UKOil, 4hrs BUY bias.Inverted Head and shoulder pattern.
We would wait for a breakout above the resistance level to form a new support level and bullish candlestick formation before looking for entry positions in the 30mins timeframe.
UKOILSPOT trade ideas
OPEC+ meeting incomingInitially postponed due to member disagreements, the OPEC+ meeting is now set for Thursday. Discussions are poised to delve into the consideration of deeper oil production cuts. Analysts foresee the potential extension or intensification of supply reductions into the coming year to stabilise oil prices, which currently hover around $80 a barrel. While the possibility of a collective reduction in output exists, specific details remain undisclosed.
The delay stemmed from disagreements over output levels for African producers. However, indications suggest a closer approach to reaching a compromise. The meeting's agenda features discussions by an advisory panel followed by a session with OPEC+ ministers. Notably, members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia previously committed to significant oil output cuts. Current discussions revolve around the continuation of these reductions, including Saudi's voluntary production cut and Russia's export reduction, both set to expire by year-end.
The likelihood of further oil cuts appears imminent, prompting us to refrain from offering a price prediction. However, I foresee a potential market shift—possibly a 1-2% increase if oil cuts are announced or a corresponding decrease in production sees an increase instead. My belief leans towards the former scenario. Nonetheless, any price hike might be short-lived as Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are set to expire by year-end.
Henceforth, it pays to pay attention to this meeting and see what the fine details are.
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Update - W/C 20 Nov 2023Last Monday we posted our weekly price prediction for Brent Crude Oil.
The chart above is our analysis. You can see further analysis in our previous post.
Our price prediction for last week was between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max).
As you can see from the chart below our analysis proved true. The price stayed within the range. However, it followed the bearish indications more so than the bullish indications.
The price hit the blue line resistance levels and proceeded to go down. Following the resistance line and finding some support in the High Volume Node from the Fixed Range Volume Profile.
There are also fundamental factors at play here as well. OPEC+ delayed their meeting due on 26th November by four days due to conflicting opinions in the organisation, this is what also led to the price decline.
If you had shorted the stock once it hit the blue line resistance level it would have netted you around 3.30% ROI to the current price. Not bad for a week.
Weekly Price Prediction: $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max)Most of the technical analysis from last week still stands true but I have added a new Fixed Range Volume Profile from the last peak and a resistance line from there as well.
Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$81.00 - $78.00 High Volume Node - Potential Support
$81.00 - $83.00 Resistance Lines - potential resistance
$84.50 Point of Control - potential resistance
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
The price is above to hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level which could indicate a level of resistance.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The Fixed Range Volume Profile from last week still stands. As you can see the price went down to the bottom High Volume Node (HVM) and found support.
Point of Control (POC): Identified at $84.50, indicating a level of potential future resistance and good liquidity.
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential support region, preventing a rapid decline from the 0.5 Fibonacci breakout.
Upper HVM: Acting as both a resistance level and a zone where the price has historically stalled after the first peak.
Low Volume Node (LVM): Reflects a lack of liquidity, leading to rapid price movements. Notable price fluctuations occurred between October and November in this region, ranging from $91.00 to $87.00 and back up to $90.00.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Last week the stoch RSI (Bottom indicator) crossed over but the price then declined but as you can now see the RSI is showing higher lows and higher highs suggesting there is a good trend of price moving upward. This is further expressed by the MACD (top indicator) not having crossed over yet, but about to, showing a reason for bullish movement.
Additional Factors
Prior Support/Resistance (Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior support/resistance level. This is now a potential resistance level as the price seems to be reaching there.
Above the price, there is also another resistance level shown by a blue line that's drawn from the peaks of the latest peak to the trough.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
In summary, our analysis reaffirms the high volume nodes (HVN) as robust support levels, supported by the encouraging indications from the MACD and Stochastic RSI favouring a potential upward price movement, targeting the breach of the point of control (POC) towards the low volume node (LVN) level. However, prudence dictates a cautious stance due to the presence of two distinct resistance tiers and the historical resilience demonstrated at prior POCs. Consequently, we've expanded our projected price range to accommodate these intricacies. Traders are advised to exercise caution by implementing tight stops, recognising the market's potential for fluctuations within this nuanced landscape
Brent - D1\H4Oil Brent
D1 - The price has formed a triangular formation, which may mean that if it fixes beyond the lower line of the triangle border, the price may continue to fall further along the trend and further reduce the price to the levels of 70.19
When fixing behind the upper trend line, the price may reverse and begin to rise, since a 3-wave structure may already be formed for the targets; in this case, we will see the price of 89.21.
