Rates down from here (but short-term 2022-2023)Last time I made a forecast about rates going to rise. Now it will retrace for a while.
NFA = Not financial advice
US30Y trade ideas
HIGH LOW Spread US30Y YieldDaily HIGH LOW Spread US bond 30Y Yield vs SPX index, for trying to signal bottoms ...
US30YR Targeting A Pivotal Equality TestIn this update we review the recent price action in the US30YR and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target
Same as the US2YT, I've decreased the upside potentialFor the same reason, I think the US30YT and the US2YT can be inverted at this level by -0.25% and no more can be done because of the high recession level incoming.
In next weeks this will happen, this summer in my point on view
US30Y Playing For A 5th Wave ExtensionIn this update we review the recent price action in the US30Yr and identify the next high probability trading strategy and price objectives to target
USA 30 Years Bond USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Bonds- a comparison of current yields vs 2018Here is a chart of the 2yr / 5yr /10yr / & 30yr yields
The BLUE LINE represents the highest yields from 2018
The WHITE LINE represents the highest yields from 20202
✅US30Y WILL GO DOWN|SHORT🔥
✅US30Y is trading in a rising narrowing wedge
But the price action is bearish
Especially given that a strong horizontal resistance
Was recently retested
So I think that after the breakout
The price will go further down
SHORT🔥
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USA 30 Years Bonds USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
US30Y Local Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US30Y is trading in a bearish triangle
Which formed after the price retested
A horizontal resistance level
So we are bearish biased
And after the breakout a short
Will be an appropriate trade to take
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
Housing : Are you ready for the rate of 4,5-4,75% ?Using this idea, the mortgage rate should be between 7% and 8%. Ready for this ?
us bond yieldsus bond yields has given breakout. fed may hike rates further . one need to be cautious with positions. we may not know what is hide in future but currently is not looking good, we need to prey that this breakout turns to be a falls breakout
US30Y interest rate hike prognosis over the long term.Due to the rising inflation, the Fed has stepped in to reign in inflation. Jerome Powell has stated numerous times he will be aggressive with rate hikes just like Paul Volcker was in the '80s. Powell and Volcker are of the same school of thought.
"Inflation emerged as an economic and political challenge in the United States during the 1970s. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve board, led by Volcker, were widely credited with curbing the rate of inflation and expectations that inflation would continue. US inflation, which peaked at 14.8 percent in March 1980, fell below 3 percent by 1983. The Federal Reserve board led by Volcker raised the federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in 1981 as well, which helped lead to the 1980–1982 recession, in which the national unemployment rate rose to over 10%." - Wikipedia on Paul Volcker
What does that mean for us?
In essence, lower equity prices, temporary economic contraction and higher lending rates to reign in cheap capital.
Looking at the 30 year US government Bond Yields (US30Y), I am expecting yields to continue to increase from current 3.2% --> 4.1% --> 4.8% --> 5.5% and finally 7.2%. If inflation continues higher, then rates will likely continue to rise over the next few years. The era of cheap lending is over.
Trade safely.
US30 Wait For Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
US30 was trading in a downtrend
In a falling parallel channel
But now we are seeing a bullish breakout attempt
Thus, IF the breakout happens
We will see a further move up
Towards the resistance above
Buy!
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See other ideas below too!
Trend Reversal in US 30 Years Bonds? Investment Opportunity?A longer term look at the US 30 Year Bonds reveals that the yields have broken to the upside of 2 standard deviation of the linear regression channel.
In a way bonds have already executed the FED rate hikes.
You can get around 3% yield on a US 30 year bond.
Question is if the bond market will track lower increasing yield rates even further.
Depending on your investment strategy this may be worth considering.
I am still puzzled why not more money is not pouring into USD stablecoins as one get get e.g. 15% yield with UST on Nexo.
That appears to be a no brainer, still there is some risk associated with the platform, but not too much more then with a bank.
In any case US bonds are attractive assuming the FED will eventually be forced to pause rate hikes.
Then a 3% yield with a potentially rising bond is a sweet deal.
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US30Y Targeting Equality ObjectiveIn this update we review the recent price action in the US30Y Bond Yield and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objective to target
US30Y: Rising Yield as the expectation of Rising Interest Rate?U.S. Inflation has surged significantly to 8.5% in March 2022, It hits a new forty-year high. As the Inflation keeps increasing month over month, The Federal Reserve is committed to tackling inflation by Rising Interest Rate, potentially 0.50% in May 2022. The rising interest rate will cause bond prices to fall. Consequently, The Bond yield will be increased.
