The VIX is showing a monthly buy signalTVC:VIX
The VIX is showing a monthly buy signal. Historically, volatility increases by around 275% from the low within 1-3 months of the signal. Long volatility here.
VIX trade ideas
$VIX under support but holding tight, for nowTVC:VIX is trading under the "13" support level.
The 12 area has not been touch & there's a struggle trading above 13 again.
Let's dissect shorter term, 1Hr (not here, see profile)
There's slight positive divergence being formed.
However, it is way to early to say #VIX will reverse here.
CBOE:SPX closed STRONG on Friday and the #SPX500 had the highest in 2023.
AMEX:SPY
WARRING: Marco market conditions change incoming #SP500 $BTC CBOE Volatility Index has been used by investors for decades to identify macro market transitions.
This is 1 Year analysis of TVC:VIX in conjunctions with market developments.
1. 28th Sep '22 is the date TVC:VIX signalled oversold conditions on #SP500 where price double-bottomed and commenced this bullish wave we are living through
2. 9th of March '23 TVC:VIX signalled heavy market oversold conditions and #SP500 completed the first significant correction
3. 20th Oct '23 TVC:VIX signalled another #SP500 oversold condition triggering another continuation
At this stage is important to consider a important market rule "The Power of 3"; - TVC:VIX has topped 3 times now suggesting this intermediate bullish wave is coming to an end.
Now turn your attention to 22nd Jan '22 where TVC:VIX for a fist time dropped back to COVID-lows.
It had since repeatedly touched and rejected of these levels suggesting of bottom formation.
At the same time TVC:VIX signalled first significant market overbought condition very close to what it seems the bottom and shortly after forming 3rd oversold peak.
Traditionally CRYPTOCAP:BTC had front-run #SP500 and would expect crypto market to take downard turn before traditional markets which can serve as a final confirmation of an upcoming winter.
AMZN bullish uptrend has begun.Clear move to the upside. It's broken the previous resistance and looking to make new highs on volume.
The odds of another spike in the VIX are growingOn Friday, the Volatility S&P 500 Index reached new lows unseen since January 2020. What is intriguing about this situation is that new lows in the value of the VIX tended to be followed by a subsequent spike in the index and weakness in the U.S. stock market (over the past year or so). Considering that the recovery of the Chinese stock market is starting to show signs of stagnation, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index moving increasingly sideways, we are again on high alert. The odds of stock market reversal and spike in the VIX are growing.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 Index.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for an individual investor to take any trade action. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Decoding the VIX: Unraveling Market Sentiment in 2023's LowThis week, we've observed some intriguing movements in the VIX index, revealing key insights about the current state of market volatility. The VIX, often referred to as the market's 'fear gauge', achieved a new low for 2023, signaling a period of reduced market anxiety and volatility. This trend is especially noteworthy as the VIX typically inversely correlates with market performance, and its current levels are the lowest observed in four years.
Historically, such low levels in the VIX have at times preceded market downturns, as seen in the past following significant events like the Silicon Valley Bank failure. This pattern suggests a potential caution for traders despite the current calm in the market.
$VIX could be flashing BULL!TVC:VIX is almost @ the MAJOR SUPPORT level we have spoken about many times.
IF this 12 area is broken it has a history of going as low as 10.
Sub 10 = R A R E!
Pulling back to this area after a high VIX, then normalizing to a low #VIX, it has signified a GOOD CBOE:SPX RUN.
After some time, shortest span was 2 years, the VIX eventually trades higher & #stocks have an eventual crash.
VIX Spike - BIG Crash PendingThe VIX will spike again, nothing to do about it.
Fundamentally, a perfect storm is brewing.
We had/have many events in the markets:
- Covid Pandemic
- Supply Chain Disrupted
- Ukraine Invasion
- Russia Sanctions
- Inflation Spike
- Energy Crisis
- Global Drought
- Interest Rates Hikes
What's next, a full-blown WAR?
VIX - FEAR & Volatility - Flash Crash - IndicesVIX is pointing towards another spike in volatility as a probably scenario.
This would or could cause a major sell-off in Indices and Stocks, on a global scale.
Back to trading the Vix?The market is in a euphoric state and we are expecting 2024 to be yet another strong year for the stock market. But if you pay attention, the Russell 2000 decoupled from the rest of the market, and the recovery has been sluggish. A possible sign that the general market is not as healthy as we price it to be.
The Vix always trades in a channel during euphoric market conditions with outbursts when something triggers fear. If a trader trades this channel, it will be quite easy to make some good returns.
POSSIBLE VIX MOVEAll on the chart .Not claiming to be right , it is very possible that my judgment is clouded by the confirmation bias of me being long put on COST.
