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US 30Y yield

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US30Y trade ideas

US Government Bonds 30YR Yeld (US30Y)Bond MOVE index says something big is brewing and it’s usually trouble. The index jumped from 40 points at the end of September to the current 60. The MOVE index is therefore the equivalent of the VIX bond market. The MOVE index measures the volatility on options traded on US Treasury Bonds, it represents a risk barometer to understand how the sentiment of operators on the US bond market tends to move. The MOVE Index tends to move between 80 and 120, with 80 representing a situation of extreme complacency and 120 representing a sentiment of extreme fear. Since the implied volatility is the cost of insurance, the MOVE measures the willingness of investors to purchase risk insurance. The lower this index, the lower the demand for risk protection.
TVC:US30YShort
by mgiuliani
1
ridethepig | End Game in the Cycle📌 This diagram portrays the final stages in the economic cycle which I called in 2019. The position arose after Equities began extending beyond reality; all sellers needed was an intending cause. The construct of the ingredients here are clear and simple, after Fed cleared the runway till 2022 you can see the risk coming out of bonds. Of course now it creates the "following subtle trap" where the belly of the curve begins to move towards the front end which then brings the 30Y with it. It is worth pointing out where other countries in the world are as there is little divergence on the rates differentials now: 📍 Spain 📍 Singapore 📍 Canada 📍 UK 📍 Japan 📍 Germany There is no reason why the US cannot see a retracement back to 0.9% / 0.8% levels ... Watch for the next dominos in Equities and Gold based on deep knowledge of the flows as we can call it. More risk to come.
TVC:US30YShort
by ridethepig
1
US30Y Looking like it wants higherWith the market looking ready to accept risk again, and with the economic outlook improving, I think we have a nice set of circumstances for bond prices to come back to reality and come down a bit from their stratospheric levels. That said, this is the yield chart, so that move would be represented by US30Y going up because prices move inversely to yields. Not going to trade it, but something I keep an eye on and I am thinking we'll see bond prices fall in the coming days into next week, barring any unforeseen news headline or development sparks a reversal in mindset.
TVC:US30YLong
by UnknownUnicorn5514496