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VIX trade ideas

no matter what way you cut it, the VIX needs 12.50 firstno matter what way you cut it, the VIX needs 12.50 before it rallies and the markets correct. We should bounce at 12.50 with an 80% probability, but before our major market correction, again we will post sub 12$ pps tape hits on the VIX, but i think we bounce again at 12.50 and continue this way until Q3-Q4 when we threaten the sub $12 market, but we may like in past corrections, hit sub $12 months before rallying, sub $12 on the VIX is not a trigger it's a sign for something imminent it may happen right away or months later.
TVC:VIXShort
by candlestickninja
Attention! Signs That Our Pullback Is Over.Traders, Previously, you know that I had anticipated that our pullback might last a bit longer through May. However, today the charts are showing me that this might not be the case. Let's start with the SPY. Originally, I had predicted a touch of the bottom of the RED channel. Then, based upon my analysis of the dollar, VIX, precious metals, and mega-corp stocks, I thought that it might be possible for SPY to even enter into the orangish-yellow area. Today, the SPY has popped back above the RED channel and is now doing battle with our 50 Day SMA. This is a bullish indicator for sure. If we can beat the 50 day by CoB today, we'll have a fairly good indicator that our pullback may be over. We'll need more indicators to agree of course, but this is a good start. The VIX agrees rn, as it has broken below support and fear continues to drop. The dollar also agrees. Previously, I had anticipated a touch of that 107 level. Nope. The dollar has decided to break down and out of our bearish megaphone pattern early. We knew it was going to happen soon and so we were prepared. I am happy to report the news because with the dollar down and the VIX down you all know what this usually indicates for stocks right? UP. ...And our blow-off top continues into the election months as expected. Then a crash. Of course, we'll need a confirmation candle on the daily for all of the above. If we get that, on we go. Watch all of these today and on Monday into next week. Monday (and next week) will be key as those days will give us the confirmation candle that we need, especially for the VIX and DXY. If they don't continue to break down, that will be our first warning that this was all a big head fake and we'll still have further pullback to weather out. This all influences crypto. That is why it is necessary to track. As always, I'll keep you up to date on these developments.
TVC:VIXLong
by stewdamus
Strategic Approach to Volatility Trading: Preparing for VIX DownWhen the VIX drops below $12, it's time to consider a cautious approach. Instead of jumping in headfirst, I gradually enter long positions in UVIX and UVXY calls over the course of one week to several months, while directly holding onto VIX, UVIX, and UVXY. Past experiences with mistimed UVXY Long Calls, particularly during the pre and post-COVID periods, have taught me to be wary of recency and confirmation biases. To navigate these waters, I adopt the perspective of a five-star general overseeing a drone center, analyzing the market with precision. While I anticipate fluctuations, my outlook remains bearish until the VIX hits $12, taking into account both short-term ups and downs. This is a strategy geared towards a relatively long or intermediate-term perspective, focusing on the bigger picture.
TVC:VIX
by candlestickninja
2
Mixed Reviews In Market Direction🟡Breadth - Stocks Above 50 Day 🔴 AMEX:SPY Red Light 🟢 AMEX:IWM Green Light 🟢 TVC:VIX Green Light 🔴Leaders NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SMCI NYSE:CPNG They are not leading but it's also feeling like there might be a changing of the guard or at least some of the guards? (New Leaders Emerge) 🟡Risk Appetite 🟢 NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:DJT 🔴 NASDAQ:SOUN CRYPTOCAP:BTC 👆Feels like risk appetite is mixed but still there. Love to hear some others thoughts on that risk appetite.
TVC:VIX
by JoelTCampbellJr
Volatility will be put to the test this weekWhile volatility pulled back following a spike earlier this month, this week will put it back to the test with the FOMC meeting (on Tuesday and Wednesday) and economic releases throughout the week, including S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, nonfarm payrolls, participation rate, and unemployment rate. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
VIX levelsMost people know, but there are only two relevant zones in VIX that foretell economy volatility (and the scariest buzzword of them all - a recession). Bears love to say the market will fall tomorrow, then next week, next month, next year, next presidential term, etc... until it finally happens, and they tell you they saw it coming all along. Meanwhile, their portfolio saw a gain of 2% in a bull market and huge losses on puts. Market is good for the foreseeable future, even if we know it shouldn't be. That's just how it works. I'll start worrying the day we see sustained activity over the upper level.
