Slight pullback before $95 pbBrent crude oil is pulling back as expected despite the elevated tension in the Middle East. A failed break below $85 per barrel will allow black gold to continue its move higher towards $95 per barrel.
UKOIL trade ideas
UKOIL Rating: High Bearish Momentum
Potential long re-entry on a pullback to around the $83.55 to $84.30 range.
These are provisional levels.
Escalation in Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil ReactsEscalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts
On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend.
Let's remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil did not rise. Perhaps this happened because Iran's attack was then expected after the attack on its diplomatic mission, and warnings were published in the media.
And the initial reaction of financial markets to the escalation tonight looked more dramatic - there was a jump in prices for protective assets:
→ gold rose in price to USD 2,410 and above;
→ the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have risen in price;
→ oil and US Treasury bonds rose in price.
There was also a sale of risky assets — Bitcoin, for example, fell below the USD 60k level. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, told Reuters: "It's pretty obvious the market is nervous. I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode.”
As the morning approached, new information began to appear in Europe:
→ An Iranian official told Reuters that there was no missile attack;
→ CNN writes that Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones, and the United States did not approve of the Israeli attack;
→ According to the IAEA, there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the Israeli strike.
→ According to ABC News, air traffic has resumed in Iran.
As a result, prices moved towards the closing levels of yesterday's trading — V-like patterns formed on the charts of the mentioned instruments.
The oil market can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of nightly news, since Iran is one of the top 10 countries in oil production.
Technical analysis of the Brent oil chart shows that:
→ the price rebounded from the level of the lower border of the ascending black channel (as we wrote yesterday);
→ however, supply forces intensified and returned the price closer to the lower border;
→ at the same time, a bearish inverted V pattern has formed on the Brent price chart today, and the median line of the channel shows signs of resistance;
→ it is also acceptable to expect that the former support at USD 88.50 will provide resistance when the price attempts to rise.
If a further round of escalation between Iran and Israel does not occur, it is possible that the Brent price will break down the current black ascending channel. And this may be welcomed by the US administration, where presidential elections are getting closer and closer.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Strifor || BRENT-18/04/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: An excellent situation has formed for oil in the short term. After the price falls below level 89 , the continuation of the downward trend towards level 85 is considered, where we set a target for this trading idea. Buyers are trying in vain to buy off the “bottom” of the market, but today the limit buyer dominates the market and pushes the price down.
We are considering two scenarios, where scenario №1 is more likely, but in no case do we forget about scenario №2 , in which there will be a preliminary liquidation of “extra passengers”, and this will also allow us to attract new buyers as “fuel” for the trip down. One can also consider targets below level 85 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Crude OIL: Bearish scenarioIf current and next 4h candle close behind the trend line we are in bearish trend. The main reason is inflation, nobody needs so expensive oil, it is very bad for economy. Many of us expected the conflict on middle east will push the price higher but as you see it doesn't happen.
Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%
At the beginning of the week, March 15, we wrote that the price of Brent oil could form a correction from the resistance level of USD 91 per barrel. Since then, the price has decreased by more than 4% due to a number of factors:
→ easing concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Reuters, and easing its conflict with Israel reduces the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
→ reduction in oil consumption. JP Morgan analysts noted this week that global oil consumption in April stood at 101 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels below forecast.
→ growth in oil reserves in the USA. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels last week, the EIA reported.
Technical analysis of the Brent oil chart shows that the price has declined to the lower boundary of the intermediate ascending channel (shown by black lines), as expected. This means that the market may experience a rebound from the level of $86, where the support zone is located, which is formed by:
→ median line of the long-term blue channel;
→ lower border of the intermediate black channel.
We note that the development of bearish sentiment will be hampered by the so-called risk premium associated with geopolitical factors.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Assessing Brent's Support Levels for Potential OpportunitiesHello Everyone,
Despite being below the 1D/1W PP, Brent appears to be a promising buy. Both the weekly and daily support levels are showing resilience. However, if these support levels falter, there's a possibility of revisiting the monthly support.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Bullish Oil Options Traded at Record Pace Before Iran AttackOil investors piled into the options market days before Iran launched its attack on Israel and traded a record amount of contracts that profit from higher prices. Just over 1 million calls on the global Brent crude benchmark traded last week, surpassing a previous record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volumes were focused on contracts at $95 and above $100, with bullish calls trading at hefty premiums to bearish puts in recent weeks.
