VIX Aug 12 2024VIX call inflows were huge today! Support held.
There is also a bullish reversal doji candle on the close.
Watch for the strong reversal to come next
VIX trade ideas
VIX going to break up??Looks like we could see some bearishness for the stockmarkets. The Vix is now at the 0.382 fib. Lets see what will happen to the markets from here.
"The Setup" VIX Retracement To 20Panic on Monday. yet by Friday,
all seemed well again in the US stock market
That was the psychology,
followed by price, and everyone slept better on the weekend.
Yet a closer look,.. shows that the Fear Gauge known as the VIX
had spiked to Pandemic Covid Level of 65 on Monday 8/5
and then spent the rest of the week retracing back to the breakout point of 20.
The major demarcation line between Fear and Greed.
If you are paying even closer attention, you can see from the chart shown here
that the KST Momentum Indicator, has crossed sharply into a Fear Buy Signal.
That is significant.
So before you get harshly awakened on a Monday again,
try to keep things in perspective.
For the wolfs have left the barn,
and on a cloud free night,... ... they can see for miles and miles.
VIX Close 20.36
8/9/24
THE_UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
VIX: Lower High to complete Equity CorrectionYes. Volatility spiked HUGELY! Check this out. I bet we have one more spike, but not as high, while Equities bottom, FOR NOW. Vix is interesting, because it goes crazy on the middle of the down moves in equities, but when they eventually bottom, as traders realize everything is fine, it doesn't go as high, hence my Primary ((C)) label off high. Maybe, Monday week after next, Aug 19. Meaning, "Rally Friday" might have been a great time to buy some Vixy, Uvxy, or UVIX, OR SQQQ if you can hold for 10 days...Could be double money.
The signal to sell will be a spike in MACD, as shown in the picture below. Price goes not as high on MORE strength...that is hidden bearish divergence, and it should sell off quick, as soon as that oscillator surpasses its last high, assuming Vix price stays in the 35-45 region and not higher than 65.
I will be targeting about 38. It could push to 40, but 35 is average in high volatility, 15 under low volatility.
Why markets could crash in 2023-2024In my view VIX CBOE index will test 5,8-6 area in next 2/3 months then a big bullish move could start and break monthly falling wedge my target is around 158/160
#VIX fear index and what it means with all its dates#VIX 1M chart;
The VIX (Volatility Index) is an indicator that measures the expected volatility of the market and is often referred to as the " fear index ".
In short, low values indicate a calm market, while high values indicate a tense market with higher stress levels.
By the way, this chart is mainly used by those who trade in the options market.
So what's it going to do for us? Let's see.
The VIX is usually inversely correlated with the S&P 500 index. In other words, it is negatively correlated.
When is the VIX chart triggered?
* Financial crises and economic uncertainty.
* Major corporate bankruptcies or scandals.
* Geopolitical tensions and war threats.
* Large-scale events such as natural disasters or pandemics.
* Major central bank decisions and interest rate changes.
The dates and events I have indicated in the chart;
* October 1998 : Russian debt crisis and the collapse of the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund.
* July 2002 : Dot-com bubble burst and accounting scandals (Enron, WorldCom).
* October 2008 : Global financial crisis, bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
* May 2010 : Flash Crash - a sudden and massive drop in the US stock market.
* August 2011 : US credit rating downgraded.
* August 2015 : China's economic slowdown and market volatility.
* February 2018 : Inflation fears in the US and a sudden drop in stocks.
* March 2020 : The shock of the COVID-19 pandemic on global markets.
* August 2024 : Bank of Japan's first rate hike in many years.
Here are the details of what two of the above terms mean and why they may have an impact on the markets;
What is a Flash Crash?
On May 6, 2010, an extraordinary event occurred on the US stock markets that lasted only minutes, but caused severe price fluctuations and sudden drops in market values. During this event, the Dow Jones Index fell by about 1000 points in a few minutes and recovered shortly afterwards. It became clear how unprepared the markets were for such an extraordinary event. This continued the domino effect.
Who is Lehman Brothers? Why would its bankruptcy have an impact on the markets?
Lehman Brothers was considered one of the most prestigious investment banks on Wall Street, with a huge influence around the world. Therefore, we can say that such a bankruptcy during the 2008 real estate crisis had the effect of throwing fire on the global markets.
