UKOILSPOT trade ideas
Brent Oil Price Drops Over 3.5% in Two DaysBrent Oil Price Drops Over 3.5% in Two Days
As indicated by the XBR/USD chart, the price per barrel opened at $80.28 on Friday and closed at $77.27 on Monday. Moreover, early Tuesday trading also shows a downward trend.
Bearish sentiment in the market is being influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the easing of tensions in the Middle East. According to media reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a proposal aimed at resolving disagreements between Israel and Hamas.
Additionally, ANZ Bank analysts point to a reduction in petrol consumption in China due to the increasing use of electric vehicles.
Could Brent crude oil prices continue to fall further?
Technical analysis of the XBR/USD chart indicates that the price is approaching a key support level (shown in yellow) that dates back to 2023. This raises concerns, especially given the bearish indicators:
→ The recovery from B to C has retraced approximately 50% of the A to B downward impulse;
→ The formation of peak C has seen false bullish breakouts of previous local highs;
→ The bearish candles on Friday and Monday have broad bodies and closed near their lows, indicating a lack of demand (or effective selling pressure).
Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the bears might attempt to breach the critical support level, potentially leading to a new low for August.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Brent Movement 20 Aug 2024Hi All,
My forecast for brent is still bearish and heading to target price 75.96.
However it has created a support line and possible to retrace back to 77.5 before heading further down or be more bullish and head to 78.1
Prepare for 2 direction.
Short Setup: Strategic Oil Sell Opportunity Amid Market WeaknessWe identified on Friday a prime short opportunity in oil as market conditions signaled potential downside. Utilizing a multi-timeframe analysis, this setup aligns with bearish momentum on the 1-hour and 30-minute charts, targeting key support levels.
Volume Profile Part 1: The Essentials
Welcome to the first instalment of our three-part series on Volume Profile Analysis – a technique that has the potential to add a new dimension to your price action trading. Let’s start by exploring the fundamentals of Volume Profile Analysis, its essential components, and why it is a valuable tool in your trading arsenal.
Understanding Volume Profile Analysis
Volume Profile Analysis reveals the distribution of trading volume at different price levels over a given period. Unlike traditional volume charts, which aggregate volume based on time intervals, Volume Profile focuses on how volume is distributed across price levels. This method provides a unique view into where significant trading activity occurs, helping traders identify key support and resistance levels.
Types of Volume Profile Indicators
Whilst there are many Volume Profile indicators available on TradingView, our series will specifically focus the following two:
1. Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP)
• Description: The VRVP indicator displays volume distribution within the visible range of your chart. It helps in identifying high and low volume areas based on the currently visible price range.
• Use: Ideal for understanding the volume distribution over larger time periods. The indicator is highly flexible as it can pinpoint pockets of high and low volume across the visible range on your chart and any specified timeframe.
VRVP Indicator: FTSE 100 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Session Volume Profile High Definition (SVP HD)
• Description: The SVP HD indicator provides detailed volume profiles within specified trading sessions. It adjusts the level of detail according to the zoom level of the chart, offering a high-definition view of intraday volume activity.
• Use: Useful for analysing intraday volume activity with a focus on specific trading sessions. It paints a picture of how a markets volume is changing day by day.
SVP HD Indicator: FTSE 100 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Key Components of Volume Profile Analysis
Value Area (VA): The Value Area represents the price range where approximately 70% of the total trading volume occurs. It indicates the range within which most trades are concentrated. It reflects market balance and identifies where the majority of trading activity has taken place.
High Volume Node (HVN): HVNs are price levels with a high amount of trading activity, indicating areas of significant price congestion and liquidity. HVN’s have the potential to act as strong support or resistance due to its historical trading volume.
Point of Control (POC): The Point of Control is the price level with the highest trading volume during the specified period. It often represents the “fair price” where the most trades have occurred. POC serves as a key reference point for potential support or resistance, showing where market consensus has been achieved.
Low Volume Node (LVN): LVNs are price levels with relatively low trading activity, representing areas with minimal price congestion.
VRVP Indicator: Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Why Volume Profile Analysis is Essential
Volume Profile Analysis offers several key advantages that can deepen your understanding of the markets and improve your decision-making process.
1. Identify Key Price Levels:
One of the most significant benefits of Volume Profile Analysis is its ability to highlight areas of significant trading volume. These areas are crucial because they reveal where large amounts of buying and selling have occurred, often acting as strong support and resistance levels. By identifying these key price levels, traders can better anticipate potential price reversals or continuations. For instance, a price level with high volume suggests a consensus among market participants, making it a likely candidate for future support or resistance. This information allows traders to set more accurate stop-loss orders, identify strategic entry points, and place profit targets with greater confidence. We’ll delve deeper into how to do this in Part2!
