UKO USD SHORTHello everyone, I would like to share my next trade idea to go short on oil, hopefully my idea will be favorable and will result in profit taking between today and tomorrow, greetings.
UKOILSPOT trade ideas
Brent Crude Oil Price Hits the Highest Level Since 1 MayBrent Crude Oil Price Hits the Highest Level Since 1 May
Analysing the oil price on 19th June, we wrote that:
→ Amidst increasing demand for oil during the holiday season, Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that by the end of summer, the Brent price could rise to $86 per barrel with an upper limit around $90.
→ The price could reach the upper boundary of a narrowing triangle that originated in 2022-2023 – technically, this is a significant resistance level.
As the Brent crude oil price chart (XBR/USD) shows, the price has reached the upper boundary of the triangle since then. How will events unfold from here?
Technical analysis of the Brent crude oil price chart indicates that:
→ The price increase in June has formed an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ The resistance effect of the upper boundary of the large triangle has led to the A→B movement. The price quickly reached the median line of the blue channel, confirming seller activity above $87 per barrel.
The price decline at the end of last week was influenced not only by technical factors but also by fundamental ones – as Reuters reports, oil prices are falling amidst renewed ceasefire talks and a hostage release deal in the Gaza Strip.
It is possible that the Brent crude oil price could drop to the lower boundary of the blue channel, from where bulls may attempt to resume the upward movement. The following fundamental factors have the potential to support the bulls:
→ The impact of Hurricane Beryl on production and operations in the US. Major ports in Texas have shut down operations and vessel movements as Beryl continues to strengthen approaching the coast near Houston.
→ Breakdown of negotiations and the threat of escalation in the Middle East and other geopolitical factors.
→ Continuation of the holiday season.
Note that the lower boundary of the blue channel is reinforced by the $84 support level. Considering the upper boundary of the triangle, traders have reasons to believe that in July, a consolidation pattern could form on the XBR/USD chart between the $84-$87 levels.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent - Had EnoughBrent had enough with a triangle to complete B from its correction
seems we're heading to play wave C to complete the correction
92.15 will invalidate the pattern
UKOIL JULY 2024 WEEK 2 OUTLOOK -
Daily - looks great for longs.
Origin - we have opened inside VA. similar to GJ, once price holds above POC, we are good to drop down to trigger TF and look for long entry.
Does oil need price correction?📊In the four-hour time frame, the trend of the price movement is upward, but due to the compression of the price movement and increasing selling pressure, if the upward trend is broken, the price will move downwards and the price stabilizes below the range of 85.5 units, the price may fall to the range of 83.5 units🎯, and in the case of strength, the range of 81.0 units 🎯 🎯 .
📊Otherwise, the possibility of price increase up to the range of 90.0 units.
Elements & Focus of Attention on Brent Oil | London Session - 02Key indicators on Trade Set Up in general;
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set Up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Within a 100K Account Balance the split on Trade & Risk Management = 1/10% - 1/20% margin as Excution Range, to set up an Order Entry and select per Trade on Average, to avoid any drawdown hit regarding to Stop Loss & to execute risk on Mangement Specifics. Trail Stop efforts are a Focus of Attention to the set up in general when Volatile Price Action is involved, mainly because of the Intraday Scalp Position Tool on behalf on the Trade Plan in general.
Elements & Focus of Attention on Brent Oil | London Session - 02-07-2024 - Opening Range
# Overall Bias - 4H Time Frame
- Structure Eminent | Impulsive Contraction
# Market Cap - 4H Time Frame
- Confluence Set Up | Session | Time Frame Entry
# Backtest | Trade Mark - 15 Minutes Time Frame
- Bullish & Bearish Order Block
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management on Demand, specifics are essential like applied;
* Buy Push | Sell Push Set Up
* Trail Stop & Take Profit / aim big(Price action moves slow)
* Directional movement
* High probalility move(High Volume)
Active Session on Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
* Asian(Ranging) - London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Brent Crude year ahead 2024Interesting pattern here!!, can the world push for a once a year environmental lockdown of a couple of weeks? If they get their way we might just see this pattern plays out.
