US30Y trade ideas
Divergence between yield and index price actionAs it is known that bond prices are inversely proportional to their respective yield, a decrease in yield means an increase in the price of the bond. Right now we are seeing a continuous decrease in the 30-year bond yield (same goes for the 10-year bond yield_) even the indexes and the global markets as a whole have been going up. This means that bond prices are rising to show an increase in the demand for bonds. This is divergent because usually, the opposite happens. The markets doing well is usually shown by money moving out of low-risk long term bonds and into stocks.
The opposite can also be said. When the markets go down or economic uncertainty and risk is on the table, money flows out of stocks (and short term bonds) and into more secure long term bonds, increasing their price and decreasing the yield. The fact that indexes seem to be recovering but long term yields have continued to trend down is a big red flag and should risk should be considered before going long here.
US Bond Yields At Median lineLooking at the 30 years. There seems to be a lot of movement on the bond market that the financial media has been totally ignoring!
The bond yields reached a high of 3.46 November 2 2018!
These heights were broken when the price broke and Closed below the 3.4 level
The current yield is showing an uptrend. The uptrend is an extension of the Fibonacci area.
US30 (BOND) BUYSo looks like US30 will rally up towards the weekly retest region. Should be able to move upwards further due to the face that the 21 SMA has crossed over the 50 SMA suggesting a reversal in the pattern and now will create new HH AND LH.
THe most extreme yield curve tail ... better accuracy then 10-2Y03months to 30 years US treasury bond yields...
USD SHOULD FALL IN LINE WITH 30YR GOVERNMENT BONDSThe bond market is a place where traders can gauge the strength or weakness of a currency. Typically when looking at the US 30YR Government Bonds, if the price of the bonds increases it tells us that traders are willing to invest into the US economy for the long term. This then should show that the USD is likely to increase in price.
If the price of the bonds decrease it tells us that traders are unwilling to invest in the US economy for the long-term and that we should expect the price of the USD to fall.
Currently, the 30YR Bonds are struggling to increase any higher and we could likely see a fall in price back to the highs in May.
This tells us that the USD could fall lower in the coming weeks. Keep an eye out for this correlation and try looking at the past history using the compare tool here on TradingView.
YIELD CURVE FORECASTING TOOL"There's a warning sign for the economy with an amazing track record: The last five times it flashed, the U.S. economy went into recession within about a year.
This economic crystal ball takes the views of people and institutions from from all around the world and boils them down into a single, simple signal."
When the yield curve has inverted for a quarter, that means longer term interest rates on average are lower than shorter term interest rates. This predicts that a recession will follow.
- Campbell Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University
www.npr.org
YIELD CURVE FORECASTING TOOLWhen the yield curve has inverted for a quarter, that means longer term interest rates on average are lower than shorter term interest rates. This predicts that a recession will follow.
- Campbell Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University
Yield Curve vs S&P PerformanceWhats Up Guys,
Have been listening to a lot of chatter about the Yield Curve, so I wanted to plot it out for myself and do a little homework.
Put some things into perspective for me. Have a look - let me know your thoughts
The preponderance of evidence: US 30-yr bond yieldsThis is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence.
Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months.
$tlt $spy LT trend is still downThis is how I see it playing out. We are at or near peak business cycle
US 30 YR YIELDHello everyone. Here is a trade idea on the 30 year Treasury yield. According to the weekly chart, there is a breakout of the inverted heads and shoulders of the 30 year yield.
Macro Thesis: The FED controls the short term interest rate, and the long term interest rates are determined by the supply and demand, meaning the buyers and sellers of the long bond. The last thing the FED wants is an inverted yield curve . IF this thesis is correct, the the 30 year bull run of the long bond might be ove r.
According to the chart, the 30 year yield has the potential to reach 4.2% according to the inverted heads and shoulders target. With the 30 year yield up, the 10 year yield will follow, and the FED will raise rates to the neutral target of above 3%. The trade has a reward to risk of 3.6, if the stop is placed near the right shoulder.
GOOD LUCK
us 30 government bond#Us30 goverment bond might be looking bullish in the next coming weeks
price broken up 2 patterns on the charts
if u entere the market without any reason you will be slapped like crazy..so to go long find a correction that will signal us for a bullish move
im not giving any signal or so on this is an overview of what j see..good luck
Rising rates: Why is the 30 year yield so low? The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now.
The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates.
Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'.
More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's accelerating Quantitative Tightening.
So all in all why isn't the 30 year yield closer to 4% like it was only four years ago?
For several years the market has priced in low expectations for the long term.
The yield curve continues to flatten towards the lowest spreads since leading up to the great recession.
(28 basis points on the 30-5 spread and 30 points on the 10-2 spread).
At this rate the curve could flatten or invert in 6 to 12 months.
An inverted yield curve historically is followed by economic recession.
What's your thoughts?