2. Reveals Market Sentiment:
Volume Profile doesn’t just show where trading activity has occurred; it also provides insights into the underlying market sentiment. By examining the distribution of volume at various price levels, traders can infer whether the market is dominated by bullish or bearish sentiment. For example, a concentration of volume at higher price levels might indicate strong buying interest, suggesting that the market is bullish. Conversely, a significant volume at lower price levels could indicate selling pressure and a bearish market. Understanding market sentiment through Volume Profile helps traders gauge the strength of current trends and spot potential turning points where the sentiment might shift.
3. Improves Trade Decisions:
Armed with the insights provided by Volume Profile Analysis, traders can make more informed decisions about their trades. By understanding where significant trading activity has occurred, traders can better assess the validity of price levels, decide when to enter or exit trades, and manage risk more effectively. For example, if a trader sees that the price is approaching a high-volume node (HVN), they might anticipate a slowdown in price movement or a potential reversal, adjusting their strategy accordingly. On the other hand, low-volume nodes (LVNs) can indicate areas where price might move quickly, offering opportunities for breakout trades.
Conclusion
In essence, Volume Profile Analysis equips traders with a clearer picture of the market landscape, enabling them to make decisions that are grounded in a deeper understanding of price action and volume dynamics.
In Part 2, we’ll uncover how to identify hidden market levels that aren’t immediately obvious on traditional price charts. We’ll explore the deeper layers of market structure and learn how to apply these insights to your price action trading.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Brent Oil - Gartley Pattern in PlayBrent oil seems to be in the process of playing harmonic gartley pattern. Price is expected to rebound from potential reversal zone. This zone has been high volume zone in the past which adds confluence to the reversal pattern.
BRENT OIL - Breakout From Bull Flag will lead to Further UpsidesBrent oil seems to be forming a bull flag. MACD line in positive territory also suggests bullish tendency may remain intact. Long positions may be considered once breakout occurs from bull flag.
Brent’s Bullish Potential Hinges on Support LevelsHello Everyone,
Brent has found support, and the 1-month support structure appears sufficient to drive the price higher at this point. However, this does not rule out the possibility of the price testing lower pivot points (PP), as the 1-year PP has acted as resistance so far. A stable position above the 1-year PP is needed for a solid bullish confirmation.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Highs and Lows Move Together: A Key Insight for Retail Traders█ Understanding Daily Highs and Lows in Trading
When it comes to trading, understanding the dynamics of daily price movements is essential. Daily highs and lows, which represent the highest and lowest prices of an asset within a single trading day, are more than just numbers—they provide valuable insights into market behavior, volatility, and potential trading opportunities.
█ What Are Daily Highs and Lows?
Daily Highs: The highest price an asset reaches during a trading day.
Daily Lows: The lowest price an asset hits during the same period.
Price Range: The difference between the daily high and low, which gives a measure of the day's volatility.
These metrics are crucial for traders because they not only reflect the volatility but also highlight the turning points in the market. A wide price range indicates high volatility, while a narrow range suggests the opposite.
█ Insights from Research
Research shows that daily highs and lows are not just random occurrences—they are statistically significant and can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. For example, models that analyze the relationship between daily highs, lows, and the price range can outperform simple predictions based on past prices alone.
⚪ Highs and Lows as Important Levels:
The daily high is the highest price that an assets reaches in a day, and the daily low is the lowest price. These points are important because they often act like barriers in the market. If the price approaches the daily high, it might struggle to go higher, like hitting a ceiling. If it can’t break through, it might start to fall back down. Similarly, when the price gets close to the daily low, it might find support, like hitting a floor, and start rising again.
⚪ Market Reactions:
When the price reaches these highs or lows, it often reacts strongly. For instance, if the price hits a high but then drops, it suggests that traders think the price shouldn’t go higher, leading to a possible reversal. On the other hand, if the price keeps pushing against a high and finally breaks through, it could signal the start of a new upward trend.
In simple terms, the highs and lows act like important checkpoints in the market. Watching how prices behave around these levels can give traders clues about what might happen next.
█ Key Findings
⚪ Daily Highs and Lows Move Together:
The study found that the highest and lowest prices of oil each day are connected and tend to move together over time. This connection means that if one changes, the other usually does too. For retail traders, this suggests that tracking these levels can provide important clues about where the market might be heading next.
⚪ Price Ranges Indicate Volatility:
The difference between the daily high and low (known as the price range) is a strong indicator of how volatile the market is. A large range means the market is very active and prices are swinging widely. For traders, this could mean more opportunities to profit, but also more risk. Conversely, a small range indicates a calmer market with less movement.
