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US30Y trade ideas

Weekend Update: Bond yields to move higherI received a request to update this chart. Thank you @Braeden2 The US30Y held it's wave 4 bottom in the .382% area of wave 3. The last time I posted this chart we had not yet embarked on our 5-wave pattern higher in what I'm counting as a wave 5. Today we see we have a wave 1 and 2 in place. Additionally, you'll notice how our recent wave 4 structure alternates with our previous wave 2 structure. We should have been expecting wave 4 to be deep and quick, were as our wave appears shallow and long. That is precisely what occurred. From here I would expect within the next month to begin to clearly subdivide in our wave 3 of 5 and target yields in the 4.294% to 4.529%. This would be for our wave 3. Upon that happening we'll need a 4 and then the ultimate destination for this structure is in the target box for wave 5. I've enjoyed the ongoing conversations in Trader-World about who is right?...The bond market or the Fed? I don't follow bonds closely, nor have I ever traded them, therefore I don't what constitutes victory for bonds or The Fed. But I will pose this question to those reading this...what does 4.895% yield on the 30y mean? Who wins, Bonds, The Fed, or both? Best to all, Chris
TVC:US30Y
by maikisch
4
Long US 5s30 Yield CurveThe US Government Treasury 5Y vs the US Government Treasury 30Y is now back above inverted levels and will continue this path as the FOMC hawkish rhetoric and major policy error will drive the US into a recession this year. It is in our opinion that this trade will move from inversion to +100bp as the FOMC pivots, equity markets falter and the FOMC stops their QT and stops Mortgage Back Securities and US Treasury roll offs. In a fiat fractional reserve system the current set up requires continued fiat printing or QE in order to keep asset prices higher. Also inflation is transitory and stemmed from the fiscal direct payment stimulus post Covid. We will see wage pressure come down, debt service go up and a tighter economic environment. All of this is telegraphed already in leading economic indicators. We believe this trade has a better than 5 to 1 payoff structure, risking -25bp to make 125bp. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS- Trading is risky and may involve leverage, Magnelibra or any of its affiliates are not suggesting in any way to guarantee any profits or against any future losses. Trading should be done by well capitalized and individuals well versed in quantifying risk.
TVC:US30YLong
by magnelibra
Micro Drift Patterns One of the more powerful but under-appreciated categories of patterns are very short term drift patterns in strongly trending markets. Flags, pennants and small lateral trading ranges can all fall into this category. The patterns are fractal, that is, they appear across all time frames. I find small multi drift patterns invaluable. First, they are ubiquitous. They appear in virtually all trends and time frames. Second, their completion affirms that underlying trend remains intact. Finally, the manner in which they develop, for instance, the slope, extent and volume of the counter trend move can all offer clues as to the underlying strength of the trend. Most strong trends unfold in a push - drift - push pattern, sprinting quickly in the direction of the trend, accruing a short term overbought or oversold, and then drifting counter to the sprint. As these patterns "drift" against the prevailing trend, they alleviate the short term overbought or oversold condition that accrued during the sprint. You can think of the drift as a "pause that refreshes." It is important that the market DRIFT. The best examples contain overlapping price ranges (in whatever perspective you are working in) and don't typically retrace much of the prior sprint. Volume should generally decline throughout the pattern, particularly if the pattern builds over 5-10 periods. The best examples have substantial range overlap from day to day. The classic literature requires a sharp move, or a flag pole, for these patterns to fly from, a decline in volume as the pattern builds and that the pattern last no more than 10-15 bars. In my experience, finding drift patterns that fill all these "requirements'' is difficult. My personal approach minimizes the requirements. As long as the pattern occurs after a decent thrust (I prefer the thrust to go to new high or low ground) and then drifts against the prevailing trend, I can use it to develop either a fresh entry to the prevailing trend or simply as a validation of the underlying trend. Importantly, the pattern is typically better defined in the chart of one perspective lower. For instance, drift patterns in the weekly chart can be better seen on the daily chart, and drift patterns on the daily, in the hourly. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Editors' picks
TVC:US30YEducation
by CMT_Association
29
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. Today’s content: Strategy in an inflationary environment: i. Commodity – Buy them ii. Stock market – Trade them Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend? CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
15
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8% for this year. If this is the case in 2023, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. We can participate in hedging the market and trading the interest rate in this example. CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com I hope this tutorial will be helpful, in enabling you to read into the market with greater clarity. Stay-tune for the video version shortly, we will do more in-depth study.
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
1
GOVERNMENT BONDS YIELD. INVERTED CURVEWhat are GOVERNMENT BONDS YIELD? Bonds are Fixed Income instruments that allow investors to anticipate the flow of funds they will receive. What does an inverted yield curve mean? Put simply, this means that short-term US debt is more profitable than long-term debt. Economic theory says that in a “normal” situation, long-term lending should be more profitable than short-term lending. An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on short-term bonds (US03MY, US06MY, US01Y) is greater than the yield on longer-term bonds (US30Y, US20Y) . This is bad for the economy and worse if it is the United States because it means that they are relying on the economy in the short term since the "normal" thing is that long-term bonds give better yields. Some economists and analysts see in this situation an indicator that a next economic crisis is coming, either in the form of a slowdown in GDP or even a recession.
TVC:US30YEducation
by Ed_Ale