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Market players tried to be optimistic about a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict but were unable to do so. The optimistic feeling waned during the day, with Wall Street closing in the red following a high opening.
According to Ukraine's negotiator Mikhail Podolyak, the latest round of peace talks has been paused and will resume on Tuesday. According to a Kremlin spokeswoman, "all of Russia's intentions in Ukraine will be carried out in full and within the time frames specified." Additionally, press reports indicated that Russia may suspend wheat, corn, rye, and barley exports, while Moscow and Belarus, according to the latter's Prime Minister, will cease paying for energy supply in US dollars.
The EU Commission announced the imposition of new sanctions on Russian billionaires and entities. On the other hand, the US informed its NATO partners that China is eager to aid Russia with military and economic assistance.
The dollar is strengthening versus the most of its major rivals, however the EUR/USD is slightly higher on the day, trading at around 1.0960. The GBP/USD pair is putting pressure on the 1.3000 level following a new multi-month low of 1.3008.
Commodities dipped down, with gold falling to $1,949.57 a troy ounce and remaining there for the remainder of the day. Crude oil prices fell, with WTI trading at approximately $101.40 per barrel.
Risk aversion and a decline in gold and oil prices harmed demand for commodity-linked currencies. The AUD/USD pair broke through the 0.7200 mark, while the USD/CAD pair is trading near 1.2820.
The USD strengthened against safe-haven currencies in response to rising US government bond yields. The 10-year Treasury note yield peaked at 2.145 percent and is now hovering around 2.13 percent. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading near 118.10, its highest level since January 2017.
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Ukraine-Russia talks reach a stalemate
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A very active day concluded with the American Dollar trading mixed across the foreign exchange market. USD gained ground against Euro rivals and the JPY but fell against commodity-linked currencies.
EUR/USD is below 1.1000, while GBP/USD is barely above 1.3100. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading near a daily high of 0.7363, while the USD/CAD currency pair is trading near 1.2750.
Russia and Ukraine's four-round peace negotiations ended abruptly and without an agreement on a ceasefire or humanitarian corridors. International sanctions against Russia continue to accumulate, but Moscow has shown no sign of relenting after fifteen days.
The European Central Bank published its statement on monetary policy. As expected, rates remained steady. On the other hand, Lagarde announced a change to their Asset Purchase Program (APP), which will now conclude in the third quarter of this year. April's APP will total 40 billion euros, May's will total 30 billion euros, and June's will total 20 billion euros.
President Christine Lagarde stated that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment for Europe and has created a new downward risk, reiterating their commitment to "do everything within our mandate to pursue price stability." The central bank cut its growth predictions downward.
The US announced its February Consumer Price Index, which came in at 7.9 percent year on year, unchanged from its 40-year high. The headline added to the pressure on Wall Street, which was already feeling the strain of geopolitical instability. US indices remain in the red heading into the close but have recovered more than half of their initial losses.
The US 10-year Treasury note yield reached 2.02 percent and is expected to settle around that level.
Gold ends the day unaltered, well below the $2,000 level. Crude oil prices have dipped, with WTI trading at roughly $106.20 per barrel. The decrease in oil prices was ascribed to Russian President Vladimir Putin's statements that Moscow would adhere to its energy promises.
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Market sentiment supports optimismToday's forex news: Market sentiment supports optimism
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The US dollar and commodity prices fell substantially on Wednesday on renewed optimism about resolving the Ukraine-Russia dispute. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that his country is prepared for a diplomatic solution and is willing to make certain concessions if the other party does as well.
President von der Leyen of the European Commission stated that the EU had purchased enough LNG to be self-sufficient in gas until the end of winter.
Crude oil prices fell sharply on widespread risk aversion and rumors that Iraq is prepared to raise output if OPEC demands it. The Oil Minister, Ihsan Abdul Jabbar Ismail, added that the country has approximately 6% spare capacity and produces 4.4 million barrels per day. However, it is important to note that the country is now producing less than its quoted output. WTI is trading at approximately $108.00 per barrel at the moment.
Gold is currently trading at $1,981 per troy ounce, down almost $90 per troy ounce.
The EUR/USD pair flirted near 1.1100 throughout the day, before settling at around 1.1070. GBP/USD edged up to 1.3160. The AUD/USD pair has recovered to approximately 0.7300, while the USD/CAD pair has dipped below 1.2826. Finally, the USD/JPY pair has returned to a level greater than 115.00.