Do your year ahead analysis to get an idea of possible turning points. We make use of a weekly timeframe to analyze the year ahead, breaking 2024 up in to 4 quarters. From here we move down to lower timeframe for microscopic analysis and trade entries on lower timeframe. Higher timeframe trendline, speedlines, Fibonacci or Pivot Points remain longer in play. To learn more get our website link on our main profile.
Saudi Arabia delivers a major blow to the dollar!Oil prices have shown steady growth from $76 to $85 per barrel of Brent crude (#BRENT) since the beginning of June. This rise is driven by seasonal factors: high consumer activity during the summer driving season, increased demand from the transportation sector, and higher electricity consumption for air conditioning.
However, a more significant development in the oil market is the expiration of the 50-year-old Security Agreement between Saudi Arabia and the USA, signed in 1974, and Riyadh's refusal to renew it.
The agreement facilitated economic cooperation and military needs between the two nations, stabilizing the situation after the crises of the 1970s. The US benefited from oil at favorable prices, while Saudi Arabia gained a technological ally and wealth. Crucially, this agreement mandated that Saudi Arabia sell its oil exclusively for dollars, a restriction that no longer applies. This system greatly strengthened the dollar's position as the dominant global reserve currency by creating worldwide demand for dollars directly tied to oil transactions. Many have called this the "deal of the century."
Abandoning the petrodollar system could, in the long run, weaken the dollar's influence and impact US financial markets, reducing Washington's ability to accumulate national debt and profit from exports. Countries like China, Russia, Iran, and India are increasingly settling trades in their national currencies. By 2023, already 20% of global oil was being purchased without using the dollar. Now, Saudi Arabia can sell oil for any currencies or assets, including the yuan, gold, and even cryptocurrencies, which could significantly boost the value of these assets over time.
FreshForex analysts recommend closely monitoring changes in settlement schemes in the energy markets. Trading instruments like Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Gold (XAUUSD), and the US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USDCNH) might become very profitable investments in the future .
Invest ahead of the curve!
BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis
On D1, after the impulse, the price broke through the previous highs with the 1st wave, which subsequently may indicate a potential correction within 40-50% of the impulse.
On H4, a 3-wave structure is forming as the movement continues. You can limit yourself to a short stop at the level of breaking through the local second wave
To cancel, form the 3rd wave in the opposite direction.
Goals: 82.42 - 81.52 - 80.08
UKOIL shortJust added another one short because the market gived beautiful correction aka discount.
Double ABC pattern, clear scenario and clear target level.
What a symphony.
BUY Brent crude oil for uptrend continuation STOP LOSS : 83.8BUY Brent crude oil for uptrend continuation
STOP LOSS : 83.84
There is a strong trend on the daily time frame and all that have happened in the past days was just consolidation ( or trend pull back before continuation) .....
The daily time frame is showing strength continuation from this level of support and resistance so we are looking for the trend to push forward from here .....
TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything
Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with…….trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here
Buy order on Brent triggered 1hr chart bias from previous day is bullish, with price currently sitting on top of a demand zone , and a 76.8 on the Fibonacci retracement which can provide a 1: 3 R:R and a target of 6% only risking 2%.
UKOIL JUNE 2024 WEEK 4 OUTLOOK -
Daily - Interesting gap down to POC on oil this morning. this gap is highly likely to be filled by today itself. (got a 15M zone that needs to be held if it has to fill the gap). anyways, it looks good for longs as long as price holds above this POC.
Origin - decent volume factor in favor of buyers last week. but looks like this will be a no trade week for me as we have POC above and no room to trade between CPR and POC like we did with AUDUSD. so no trading oil for me this week.
Brent Crude Oil Weekly Chart Analysis (June 2024)Price Action:
The current price of Brent Crude Oil is $84.15, with a recent high of $86.04 and a low of $81.81.
The price has shown a recent upward movement, indicating a potential bullish trend as it has increased by 1.59% in the last week.
Volume Analysis:
The volume is 259.537K, which indicates the level of trading activity. The volume does not show a significant spike, suggesting moderate trading interest at the current price levels.
Technical Indicators:
Stochastic RSI:
The Stochastic RSI is at 41.60 (blue line) and 26.77 (orange line), which are relatively low. This suggests that the asset might be in the early stages of a potential uptrend, with room to move higher before becoming overbought.
