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US30Y trade ideas

The start of a long train wreakSo in conclusion, with the merals issue, supply issue, housing issue, inflation issue, investors heads in the sand issue, tech issue, incompetent leaders (all of them) issue and FED issue. This chart being a fraction of a fraction of a percent from inversion in 10-7 and already inverted in 30-20 makes more sense then the random PPT rally an hour before close today. The trajectory in my honest opinion is downward for markets and the economy and inversions in the bond market. It appears the bonds are signaling a new black swan, this we will have to wait and see (reference .com, 08, 2014 and the pandemic for more) There will always be gains and plenty of ways of making money during this downturn, always is. Nothing goes straight up or down without the inverse being true too. I am calling for a missive recession, tho this is just my opinion. Let me know what you think? Can the FED save the day? Do you see a recession? I want to hear your thoughts below.
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
The start of a long trainNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are. As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a percent away from inverting and a inversion percent in the 30y to 20y is as much currently. 30y to 20y is already inverted. There are MANY reasons why and this is not so simple. Bonds are selling off across the board with only the 1mo remaining the same. Tho today seems to be about flat, the trend continues. Housing, rate hikes, savings, inflation, liquidity, fomo speculation and foriagn investments are all tied to this and as a result the analysis will continue with other charts produced today
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
Another monumental momentNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Before I get into this I urge everyone who sees this chart to back track to the .com bubble on this chart, then move up to 08, then check out pre lock downs. With that out of the way, lets get into the FEEVR Analysis! As mentioned above you should look at the historical data provided on this bonds chart. Today and over the weekend we saw the 30yr-20yr invert. This is bad for a number of reasons but mostly having to do with debt and inflation. as stated previously, the inversion marks the start of what can only be assumed as a flee from 'safe haven assets'. This is bad because bonds as a percent, tightening, has historically preluded some of the biggest economic and market wide black swans. Looking at the bond market it is repeating this trend and only seems to be starting which would make me assume through an educated guess that we are about 1 1/2 to 2yrs out from another major black swan, market altering event. Please, please, please be careful. We can time this and there is sure to be lots of money made during this time, just DONT be the last one to the exit. I am currently working on a analysis on the Comms sector of the S&P. That will be out tomorrow. Ic alle dit, telecommunications is rocking and internet is failing. I have identified manipulation in this sector on RRG and now I am just trying to nail it down on the charts here for you all to see. Happy monday everyone!
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
US30YEARS-W1/D1-PULLBACK HOLD TOO !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered three important information : 1) a pullback followed by a nice recovery 2) a weekly closing for the first time just above the clouds but... 3) an hanging man pattern (usually "bearish"" ) and which should be validated or invalidated by the next weekly candle ! The 50 % Fibonacci retracement ƒ 2.0890 % has been filled. For the upcoming week, watch the clouds area which was the former resistance and which became now the new support zone; have also a look at the former downtrend line resistance, currently @ 2.00% ahead of the ongoing uptrend line support around 1.88 % which is also by the way the weekly clouds bottom level ! On the upside, a successful capacity to hold above the weekly clouds would open the door for higher levels towards the 61.8% Fib ret @ 2.4140% which was the former congestion top (2.41%-2.51%) reached in March 2021 DAILY (D1) Nice pullback which hold and a long white candle (bullish engulfing pattern) triggered on last Friday with a closing level roughly at the top of the day; nevertheless, as for the 10 years, there is also a small bearish divergence on the RSI and the price action over the coming session (s) should be monitored very closely to check the validation of invalidation of this important information. As for the weekly picture, a daily closing below the 2.00 % area should also be seen as a warning signal for a potential trend reversal. On the upside, a breakout, on a daily closing basis, of the 2.1770 %, (former high of october 8th 2021) would also confirm further upside in the cards towards the 61.8% Fib ret @ 2.41% mentioned in the weekly view. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US30YLong
by Ironman8848
Bonds dont like the clown showThe selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point. Crypto winter is here, Stocks did great today but those gains are no longer viable with a hawkish fed, homes are skyrocketing but people are already warning of a top, businesses have a labor shortage and with inflation it's obvious investors do not see US debt as a safe haven anymore. At least for now. I will keep you all updated. Hope you all have your popcorn at the ready.
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
2
Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same StoryWhatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years. No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten. Interestingly, if you pull up the charts on an individual basis, they all are retesting flags on a technical level. That doesn't mean they won't break back up and rally, but all three showing the same sign seems to add more weight behind likelihood that markets are in for a break upward in real rates and reduced liquidity / financial conditions.
TVC:US30Y
by GTStockmaster
US 30 YEARS - W1 - CLOUDS BROKEN !!!Last week price action triggered, as for the US 10 years, a long black candle which in this case also broke the weekly bottom clouds support level @ 1.85. The US 30 years is currently on an ongoing downtrend channel, very close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1.6130 (0.71-2.5160); RSI below 50 @ 34.04. Watch closely price ongoing price action and monitor closely the Lagging line which for the time being, after having successively broken the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen is still above the clouds !!! A failure, for the Lagging line to close on the next weekly closing basis above the clouds would add further pressure to the downside in putting the focus for lower levels towards the next significant support area around 1.40% which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. CONCLUSION : As for the US 10 years, watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) whihc for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend. Ironman8848
TVC:US30Y
by Ironman8848
US Government Bonds 30YR Yeld (US30Y)Fed officials say tapering ‘may soon be warranted’ and interest rates rise penciled in for 2022. Powell says announcement on tapering bond purchases could come in November. The formal announcement could come at the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting, barring a major setback for the economy or another coronavirus outbreak, Powell indicated. In updated projections, the Fed also penciled in three interest-rate hikes in 2023 and three more in 2024, bringing the benchmark interest rate up to 1.8% by the end of the period. The fed stuck with its forecast that inflation would fade back toward 2.2% by next year. The central bank expects the rate of inflation to top out around 4.2% in 2021, according to its new projections. Growth in the U.S. economy, for its part, is expected to slow from an estimated 5.9% this year to 3.8% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023. The economy’s long-term growth potential is viewed as about 2.5% a year. The unemployment rate is also forecast to fall to 3.5% by 2023 and match the 50-year low that existed prior to the onset of the pandemic. The unemployment rate is also forecast to fall to 3.5% by 2023 and match the 50-year low that existed prior to the onset of the pandemic.
TVC:US30YShort
by mgiuliani
1