Break above $90 pb is imminent. Brent crude oil has caught strong support off the 50-day MA of $85.50 pb and the move towards $93.40 pb is now firmly on the cards.
UKOILSPOT trade ideas
BCOUSD in the first half of 2024A glimpse of the BCOUSD in the first half of 2024
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Promising Outlook for Brent in Current Market ConditionsHello Everyone,
Brent represents a comprehensive buy opportunity at this particular juncture, with further potential upside anticipated in the near future!
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Ukoil Target long position The chart wave structure is suitable for long positions. The psychological basis and the world conjuncture will bring the position target shown on the chart. It points to the change in dynamics that cause prices to remain under pressure for a long time. Ignoring the fluctuations, the strategy was determined in the direction of the target
Bullish scenario!Esteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
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The bearish scenario of any corrective pattern and trend continuation
BCOUSD - Breaks INVERSE HEAD AND SHOULDER PatternBCOUSD in 1h timeframe chart is printing Breaks Inverse Head and Shoulder Reversal Pattern with Bullish Divergence after it's declining phase.
Jump on the Oil Swings with Confidence!I am excited to share some positive news with you regarding the recent developments in the oil industry.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories took a significant dip last week, falling by a whopping 6.37 million barrels. This decline has sparked a wave of optimism in the market, with WTI prices hovering around $83 a barrel and swinging between gains and losses.
As we navigate through this risk-off mood and witness the US stockpile decline, now is the perfect time to consider going long on oil. The potential for further price increases is certainly within reach, and this could be a lucrative opportunity for all of us.
So, let's not hesitate and take advantage of these oil swings with confidence. Trust your instincts, do your research, and make informed decisions. Together, we can ride the wave of success in the oil market.
Quick Market Update: Navigating Current Trends!#MarketInsights #GlobalEconomy #InterestRates
🌐 Quick Market Update: Navigating Current Trends!
▪️ Euro Strengthens: Robust business activity in Europe paired with cooling economic indicators in the U.S. have pushed the euro past $1.07.
▪️ Tesla's Rally: Despite a dip in profits and revenue-per-vehicle, Tesla's promise of new models next year spurred a 13% jump in its shares after-hours, recovering from a tough 2024 with a 42% drop earlier.
▪️ Aussie Recovery: Surprising inflation figures in Australia have revived the Australian dollar, bringing it back to its 200-day moving average against the U.S. dollar.
▪️ Yen at Decade Lows: The yen remains weak at 34-year lows, stirring market anticipation of potential Japanese government interventions, especially after significant forex market actions post a dovish Bank of Japan meeting. The yen traded around 154.85 against the dollar.
▪️ Global Focus: Upcoming are German business sentiment data, European policy maker speeches, and key earnings from companies like Meta and Boeing. Also, watch out for the U.S. core PCE data on Friday which could provide crucial rate clues.
▪️ China's Bond Market: After a record rally, China's long-dated bond yields spiked following central bank warnings about market risks.
🔍 Key Events to Monitor:
Economics: German Ifo survey.
Earnings: Reports from Electrolux, Eni, Orange, Meta, Ford, Bunge, AT&T, Hilton, Boeing.
Policy Talks: Speeches by ECB's Tuominen
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Slight pullback before $95 pbBrent crude oil is pulling back as expected despite the elevated tension in the Middle East. A failed break below $85 per barrel will allow black gold to continue its move higher towards $95 per barrel.
UKOIL Rating: High Bearish Momentum
Potential long re-entry on a pullback to around the $83.55 to $84.30 range.
These are provisional levels.
Escalation in Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil ReactsEscalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts
On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend.
Let's remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil did not rise. Perhaps this happened because Iran's attack was then expected after the attack on its diplomatic mission, and warnings were published in the media.
And the initial reaction of financial markets to the escalation tonight looked more dramatic - there was a jump in prices for protective assets:
→ gold rose in price to USD 2,410 and above;
→ the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have risen in price;
→ oil and US Treasury bonds rose in price.
