Yield Curve Continues To FlattenThe yield curve struggles to come up for air as it hurdles toward zero. The slope of the trend is clearly decreasing, indicating that the flattening is accelerating. We've tested the lower bound of the Bollinger Band without a relief rally which is a very bearish sign. Also the Kovach Chande indicator is bearish and appears to be increasingly more so.
If you find this technical analysis useful, check out my indicators at quantguy.net!
US30Y trade ideas
Yield Curve Continues to FallAs investors price in lower inflation and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike, the yield curve (between the 30 year bond and the two year note) is continuously making new lows. Typically, the flattening or steepening of the yield curve is led by one end, but in this case, both appear to be contributing equally. This presents a problem for the Fed as raising rates (or more hawkish rhetoric) could hurl the yield curve closer to negative territory.
We can see the spread has been hugging the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator for some time, which is an extremely bearish sign. Also, the slope of the spread has become increasingly more negative.
If you want access to the Kovach Reversals indicator and more, check out quantguy.net.
30 Year, 2 Year Spread Making New LowsThe spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed.
This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the Kovach Reversal Indicator. If you're interested in using this indicator, check out quantguy.net.
The Yield Curve Flattens and Altcoins RipAs the markets price in the next interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, we see the spread between the 30 year and 2 year US treasuries continue to flatten. It is probably not coincidence that peaks in the Altcoin Index match up with with relative bottoms (especially recently) in the treasury spread.
Also, although this is somewhat due to the Segwit2x drama this weekend, observe how the Altcoin Index has really skyrocketed over the past couple days. This may indicate some cryptocurrency adoption from 'smart money', though many establishment figureheads have publicly rebuked cryptos.
If you're interested in the Kovach Altcoin Index or the Crypto Spread Indicator, among other tools, please check out quantguy.net