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI is at 45.54, which is below the neutral level of 50. This indicates that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, providing a balanced view with a slight bearish bias.
Trend Analysis:
The long-term trend shows a series of higher highs and higher lows from the start of the chart in 2022 until mid-2023. However, from mid-2023, the trend shifted to lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish phase.
The recent price movement suggests a possible trend reversal or at least a correction in the bearish trend as the price has started to move upwards.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support:
Immediate support is around $78.50, which is a recent low.
Resistance:
Immediate resistance is around $86.00, which is the recent high.
Major resistance can be observed at $92.00, where previous price action has shown resistance.
The chart shows a potential shift from a bearish trend to a bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break above the immediate resistance at $86.00 for confirmation of continued upward movement.
The RSI and Stochastic RSI indicate room for further upward movement before entering overbought territory.
Monitoring volume trends for confirmation of sustained buying interest will be crucial for validating any potential bullish reversal.
In summary, while the long-term trend has been bearish, recent price action and technical indicators suggest a potential bullish correction. Traders should look for confirmation above resistance levels and increased volume to support the continuation of the upward movement.
XBR, is starting to BURN "UP"! MASSIVE ascend coming!XBR accumulators is close to winning the battle. The last few days of continued net buying has pushed the price significantly higher with so much gusto and strength.
Price surged a weighty 2.2% last trading day.
On weekly histogram, higher lows has been recorded conveying of a long term trend shift. Pricewise, XBR is moving thinly at the current range -- closer to breaking out the descending trendline. It is now sitting at 5.0 FIB level - a major order block support where most buyers converge.
Based on the recent price action and volume surge expect some significant price growth from the present price range.
Spotted at 78.00
TAYOR
Safeguard capital always.
OIL. Time to collect a little bit into the bucket :)In my short-term trade, the level of 79.5-80 USD will be very important. I am looking for strong support here with the potential for an upward impulse of 11% to the area of 89.3 USD. This area is an extremely important point for further play and the situation must be closely monitored.
When the price shows significant weakness, a quick drop to a new LOW - around 60 USD will be possible.
If the price breaks the level of 89.3 USD with a decisive move, we will probably see an increase under 110 USD - around ATH.
At 110 dollars, two situations are possible:
a) we break it with a decisive move to 133-135 USD, a small correction to 110 and further upward movement
b) we return to 89.3 USD and from there we build an upward movement
Generally, no matter what happens, I assume that in this edition we will see prices in the range of 200-770-315 USD in the future.
Brent Crude Oil Price Hits Highest Since 1 MayBrent Crude Oil Price Hits Highest Since 1 May
As the chart shows, yesterday the price of Brent crude oil rose to $84.40, which is the highest level since 1 May 2024.
The demand for Brent crude oil was driven by the following factors:
The holiday season and increasing consumption from automotive and aviation transport. We wrote about this in the Brent market analysis on 11 June. Let us recall that Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that by the end of the summer, the price of Brent may rise to $86 per barrel with a “ceiling” around $90.
Geopolitical tension, namely:
→ Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refining bases.
→ The likelihood of escalation in the Middle East. For instance, Reuters reports that Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned of an impending “total war” with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran.
Meanwhile, the technical analysis of the Brent crude oil price chart shows that:
→ The price continues to be within the narrowing triangle (shown in blue), which we wrote about on 11 June, but has risen above its median, approximately at the $83.0 level.
→ Additionally, the price is consolidating above the descending trend line (shown in red).
→ The fact that today the Brent price is pulling back after setting yesterday's high appears to be a false bullish breakout of the 29 May peak.
It is possible that, by forming a bull trap, the price will retreat to the median around the $83 level. Additional support could be provided at $81.66, where the bulls found support before breaking through the red line.
However, with the prospect of an increasingly hot summer, the price may continue to rise to the upper boundary of the channel, thereby confirming the Brent crude oil price forecast by Goldman Sachs analysts.
Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads. Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent, It's Been Real Bruh - The Last Brent Chart You'll NeedThe macro formation of Brent's chart paints a potential dismal long term picture. Considering scientific estimations that the earth will run out of oil near 2050, maybe its not so farfetched after all?