There was also a sale of risky assets — Bitcoin, for example, fell below the USD 60k level. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, told Reuters: "It's pretty obvious the market is nervous. I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode.”
As the morning approached, new information began to appear in Europe:
→ An Iranian official told Reuters that there was no missile attack;
→ CNN writes that Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones, and the United States did not approve of the Israeli attack;
→ According to the IAEA, there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the Israeli strike.
→ According to ABC News, air traffic has resumed in Iran.
As a result, prices moved towards the closing levels of yesterday's trading — V-like patterns formed on the charts of the mentioned instruments.
The oil market can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of nightly news, since Iran is one of the top 10 countries in oil production.
Technical analysis of the Brent oil chart shows that:
→ the price rebounded from the level of the lower border of the ascending black channel (as we wrote yesterday);
→ however, supply forces intensified and returned the price closer to the lower border;
→ at the same time, a bearish inverted V pattern has formed on the Brent price chart today, and the median line of the channel shows signs of resistance;
→ it is also acceptable to expect that the former support at USD 88.50 will provide resistance when the price attempts to rise.
If a further round of escalation between Iran and Israel does not occur, it is possible that the Brent price will break down the current black ascending channel. And this may be welcomed by the US administration, where presidential elections are getting closer and closer.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Strifor || BRENT-18/04/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: An excellent situation has formed for oil in the short term. After the price falls below level 89 , the continuation of the downward trend towards level 85 is considered, where we set a target for this trading idea. Buyers are trying in vain to buy off the “bottom” of the market, but today the limit buyer dominates the market and pushes the price down.
We are considering two scenarios, where scenario №1 is more likely, but in no case do we forget about scenario №2 , in which there will be a preliminary liquidation of “extra passengers”, and this will also allow us to attract new buyers as “fuel” for the trip down. One can also consider targets below level 85 .
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Crude OIL: Bearish scenarioIf current and next 4h candle close behind the trend line we are in bearish trend. The main reason is inflation, nobody needs so expensive oil, it is very bad for economy. Many of us expected the conflict on middle east will push the price higher but as you see it doesn't happen.
Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%
At the beginning of the week, March 15, we wrote that the price of Brent oil could form a correction from the resistance level of USD 91 per barrel. Since then, the price has decreased by more than 4% due to a number of factors:
→ easing concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Reuters, and easing its conflict with Israel reduces the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
→ reduction in oil consumption. JP Morgan analysts noted this week that global oil consumption in April stood at 101 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels below forecast.
→ growth in oil reserves in the USA. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels last week, the EIA reported.
Technical analysis of the Brent oil chart shows that the price has declined to the lower boundary of the intermediate ascending channel (shown by black lines), as expected. This means that the market may experience a rebound from the level of $86, where the support zone is located, which is formed by:
→ median line of the long-term blue channel;
→ lower border of the intermediate black channel.
We note that the development of bearish sentiment will be hampered by the so-called risk premium associated with geopolitical factors.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Assessing Brent's Support Levels for Potential OpportunitiesHello Everyone,
Despite being below the 1D/1W PP, Brent appears to be a promising buy. Both the weekly and daily support levels are showing resilience. However, if these support levels falter, there's a possibility of revisiting the monthly support.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Bullish Oil Options Traded at Record Pace Before Iran AttackOil investors piled into the options market days before Iran launched its attack on Israel and traded a record amount of contracts that profit from higher prices. Just over 1 million calls on the global Brent crude benchmark traded last week, surpassing a previous record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volumes were focused on contracts at $95 and above $100, with bullish calls trading at hefty premiums to bearish puts in recent weeks.
Traders have been flocking to the oil options market in order to hedge themselves against the risk of prices moving higher if the conflict between Israel and Iran widens further. Options are often used to protect against major geopolitical risks as they allow a cheaper way of profiting from a spike in prices.
