Bear flag on 20yr treasure bondBear flag showing with overbought stoch rsi. Looking for a possible bearish continuation to higher time frames. Target 97 on NASDAQ:TLTShortby moneyflow_trader38385
20yr yield breakout from C waveCurrently monitoring the 20yr bond yield. On this Chart. I've found a desc. Triangle breakout set up with a bullish wave count. Also notice the yield is at an oversold level for this time frame and below the cloud. I'm looking for the yield to retrace back up above the 5th elliot wave and close above 4.367at minimum before going higher. Disclosure: I have puts on NASDAQ:TLTLongby moneyflow_trader221
US20Y short: scaling inUS 20Y yield had hit my previously projected target (idea on 3rd May). Now I expect a corrective wave up in A-B-C and then a wave 1 = wave 3 move down (minimally). Short05:49by yuchaosng111
Short 20Y Yield, long 20Y futures: Bias viewDisclaimer 1: This is a bias view. I think that 20Y yield (as well as 10Y) will be going down. Disclaimer 2: Note that this is the 2nd time this year I am calling for longer duration yields to go down (linked in this analysis). Analysis portion: 1. H&S formation. 2. Completion of double combination of zig-zag. Shortby yuchaosng5
Golden Cross approaching for US 20 Year Bond YieldsGolden Cross approaching for US 20 Year Bond Yields in advance of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday Meeting and Friday's Unemployment and ISM PMI Reports. TLT to low 80's over next few weeks?Longby grumpa067
20 year bond yields entering Rotation DownwardAnother TLT play is about to start. The 20 year bond yields are rejecting off the channels resistance and will likely move back down to the 200 mda and maybe the bottom of the 4 months upward channel. TLT will respond inversely to this. I have been playing TMV and TMF back and forth since November. I'm up 70% over that time. I'll will likely buy into TMF tomorrow if the machines drop the 20 year off of the resistance. If so, then I'll be ready to dump at the 200mda if we look like we will reject off of it. If the 20 year keeps bumping sideways off the top of the 4 month channel - then I'll be ready to buy into TMV once it breaks out above it. Shortby grumpa06112
20 year Bond Yield in 3 month Rising Channel to 4.77%20 year Bond Yield reversed in its' 3 month Rising Channel and is now rising to 4.77% due to inflation data in the manufacturing report. Will it break out this time? If so its' going above 5% again. Longby grumpa06114
Bond yields recent uptick is crashing marketsBond yields recent uptick is crashing markets and also causing the TLT to drop. Bonds holders have sent their message to the Fed. Ball 🏀 now is the the FED's courtby JK_Market_Recap0
20 year Bond Yield and TLT Bear Flag vs Bull Flag on WeeklyThe 20 year bond yield is finishing up a 5 month Bear Flag Pattern and on the inverse TLT is finishing up a 5 month Bull Flag Pattern. The Bond Market smells a Fed Pivot in the works. I bought TLT on 3/21/24 and will hold until we reverse at resistance at $96.50. If we break through resistance at $96.50 then momma gets a new card baby because we are going above $100 and up. by grumpa06337
Understanding Treasury Yields And Govt BondsUnderstanding yield curve correlations is essential for traders and investors seeking diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. The yield curve, a graphical representation of bond yields across different maturities, provides valuable insights into interest rate expectations, economic conditions, and market sentiment. 1️⃣ Understanding Treasury Yields and Bonds: Treasury yields represent the interest rates on government-issued bonds with varying maturities, ranging from short-term Treasury bills to long-term Treasury bonds. Bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship: as bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa. The yield curve plots these yields against bond maturities, typically ranging from one month to 30 years. Understanding the shape and dynamics of the yield curve is crucial for assessing the market's expectations for future interest rates and economic growth. 2️⃣ Interpreting the Yield Curve: The yield curve can take various shapes, including normal, inverted, and flat. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher yields for longer-maturity bonds, which is typically associated with expectations of economic expansion. An inverted yield curve, on the other hand, slopes downward, indicating lower yields for longer-maturity bonds, which may signal expectations of economic recession. A flat yield curve suggests little difference in yields across different maturities and may indicate uncertainty or impending market changes. 3️⃣ Yield Curve Correlations Across Markets: Yield curve correlations can offer valuable insights into market relationships and potential diversification opportunities. For example, correlations between the yield curve and forex markets may indicate the impact of interest rate differentials on currency valuations. Similarly, correlations between the yield curve and commodity prices may reflect expectations for inflation and economic growth. By analyzing these correlations, you can identify hedging opportunities and mitigate risks across different asset classes. 