Traders have been flocking to the oil options market in order to hedge themselves against the risk of prices moving higher if the conflict between Israel and Iran widens further. Options are often used to protect against major geopolitical risks as they allow a cheaper way of profiting from a spike in prices.
Many of the bets won’t have profited yet given that crude prices and market volatility retreated when the market opened early on Monday, with the benchmark now changing hands below $90. However, as tensions in the region remain high such hedges are likely to remain in place over the coming weeks.
Calls at $100 and $110 are the most held options contracts over the next 12 months for Brent, according to ICE Futures Europe data compiled by Bloomberg. On Thursday alone, about 29 million barrels of new call option contracts were opened on the nearest trading month.
Brent Oil Price Did Not Rise Despite Iran's Attack on IsraelBrent Oil Price Did Not Rise Despite Iran's Attack on Israel
As you know, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel over the weekend. This could greatly increase the price of Brent oil, given that Iran is one of the top 10 oil producing countries, and the fact of the strike could provoke further escalation in the region.
However, at the beginning of the trading week, the price of Brent oil is below the levels at which they were at the end of last week. How so?
It is acceptable to assume the impact that the price reflects market risks and the expectations of its participants:
→ As the media wrote last week, the blow was expected after Israel’s attack on the Iranian mission.
→ The risk of escalation is not as high as it could be. According to the Washington Post, Biden advises Netanyahu to “slow down” after the Iranian attack. Administration officials said the United States would not join in any response to Tehran's attack and suggested Israel avoid escalation.
How might the situation develop further on the oil market?
From the point of view of technical analysis of the price of Brent oil, as we wrote on April 4, the upper limit of the blue channel is around USD 92 per barrel of Brent.
→ Fears of escalation pushed the price beyond the USD 91 level, but it failed to gain a foothold there.
→ The price quickly returned below the USD 91 level (as shown by the arrows) — a sign of bearish activity.
→ Resistance to price growth is provided by both the upper border of the blue channel and the upper border of the intermediate ascending channel (shown by black lines).
Please note that if we take the A→B impulse as a 100% basis, then at the price level of USD 90.80 per barrel of Brent there is a Fibonacci resistance level of 1.618.
Therefore, there is reason to assume that the price of oil may form a correction to the lower black support line if there are no signs of escalation (then the price of oil may rise closer to USD 100, as CNBC writes). And for the current US authorities, it is believed that rising oil prices are unprofitable due to the upcoming elections.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent Crude OilBrent Crude Oil
I called for a potential base on 07 December.
On the chart is also my proof of the call.
The commodity has advanced from $75 to the recent high of $92.
Will Brent continue to rise?📊 According to the buying pressure in the market, if the range of 91.5 units is broken upwards and the price stabilizes above it, the price may increase to the range of 72.6 units🎯, and if the range of 93.5 units🎯🎯 is strong.
📊 Otherwise, the price may decrease to the range of 88.5 units.
UK OilCrude Oil - brewing nicely for Putin's Holy War like
Last push before it becomes absolutely useless in 20 years
UKOIL is technically BullishHere are some bullish reasons for the UK oil market:
Portfolio Shifts: As central banks reduce stimulus measures, investors are adjusting their portfolios. Energy and financial sectors are becoming more attractive after years of tech dominance. Oil stocks have already seen significant gains since the 2020 lows, and the transition of COVID-19 from pandemic to endemic is expected to further boost the rally.
Fed Tightening Cycle: The upcoming tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, coupled with the transition of COVID-19, should provide additional momentum for oil stocks. Energy companies, which started from low valuations, remain relatively cheap and are poised for further upside as long as oil prices stay within the current range.
European Oil Majors: Morgan Stanley analysts highlight seven reasons to invest in European oil majors, particularly Shell and Eni: Robust outlook for oil and gas prices Strong free cash flow prospects Rising distributions and falling debt Resumption of an upcycle in return on capital Beneficiary of value rotation Compelling valuations Changing perception.
Valuation Discount: The MSCI AC Oil & Gas index trades at a record 63% valuation discount to world stocks, making oil stocks compelling from a valuation perspective
Oil price analysis in weekly timeDue to the clearing of sellers in the local area, the price of oil at $14 is ready to rise again to this area and register a new ETH.