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$VIX Golden Cross on the daily It happened, and now the 50 MA has also crossed above the 325 MA as well as the 200! I took profits on the rip up Black Monday, and rebought long this morning. TVC:VIX AMEX:UVIX AMEX:UVXY commons & calls. Still looking for much much higher!
My expectation of $vix In my previous #vix ideas i highlighted " something big is cooking" . Yes something big is happened in #nikkei , but i warn you now " something huge is cooking" . NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
VIX: Cyclical Pattern of market volatility.5 minor waves followed by a major correction. Seem to be consistent in the last 10 years.
VIX historical data analysisHistorical data over the past 10 years shows that VIX bottoming phase usually lasts no more than 168-193 trading days. After that, a significant spike occurs, which sends the VIX to the 35-80+ zone. Even if today was not the starting point of this upside move, there is not much time left. We have already passed 172 trading days. Take this into account before establishing new positions. The date range where the VIX peak should occur is mid-March to mid-May.
Warp PhoenixIt's been over a year since I stopped all trading and updating charts. Just wanted to log in the annals of history that the VIX spike finally arrived and still within the red rectangle I had drawn long before I had quit. Phoenix is still kicking. Is there any value knowing this? Probably not. Nothing can be gained by bears through such months/years of grind and then a warp speed VIX spike arriving out of nowhere, instantly driving put prices through the roof. It probably signals something bad to come in the real world. But, capitalizing on such chaos? I don't think so. Might as well keep holding those GICs and wait it out until the next bull. As much as I love the truth speaking bears, we lost long ago.
Update: VIXIts been a while but those who follow me know I posted extensively about the VIX months back and as we can see, the VIX is very much in the news lately due to its current historical spike.
It was not one of the more popular topics at the time I was talking about it but as you can see on this chart outlined here, that this is an extremely powerful resource and should be one of my most popular posts in my opinion.
The VIX was and still is highly accurate in regard to being an indicator of when to be risk on vs risk off. The levels I drew have been respected for the last few years perfectly and historically after we've seen sudden spikes, they were short lived and the index came back down to levels that were very friendly to bulls. Historically, the last time volatility was at this level, Covid Pandemic had just happened. Shortly after markets rallied 100% before finally entering a bear market TWO YEARS later.
In the coming weeks keep an eye on the VIX to see if it returns back below 15 basis points in that sweet Buy and Hold area that I have labeled on the chart.
VIX Spike to 'Covid' Crash Levels... What Happens NextThe last time the VIX spiked this high was during the March 2020 Covid 'Crash' which was followed by an epic Bull run after that, and proved to be one of the best buying opportunities.
With Japan's unwinding of their 'Carry Trade' and overall US stock market correction, the FED is likely to do an emergency rate cut this month.
And the US elections are coming up, which likely means QE to prop up the economy, as the the next liquidity cycle begins...
So this could be a great signal to flip back to Bullish in the crypto markets.
Fear and Greed is also down to 25, which is another good indicator of sentiment reverting to the mean and back toward Greed sooner than later.
I'm buying, and happy my limit buy orders from yesterdy for SOL at $115, $120, and $125 all filled today and already are in profit.
$VIX Enable Holy Sh*t ModeHere on the TVC:VIX we are making a very simple and very basic technical forecast based solely on the CCI.
We previously called a breakout on the TVC:VIX weekly chart shortly before our market pullback with excellent results.
Now we are examining the monthly chart for any clues to the next big breakout.
On the monthly chart CCI is pointed up on the TVC:VIX and slowly creeping toward a Major Breakout level.
Given the length of time it could take for this breakout to develop, it could be many months before it actually happens. But when we start to approach this level, Beware of what has happened previously.
Anytime the monthly TVC:VIX breaks out above zero we have had moves of between 50 and 100+ which has led to serious economic punishment, more notably in 2008 and 2020.
Highest level of fear after 2008 and CovidThis is insane.
We're in the highest level of fear after 2008 crisis and Covid pandemic.
Let's see what will happen.
Volmageddon $VIX Golden Cross on the daily confirmed TVC:VIX Golden Cross that I've been watching and waiting so long for, has finally happened! Volatility short squeeze, fear and panic in the markets! How high can we go? I'll only be looking for pullbacks to add to my TVC:VIX long positions. AMEX:UVXY AMEX:UVIX commons and calls swings, AMEX:SVIX puts swing. Woohoo!
