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VIX trade ideas

VIX Trajectory through Q4: Once sub $12 is tested, it's on! am not bullish on the market. I am mostly holding selectively bullish until we get a sub $12 dip in the VIX. That's when I go long on UVXY, UVIX, URA, possibly GLD, cash, and short SQQQ and other stocks. If you look at the 1-month to 6-month history of the VIX back to as far as it goes, like the 1999/2002 tech bubble bursting, 2007/2008 RE Crisis turned Great Recession, and the 2019/2020 mini recession I call it with COVID, all of these, and probably further back if the VIX even was calculated, had 12-13 taps many times but only rose vertically after a sub 12 ($9.50-$11.50 test(s)). Team Biden will continue forgiving student loans, dumping every dollar from his creative rat hole into the markets to loosen the money supply and stimulate markets, even giving loan forgiveness (forgiving a debt of say $200k is the same as injecting the money into the market). If you search Reddit for student loan forgiveness relating to PSLF even after Republicans blocked this action, there's nothing but $100k-$500k+ student loans being 100% forgiven left and right for the last month. What happens with this? Well, it's a tricky way for Biden to try to capture more constituents, destroy our country as he has been in bed with China who owns most of our stuff indirectly, whether it's real estate, our bonds, whatever. Even disregarding my conspiracy theory on this, it's obvious that the Fed didn't lower rates yet as that's their Q3 to Q4 tool they will use last minute to give the markets one more push for Rhetoric/Election sake, it's disgusting. The VIX will continue testing the falling trend line which is around $19-$19.50 until the end of the year. We most likely (as history doesn't repeat but it sure AF rhymes) dip below $12 for a fleeting time, maybe only a few days, few weeks, or a month, but it won't be long. Once we dip to 11.59 on the VIX I'll begin scaling into ladder options across 1, 2, 3, 4, and monthly expirations long UVIX/UVXY. That's my plan, theories, assumptions, etc. I think we agree, but I'm also tactical. As I mentioned the day before yesterday when the VIX was at $19.50, yesterday, and right now, I called the VIX to drop back to $12-$17 which it did, we now should go to $15, then bounce back to $17 and continue doing 3 steps down 2 steps up until $12, we could bounce again to the trend line which will be closer to $17-$18 probably overlapping my expected $15 bounce rally, eventually the compression will push us towards the end of the year to sub $12 then the blowout happens, but this is JMHO, for now, I'm mostly a hold with selective long picks. But overall, looking at anything beyond intraday, my intermediate to longer-term bias is surely bearish. Dailies remain bullish on many charts, as of today intradays do too, but this is our last Bitcoin, stock market, etc leg up, we may have ups and downs on the way up but on a monthly to quarterly chart basis, we have one more leg up before the mid to late-year fall that will shake even the dead.
TVC:VIX
by candlestickninja
A walk the VIX Memory Lane may be most beneficial to any trader!A walk the VIX Memory Lane may be most beneficial to any trader because like clockwork, news scrambles to match up post-haste what happens in the market, but you dont' have to wait for that. Every major market correction that led to a VIX Spike and in turn high UVXY/UVIX many times over 1000% within 1-2 months has been after a fleeting drop below 12... Not there yet, expect it between the end of Q3 2024 and Q1 2025
TVC:VIXShort
by candlestickninja
Vix Gaps up 18% with Israel/Iran Conflict The Markets are moving money into buying Puts and this signals Fear. This is what war does I suppose and is the logical scenario that we would anticipate. Put Options are being bought as market participants anticpate lower prices on the Indices overall in the Short term at least here. We gapped up to a Daily level on the Vix where we consequently observed a decrease. The Size of the gap coupled with the Daily level and the not-too-far off Weekly level provided a strong place to reverse to fill the gap. The market is up 3% on the day after being up much more. Since the beginning of the Israel/Iran Conflict (Monday April 15th) the Vix is up 9% . As we move further into Q2, I'm anticpating a continued pullback in the broader stock market or even range. Vix may go sideways or range
TVC:VIXLong
by ShrewdCatfx
This bull run is not necessarily overThe VIX shows clearly defined structures during specific episodes of the market since early 2020. The enormous VIX spike that accompanied the covid crash was followed by a high VIX regime that nevertheless showed a continuous down trend of lower highs. During the 2022/early '23 bear market VIX was perpetually trading above 20 until the structure droppped below that in April with notable peaks in August and October. No certainties but if the current spike ends up being a short term peak as it did in October of last year the low VIX structure is in tact and may well see the market pick up where it left off.