The European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, and market participants anticipate another round of hawkish comments from President Christine Lagarde as EU inflation continues to approach record highs. Simultaneously, the United States will release its February inflation data. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 7.8% year on year, a multi-decade high that may force the US Federal Reserve to hike rates by more than 25bps.
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Concerns over Eastern Europe keep volatility high
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As earlier in the day, the market sentiment improved somewhat. Ukraine verified the establishment of the first humanitarian corridor, which facilitated the evacuation of Sumy and Mariupol residents. According to the UN, the overall number of refugees has surpassed two million.
The mood improved considerably after news agencies reported that Ukraine would withdraw its application for NATO membership in an apparent bow to Russia. Meanwhile, the Turkish government has set the next round of peace talks for next Thursday.
President Joe Biden of the United States and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom have declared sanctions against Russia in response to the country's recent invasion of Ukraine. The first declared the suspension of all crude oil imports from Moscow, including gas and electricity, "after consultation with partners." The embargo on Russian energy is retroactive and extends to all new purchases. As far as the market is concerned, this move has already been anticipated by participants, as it has been making rounds since Monday.
The UK government declared that it would phase out Russian oil and oil products imports by the end of 2022. The goal is to shift slowly enough to allow markets and businesses sufficient time to substitute Russian goods. Additionally, they indicated that their present dependency on Russian natural gas accounts for 4% of supplies and that they are investigating the situation.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has imposed a moratorium on the export of manufactured goods and raw materials from the Russian federation until December 31.
The EUR/USD pair reached a high of 1.0957 but then settled a few ticks above the 1.0900 level. GBP/USD ended the day battling to hang onto the 1.3100 level. Commodity-linked currencies fell against the dollar. The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.7270, while the USD/CAD pair is flirting with 1.2900.
Spot gold rose to $2,070.50 per troy ounce before plummeting to approximately $2,031. At the closing, crude oil prices were little altered, with a barrel of WTI changing hands at $123.60.
US indices recovered some ground on Tuesday, finishing with modest gains.
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Today's forex news: Dollar and Gold climb amid continued safety-
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Risk aversion was once again the primary market driver in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The attacks continued throughout the weekend, resulting in numerous civilian casualties and the closure of all safe passages. The third round of talks ended with "small advances," according to Kyiv representatives, but nothing that would alleviate financial market pressure.
The American Dollar and Gold both benefited significantly from the gloomy mood, appreciating sharply. The EUR/USD pair fell to a new multi-month low of 1.0805 and is currently trading near that level. GBP/USD has also fallen, trading just a few pips above a multi-month low of 1.3101.
Gold futures rose to $2,002.64, its highest level since August 2020, but settled at $1,986 per troy ounce. WTI reached a high of $130.50 per barrel before retreating to the $120 price zone where it is currently trading.
The CAD and AUD began the day in the green against the dollar but lost ground throughout the day, eventually settling in the red. AUD/USD is trading near 0.7320, while USD/CAD is trading near 1.2800.
Global indices dipped slightly. While European indices pared some of their intraday losses prior to the close, US indices reported significant losses, with the DJIA shedding almost 600 points.
The US is on track to impose a total ban on Russian energy imports, effectively detaching Russia from the EU. President Joe Biden anticipated the censure, which was approved by the US Congress. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that the EU intends to reduce its reliance on Russian gas by about 80% by 2022.
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Markets are optimistic, pushing high-yield assets higherToday's forex news: Markets are optimistic, pushing high-yield assets higher
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On Thursday, risk continued to take the lead amid Eastern Europe's ongoing war issue. While the Russian stock market remains closed, shares of European corporations with exposure to Russia have plummeted. Meanwhile, the government is on the verge of default due to international sanctions. However, Russia continued its aggression against Ukraine, and Russian President Vladimir Putin told French President Macron that the objectives of Russia's operation in Ukraine would be carried out regardless of the outcome.
Wall Street started the day with significant gains but shortly went red due to concerns about the war and an assertive Federal Reserve in the United States. Jerome Powell, the Fed's chairman, stated on his second day before Congress that policymakers are prepared to raise rates by more than 25 basis points in upcoming sessions, further dampening demand for high-yielding assets.