Fear of US recession, vix is a optimal point for sellingI entered in a short position in VIX CFD to swing trade, because it has reached a level that normally goes down. We saw higher acceleration in VIX when we had the covid virus. Now We are seeing a fear of nothing....
Increased VIX Stress Forecasts Mid-Term Stock SlumpThe recent COT data indicates a sharp increase in stress levels in the VIX. This suggests that market participants are preparing for a rise in volatility, which is usually associated with falling stock prices. Looking at the COT history of the VIX, we can infer the stock market movements during similar stress level increases (green horizontal line): We observed similar phenomena in February 2013, June 2014, October 2016, June 2018, August 2021, and September 2023. We see that all these periods were associated with events that caused increased volatility. Notable mentions include the onset of the Ukraine crisis in the summer of 2014, the US elections in 2016, significant sell-offs in the second half of 2018, and the precursors to the open Ukraine war in the second half of 2021. As the price movements show us, these events did not mean the end of the world. However, it is notable that we are currently in a similar situation, particularly regarding the upcoming US elections. Based on this analysis, we must assume that significant, albeit temporary, price declines are to be expected at least in the medium term.
VIX waiting for the spike to top out This is the spike in volatility I have been anticipating for a while (you can never pinpoint exact event). Can easily see a 50+ print on VIX this week.
YOU MUST WAIT for the spike top before attempting to sell vol/buy risk assets but it should present a good opportunity.
Time for a VIX blowout?I've been accummulating my VIX puts at it's lows which have tested multiple times during this and last year, finding reaction at all time after consolidation.
You can see two potential paths based on previous reactions here.
The black trendline has been respected three times with the red one being tested 2/3x times as much.
You can also see the bullish divergence on the the daily most recently highlighted with a blue line on the RSI.
Stock markets are way overbought and I'm going long on VIX.
Omg markets are crashing--- it is just a Bear trap ... This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management
service.
It is just an educated guess
Remember, the weekend of 23 august.... to pull the trigger
VIX Multi-Year BreakoutI just shared some ideas for VX and I prefer VX over VIX, however VIX analysis has it's merits. We're seeing a similar chart as you'd expect, major breakout for VIX after a big downtrend since early 2022/late 2021. I'll be watching to see if this can sustain over a longer term period of 2-3 weeks at least.
To the upside, watching for failures at previous highs from 2023 and 2022.
VIX | Economic, Geopolitical, and Market DevelopmentsTVC:VIX
Key Points:
FOMC Decision:
Rate Hold: The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, indicating caution due to persistent inflation (Home) (Home).
Market Volatility:
VIX Surge : The VIX rose to 23.38, reflecting increased market fear and uncertainty driven by economic and geopolitical factors (Home).
Japan's Economic Challenges:
Policy Adjustments : The BOJ raised rates and ended yield curve control but maintained a relatively accommodative stance due to muted inflation.
GDP and Inflation : Japan's GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2024, and core inflation stood at 2.5% year-over-year.
Europe's Economic Landscape:
ECB Rates : The ECB's interest rate is at 3.75%, with slow growth expected amid ongoing inflationary pressures.
Geopolitical Tensions:
Iran-Israel Conflict : Escalating tensions impact global oil prices and market sentiment (Council on Foreign Relations).
Russia-Ukraine War : The conflict continues to pose significant geopolitical risks, affecting global markets and humanitarian conditions (S&P Global).
US-China Relations : Ongoing strategic competition and trade tensions shape global dynamics (EL PAÍS English).
Cybersecurity Threats : Increasing frequency and severity of cyberattacks threaten national security and financial stability (S&P Global).
Global Elections:
2024 Elections : Major elections in the US, UK, and EU contribute to geopolitical complexity, potentially reshaping policies and market responses (EY US).
Summary:
The global economic and geopolitical environment remains volatile. The FOMC's decision to hold rates reflects caution amid persistent inflation. Market volatility, indicated by the VIX surge, is driven by economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and mixed corporate earnings. Japan faces economic challenges despite policy adjustments, while Europe contends with slow growth and inflation. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and Russia-Ukraine war, alongside significant upcoming elections, add layers of complexity for investors and policymakers.
