending wedge bottom seems less likely—but not off the table.
Snapshot


NVDA the yield on US10Y is increasing premarket (value decreasing, money flowing out), so odds of bounce are increasing

NVDA US10Y keeps tanking with the market. It is a good indicator to what 🍊is trying to do, which is forcing the FED to cut interest rates

SPY My AI Jerome Powell NVDA SPX US10Y

Jay Powell Mode Activated: How I See This Data in the Current Market

This morning’s economic data presents a mixed but concerning picture in the context of our dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment.

Inflation Is Still Sticky

Core PCE QoQ at 2.7% (above 2.5% forecast) suggests that inflation remains persistent.
The GDP Price Index at 2.4% is also running hotter than expectations.

Consumer spending remains very strong (Real Consumer Spending QoQ at 4.2%, up from 3.7%), which could keep demand-driven inflation elevated.
Durable Goods Orders rebounded strongly (3.1% MoM, vs. prior -1.8%), showing that business investment isn’t slowing down as much as we might need.

→ Bottom Line: Inflation is still sticky, and demand remains resilient, which does not justify rate cuts in the near term.

Labor Market Softening, But Not Enough

Initial Jobless Claims at 242K (higher than expected) and Continuing Claims at 1.862M suggest some loosening in the labor market.

However, jobless claims remain well within historical norms—this is not yet the kind of labor market weakness that would force our hand on rate cuts.

→ Bottom Line: Labor is softening but still resilient. We need more data before considering easing.

Policy Implications
No urgency to cut rates: Inflation is still above target, and consumer spending remains robust.
Financial conditions may need to remain restrictive: Market participants expecting a March or even May cut may be overly optimistic.

We remain data-dependent: If labor market weakness accelerates or inflation meaningfully cools, we will reassess. But as of today, the case for holding rates remains strong.


How the Market Should Interpret This

Equities: Risk assets should price in a higher-for-longer scenario. If expectations of rate cuts get pushed further out, we could see renewed equity volatility.

Bonds: Treasury yields may drift higher as markets digest the idea that rate cuts aren’t imminent.

Dollar: Likely to strengthen as the Fed keeps policy tight relative to global peers.



This data does not justify rate cuts at this time—if anything, it reinforces our cautious stance.