Chart Perspective:
US 30 Years Government Bond Yield (US30Y) has broken out of the falling wedge pattern. US30Y is also accompanied by a golden cross on the MACD indicator.
We conclude from the macro and chart perspective, That is a potential bullish outlook for US 30 Years Treasury Yield.
The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the support/target area.
*Disclaimer: The outlook is only used for Educational Purposes, The Creator doesn't responsible for any of your trade position or other financial decisions*
US 30Y GOV BONDS YIELDWILL IT BE THE FIRST TIME TO TOUCH THE MONTHLY 200MA AT 3.5%?
While DXY continues it's rally towards new highs, 103 and beyond.
US30Y Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my chart for the 30-year US government bond yield, there is a high probability of a bullish trend in the next few days.
Crash Incoming 8?This time the US30Y-US10Y (thanks to the TradingView user 'jscheurichiv' to remind me this chart). Same principle applies here, in the last decades, several months after the inversion of the yield (blue line) a big crash occurred. Invest, but with extra risk management -'with an eye' in charts like these one, for example-, in the next weeks or months.
Part 1) Don't Fight The Fed with 30 Year Interest Rate Target.There's an apparent "reverse head & shoulders pattern" on the Monthly 30 Year Yield Chart. The implication of the broken neckline is a reversal of the previous downtrend. Dow theory teaches us that the minimum upside target is the depth of the neckline to the peak of the "head." I see potential resistance at the downward resistance trendline and then again at the previous swing high. If the trend breaks back below the neckline then the whole pattern is suspect. If the reversal is legit then we can suggest the time frame to reach the target would be the width of the "head & shoulders" along the neckline. In this instance the chart is suggesting we get to the price target in about three years give or take.
Thoughts?
US 30 YEARS-WEEKLY-UPSIDE BREAKOUT ! WEEKLY (W1)
Last week price action triggered a LONG WHITE BULLISH CANDLE which broke up and close @ 2.5890 on a weekly basis above the former high @ 2.5160 reached a year ago in March 2021.
RSI @ 70.85 is not converging therefore there is a potential BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN PROGRESS !
On the other hand, the LAGGING LINE is far away above the TS, KS and the weekly clouds too which is supportive for further development.
Currently above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 2.4130 % of the 3.4650 - 0,71 downside move,
Next Fibonacci extension (78.6%) is @ 2.8750 % former congestion seen in 2019, 2018, 2018 and earlier.
DAILY (D1)
Ongoing (yield) uptrend price action still alive with its first significant support level @ 2.50 (cluster of Tenkan-Sen and ongoing support trend line); below
there is 2 levels to look at very carefully :
S2 : @ 2.3910 (MBB)
S3 : @ 2.3570 (KS)
A BREAKOUT OF THE LATTER LEVEL WOULD PUT THE FOCUS TO THE DAILY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (2.25-2.07)
On the upside, there is a potential double & triple top in progress, coupled with a potential RSI bearish divergence too.
Therefore, ongoing price action and more important, next daily closing level will may be validate or invalidate the potential reversal previously mentioned.
4 HOURS (H4)
DOUBLE & TRIPLE TOP IN PROGRESS !!!
Indeed, recent rallies above the 2.64 % level triggered a potential double & triple top which is coupled also with a RSI bearish divergence...
The H4 uptrend support line is still alive and in this H4 time frame the TENKAN-SEN @ 2.5720 ahead of the cluster of KIJUN-SEN and MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 2.55 should be seen as the first support area to look at very carefully in this H4 time frame.
A failure to hold above 2.55 would put the focus on the H4 clouds support area (2.48-2.41) , 2.4240 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the last upside move starting @ 2.0690 towards the high so far @ 2.6440.
Below the 50% Fib ret is @ 2.3560 which is also the Kijun-Sen on the 4 hours time frame.
1 HOUR (H1)
Wonderful school study case shown on the hourly chart with a DOUBLE TOP in progress (second top higher than the first !) coupled with a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE.
TRIGGER LEVEL @ 2.5650. - Target if broken 2.48 which corroborate the previous view expressed on H4
Have a nice trading day.
IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
30YR Rates approaching oversold if not already there.30YR rates approaching oversold, looking to short technical reversal sometime soon.