My previous oil charts with macro bullish outlook should be considered null.
BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis
Oil continues to move to H4, a triangle is formed; when it is broken, we can locally expect further movement to the levels of 85.92. Globally, the price may break through level 85, from which we can expect a correction and then look for an entry point to continue moving to levels to update levels 92 - 97
Local target 83.62 - 85.92
Target 83.62 - 85.92
The Petrodollar Agreement and the Future of OilThe term "petrodollar" refers to the value of oil bought with U.S. dollars. This concept was founded in 1974 when Saudi Arabia and the United States made an agreement to price Saudi oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars. This arrangement had significant effects on the global economy and politics.
This system increased the global demand for U.S. dollars. Oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia committed to selling oil only in dollars, forcing other countries needing oil to acquire U.S. dollars for transactions. This continuous demand strengthened the value of the dollar in global markets.
This system also led to the widespread use of the dollar. Since oil is a strategic commodity used worldwide, the need for dollars to buy oil pushed countries to hold large reserves of dollars. This includes central banks and major companies that rely on importing oil to meet their needs.
Due to the increased demand and continuous use of the dollar, its value became stable. When there is a high and steady demand for a currency, its price fluctuations decrease, making it a stable and reliable currency for international trade. This stability enhanced the dollar's position as the world's main reserve currency.
Why Is the World Watching Now?
Recent geopolitical developments and changes in global alliances have sparked discussions about Saudi Arabia's role in the petrodollar system. Major economies like China and the European Union are emerging as key players in global oil markets, and there are serious and successful attempts to price oil in their currencies.
The BRICS aims to launch a new global economic system, and the idea of pricing oil in non-dollar currencies has been proposed. This idea is not just a theoretical study but is based on tangible real-world evidence. After the Russian war on Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions from the U.S. and the West, Russia announced it would sell its oil in rubles under certain conditions. In March 2023, a deal was made for Russia to sell oil to India, with payment in rubles. In the same month, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to consider exporting part of its oil to China in yuan.
The United Arab Emirates took the first step in this field by pricing gas in Chinese yuan. Last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the pricing of a shipment of Emirati gas in Chinese currency. The UAE did not immediately announce whether it would continue pricing part of its liquefied gas exports in yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or if it was just testing the global market's reaction to this move.
Benefits for the UAE and China
For the UAE, the benefits include diversifying revenue sources and reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar. This move strengthens economic ties with China, the world's second-largest economy, opening up more opportunities for cooperation and joint investments. It also represents a strategic step towards achieving greater flexibility in international financial and trade dealings.
For China, this move enhances the yuan's position as an international currency, contributing to reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade. By pricing oil and gas in yuan, China can secure energy supplies with its local currency, reducing currency conversion costs and helping to enhance internal financial stability.
Impact on the Dollar
A crucial point is the global push towards renewable energy and the potential decrease in oil demand, which can significantly affect the dynamics of the petrodollar system. As the world seeks to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, the importance of oil—and thus the petrodollar—may diminish in the global economy.
Additionally, the changing political landscape, including shifts in U.S. foreign policies and Saudi Arabia's strengthening relations with other global powers, may lead to a reevaluation of the petrodollar arrangement. These political shifts might prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to consider using alternative currencies in oil trade.
Vision for Diversification
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aim to diversify their economies away from oil dependence to achieve long-term economic sustainability and reduce risks associated with global oil price fluctuations.
Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" aims to diversify income sources and develop new economic sectors such as tourism, entertainment, industry, technology, and education. This program aims to create new job opportunities, attract foreign investments, and achieve comprehensive and sustainable economic growth.
The UAE focuses on developing sectors such as tourism, aviation, trade, finance, technology, real estate, education, and renewable energy. Through this vision, the UAE seeks to strengthen its position as a global hub in various fields, which it has largely succeeded in so far, and reduce its reliance on oil as a main part of its economy.
In summary, the world is closely watching Saudi Arabia and its allies because any changes in their approach to oil trade and currency preferences can have widespread effects on global financial markets, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and international economic relations.
BRENT. Weekly trading levels 10.06.2024 - 14.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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