TVC:VIX
by fenditendi
VIX Trajectory through Q4: Once sub $12 is tested, it's on! am not bullish on the market. I am mostly holding selectively bullish until we get a sub $12 dip in the VIX. That's when I go long on UVXY, UVIX, URA, possibly GLD, cash, and short SQQQ and other stocks. If you look at the 1-month to 6-month history of the VIX back to as far as it goes, like the 1999/2002 tech bubble bursting, 2007/2008 RE Crisis turned Great Recession, and the 2019/2020 mini recession I call it with COVID, all of these, and probably further back if the VIX even was calculated, had 12-13 taps many times but only rose vertically after a sub 12 ($9.50-$11.50 test(s)). Team Biden will continue forgiving student loans, dumping every dollar from his creative rat hole into the markets to loosen the money supply and stimulate markets, even giving loan forgiveness (forgiving a debt of say $200k is the same as injecting the money into the market). If you search Reddit for student loan forgiveness relating to PSLF even after Republicans blocked this action, there's nothing but $100k-$500k+ student loans being 100% forgiven left and right for the last month. What happens with this? Well, it's a tricky way for Biden to try to capture more constituents, destroy our country as he has been in bed with China who owns most of our stuff indirectly, whether it's real estate, our bonds, whatever. Even disregarding my conspiracy theory on this, it's obvious that the Fed didn't lower rates yet as that's their Q3 to Q4 tool they will use last minute to give the markets one more push for Rhetoric/Election sake, it's disgusting. The VIX will continue testing the falling trend line which is around $19-$19.50 until the end of the year. We most likely (as history doesn't repeat but it sure AF rhymes) dip below $12 for a fleeting time, maybe only a few days, few weeks, or a month, but it won't be long. Once we dip to 11.59 on the VIX I'll begin scaling into ladder options across 1, 2, 3, 4, and monthly expirations long UVIX/UVXY. That's my plan, theories, assumptions, etc. I think we agree, but I'm also tactical. As I mentioned the day before yesterday when the VIX was at $19.50, yesterday, and right now, I called the VIX to drop back to $12-$17 which it did, we now should go to $15, then bounce back to $17 and continue doing 3 steps down 2 steps up until $12, we could bounce again to the trend line which will be closer to $17-$18 probably overlapping my expected $15 bounce rally, eventually the compression will push us towards the end of the year to sub $12 then the blowout happens, but this is JMHO, for now, I'm mostly a hold with selective long picks. But overall, looking at anything beyond intraday, my intermediate to longer-term bias is surely bearish. Dailies remain bullish on many charts, as of today intradays do too, but this is our last Bitcoin, stock market, etc leg up, we may have ups and downs on the way up but on a monthly to quarterly chart basis, we have one more leg up before the mid to late-year fall that will shake even the dead.
TVC:VIX
by candlestickninja
A walk the VIX Memory Lane may be most beneficial to any trader!A walk the VIX Memory Lane may be most beneficial to any trader because like clockwork, news scrambles to match up post-haste what happens in the market, but you dont' have to wait for that. Every major market correction that led to a VIX Spike and in turn high UVXY/UVIX many times over 1000% within 1-2 months has been after a fleeting drop below 12... Not there yet, expect it between the end of Q3 2024 and Q1 2025
TVC:VIXShort
by candlestickninja
Vix Gaps up 18% with Israel/Iran Conflict The Markets are moving money into buying Puts and this signals Fear. This is what war does I suppose and is the logical scenario that we would anticipate. Put Options are being bought as market participants anticpate lower prices on the Indices overall in the Short term at least here. We gapped up to a Daily level on the Vix where we consequently observed a decrease. The Size of the gap coupled with the Daily level and the not-too-far off Weekly level provided a strong place to reverse to fill the gap. The market is up 3% on the day after being up much more. Since the beginning of the Israel/Iran Conflict (Monday April 15th) the Vix is up 9% . As we move further into Q2, I'm anticpating a continued pullback in the broader stock market or even range. Vix may go sideways or range
TVC:VIXLong
by ShrewdCatfx
This bull run is not necessarily overThe VIX shows clearly defined structures during specific episodes of the market since early 2020. The enormous VIX spike that accompanied the covid crash was followed by a high VIX regime that nevertheless showed a continuous down trend of lower highs. During the 2022/early '23 bear market VIX was perpetually trading above 20 until the structure droppped below that in April with notable peaks in August and October. No certainties but if the current spike ends up being a short term peak as it did in October of last year the low VIX structure is in tact and may well see the market pick up where it left off.
TVC:VIXLong
by MostImportantThing
VIX regression and Keltner channelVIX volatility index shown with the S&P, with the VIX divided by the 3 month VIX, Keltner bands, and a regression channel drawn from the March 2022 high of the VIX. For those that aren’t familiar, the VIX is an expectation of volatility based on S&P options. It can be used to forecast a change in price that can go in either direction. The range that the VIX moves changes over time, so we are using two methods to determine when its movement is outside of its current normal range. The regression channel gives us a fixed range from the last major change in trend for the VIX. The Keltner bands calculate the distance between price and a moving average. When the upper band exceeds the channel we are close to a change in trend for the S&P. When the upper band peaks and rolls over we confirm that the S&P trend has reversed. The VIX/VIX3M gives insight into how investors feel about the current state of the market versus the future. For the past 2-3 years a move close to 1 or 0.8 indicates that we are close to a change in direction. The upper band has pieced the channel, suggesting that we are near the end of the current downtrend. TVC:VIX SP:SPX
TVC:VIX
by Ben_1148x2
Ensure that your long/short VIX Strats account for manipulation!Ensure that your long/short VIX Strats account for manipulation!-- Potential for breaking the $20 mark exists, but belief is in Biden administration's efforts to keep rates low. Speculation suggests the administration might reserve rate-lowering discussions for Q3-Q4 as a fear index suppression tactic. Anticipation of a VIX test around 9-11 PPS before the next major correction, likely towards the end of 2024 or early 2025. Expected suppression under 20 PPS initially, followed by a decline within the 16-13 falling trend line range. Foreseen final breakout anticipated during the election period.
TVC:VIX
by candlestickninja
4
VIX will be faking people out as it falls back to Sub $18VIX will be faking people out as it falls back to Sub $18 - I am very long volatility on the longer term timeframes and mostly at the end of the year, but I believe with Biden forgiving more loans than most, combined with the Demos need to keep "Fear" aka the VIX/Volatility Suppressed preferably under $20, I expect suppression manipluative tactics on ++$18 Rises until Q4. This is for info and educational purposes only, my bias is speculative so form your own and cross check mine and others before making "only an informed" decision!
TVC:VIXShort
by candlestickninja