Bonds and the troubles of economically advanced societiesBefore I begin, bonds are warning of something monstrous, they are signaling inflation and freezes everywhere. With that said, I'm glad to see some buying has happened over the last week or so. Look, liquidity is dead, the FED is our new liquidity. Inter and intra bank lending is also dead. so who is buying bonds? I'm not holding bonds, are you? I want to know, I think the FED is the majority buyer and seller of last resort, including bonds. Now this TGA account 1.1T drain is something interesting the bond market reacted to. There has been a lot of speculation as to what moves the market. This is where my re evaluation was needed. I dont think that FED brrrrrrrrr printer matters AT ALL. I think this market is so in need of money after a full year of rona, that EVERYONE is hoarding cash. This means brrrrrr does not matter because it is leaving the market too quickly, but stimulus.... Stimulus just moved the market today after 2 generally bad weeks on the market (for bulls). Some spending happens before people save their stimmy. THIS IS BAD, and I think the bonds know it BIG TIME. To hedge i would recommend you understand the asset pie and be diversely invested. I do think silver will be the poor mans saving grace, just like every time before in history.