On the back of the news from Ukraine, the atmosphere improved, and markets rebounded, putting an end to the dollar's rally. Kyiv announced that it had achieved a preliminary deal with Russia to create safe corridors for civilian evacuations. A ceasefire would be observed where safe corridors are established under the terms of the agreement. Additionally, the third round of negotiations has been scheduled for next week.
Meanwhile, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that he would not rule out a future 50-basis-point rate hike, noting that there is plenty of room to raise interest rates this year.
The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1032, its lowest level since May 2020, as investors sought safety. The pair is hovering around 1.1060 as we approach the daily close. GBP/USD is trading near the 1.3350 level.
The Australian dollar was one of the best performers, with AUD/USD hitting a new 2022 high of 0.7347 and maintaining close to that level ahead of the Asian start. The USD/CAD pair increased somewhat and finished at approximately 1.2675, as crude oil prices finally eased a little.
Gold prices increased modestly. Spot gold is trading about $1,933.00 per troy ounce, remaining within Wednesday's range. WTI reached a peak of $116.51 per barrel but is currently trading around $108.00.
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Are markets back to optimism?Today's forex news: Are markets back to optimism?
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By Wednesday's close, the stock market had shaken off worries. It ended up being a mixed bag, as demand for the dollar decreased. There was a flurry of action today, as inflation concerns briefly resurfaced.
According to the preliminary estimate of the EU's February CPI, the rate rose to a record 5.8% YoY. Interest rate forward bets on an ECB rate hike before the end of the year, despite officials stressing that Eastern European developments have increased uncertainty to new, unknown levels.
US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell testified on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell suggested in March at a 25 basis point rate hike, which aided Wall Street's recovery, since market investors were betting on a 50 basis point rate hike. He also mentioned the increased uncertainty brought about by war, but reiterated that the central bank would do whatever it took to ensure price stability, including shrinking its balance sheet.
The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from a multi-month bottom of 1.1058 and is currently trading near 1.1130 ahead of the Asian session. GBP/USD ended the day with gains near 1.3380, having fallen to 1.3270 earlier in the day.
The Bank of Canada increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.50 percent on Wednesday, as expected, adding that it expected to need to hike rates further. The central bank indicated that it would continue with the reinvestment phase of its balance sheet, retaining roughly the same level of overall holdings of Canadian government bonds.
The CAD strengthened versus the dollar, with the pair presently trading near 1.2650. The AUD/USD strengthened to 0.7300, aided by strong Australian fourth-quarter GDP figures.
Crude oil prices skyrocketed during the Eastern Europe conflict. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 400k barrels per day (BPD) in April, however the statement fell short of bringing down oil prices. West Texas Intermediate is currently trading at roughly $110.80 per barrel.
Spot gold fell from recent highs but maintained weekly gains. At the moment, it is trading at $1,925 per troy ounce.
Russian aggression against Ukraine continues, despite the fact that the second round of talks will commence early on Thursday. At that point, a truce would be proposed. These reports bolstered the market's optimism in the face of growing global tensions.
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Today's Forex News: Russia’s attack fuels safe-haven assets, comToday's Forex News: Russia’s attack fuels safe-haven assets, commodities
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Eastern Europe's economic development continues to set the pace for financial markets. Mid-European morning, safe-haven assets rose as Russia intensified its airstrikes on Ukraine, with President Vladimir Putin declaring that the invasion would continue until he achieved his goal.
Generally, neutral countries join worldwide attempts to destabilize Russia. Switzerland and Finland, among others, are either shipping armour to Ukraine or participating in Moscow's financial blockade.
Meanwhile, the next round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will begin on Wednesday. Russia allegedly demanded during Monday's first round of negotiations that Ukraine agree to documenting its off-block status at the parliamentary level and organizing a vote on the subject. Additionally, Moscow wishes for Kyiv to recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics and to abandon its demand for the return of Crimea to Ukraine. On the other hand, Ukraine has urged a halt to hostilities and the removal of Russian soldiers from its territory.
By day's end, Putin had issued a directive prohibiting foreign cash shipments from Russia in excess of $10,000 commencing March 2.
The American Dollar is up against the majority of its key competitors, most notably European currencies. The EUR/USD pair has fallen to its lowest level since June 2020 and is presently trading near 1.1130, while the GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3320.
The AUD/USD pair flirted with 0.7300 before reversing course and closing barely altered at about 0.7250. The USD/CAD pair pushed higher against a backdrop of dropping equities and a backdrop of record crude oil prices, eventually finishing at approximately 1.2735.