⚪ Better Forecasting Models:
The study shows that by understanding the relationship between daily highs, lows, and the price range, traders can use more accurate models to predict future prices. These models outperform simpler methods that many traders might be using. For retail traders, this means there are better tools available that can help them make more informed decisions and potentially increase their chances of success.
█ Daily Highs and Lows Move Together
Daily highs and lows are connected and influence each other. This means that the highest and lowest prices of an asset during a trading day tend to move in relation to one another.
Imagine you're tracking the price of crude oil. On Monday, the highest price of the day was $80 per barrel, and the lowest was $75 per barrel. On Tuesday, the price went up, with the high being $88 and the low being $79. What the research found is that these daily highs and lows tend to follow a pattern or move in sync with each other over time.
The increase in both the high and low suggests that overall market sentiment is positive, and traders are willing to pay more, even at the lowest prices of the day.
█ What It Actually Means
⚪ Connection Between Highs and Lows:
If the daily high price increases, the daily low price often increases too, and vice versa. This doesn’t mean they are the same price, but rather that they tend to trend in the same direction. For instance, if the market is generally moving up (bullish), both the daily high and low prices will usually increase from one day to the next.
⚪ Why They Move Together:
This movement happens because the factors driving the price up or down (like supply and demand, market sentiment, or external news) impact both the high and low of the day. If there’s strong buying pressure, it will push the daily high up and also raise the floor, or daily low, as sellers adjust their expectations.
█ What It Means for Retail Traders
For new traders, understanding and using daily highs and lows can be a game-changer. These metrics offer a glimpse into market sentiment, help identify trading opportunities, and can form the foundation of robust trading strategies. By incorporating the analysis of daily highs and lows into your trading routine, you can make more informed decisions and improve your chances of success in the markets.
Understanding that daily highs and lows move together can help you predict market trends. If you see a pattern where both the highs and lows are steadily rising, it’s a sign that the market is in an uptrend, and you might decide to buy, expecting prices to keep climbing. Conversely, if both are falling, it might indicate a downtrend, suggesting it’s a good time to sell or avoid buying.
█ Reference
He, A.W.W., Kwok, J.T.K., & Wan, A.T.K. (2010). An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1499–1506.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Where will Brent price Go?? 14 Aug 2024Hi All,
At this moment we have put the price action in a zone of support and resistance. so this is my no trade zone area until one of the lines are broken.
The overall direction is still down unless resistance has been broken.
Target price for down is 79.9.
Good luck
Brent’s Bear Trap Sparks Relief RallyBrent crude has surged more than 8% from last week’s lows, marking a significant recovery in the oil market. Let’s dive into the technical and fundamental factors driving this rally and identify the key price levels to watch in the coming days.
Geopolitical Tensions: The Catalyst Behind Brent’s Resurgence
A key driving factor behind Brent’s recent resurgence has been escalating tensions in the Middle East, sparking fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt global oil supplies. The US Defence Department’s decision to deploy a guided missile submarine to the region underscores the escalating stakes, with Iran and its allies threatening retaliation. Such a scenario raises the prospect of US sanctions on Iranian crude, which could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market. This potential supply shock has jolted oil prices higher, as traders brace for the possibility of a significant tightening in global crude supplies.
Technical Analysis: A Bear Trap Ignites Breakout
Daily Timeframe:
Last week’s price action saw Brent crude execute a classic bear trap—a scenario where prices briefly dip below a key support level, drawing in sellers, only to reverse sharply within a couple of sessions. This false breakout, or ‘fakeout,’ caught short-sellers off guard and sparked a wave of buying as prices rebounded, breaking above the descending trendline that had capped Brent’s price action throughout July.
This breakout signals a notable shift in short-term momentum from bearish to bullish. However, Brent is now approaching the 200-day simple moving average, a closely watched technical level that can act as resistance.
Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Hourly Timeframe:
Zooming in on the hourly chart, Brent’s bullish momentum is evident, with prices forming steep ascending trendlines that underscore the strength of the recent rally. However, this momentum is now facing a significant test as Brent approaches a short-term resistance zone formed by the swing highs of late July and early August. A decisive break above this resistance would not only reaffirm the bullish trend but also coincide with a break above the 200-day moving average—a key technical signal that could attract more buyers and pave the way for a move toward the early July highs.
On the other hand, if Brent fails to clear this resistance, the market could see a retracement, potentially revisiting the levels around last week’s bear trap. This area will be crucial for traders to monitor, as it could serve as a strong support zone in the event of a pullback.