4️⃣ Identifying Diversification Opportunities: Diversification involves spreading investments across different asset classes to reduce overall portfolio risk. Yield curve correlations can help identify assets with low or negative correlations, offering diversification benefits. For example, if the yield curve is positively correlated with stock market indices, you may seek to diversify your portfolios by allocating funds to assets with negative or uncorrelated returns, such as gold or government bonds. 5️⃣ Utilizing Hedging Strategies: Hedging involves taking positions to offset potential losses in existing investments. Yield curve correlations can inform hedging strategies by identifying assets that move in opposite directions under certain market conditions. For instance, if the yield curve is inversely correlated with commodity prices, traders may hedge their commodity positions by taking long positions in treasury bonds or short positions in currency pairs correlated with the yield curve. 6️⃣ Yield Curve and Forex Markets: For example, consider a scenario where the yield curve steepens, indicating expectations of rising interest rates and economic growth. In this case, currency pairs with higher interest rate differentials may appreciate relative to those with lower differentials. Traders may capitalize on this by buying currencies with higher yields and selling currencies with lower yields, taking advantage of yield curve correlations to profit from interest rate differentials. 7️⃣ Yield Curve and Commodity Markets: Alternatively, suppose the yield curve flattens, signaling uncertainty or expectations of economic slowdown. In this scenario, commodities sensitive to economic growth, such as industrial metals or crude oil, may experience downward pressure on prices. Traders may hedge their commodity exposure by taking long positions in treasury bonds, which tend to benefit from safe-haven demand during periods of economic uncertainty. Yield curve correlations provide valuable insights into diversification and hedging opportunities across forex, indices, and commodity markets. By understanding the dynamics of the yield curve and its correlations with different asset classes, traders and investors can optimize their trading and investment strategies to manage risk and capitalize on market trends. by WillSebastian5
20 Year Bond Yields - Breaking through Resistance to 6%?The 20 year Bond Yields has been in a channel since 12/2023. On the weekly, it has hit resistance twice and bounced off. We are approaching a third attempt to break through. Iff it does, whhen it does, its' going to 6%. Longby grumpa063
20 yr Bond Yield to 4.7% by March 22nd, 2024The 20 Yr Bond Yield will likely move to 4.7% by March 22nd, 2024 based on its' 12/2023 and 04/2020 Channels. Bought into TMV on 3/11/24 based on this reversal on Friday. Looks like this will be a 15% gain once TMV hits resistance next week. Longby grumpa06221
US 20 Year Yield: Bearish Harami at Bearish Bat PCZThere is a Bearish Harami at the HOP level of a Bearish Bat with Impulsive RSI BAMM Confirmation. Alongside that, we also have 2 Major Squareups significantly below the current level and also an unfilled gap. If these Bearish Signals at the highs are to play along, this should be the start of an even greater retrace to fill the downside gap and to complete the square ups. This would likely come with some Bearishness in DXY and upside in the TLT which may also spillover into the IEF.Shortby RizeSenpai7
US20Y Analysis. I am bearish...Hello Everyone i want share my idea about US economic indicator. US economic is very strong what we hear but when i am looking that that price action tell me they are falling. This picture is simple, if my technical analysis will work here we have some strong RSI divergence, if indicator will drop below 50 LVL we will see some little trend change at lower timeframe but, if it will continue fall then we will see dollar fall too. Price were 3 times in overbuy, first and second time it fall but not too much and third time we have more clear divergences. For my prediction i need close this month below of last month low and give me new low-high. then i will try short Dollar index. for that it need few weeks to see we are right or not but at the moment i think i am right. BE PATIENT!!!Shortby elmakachoUpdated 225
Observing Bearish Divergence in the 20-Year Bond MarketIn the world of finance and investing, keeping a watchful eye on market trends and indicators is essential for making informed decisions. Lately, I've been closely monitoring the 20-year bond market, and I've noticed some intriguing signals that could have far-reaching implications for the financial landscape. What caught my attention is the presence of a significant bearish divergence pattern on the daily chart. This divergence suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, which could have ripple effects throughout the financial sector. Bearish divergence occurs when an asset's price makes higher highs, while a key technical indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), makes lower highs. In the case of the 20-year bond market, this divergence is becoming increasingly evident. This pattern typically suggests a weakening bullish trend and a potential reversal in the