Giving Away Gold Miners : 13.6% of all XAU closes <= 67.3Giving Away Gold Miners : 13.6% of all XAU closes <= 67.3
XAU trade ideas
If XAU pops to 100, it's a 47% gain, 200 a 200% gainIf XAU pops to 100, it's a 47% gain, 200 a 200% gain
Since 1984 the XAU Index closed below 68 14% of time - BULLISHSince 1984 the XAU Index closed below 68 14% of time - BULLISH
CASE FOR A TOP IN GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS IS NOW Today the xau gold stock index rallied to peak at a .382 of the long term decline and it also rallied in an abc form as well as having two equal legs up I am now short the gold sector in xau using dust today I was filled at 22.25 .I see the gold index declining to a new low into mid feb
XAU buy opportunityXAU in comparison to gold and silver shows bullish signs.
Gold has had a good little rallye and is taking breath, while silver is just making the rallye.
XAU - representing the mines of both (hedged and unhedged) was more stable and stayed within a symmetrical triangle. Nearly in the middle of this triangle pattern we find the fib retracement line at 61.8%, this line is a swing trend line.
I drew a blue line of a possible movement in the next time.
What shall happen: silver shall stay strong and gold shall not fall back on lower levels.
With RSI rising and MACD signalling strength and momentum the Index should at least rise to the upper limit, perhaps rebounding, falling back to the fib retracement and then crossing the upper limit to new highs.
Is this scenario out of the blue?
With gold and silver in good condition - no! And the USD (here as pair to CHF) has gained force as well.
Correction starting in Copper...Copper breaks bullish trend against Silver with divergence, warning for Copper Bulls
XAU Price Correlation with COT ReportsHere's a chart that shows the days when Swap/Prod shorts hit their peaks on the GOLD-COT Report.
Purple lines plotted against XAU show that prices dropped every time Swap/Prod started reducing their short positions.
Producer shorts last week were sitting at 192,484, which was the highest since Jan-2013. This week Producer Shorts dropped to183,073.
Will history repeat itself?
www.tradingster.com
PM Miners : Neutral till FED DecisionWorking hard to refine my periodicity modelling, but seems to predict reasonably top's and bottom's. We have the special case that tomorrow's cycle bottom coincides with FED meeting, so depending on USDJPY short time movement it is reasonable to go neutral till Wed. evening or Thursday. The range of movement of GDX is rather limited. We should expect a 20.50 to 24 range... It is still a forex play! With USDJPY moving back to 120 Range, GDX should go back to 15-18.
xau marchgold/silver index simple idea on weekly:
February low got broken indicating a trendchange.
R/R for this month is better to the downside.
A test of the bottom of the bb band area would be apreciated.
I don't expect it to break 71.63.. The 76 area would be a nice area to reach before we can look for a turn back up.
Longer term the trend is strong and remains up.
HUI XAU GDX GDXJ : Back on short sideAfter a really nice retest of the Head and Shoulders Neckline it is time to get back to the short side. Target remains the 2016 low region.
GDX & Miners: Back on short sideUSDJPY rising, US30Y back above 3%, we had a crappy Volume in recent days... So I'm back on short side with DUST JDST. I hope It's the final decline.
PM Miners: reason to be bullish ??presenting without further comments. down till Nov 20/21... up till Dec. 9
Miners: Decision TimeA view on miners indices (hui + xau) shows that we reached a tripple resistance consisting of a head and shoulders neckline, a longer term support line and the upper border of the downward channel. With the current weak momentum in Gold I do not expect the break of the tripple resistance, but if this happens one should clearly go long.
XAU: Gold/Silver index in a strong uptrendThe Gold/Silver index is well supported here, against the former long term downtrend resistance, now turned support, plus the recent uptrend mode (most frequent price in the advance).
If we have good follow through to the upside tomorrow, we can expect a sizeable bullish move in precious metals.
For both gold and silver instruments, you can enter longs at market or on a break of Thursday's high, with stop loss 1 tick under the low.
Check out the top down view in the comments section.
Cheers,
Ivan.
pd: if interested in access to my trading signals, contact me for a free trial.
Posts 23-month new highs following breaking through 200-week MA 7-7-16
XAU @102.50 – bullish – Posts 23-month new highs following breaking through 200-week MA
XAU extended the strong rally from the 77.99 low (May 23, 2016 weekly low) through 93.66 (May 2, 2016 high) and the 200-week moving average (currently at 92.17) to post new 23-month new highs. Further upside opens 106.01 (July 2014 monthly range high) and then 115.21 (August 2013 lower high, near 38.2% of the 232.72/38.36 entire 5-year fall (December 2010-January 2016)).
The 93.66 range high near the 200-week moving average reverts to support. Only a return below the latter would suggest consolidation towards the 77.99 area .
Outlook:
Daily: bullish
weekly: bullish
Monthly: bullish
XAU - Posts 21-month new highs following monthly upside break6-26-16
XAU @93.70 – bullish – Posts 21-month new highs following upside break thru 4.5-year down trendline
XAU rallied strongly from the 38.36 all-time low (January 2016) to post a new 21-month high at 95.36 (June 2016). The move was supported by the upside break through the 4.5-year falling trendline (September 2011/September 2012 lower highs), suggesting strength of the bullish momentum remains. While the 95.36 area is where the 200-week moving average currently locates, with the overbought technical readings, it is possible the gold index could consolidate above the 77.99 support (May 2016 higher low). Further gains above 95.36 would signal continued momentum towards 106.01 (July 2014 monthly range high) and then 115.21 (August 2013 lower high, near 38.2% of the 232.72/38.36 entire 5-year fall (December 2010-January 2016)).
However, a return below the 77.99 area would suggest topping and extends the decline towards the 50-week moving average currently at 60.10.
Outlook:
Daily: bullish to neutral
Weekly: bullish
Monthly: bullish