Brent Crude Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Rising Oil: OPEC Adjusts Demand and Global Conflicts
The oil market has been caught between two opposing forces. OPEC has revised down its demand expectations, citing a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which has put downward pressure on prices. However, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East have added to uncertainty, pushing prices higher.
Brent has surpassed $80 per barrel, influenced by conflicts in Kursk, Ukraine, and in the Middle East, where the confrontation between Israel and Iran has raised tensions. In addition, a possible reduction in U.S. oil production has been noted, adding further pressure to the market.
Currently, the RSI is in its mid-range at 52.08%. The Check Point (POC) of $82 was reached yesterday. US production, energy and trade data, as well as Red Book and crude oil data, will be key in assessing the impact on West Texas and Brent prices this afternoon.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Brent Forecast 9/8/2024Hi All,
Today is Friday, normally not expecting a big move from oil, however we do have some target prices ready and prepared for a move.
Since the overall price action is bullish, we expect target prices 79.2 and 79.6 to be hit today or next week when it breaks above the resistance line.
When the buy volume is not there, we can expect a retracement when it can break the orange support line to 78.1 and lower when there is strong volume.
Have an enjoyable weekend!
Brent Oil - Confluence of Rising Wedge and Divergence The formation of rising wedge pattern at resistance zone is hinting at forthcoming bearing move. Formation of divergence on Awesome Oscillator can be taken as an added confluence.
Crude Oil Rises: Middle East Tensions and Falling US InventoriesOil prices have risen for the third consecutive day, driven by rising tensions in the Middle East and a significant decline in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude rose to $78.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $75.39. Concerns intensified after the assassination of militant leaders in the Middle East, generating speculation about possible retaliation that could disrupt oil supplies. In Libya, the declaration of force majeure at the Sharara oil field due to protests has added pressure to the market. In the U.S., crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, well above expectations, indicating strong underlying demand. Analysts at ANZ and Citi suggest Brent could range between $80 and $85, driven by geopolitical and climate risks, and a cautious investor stance.
On the Brent chart, the most traded zone is between $84.10 and $80.88. After a double indecision at the beginning of the week, a price rally was seen yesterday. Today, the market may show signs of a return to the mean. The RSI, still in the oversold zone at 39.50%, and the POC at $82 suggest possible moves toward the mean, with a high zone at $95 and a low zone at $71.47.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Brent Oil Analyst Forecast 8/8/24Hi All,
Sharing my daily forecast for Brent, based on the technical, brent is more bullish now and has the potential to hit 78.7 and 79.2 when there is buying volume in the market.
When not, price will retract to 77.5 and when the sells are strong we can see price also hit 77. I have ghosted in candles as an illustration of where the price may go.
Brent Oil Movement & Target PriceHi All,
After a slow start to the move, price of Brent is crabbing along in the 75 - 76 range.
It may continue to crab along for the remaining of the day until one of the support and resistance price are crossed.
Currently looking at the chart, we can see brent hitting 77.04 after the price action earlier in the day it hit the bearish price of 75.75.
The oil price is probably facing a very sharp fall very soon.Hi all,
This chart for the oil price (Brent Spot) speaks for itself, so there is probably no need to write much more here.
It is worth writing here that it looks very bearish for the oil price going forward now, and as this chart for Brent Spot looks here.
Everything is connected, and the stock markets have fallen sharply on fears of a recession, and the price of oil will be hit hard if it turns out to be a recession.
So, as always, it will be very exciting to follow the development going forward for both the stock exchanges worldwide, the oil price, etc.
Maybe correction that will extend to 2030 and beyoind. In 2023, China faced a demographic turning point that could reshape its economic landscape And the global economy and may extend to 2030.
Brent Target Price updateHi All, the minimum bearih target price has been hit as shared yesterday. For more bearish move it the price action has to go below 75.
BRENT CRUDE OIL (XBRUSD): Massive Breakout↪️BRENT fell below an important daily support cluster and has now turned into resistance.
It is likely that a bearish trend will persist, with the next support level at 93.24.
Brent Crude Oil Prices Form Inverse H&S PatternTensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, and Brent crude oil prices appear to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. For this bullish pattern to activate, the price needs to break above $81.69. If this level is breached, the pattern suggests a potential 4.69% gain, with prices possibly reaching $85.54. However, it's still early to determine the optimal placement for a stop-loss order, as the pattern may take some time to fully develop.
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Brent Crude Oil #Brent Crude Oil - H1 Analysis
📣 Based on the 1-hour chart structure, a break above the descending trendline at 80.07 could be a buying opportunity with a target of 82.00.
⛔️ Stop Loss: 79.00
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 79.00 level, a decline towards 77.80 could be anticipated.
⛔️ Stop Loss: 80.07