The price of black gold rose to its highest level in seven years amid fears that supply may be impacted by the Russian war. WTI rose as high as $106.76 a barrel before reversing course to trade at $103.60.
Gold prices profited from the risk-averse climate and climbed beyond $1,940 per troy ounce, maintaining the majority of their gains through the US close.
Asian markets went up, but European and US indices sank. Government bond demand increased, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note falling below 1.70 percent.
One of the more intriguing trends is that money markets are reducing bets on aggressive rate hikes in response to renewed uncertainty on the battlefield.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak before the House Financial Services Committee on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.
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Despite peace talks, Russia escalates warToday's forex news: Despite peace talks, Russia escalates war
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Market sentiment remained largely risk-related. An escalating war between Russia and Ukraine prompted safe-haven assets to gap higher at the weekly opening. The sentiment temporarily improved during the early session in the US. However, no decisions were reached. There will be a new round of negotiations in a few days, but hostilities have resumed with Moscow bombarding buildings near Kyiv.
Russia ignores sanctions and financial chaos: Russia imposes a halt to foreigners' security payments. Local stock markets will be closed on Tuesday, while the RUB plummeted to record lows against the dollar.
Western countries are also intensifying their preparations for war in the Baltic. Germany and Croatia, among other countries, announced defensive preparations.
EUR/USD approached the yearly lows before bouncing back, trading around 1.1220 now. The GBP/USD pair posted a modest intraday advance and settled around 1.3400. The commodities-linked currencies performed well against the greenback, with AUD/USD trading around 0.7250 and USD/CAD at 1.2690. Switzerland's franc and Japan's yen strengthened firmly against the dollar.
The spot price of gold hovers around $1,900 a troy ounce while the WTI barrel trades around $935.30, both higher than Friday's close.
Government bond demand pushed yields lower. Meanwhile, most global indexes traded in the red.
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Eastern European tensionsEUR/USD⬆️
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Short-lived optimism ruled financial markets during London trading hours, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he believes there would not be war nor a wider escalation. However, European and American authorities have anticipated sanctions on Russia. The positive sentiment did not last long, and risk aversion dominated the US session.
The UK was the first to take action, announcing the country would sanction five Russian banks and three individuals, adding that this is just the first tranche of what the government is prepared to do. Also, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, tweeted that “the Union remains united in its support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity” and that “a first package of sanctions will be formally tabled today.”
US President Joe Biden gave a press conference on the matter. Among other things, he said: “We have no intention of fighting Russia,” adding that US forces in Europe will help Baltic allies, but "these are totally defensive moves on our part." He says the U.S. and allies "will defend every inch of NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO."
Soft words from Biden helped Wall Street to trim part of its intraday gains, pushing the greenback lower at the end of the day.
The EUR/USD pair remained lifeless around 1.1350, while the GBP/USD pair saw a little more action but ended the day around 1.3560. The USD/CAD retreated sharply ahead of the close and settled around 1.2740, while AUD/USD advanced for a second consecutive day and settled around 07220.
Safe-havens CHF and JPY edged lower against their American rival, while Gold Prices consolidated gains, with spot now trading around $1,900 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices edged lower, with WTI settled at $91.60 a barrel.
Markit flash PMIs for the EU, and the US were generally encouraging, indicating economic expansion in February as the world seems ready to put an end to the global health crisis.
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Russia terminates diplomatic discussions , Dollar Rises
Today's forex news: Russia terminates diplomatic discussions, boosting the dollar.
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Risk aversion dominated financial markets, owing to growing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. The greenback gained strength against high-yielding counterparts but lost ground against safe-haven counterparts.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. The international community views this action as the first step toward an invasion, effectively ending negotiations with Western nations.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel stated that the EU is prepared to react strongly if Russia acknowledges Donbas independence, which Putin did early.
Markit released its preliminary estimates for the EU's February PMIs. The services sector saw a strong recovery, with the German index rising to 56.6 and the EU index reaching 55.8. Both economies' manufacturing PMIs came in lower than predicted but far above the 50-point threshold separating recession from economic expansion.
EUR/USD is reaching 1.1300, while GBP/USD is battling to stay above 1.3600. Commodity-linked currencies have depreciated against the dollar. AUD/USD is around 0.7190, while USD/CAD is 1.2760. despite gold trading above $1,903 per troy ounce on the desire for safety and crude oil prices surging on disruption fears, with WTI presently trading at $92.75 per barrel.
