#TSM DOUBLE TOP RETEST EXECUTED#TSM Bears in action, Double top neckline retested and rejected @ $107.68. The next potential support level acts at $76.18
2330 trade ideas
TSM - Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingNON LOG: Weekly TF. Price moving towards the support TL, hence more downside expected and need to wait as how price reacts at the support TL
$TSM Bullish call flow at support zoneLot of June 3 calls hit the tape on TSM, I like the levels here and like the probability of upside in the near term.
First PT $96, close below 87 invalidates idea
I'm long 95 6/3 calls already up 33%, with stop just above break even.
TSM - a decade hangs in the balanaceTSM now encounters the situation where the prior decade resistance is now being tested as a 'support' level.
Unfortunately for TSM since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the threat of China invading Taiwan has become ever more possible and as such the markets are attempting to price this in.
However this company is still very much fair value generating strong cash flows with no real rivals in the space. As such, if TSM holds and generates some structure around this support level it would be well worth a revisit.
$TSM into mark down period A year long distribution period finally breaks the double top neckline and moving into the mark down phase as triple MA all are pointing downwards.
Potential X-X target to 73 dollars before accumulation/ consolidation takes place
TSM - New Growth Cycle with 100% Potential?Is the world leading chip maker TSMC about to start a new growth cycle?
Fundamental indicators:
Revenue and Profits - exponential growth
Profit margin - is at circa 37%, impressive figure considering the growth levels
P/E - reasonable at 23x
Liabilities - no problems there
Risks:
Recession - is not likely to have a big impact on TSMC as demand on its products keeps growing, but it may impact share prices when the market starts correcting
China tensions - this is the highest risk to stability and future of this business which is difficult to assess but it certainly needs to be taken into account
Technically:
Following correction of 2020 there was an explosive growth in the share price of TSMC which indicates that it was wave 3 using Elliott Wave analysis
And looking at the structure of the correction that has developed since the peak - the impulse like movement at the end suggests it is an Extended Flat
At the lower time timeframe it is visible that the fifth wave of this impulse is quite choppy which indicates that ending diagonal is developing and soon there will be a reversal
Given the depth of the forming wave 4 is 50% (using Fibonacci level) the fifth wave maybe not as explosive and may reach $150 to $190, which is impressive 100% jump from the current price level
Alternative scenario - there is a possibility that wave 4 has not completed yet and it may drop further, however, at the moment it looks unlikely
Do you think that TSMC is going to start another impressive bull cycle?
Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves.
Thanks
TSM looking for a bottom Good afternoon traders,
Today I am updating my TSM analysis...I have exited completely from trade but will look for another entry point...We have filled the GAP at the $93 area and are currently sitting on resistance turned support at $91.50ish area...It has had an 11% move to the downside in the last 5 days so I can see this moving up possibly back to the .236 at the $98ish range before a bigger move down...All in all the entire semi conductor sector is weak with no end in sight so I can see this moving down to the $77 to $83 range before it possibly finds a bottom...Let me know what you think in the comments below...As always Happy Trading!!!!!!!
TSM - 5th leg down, 3 drive pattern SHORT CITYIt is in my humble opinion TSM is looking at a rather large drop looming ahead - symmetrically the pattern meets the harmonic qualifications as well as the elliot wave theory macro wave iterations.
It is possible TSM will make a small shoulder before breaking the $100 price level - should it break this level and close below I believe it will be a swift fall to the $85 level, however if it wasn't "quick" the position I hold does allow for some time.
Trade: 6/17 exp $85 PUTS @ 1.17 on 4/1 - currently trading at 1.62 at time of post
$TSM with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $TSM after a Negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 33.33%.
TSM will breach support and continue lowerThere is no better crystal ball to predict the future performance of an asset than its own chart.
Keeping it simple, TSM broke bellow a 15-month lateral range, and several days later failed to reconquer the lost grounds. It's been under distribution, and the last candle is the most bearish.
TSM won't be able to hold at support and will continue lower.
Earnings this weekEarnings this week 4/11-4/15. Here's a YTD comparison so far up till 4/11:
4/13 earnings
DAL
JPM
BBBY
RENT
4/14 earnings
TSM
UNH
GS
MS
RAD
ERIC
YTD comparison
BBBY +28.43%
UNH +7.75%
DAL -4.1%
ERIC -12.21%
MS -14.06%
JPM -15.59%
GS -15.86%
TSM -18.82%
RENT -35.81%
RAD -48.23%
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
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Great results and future expected on 4/14 earning call. Also my AI model shows TSM will reach $206 in 2024.