making. One of the intriguing aspects of this bearish divergence is its potential to put pressure on overleveraged banks. When the bond market shows signs of weakness, banks holding substantial positions in bonds can face increased risks. Overleveraging has been a concern in the financial industry, and a downturn in the bond market could be a catalyst for addressing this issue. However, here's where things get even more interesting. While the bearish divergence might suggest a market correction or even a bear market, I have a hunch that central banks might have a different playbook in mind. Instead of allowing a sharp market downturn, they could intervene with massive Quantitative Easing (QE) programs. Quantitative Easing is a monetary policy tool used by central banks to stimulate the economy by purchasing financial assets, typically government bonds. By injecting liquidity into the market, central banks aim to lower interest rates, encourage borrowing and spending, and provide support to the financial system during challenging times. In this scenario, central banks might use the bearish divergence as an opportunity to step in with substantial QE measures. By doing so, they could provide a safety net for the bond market, stabilize financial institutions, and prevent a market crash. However, there's another twist to consider. Before initiating massive QE, central banks might strategically "flush out" leverage from the market. This could involve allowing a controlled market decline to clear out excessive leverage and speculative positions. Once the market has undergone this cleansing process, central banks could then step in with their QE measures to support a healthier financial environment. In conclusion, the bearish divergence in the 20-year bond market is a noteworthy development that has the potential to impact various aspects of the financial sector. While it may indicate a weakening trend, it's essential to keep in mind that central banks often have tools at their disposal to mitigate the effects of market turbulence. Their actions in response to this divergence could be crucial in determining the market's direction in the coming months. As an investor, it's essential to stay informed, closely monitor market trends, and be prepared for various potential outcomes. The financial world is dynamic and ever-changing, and being adaptable to different scenarios is key to successful investment strategies.by lukedotcom2
US20YR - The end is in sightBonds have been selling off at unprecedented rates for unprecedented lengths. The yield curve as started the un-invert indicating the recession is less than a year out. The question remains if rates will remain "higher for longer" or if the flattening will include a swift fall in rates due to recessionary pressures, possibly leading to deflation. If Steven Van Meters and Harry Dent 's predictions are (eventually) true then a play in TLT or TMF is warranted and would lead to gains in the multiples.Shortby Merit-Ocrasse3
TLT - US20YPossible reversion into the price of US20Y, the MACD show a divergency and the stoch and sensible RSI are overbought. Maybe the 5% is the top, maybe I'm wrong but there is a good time to buy TLT for long runLongby Manzanex0
TLT vs. US20Y ~ Snapshot TA / Inverse Correlations V2Update from original TLT vs. US20Y idea: - Switched to New Pane comparison for optimized viewing/zooming in on price movements. - Added TLT Candles for better price action analysis. - Added TLT trend lines for greater emphasis on inverse correlation + indication of trend break-outs. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) AMEX:HYG NASDAQ:TLT TVC:US02Y TVC:US05Y TVC:US10Y TVC:US20Y TVC:US30Y by BlueHatInvestor1
TLT vs. US20Y ~ Snapshot TA / Inverse CorrelationsTVC:US20Y double-tops, while NASDAQ:TLT creates a double-bottom.. Question to ask tho - has US20Y actually double-topped, or is this just retracement for a bigger push beyond ATHs? Looking for further signs of confirmation that long-ended yields have indeed peaked...then I'll feel more confident in popping the champagne. Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers :) AMEX:HYG TVC:US02Y TVC:US05Y TVC:US10Y TVC:US30Y by BlueHatInvestor1
US20YHi, everybody should consider this huge upward move in longterm bond yield .... but in my opinion now it is reaching resistance and if it breaks this floor it can attach upper band of parallel channel.... additionally to all of them look at TLT longterm bond ETF always you need to track this for interest rate expectations insight..... Good luckShortby Logical_Markets2
Yields Surging / TLT FallingThe technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing. The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year. Imagine TLT long bond traders! Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very forward looking.by Trading-Capital5
US20Y, 3d ChartPublishing the 20 year yield chart to track the progress relative to TLT. The breakout appears to be gathering steam and if this goes parabolic, things will get very interesting. Idea on TLT: by cmerged0
20 Year Yield: Bullishthe 20 year yields has also recaptured all of the key daily moving averages. The yield charts on the weekly and monthly chart look ridiculously strong. by Trading-Capital113