TVC:VIXLong
by MostImportantThing
VIX regression and Keltner channelVIX volatility index shown with the S&P, with the VIX divided by the 3 month VIX, Keltner bands, and a regression channel drawn from the March 2022 high of the VIX. For those that aren’t familiar, the VIX is an expectation of volatility based on S&P options. It can be used to forecast a change in price that can go in either direction. The range that the VIX moves changes over time, so we are using two methods to determine when its movement is outside of its current normal range. The regression channel gives us a fixed range from the last major change in trend for the VIX. The Keltner bands calculate the distance between price and a moving average. When the upper band exceeds the channel we are close to a change in trend for the S&P. When the upper band peaks and rolls over we confirm that the S&P trend has reversed. The VIX/VIX3M gives insight into how investors feel about the current state of the market versus the future. For the past 2-3 years a move close to 1 or 0.8 indicates that we are close to a change in direction. The upper band has pieced the channel, suggesting that we are near the end of the current downtrend. TVC:VIX SP:SPX
TVC:VIX
by Ben_1148x2
Ensure that your long/short VIX Strats account for manipulation!Ensure that your long/short VIX Strats account for manipulation!-- Potential for breaking the $20 mark exists, but belief is in Biden administration's efforts to keep rates low. Speculation suggests the administration might reserve rate-lowering discussions for Q3-Q4 as a fear index suppression tactic. Anticipation of a VIX test around 9-11 PPS before the next major correction, likely towards the end of 2024 or early 2025. Expected suppression under 20 PPS initially, followed by a decline within the 16-13 falling trend line range. Foreseen final breakout anticipated during the election period.
TVC:VIX
by candlestickninja
4
VIX will be faking people out as it falls back to Sub $18VIX will be faking people out as it falls back to Sub $18 - I am very long volatility on the longer term timeframes and mostly at the end of the year, but I believe with Biden forgiving more loans than most, combined with the Demos need to keep "Fear" aka the VIX/Volatility Suppressed preferably under $20, I expect suppression manipluative tactics on ++$18 Rises until Q4. This is for info and educational purposes only, my bias is speculative so form your own and cross check mine and others before making "only an informed" decision!
TVC:VIXShort
by candlestickninja
VIX: An AnalysisAs we look at the VIX we note the historical impact the level 20 has had in the past. The last two times the VIX peaked above 20 were October 3rd 2023 and 30th 2023 which were the two bottoms of the SPY in the last 6 months. Using VIX and noting the significance of action above 20 is very important to understanding the psychology of the market. Use 20 as a key level to either hold above for a long term pullback for the SPY or just a spike on the VIX and a bottom out on SPY
TVC:VIX
by MindOverMarket
VIX Trading StrategyWhen the VIX is high, it typically indicates that investors are anticipating increased market volatility and potential downside risk. While this might seem counterintuitive, it can present opportunities for savvy investors. A high VIX often accompanies market sell-offs, which can lead to lower stock prices. For investors with a long-term perspective, high volatility can create attractive entry points to purchase quality stocks at discounted prices. Additionally, elevated volatility can offer opportunities for traders to profit from short-term price swings through strategies such as options trading or swing trading. However, it's important to conduct thorough research and analysis before investing during periods of high volatility, as market downturns can be unpredictable, and risk management is crucial. Overall, when the VIX is high, it can signal potential buying opportunities for investors who are prepared to weather short-term fluctuations in pursuit of long-term gains. TVC:VIX
TVC:VIXEducation
by MindOverMarket
VIX Volatility approaching a peak. Bottom sign for stocks?Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high: It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since has been around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, completing at least a +80.56% rise from the Lower Low. This zone currently falls between 20.05 (Fib 0.786) and 21.30 (+80.56%). That is the level we expect for VIX to peak, form a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down and a Higher High on the short-term Bullish Megaphone and then start a 2-3 month decline (Bearish Leg). The previous two Bearish Legs have been fairly symmetrical (-61.52% to -63.56%) so technically we are looking at a 9.00 minimum Lower Low (-61.52%). Our Target is however slightly higher at 10.10, in case each Lower Low is formed on a decreasing rate. Once VIX peaks and gets rejected downwards again, we will have a legitimate sign that the stock market volatility will start to ease and a bottom will be formed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIXShort
by TradingShot
4
VIX, no potential to break out?the closer Weekly BB to resistance, the better odds for VIX break out. Whilst everything is possible, I don't think it has the power or potential to break out. TLT feels like bottoming somewhere this summer? depends on the inflation metrics. But FED itself believes inflation is coming down. Often these one-time events are bought by the smart money. Depends if the conflict (mid east) escalates to something more? Maybe there's a broad market risk, outside the quality.
TVC:VIX
by citsvar