While US markets were closed in observance of President Day, stock futures fell sharply on Russia/Ukraine news. European and Asian futures are also lower, implying a risk-off day on Tuesday.
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All eyes are on Federal Reserve officials and Russian diplomacyToday’s Forex News: All eyes are on Federal Reserve officials and Russian diplomacy.
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The market sentiment has been rattled by the bad developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Latest headlines from eastern Ukraine that Russia will extend military drills in Belarus that were due to end on Sunday, the Belarusian defense ministry announced, has added fuel to the fire.
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the Ukrainian military for the escalation of hostilities in the Donbas during a phone chat with French President Emmanuel Macron, according to the BBC.
While additional US warnings about an impending Russian invasion continued to weigh on risk sentiment on Friday night, developments are likely to be a significant mover of markets this week.
The economic calendar is packed with events for the coming week. We'll hear from a chorus of Fed officials, as well as the PCE report and Markit PMIs. Fed policymakers will be busy this week attempting to lead the market ahead of the March FOMC meeting and assessing evidence of prolonged data strength in Q1, notably in the area of inflation. The majority of attention will be on Governor Waller, who will discuss the US economic outlook on 24 February.
EUR/USD decreased from 1.1377 to 1.1315.
The previous support level of 1.1350 has become fresh resistance in EUR/USD. The price is declining, and the target is 1.1250.
On the GBP/USD pair, significant bids have been noted near 1.3580.
The AUD/USD currency pair is trading lower, attempting to find support at 0.7150.
USD/CAD has a bullish bias near 1.2750.
XAU/USD traded in a range of $1,886.66 to $1,902.54.
Although anxieties among energy bulls may have played a role in the black gold's first weekly drop in several weeks, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Russia and Ukraine, combined with OPEC+ supply concerns, has kept WTI purchasers hopeful. WTI crude oil prices are trading at $91.45, up 1.30 percent intraday.
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Safe-haven assets in demand. Not DollarToday's Forex News: Safe-haven assets in demand, but not the dollar
Ukraine's crisis with Russia continued to dominate headlines and supported demand for safe-haven assets, even as speculative interest shifted away from the dollar. After both countries blamed one other for shelling that occurred early Thursday in the Donbass territory, major pairs stayed flat at familiar levels.
The situation deteriorated throughout the day, culminating in the breakdown of diplomatic discussions. Not only do Western nations fear Russia is not retiring, but is preparing for an invasion. Russia expelled US diplomats from their embassy and accused Washington of neglecting its security requests, while US President Joe Biden accused Moscow of fabricating drama in order to justify an invasion.
Additionally, the US Secretary of Defense stated that Russian forces are advancing toward the Ukrainian border. US Ambassador to the UN noted the"t: "the evidence on the ground is that Russia is moving toward an imminent invasion. This is a crucial moment."
Gold benefited the most from the risk-averse atmosphere, trading at over $1,900.00 per troy ounce, its best level since June 2021. The GBP/USD pair extended gains over the 1.3600 level, however the EUR/USD pair has remained stalled around 1.1350.
The CHF and JPY both hit new weekly highs against their American counterparts on the back of safe-haven buying, while commodity-linked currencies held close to their starting levels.
Crude oil prices fell somewhat, pressured down by the bearish tone in equities, and WTI is currently trading at roughly $91.40 a barrel.
Asian and European equities ended mixed, while US indexes remained negative headed into the close. Government bond yields, on the other hand, decreased slightly as demand for bonds surged.
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The US dollar on Wednesday slipped lower despite positive US statistics and continued worry over Russian-Ukrainian border tensions. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve released the minutes from its most recent FOMC meeting, which indicated that policymakers are willing to raise rates but made no mention of a 50 basis point increase in March.
US Retail Sales increased by 3.8 percent in January, far more than predicted, while Industrial Production increased by 1.4 percent, compared to the 0.4 percent forecast.
Regarding geopolitical concerns, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service chief recently reported that Russia was relocating approximately ten fighting groups to the area near Ukraine, where further formations are already awaiting deployment.
European indices ended the day in the red, albeit with minor losses. Wall Street spent most of the day in the red but has since recovered and is currently trading near its opening levels following the FOMC Minutes.
Government bond yields stayed near the top of their weekly range, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield hanging near 2.05 percent.