Many of the bets won’t have profited yet given that crude prices and market volatility retreated when the market opened early on Monday, with the benchmark now changing hands below $90. However, as tensions in the region remain high such hedges are likely to remain in place over the coming weeks.
Calls at $100 and $110 are the most held options contracts over the next 12 months for Brent, according to ICE Futures Europe data compiled by Bloomberg. On Thursday alone, about 29 million barrels of new call option contracts were opened on the nearest trading month.
Brent Oil Price Did Not Rise Despite Iran's Attack on IsraelBrent Oil Price Did Not Rise Despite Iran's Attack on Israel
As you know, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel over the weekend. This could greatly increase the price of Brent oil, given that Iran is one of the top 10 oil producing countries, and the fact of the strike could provoke further escalation in the region.
However, at the beginning of the trading week, the price of Brent oil is below the levels at which they were at the end of last week. How so?
It is acceptable to assume the impact that the price reflects market risks and the expectations of its participants:
→ As the media wrote last week, the blow was expected after Israel’s attack on the Iranian mission.
→ The risk of escalation is not as high as it could be. According to the Washington Post, Biden advises Netanyahu to “slow down” after the Iranian attack. Administration officials said the United States would not join in any response to Tehran's attack and suggested Israel avoid escalation.
How might the situation develop further on the oil market?
From the point of view of technical analysis of the price of Brent oil, as we wrote on April 4, the upper limit of the blue channel is around USD 92 per barrel of Brent.
→ Fears of escalation pushed the price beyond the USD 91 level, but it failed to gain a foothold there.
→ The price quickly returned below the USD 91 level (as shown by the arrows) — a sign of bearish activity.
→ Resistance to price growth is provided by both the upper border of the blue channel and the upper border of the intermediate ascending channel (shown by black lines).
Please note that if we take the A→B impulse as a 100% basis, then at the price level of USD 90.80 per barrel of Brent there is a Fibonacci resistance level of 1.618.
Therefore, there is reason to assume that the price of oil may form a correction to the lower black support line if there are no signs of escalation (then the price of oil may rise closer to USD 100, as CNBC writes). And for the current US authorities, it is believed that rising oil prices are unprofitable due to the upcoming elections.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent Crude OilBrent Crude Oil
I called for a potential base on 07 December.
On the chart is also my proof of the call.
The commodity has advanced from $75 to the recent high of $92.
Will Brent continue to rise?📊 According to the buying pressure in the market, if the range of 91.5 units is broken upwards and the price stabilizes above it, the price may increase to the range of 72.6 units🎯, and if the range of 93.5 units🎯🎯 is strong.
📊 Otherwise, the price may decrease to the range of 88.5 units.
UK OilCrude Oil - brewing nicely for Putin's Holy War like
Last push before it becomes absolutely useless in 20 years
UKOIL is technically BullishHere are some bullish reasons for the UK oil market:
Portfolio Shifts: As central banks reduce stimulus measures, investors are adjusting their portfolios. Energy and financial sectors are becoming more attractive after years of tech dominance. Oil stocks have already seen significant gains since the 2020 lows, and the transition of COVID-19 from pandemic to endemic is expected to further boost the rally.
Fed Tightening Cycle: The upcoming tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, coupled with the transition of COVID-19, should provide additional momentum for oil stocks. Energy companies, which started from low valuations, remain relatively cheap and are poised for further upside as long as oil prices stay within the current range.
European Oil Majors: Morgan Stanley analysts highlight seven reasons to invest in European oil majors, particularly Shell and Eni: Robust outlook for oil and gas prices Strong free cash flow prospects Rising distributions and falling debt Resumption of an upcycle in return on capital Beneficiary of value rotation Compelling valuations Changing perception.
Valuation Discount: The MSCI AC Oil & Gas index trades at a record 63% valuation discount to world stocks, making oil stocks compelling from a valuation perspective
Oil price analysis in weekly timeDue to the clearing of sellers in the local area, the price of oil at $14 is ready to rise again to this area and register a new ETH.
"Beta version whale"