#VIXI was writing once about #VIX:
As history shows, the VIX can move around these values for a longer time too. This means that even if we come to 15, 11, 8-9, it is not necessary to wait for an instant market crash. We can get a not bad rally.
In front of you Monthly chart of #VIX
There is still space to go down. Be careful when #VIX touches levels below ***11.14 - 8.77***
Ince the price comes there - it is when you should look for shorts.
Also RSI on M TF shows me that there is still a place where to go. I highlighted levels at ***40.67$*** and ***38.91%*** on RSI for you, when its time to pay extra attention and look for shorts.
You can see that whenever RSI was coming there, the market was doing a pullback.
VIX is nearing 13! It's time to open a bullish VIX position 🚀✅ The VIX is nearing 13. Based on my analysis, this might be a good moment to consider cutting back on stocks and opening a bullish VIX position.
I went long on a VIX CALL with a 10th strike.
Historically, the VIX has rebounded from the 13 level. I'll increase the position if the VIX retreats further and take profit when it encroaches on the 16-19 bracket.
Remember to always manage your risk. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Happy trading!📈🚀
Possible outlook on VIXPatience with this one is the key.
Extreme Greed is quite persistent, and its where I am slowly getting in
This shoots way to fast to trade it, also market is very tricky lately, so I prefer swing on this one.
Good luck
$VIX retesting & possibly breaking in the future?Daily TVC:VIX seems to be heading lower, likely retest 13.
Weekly not much sign of holding, maybe 12?
Longer term the trend from 2020 is obviously broken. Even the monthly can't help now.
There is STAUNCH support @ 13 then 12.
This area has been strong for a long time.
BREAKS? Then 10.
#ViX
$VIX indicating market exhaustionI have been observing this closely.
What I see is use now going to a third retest of a C19 lows forming a triple bottom and effectively indicating end of this bullish move that had carried across since Sep last year.
As we are entering triple-tested overbought condition on CBOE:SPX believe we are holding the final straw waiting for a market catalyst that wil send prices lower.
I also put this in the context of recent wall-street driven CRYPTOCAP:BTC rally and general market anticipation of 40K price milestone and heavily overbought conditions on low volume similar to the double top the past bull market.
CPI over-expected good and Spot ETF will make VIX dropAs Title said, CPI over-expected good in NOV and BlackRock BTC Spot ETF will boost market and VIX drop down in 12-14 range
VIX Volatility Index ~ Trend Analysis (2H Chart)TVC:VIX chart mapping/analysis.
Always been a firm-believer in strong negative correlation with SPX.
Key is not matching SPX highs with VIX lows ie "catching the bottom" - it should be used as a supplementary indicator for overall market direction, by identifying key support/resistance areas for trend switches that aids you in developing a Trading Edge .
Chart Example:
October 2022 peak in VIX marked (temporary?) bottom in SPX
VIX unable to break above ~34 resistance zone after multiple attempts = gives way to lower highs & lower lows (change in trend)
SPX responds by making series of higher highs & higher lows
VIX bottoms around July 2023, unable to break below ~13 resistance zone (ie trend switch)
SPX peaks in July & proceeds to pull back until recent reversal - coinciding with dramatic drop in volatility
This is by no means a done & dusted chart - after all it's called the "Volatility Index" lol.
It will require ongoing tweaking, back-testing & confluence with SPX TA work, as well as vigilance of evolving macro-economic events which get rapidly priced into both indices.
Good luck :)
Note: "SPX TEMP BOTTOM horizontal line should be adjusted higher to sit on VIX peaks - can't edit chart & cbf re-publishing...but you get the idea, cheers.
VIX on the verge on a momentous move?The VIX has been accumulating in the blue rectangle for 4 months and I expect to see some reaction from the lows, coinciding with the arc.
VIX has been beaten hard recently and has been trading extremely low. Only the beginning of 2020 did we see lows similar to this.
This is not trading advice, just an idea.
Cheers, and good luck!
Possible scenario for US indicesPossible scenario for a dull data next week for US30, NAS100 and US500
VIXLooks like VIX is coming home to its range low around 14 and may even break down further to its intra-yearly lows beneath 13
Vix Minor 3: For real this timeUltimately, the last idea was early and invalidated, accordingly. I do think the count is nowripe for a Minor 3 to develop. Price is still 1s and 2s, but over the next 4-6 days, I will be observing short ES and NQ entries and looking to strike. If trading VIX, long entries could be nice, here, because we are in a range and maybe vega available. Plenty of confusion.
In that regard, I want to point out that what looks like Minute ((ii)) in ES actually went lower in VIX, so if this is correct, the way that Vix is calculated may necessarily "force" it break EWT rules. Just an idea that I hear more discussion about. I am no mathematician, but find the query interesting.
Will update as the track unfolds.
Best,
Cuz