EUR/USD is trading near 1.1390, while GBP/USD is flirting with 1.3600, despite the dollar's broad weakening. The AUD/USD pair is also up, trading near 0.7200, while the USD/CAD pair is lower, hanging about 1.2670. Oil prices are weighing on the CAD, as the black gold has fallen dramatically from its daily high and is currently trading at roughly $92.50 a barrel.
Iran's senior nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, stated that after weeks of intensive talks, the JCPOA's members, including the US and Iran, are closer than ever to reaching an agreement. Nevertheless, he continued, "nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed upon."
Safe-haven currencies advanced against the dollar, with the USD/CHF rate falling to 0.9210.
Gold has pushed up and is currently trading about $1870 per troy ounce.
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Today's forex news: Fear led to an increase in safe-haven assetsToday's forex news: Fear led to an increase in safe-haven assets
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On Monday, global markets were dominated by tensions between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in strong safe-haven demand. The spark was a comment by US President Joe Biden, who told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday that if Russia took more steps toward invasion, the US would respond "swiftly and firmly."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told President Vladimir Putin early Monday that the US had made solid ideas to reduce military risks and that he could see a way forward with discussions, though he noted that the EU and NATO responses had not been adequate. Fears have subsided to some extent, but risk-aversion persists.
As the day draws to a close, there are no signs of progress in diplomatic discussions; on the contrary, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that he believes Russia would invade Ukraine on Wednesday, February 16, which he has declared a national holiday, the Day of Unity.
In a risk-averse environment, the US dollar and gold benefited the most, with the former boosted by comments from US St Louis Fed President James Bullard, who reiterated his call for 100 basis points in interest rate hikes by July 1, citing the last four inflation reports that show broadening inflationary pressures.
With little on the horizon until next Wednesday, when the US releases Retail Sales and the FOMC Meeting Minutes, a lack of a macroeconomic calendar intensified risk-related activity.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading below 1.1300, while the GBP/USD pair is hovering around 1.3520. In the face of rising gold and oil prices, commodity-linked currencies are barely changed against the dollar.
Global indices plummeted, with Wall Street's slide speeding up as the day drew to a close. Bond yields have fallen, with the 10-year Treasury note now yielding roughly 1.96 percent.
Gold rose to a new 2022 high of $1,872.85 per troy ounce, and is currently trading at that level. Crude oil prices have also risen, with WTI currently trading at $95.25 per barrel.
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The Ukraine crisis has had an impact on global marketsoday’s Forex news: The Ukraine crisis has had an impact on global markets
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There has been an impact on global markets caused by the Ukraine crisis. Russia has more than 100,000 troops massed near Ukraine and the US has repeatedly said an invasion is imminent. However, Moscow denies any such plans and has accused the West of “hysteria” and markets are of the mind that diplomacy will prevail.
Comments from US President Joe Biden raised concerns of an imminent military attack by Russia over Ukraine. Not only the US but the UK and Eurozone leaders also flashed worrisome signals for the much-debated geopolitical event.
It’s worth noting, however, that Russian President Vladimir Putin termed any such claims as ‘provocative speculation’, per AFP News. However, market players seemed to not believe in Putin’s comments, Standoff with Russia over Ukraine heads into most tense week yet. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields lick their wounds around 1.95%, after shedding over 11 basis points (bps) the previous day. Further, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time.
In UK, uncertainty around the January Consumer Price Index release is high, in part because of the CPI basket re-weighting, but also due to significant surprises in other countries January CPI prints. In the UK, fuel prices likely fell slightly while food prices continued to accelerate, leaving inflation little changed from Dec. But look for inflation to rise from here, peaking above 7% in April. The data will be out on Wednesday 16 February.
In other events for the week, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be released and traders will be on the lookout for discussions regarding near-term policy plans. market will be paying particular attention to plans for balance sheet normalization steps, following the release of the normalization "principles" in Jan. The minutes might seem stale, however, given the recent strength in macro data. The focus will then turn to US Retail Sales where an improvement on December's sharp decline could be supportive to the US dollar.
the UK's labour force will be put under the spotlight as well this week in the labour market report. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be closely watching labour market tightness. Market expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, with some softening in wage growth. Flash Jan PAYE data will provide further insights on Omicron-period hiring; firms hired at their fastest pace on record in Dec.