H4 - For purchases, it is better to wait for fixation behind the trend line; you can also try to open at the current price with minimal risk per transaction from the lower border of the triangle. If there is a fixation, turn into sales.
What to expect now?
Waiting for the level of 82.07 to be broken/fixed and an upward movement towards the nearest targets of 89.21.
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 78.93 - 78.23, if this scenario does not materialize.
When fixing behind the lower line 78.95 - 78.15, the idea is canceled when a 3-wave structure is formed in the opposite direction 89.95 - 82.87.
Long
Targets 83.01 - 84.31 - 86.68 - 89.21
Short
Targets 76.47 - 75.24 - 72.63 - 70.19
OPEC and the Crude oil danceThe OPEC+ meeting that was scheduled to take place this weekend was postponed after disagreements from some of the African nations regarding the cartels production quotas. OPEC’s African members Angola and Nigeria have reportedly asked to have a higher production ceiling next year, after taking a cut in their quotas at the June 2023 meeting of OPEC+ as they had consistently failed to pump to their quotas. Additionally, Angola, Congo and Nigeria were forced to commit to lower oil production next year, and this weekend’s meeting could potentially have pressured them to make further production cuts. The Saudis have reportedly expressed discontent over compliance with the deal as it shoulders the bulk of the quota burden. We will keep a close eye on the developments of the negotiations and how it will affect oil prices in the 1Q2024. Most sources are expecting Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer, to extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into 2024, considering the latest slide in oil prices to $80 per barrel and the typically weak period for oil demand in the first quarter of every year.
Brent crude has fallen roughly 15% since the start of October and it is ow tethering around the 200-day MA price of $82 per barrel. The critical level to watch is the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of $80 per barrel. A break below this level will see crude drop back down to $72 per barrel. It will however be a bullish sign if it can hold levels above $80 pb as it will confirm an end to the ABC corrective pattern and the start of another 5-wave impulse which could push crude to above $100 pb.
LongClearly heading for ascending in midterm.
opec ahead
chinese eco growth signs
middle east geopol risks
DeGRAM | UKOIL bearish pressureUKOIL has been making lower highs and lower lows.
Price is testing the resistance at 82.00, the fibo, and the channel's upper border, which is a dynamic resistance.
We anticipate a trend continuation and a retest of the support level.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments, and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
Brent Crude Oil🛢️Outlook: Navigating The Next Huge Move (4H)Brent Crude Oil Forecast 🛢️ TVC:UKOIL
Just like we called it earlier, the price dropped from 82.00 to 79, hitting our Take Profit sweet spot.
Now, even though the price popped above 81, it couldn't make higher high, and it's chilling below the 100-day moving average on the 4-hour chart.
Looks like we might see it slide back from 81.50 - 82.00 to 80. If 80 can't hold its ground, we might be looking at a dip to the 77 zone. On the flip side, if it manages to break above 83, we could be in for a bullish ride.
Quick heads up: Keep your eyes peeled for any surprise moves, especially with the OPEC meeting on November 30, 2023, and the ongoing tension between Palestine and Israel.
Key Levels:
Support lines: 79.00 & 76.00
Resistance lines: 83.00 & 84.64
Drop your thoughts in the comments below. Appreciate your take on this! Thanks! 🚀
Looks like next week bullish for brent crudeI clearly see a inverted head and shoulder on the daily, gap up open o monday is possible and can shoot right up, what do you thik?
Classic Zigzag Wave A Diagonal!!Now Five Wave Bear Market??ThinkGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
1.2&1.2 Or Expanded Diagonal??Greetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
BRENT Time To Break DownTrendBRENT can break its downtrend line and if break, we can enter a LONG trade with targets of 84, 88, and 90
Brent oil prices found some support During early Friday trading, Brent oil prices found some support as investors continued to weigh the likelihood of additional production cuts from OPEC+ producers. The previous two sessions were marked by significant oscillations in the price of the barrel. There was an overall fall of almost 2%, as traders reacted to news of the postponement of a meeting of high-level representatives from OPEC+ member states, in which the main point on the agenda was agreeing on new production cuts. Nevertheless, the consensus amongst market participants remains tilted towards the high likelihood of additional output reductions, which could be announced at the end of the month. However, any upside for oil prices stays capped by the gloomy outlook for the Chinese economy and the strength of US oil inventories.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
Brent (ICE) (F4) Intraday May rise 1.45 %Pivot: 80.80
Our preference:
long positions above 80.80 with targets at 82.00 & 82.60 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
below 80.80 look for further downside with 80.20 & 79.50 as targets.