"Beta version whale"
UKOil short term bias (Counter trend) looks bearish**Monthly Chart**
Last month's candle closed bullish indicating a continuous uptrend move at least to the monthly MC of Oct 2023. This month candle opened near the high of the previous candle and resumed higher.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week's candle closed bullish, suggesting a continuation of the bullish move at least toward testing the previous MC candle around the 95 level. However, short-term bias (counter trend) is bearish if the price is unable to sustain the move higher and start reversing.
**Daily Chart**
Short-term counter trend bias is bearish at the break of key reversal near the liquidity pool (Supply Zone) at least to test 88.00 level before it continues moving higher.
Long-term bull market or sideways correction structureDear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
What I expect of Brent in intraday Chart Hello everyone
I think after last week that Brent fixed its buyer positions, now it is making a correction for its wave 1 Minor of wave (3) intermediate of ...
This counting is so controversial between bearish market fans but as I always say, I do not have any interest to any bullish or bearish market and I just try to make money so I change my strategy when invalidation or confirmations order me to do that.
(Sorry for my English if it has many mistakes:))
Thanks
BRENT ?
We had passed a multi week resistance.
I think that below 90.000 won't be there for long.
Fundamentally news supports higher Oil prices.
For short run. Will be looking at 95.00
I'll have to track news on this..
I wish you all well
All the best
CRUDE OIL Heist Plan to Rob the oil barrelsHola Traders,
This is our Excellent master plan to Heist Bullish side of Crude oil barrels. My dear Looters U can enter at the any point above the green MA pullback area, Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Trap area. Put Stop loss in recent swing LOW. Dear Robbers we can steal oil barrells and finally sell in the commodities market then make money and take money. Be safe and be Rich.
UKOIL APRIL 2024 WEEK 2 OUTLOOK -
Daily - looking good for longs. gap down today looks good for the bias continuation but I will be much keen to enter longs if we get a deeper pullback.
Origin - **90.31** is the level I am looking for. once that gets cleared, I can enter long position. before that happens, it will be better if we get another pullback to start of month AVWAP or even lower to previous week's VAL
Brent Crude Oil Demand Spike(WTICOUSD, too)Looking forward to entering Long on BCOUSD after NFP today.
Am not too eager to enter, if it happens, its good. If it doesn't happen, I am fine too, since today is Friday, and I have to hold my positions over the weekends.
I am used to holding trades over the weekends, however I prefer the weekdays. Therefore, when Mondays roll around, I thank God its Monday!
Anyway, our discounted price zone is the 10EMA based on previous Black Friday Sale discounts offered.
Price made a kink in the 10EMA discount by offering 20EMA discount yesterday or so, however, I do not believe it would continue giving 20EMA discounts which is bigger discounts, because, the Flag Pole is very big and long, while the flag is minute.
As usual, I am very aggressive at cutting losses, and moving my stop loss towards Breakeven and into profits. Once the trade is in, I will immediately shift my stoploss upwards by one tenth of the SL size, because my intention is never to price hit my full R loss. I am wrong many a times, by being too aggressive at cutting losses, moving my stop loss forward, etc and price continues to go in my favour after I am out of the trade, however, the results does show that I am profitable, and so, I will continue with my new ways.
I began doing such aggressive SL shifting earlier this year at around February, and it has been profits for me ever since, week on week.
2002SGT
05042024
UKOIL Bullish Trade OpportunityOverview:
Get ready for a potential uptrend continuation in UKOIL! Our charts are painting a picture of bullish sentiment, and we've got the technical set-up to back up our next big move.
Technical Analysis:
On the 1-hour chart, we've noticed a dip into the golden Fibonacci zone – a classic area of interest for bulls to jump in. It’s an optimal entry spot for those looking to catch the wave up. Switching to the daily, UKOIL is comfortably cruising in an uptrend, channeling between support and resistance levels that have stood the test of time.
Trade Strategy:
Entry Point: We're eyeing the golden fib level for entry – it's where the magic happens.
Stop Loss: To keep things tight and tidy, we've marked our line in the sand just below the recent low. It's our safety net, keeping us clear from any sudden market plunges.
Take Profit: We're aiming high! The take profit is set at the peak – the top black line on our chart – because why settle for less when the trend is our friend?
Risk Considerations:
This isn't about gambling; it's about smart decisions. We've calculated our risk to ensure it's a sum we're comfortable with, should the tides turn against us.
Why We're Bullish:
The stars have aligned with our technical indicators, pointing to a bullish continuation. We’ve got the rising channel on the daily and a sweet spot on the 1-hour chart that's too good to pass up.