Copy the screen to wait and see. NYSE:TSM
TSM PUTS MONDAY-Looking to play TSM puts all the way down to 97.71 then catch the bounce for some calls
-IF we do not bounce I will catch puts for a lower move
Anticipating to enterHitting resistance for now, been sideway for a while now.
Waiting for that break above 110 for a safer bet to enter.
$TSM Potential Reversal at Resistance$TSM broke down from a massive range / double top. After price peeked back into the range and above the 20-day, it reversed and closed below both after today's action. This deviation likely leaves a lot of bulls offsides (bull trap) which could fuel a selloff in the stock. There's no reason to believe that Apple is planning on moving away from TSM or that there will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but price typically precedes news. The US is aggressively funding semiconductor fab domestically, which leaves TSM at a disadvantage. The stock may just be correcting to account for perceived increased geopolitical risk. Whatever the reason, the chart is showing weakness. With the Nasdaq overbought and selling off today, now may be a good time to take a short on TSM.
I'm short at $107.10 with a stop loss at $109.76.
$TSM Previous support to turn into resistance?the $108 level was significant support for the TSM for the entirety of 2021. Massive accumulation zone which failed in early March. Interesting level to watch as a failure to reclaim this important level could result in further capitulation in the stock. However if we manage to break above, a false break could be seen as a positive sign for the counter going forward.
<<Weinstein Stage Analysis>>Hey folks! Welcome to my post on Weinstein Stage Analysis on TSM.
Background: Stage Analysis is a topic Stan Weinstein discussed in his book from 1988 “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets“, where he details his classic four stage breakout method for identifying the best quality stocks to buy and sell in any market environment.
Stage 1- The basing:
Stage 1 occurs when a stock bottoms and forms a horizontal consolidation. New shareholders replace the old ones, in turn replacing fear with hope that will eventually turn into greed.
Accumulation tends to speed up near the end of the pattern, triggering a set of higher-than-average volume spikes that show enthusiastic buying interest. On-balance volume (OBV) and other accumulation-distribution tools bottom out with price and turn higher, reflecting the newly bullish technical outlook. Watch closely when these indicators show greater upside than price action within the base, because this can signal an impending breakout that sets off Stage 2.
Stage 2 - The Advance:
Stage 2 occurs when the price has broken out of the consolidation in stage 1. It triggers a bullish uptrend where the price stays above the 30 Week MA. You will also notice that the stock will outperform the S&P 500 during this stage.
Stage 3 - Consolidation:
When the price of the stock crosses below the 30 Week MA, it is safe to assume that stage 3 is happening where the price is in a long consolidation. The price of the stock fails to reach higher highs and the stock tend to underperform the S&P 500.
Stage 4 - Decline:
Stage 4 typically occurs when the price of the stock breaks below a long term support during the stage 3 consolidation. It usually starts with high volume and ends in low volume. Short positions taken early in a downtrend carry higher risk and higher reward than late in the decline.
Conclusion:
Stan Weinstein's stage analysis is a very powerful tool for longer term trading (mainly on the weekly chart) and risk management. Another great example using the Weinstein stage analysis is PYPL where you can clearly see the stock following the stage analysis patterns.
Is Nasdaq about to nuke into oblivion?Taiwan is the world´s largest producer of semiconductors and among them the TSMC reigns supreme with more than a 50% (global) market share.
- extremely clean distribution range
- projected downside is 30% lower
While this is an Asian company and NDAQ is an US index the fact is most of the USA´s blue chip techies get their chips from Taiwan. As a result, a supply crisis in Taiwan should heavily affect the USA and therefore the Nasdaq.
Taiwan Semiconductors are losing favor. TSMImmediate targets 110, 104, 100. Invalidation 158.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
Bad news for TSM????Hello Traders,
Today I am covering TSM on a chart analysis...There is no fundamentals on this yet but here goes...Over the last year TSM has been in a consolidation phase which spiked in Jan of this year...Since that spike we are down 28% and have broke a very important support line at the $108ish area to the downside... We are sitting in -MACD with separation from the 9 EMA signal line as well as a bounce off of the 30 RSI overbought levels with a cross of the signal line to test the 50 RSI...What I see materializing IMO is that this retests the support turned resistance line at the $108ish area...If this breaks up then we wait BUT if this breaks down from this point we definitely move in to fill the GAP starting at the $95ish area with a potential move to the downside of 12 to 24% based on price targets...Let me know what you think in the comments below...Happy Trading!!!!!!