Comment:
the RSI calls for a bounce.
The oil market is closely watching the developments within OPEC+ as the group prepares for a virtual meeting on November 30 to discuss potential production cuts. This comes in the wake of a significant increase in US crude inventories and amid expectations of a Chinese stimulus that could impact demand.
WTI crude oil was trading at $76.50 on Friday, as OPEC+ confirmed it would hold a virtual meeting next Wednesday to deliberate on production strategies. The group, including key player Saudi Arabia, is contemplating maintaining its current output cut of 1 million barrels per day into the next year. This decision is influenced by recent declines in oil prices, and there are discussions about the possibility of further reductions by OPEC+ members.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected surge in US crude inventories, with an increase of 8.7 million barrels for the week ending November 17. This figure starkly contrasts with market expectations, which had predicted a much smaller rise of just 0.9 million barrels.
The anticipation of a Chinese economic stimulus targeting real estate firms, such as Country Garden Holdings, has been factored into market sentiments. Given China's significant role as a consumer in the oil market, such measures could help counteract the downward pressure on WTI prices.
Additionally, market participants are awaiting the upcoming release of US S&P Global PMI data. Forecasts indicate slight contractions in both Manufacturing and Services indices, which could further influence global oil demand and pricing dynamics.
The outcome of OPEC+'s meeting and the subsequent decisions on production levels will be critical for the direction of oil prices as the market heads into the final month of 2023.
brent UK Oilwell today we see no trends in chart , balance of power between bulls and bear
I expect short because price touched the top Range line
SL and TP is Not true ( just means short)
BCOUSD#Brent crude oil - H1
📣 Based on the chart structure in the 1-hour timeframe, if the resistance level around 83.85 is broken, one can consider buying with a target of 86.30.
⛔ Stop loss: 82.30
On the other hand, with the break of the 82.30 level, there is a potential for a price decline towards the 80.00 range.
⛔ Stop loss: 83.85
It's essential to perform your own analysis and consider other factors before making any trading decisions.
Possible idea OILGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
Crude Oil Correction - Bearish Scenario (4H)Brent Crude Oil Forecast 🛢️ TVC:UKOIL
Recent sessions saw a surge in Brent crude futures, hitting the top of a descending channel and undergoing huge correction currently. This paves the way for potential fall from 82.00 to 80 then 79.
The bearish trend remains strong as price got rejected from the 100-day moving average (4H timeframe). A break above 83 could signal bullish move.
Note: Keep an eye on unexpected movements due to Fed's meeting minutes and ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel.
Support lines: 80.00
Resistance lines: 83.00
Comment down below your thoughts about my analysis, Thank you!
UKOil BullishHere from my TA, I believe oil is pushing for highs yet again. All while playing from the daily timeframe. This is a move that will take a bit of time, My estimate would be after thanksgiving leading into the new week (Monday)
Oil ready for a bull run it has made the correction it needed to make, now just buying it hard, let's go
Anyone wants to invest with us, just reach out to us, we have the track record and constantly exapanding our team!
UK Brent 4H : Still trades at the bearish channel UK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures rose sharply in the past sessions, reaching the top of the descending channel and confirming the continuation of the dominance of the downward trend in the immediate term, paving the way for achieving additional gains starting at 80.00 and extending to 78.87.
Therefore the downward scenario will be remain valid and effective during coming period and the moving average 50 still support the price to decline , taking into account that stabilized above 82.11 will force the price to get out of bearish channel and will start a positive trades .
The expected trading range for today is between support 78.87 and resistance 82.11 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 80.00 , 78.87
resistance line : 82.11 , 83.05
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
A Reversal for Brent?There is a confluence of 0.618 Retracement Level, Several Trendlines, a Schiff Line, RSI in Overbought and a major moving average in this area so in my opinion the red box shown on the chart may be a potential reversal zone. Just wait for confirmation.
Good Luck!