The pound's strength against the dollar of late has been down to the expectations of the Bank of England. There are as many as another 150 bps in increases are priced in for the remainder of the year by the Bank of England compared to nearly 170 bps by the US Federal Reserve. However, there are economic headwinds that could weigh on the pound down to surging inflation.
GBP/USD remains At 1.3566 ,which is 0.14% higher in the open this week as markets find solace in the absence of any weekend escalation with regards to Russia and the US warning that an invasion of Ukraine could begin any day. The announcements roiled markets on Friday and GBP/USD fell almost 70 pips to a low of 1.3545.
The major currency pair dropped the most in two weeks the previous day while EUR/USD remained on the back foot during the early Asian session on Monday, despite recent inaction around 1.1340-45.
Alternatively, a clear upside past 1.1485 isn’t a green card to the EUR/USD bulls as another resistance zone comprising October 2021 lows near 1.1530 will challenge the pair’s upside momentum.
USD/CAD consolidates recent gains inside a bearish channel formation, stepping back from the resistance line to 1.2730 during Monday’s Asian session.
AUD/USD under pressure due to US warnings of a Russian invasion.AUD/USD ended lower by 0.50% as well to 0.7130, with its bullish campaign potentially coming to a swift end at this juncture.
NZD/USD begins the week on a softer footing near 0.6645, fading the corrective pullback from intraday low following a two-day decline.
XAU/USD grinds below $1,873 hurdle on inflation, geopolitical fears
WTI crude oil prices remain firmer around $93.00, up 0.85% intraday after refreshing the multi-day peak during Monday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold rose to the fresh high since September 2021 while flashing a $93.17 level before a few minutes.
It’s worth noting that the recent indecision over the Fed’s rate hike and cautious optimism also underpins oil prices. Additionally, the OPEC+ members’ inability to match the production hike targets amid geopolitical concerns also favors the oil buyers.
Looking forward, WTI crude oil prices are likely depending upon heading concerning Russia invasion and Fed-rate-hike with weekly inventories and FOMC minutes will be the key data/events to watch for intermediate moves.
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Strong optimism weighs on the dollar
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Falling government bond yields pulled down the American dollar, which closed the day mixed across the board.
The 10-year Treasury note yield is currently around 1.93 percent, down from its weekly high of 1.97 percent.
The GBP/USD pair trades at around 1.3525 daily, while the EUR/USD pivots approximately 1.1430. The best performances were commodity-linked currencies, with the AUD/USD trading in the 0.7180 price range and the USD/CAD falling to 1.2670. Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, addressed the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, emphasizing the significance of supply-chain difficulties in increased inflation. He expressed confidence that the problems would be resolved soon, even though the present truckers' disagreement could exacerbate the situation.
Gold reached a high of $1,835.81 per troy ounce and stayed there for the rest of the day. Crude oil prices were barely altered after the day, with WTI trading at $89.40 a barrel.
One day before the January Consumer Price Index release, the White House issued a warning about rising inflation.
Global indices ended the day in the green, with Wall Street gaining ground thanks to a rebound in the tech sector and positive earnings reports.
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MASSIVE gains to be had in resource producers next 10+ years!!!Here you can see the ratio of XAU (an index of 30 precious metal mining companies) to the S&P 500 compared to the yield on the US 10 year treasury (orange line). As you can see, we have been in a falling rate environment ever since Volcker jacked up rates in the early 80s and put a floor under the value of the Dollar. XAU/SPX has followed the treasury yields down with strong correlation.
Currently, treasury yields have no where to go but up, and the reversal has already started as you can see by the latest action. XAU/SPX has been consolidating since it bottomed in 2015, building energy for a massive breakout that will dwarf the last precious metals bull market (2000-2011). With rate hikes around the corner, weakening economic data, and suffocating levels of global debt, I know which bucket I would rather put my money and patience in.
Tensions rise in the forex market ahead of the US inflation data
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Significant pairings continued to lack directional momentum and traded between narrow intraday ranges. The dollar gained support from rising government bond yields, which reached 1.97 percent on the US 10-year Treasury note. On the other hand, the strength of yields was barely enough to keep the dollar from falling.
The EUR/USD pair temporarily broke beyond the 1.1400 barriers before settling in the 1.1410 range. By the end of the day, comments from European Central Bank member Francois Villeroy had placed some pressure on the common currency, claiming that the market had overreacted to President Christine Lagarde's remarks last week.
Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, reshuffled his government. Mark Spencer has taken over as the new leader of the Commons, replacing Jacob Rees-Mogg as Brexit Minister. Chris Heaton-Harris will take over as chief whip, with Paymaster General Michael Ellis taking on the additional post of Cabinet Office minister. The decision comes as the lockdown parties are embroiled in a controversy threatening Johnson's leadership. The GBP/USD exchange rate is now hovering at 1.3550.
The AUD/USD pair is trading near the 0.7140 level for the second day in a row. Lower oil prices hampered demand for the Canadian currency. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair crept higher and hovered around 1.2700. The dollar gained ground versus the safe-haven CHF and JPY.
Gold soared to a new two-week high of $1,828.36 per troy ounce, where it remained through the day. WTI is currently trading at $89.80 per barrel.
Market participants anticipate the release of US inflation data for January on Thursday.
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Market participants await
Market participants await
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The week started in slow motion, and the dollar ended the day mixed across the board. It managed to add some ground against its European rivals, although EUR/USD held above 1.1400, while GBP/USD settled at around 1.3530.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde poured cold water on rate hikes speculation. Speaking before the EU Parliament she said that there is no sign that inflation will measurably exceed the bank's 2% target in the medium term.
Commodity-linked currencies, on the other hand, managed to advance with AUD/USD trading at around 0.7120 and USD/CAD accelerating its slide at the end of the day to trade in the 1.2660 price zone.
Gold maintained its bullish stance throughout the day, ending the American session at $1,820 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices, however, retreated from their multi-year highs and WTI settled at $91.20 a barrel
Equities traded mixed, unable to find a clear direction. Wall Street is poised to close mixed with the major indexes trading around their opening levels.
US Treasury yields were sharply up ahead of the opening, holding on to gains, but pulling back from intraday highs.
Generally speaking, the week will be light in terms of macroeconomic releases, although the US will publish January Inflation next Thursday.
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Central banks move major currenciesToday's forex news: Central banks move major currencies
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The central banks' choices boosted European currencies, putting pressure on the dollar.
To be expected, the Bank of England raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent, despite 4 out of 9 voting members favoring a 0.50 percent boost. Simultaneously, the MPC reduced its purchases of government bonds. The central bank now expects inflation to peak around 7% in April and then decline to 2.15 % over two years. GBP/USD hit 1.3627 and is sitting at 1.3600.
The ECB left rates unchanged and maintained its monetary policy guidelines. The policymakers eliminated the words “in either direction” from the paragraph linked to being open to altering monetary policy as needed.
With President Lagarde saying she does not rule out a rate hike this year, the EUR/USD pair rose. On the topic of inflation, he reiterated that rate hikes will be based on the three criteria of forward guidance. 'Compared to our projections in December, the inflation prognosis is slanted upward, particularly in the near term' said Lagarde. EUR/USD peaked at 1.1451 and is now trading at 1.1430.
Commodity-linked currencies were hardly affected. AUD/USD is stable at 0.7130, while USD/CAD is at 1.2670.
The USD/JPY is nearing 115.00 towards the close of the American session. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.82 percent.
Gold recovered intraday losses to close at roughly $1,805.00 an ounce. WTI ended the day at $90 per barrel, up $1.50 from the previous day.
Friday's release will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls. The country should have added 150K jobs in January, keeping the unemployment rate at 3.9 percent.
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Dollar continues to weaken ahead of BOE, ECBToday’s Forex News: Dollar continues to weaken ahead of BOE, ECB
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On Wednesday, the dollar fell further, hitting new weekly lows against high-yielding peers. With the EU yearly Consumer Price Index rising to 5.1 percent in January, it outperformed expectations of 4.4 percent and 5 percent. A day before the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy, and the reading increased pressure on the central bank to tighten policy.
Government bond yields were near the weekly low.
The GBP/USD pair is nearing a daily high of 1.3587 after Wall Street rebounded from an early sell-off to close in the green. ADP poll showed the private sector lost 301K jobs in January, far more than expected, raising concerns about the country's economic recovery.
AUD/USD is around 0.7140, while USD/CAD is 1.2660. Safe-haven currencies have risen against the dollar.
Gold rose slightly intraday to $1,808 an ounce, while crude oil prices held stable around Tuesday's close. WTI closed at $88.10.
After a sluggish start, US indices rallied. The DJIA gained over 200 points.
The ECB and the BoE will publish their monetary policy decisions on Thursday.
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