Oil price crush in 2025?It looks like the oil will crush at the end of 2025. There are several similar fractals on the chart and all of them end up with a price crush. What could be a trigger? I don't know, will see.
UKOUSD trade ideas
Down for Brent?Brent on the daily chart has everything going for it to head lower. We could do with a close under the 21 & 9 EMA. Should this happen ill be going short.
Its under the 100 and 200 EMA and it has LH & LL and looks like its about to put in another LH soon.
Ill be going short as per the above at a 1:1.5 RTW If we get the close under.
Brent (UKOIL) Sees Downward Movement: Caution AdvisedHello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT (UKOIL) has experienced another downward movement. If the trendline remains intact, this could mark the low before a potential rebound. However, extreme caution is advised at this stage, as all indicators suggest a continuation of the bearish trend, which is trend-confirmed. A confirmation from the 1D PP would be required before considering holding a long position.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
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Mixed Stocks: Trump, Chinese Stimulus and German CrisisGlobal stock markets presented a volatile day on Thursday, with mixed trends in both Asia and Europe. Several factors have influenced this behavior, from Donald Trump's recent victory in the United States to the possible economic stimulus measures in China and the growing political instability in Germany.
Asian Markets: Caution After Trump Euphoria
In Asia today, Thursday, the initial momentum from Trump's victory, which had driven Wall Street indexes to record highs, began to lose steam. While Japanese stocks managed to rise slightly, benefiting from the depreciation of the yen that boosted exporters such as Toyota, Chinese stock markets showed less dynamism. The FTSE A50 index (Ticker AT:CHINAA50) closed up +3.69% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (Ticker AT: HKIND) managed a 3.58% rally. However, fears of harsher U.S. tariffs towards China, promised by Trump, are keeping a cautious mood in the region.
Attention is now on China's National People's Congress, where stimulus measures to sustain the economy are expected to be announced. Beijing has already congratulated Trump on his victory and maintains an open dialogue with the US, although concerns about bilateral trade persist.
Europe: Political Uncertainty in Germany and a Drop in Air France-KLM
In Europe, indices started the session with mixed results amid growing political instability in Germany and mixed quarterly reports in the corporate sector. Germany's DAX advanced 0.7%, while the UK's FTSE 100 (Ticker AT: UK100)rose 0.2%, and France's CAC 40 (Ticker AT:FRA40) fell 0.1%.
German politics have been a focus of concern after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the collapse of the coalition government and the calling of a confidence motion in January. This situation has raised expectations of early elections and could affect economic stability in Europe's largest economy.
On the other hand, Air France-KLM (Ticker AT: AF.FR) shares suffered a 10% drop after presenting a lower than expected operating performance, affected by the costs derived from the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris and higher unit costs. The situation has added pressure to the markets, while other sectors, such as home delivery with Delivery Hero (DHER.GE), showed solid revenue results, slightly boosting its shares.
Oil and Dollar on Investors' Radar
Oil prices stabilized following the recent rise in the dollar and the unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories. As investors consider the potential impact of a Trump administration on crude supplies from Iran and Venezuela, Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico is also disrupting oil production in the region, adding volatility to the commodity market.
On the technical side, Brent crude oil (Ticker AT: BRENT) started the European session continuing the downward pressure of the Asian session. It is currently trading at $75.56 a barrel. The value of the checkpoint is currently in the $75 zone, so the RSI confirms with 44.30% that the price is under some downward pressure. It is very likely that the value of both WTI (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) and Brent will remain in a sideways range and seek to test with its current bullish continuation pattern the $76.06 resistance throughout this and next week, as well as for WTI in the $72.43 zone.
In this context, the Fed's monetary policy and Chinese stimulus will be key to define the direction of global markets in the coming weeks, while European policy remains an element of uncertainty. In a context of limited crude oil production, it is possible that the stock could regain its shine in the direction of $80.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Potential trade setup on BRTUSDWe are looking at a short trade on BRTUSD based on the stretch strategy. There is trend and direction alignment with this trade. Trade has taken out the upper stretch but higher timeframes trend and direction is to the downside. We will take the trade with a higher probability towards opposite stretch level being taken out. We will exit the trade once range has been achieved.
Trader Order Details:
BRTUSD(Short)
E - 71.55
SL - 72.43
T - 70.40
We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
Brent - Oil waiting for new tensions?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its upward channel. At the bottom of the rising channel, which is also at the intersection with the demand zone, we will look for oil buying positions.
If the upward trend continues, it is possible to look for oil selling positions within the specified supply zone.
Israel plans to use U.S. military aid funds for purchasing new fighter jets. According to the Times of Israel, the United States has deployed additional F-15E fighters to the Middle East, especially to Jordan, due to a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
Iranian leaders have warned of a “punitive” attack in response to previous Israeli assaults. Additionally, reports indicate that the United States has sent several B-52 bombers and THAAD missile defense systems to the region.
Prolonged tensions in the Middle East could create significant risks for energy prices. Other upward risks include lower-than-expected North American oil production, increased competition for liquefied natural gas shipments, and higher-than-anticipated coal and natural gas consumption in Asia. Conversely, notable downward risks for energy prices also exist, particularly if the OPEC+ supply cuts end sooner than expected. This could lead to an oversupply of oil as well as slower-than-anticipated economic growth, including in China.
The World Bank, maintaining a bearish outlook on the energy sector, forecasts a 6% decline in oil prices in 2025 and a 2% decline in 2026. Although geopolitical uncertainties may generate market volatility, analysts clearly foresee downside risks for oil.
Citibank has projected that a second term for Donald Trump could exert downward pressure on oil prices through 2025, forecasting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel. Trump’s policies might reduce OPEC+ production and ease geopolitical tensions. These policies may also have mixed effects on global economic growth, potentially slowing global oil demand growth. However, the immediate impact on physical oil markets is expected to be limited.
BRENT: Oil Prices Down, but On the Road to RecoveryOil prices closed Friday with bearish corrections and yesterday's continuation continued, mainly related to the OPEC+ decision to postpone the production increase, as well as the more than possible supply disruptions in the United States. Brents price has discounted -5.83% from $75.89 to %71.42 yesterday at 17:00 Spanish time, confirmed by a highly oversold RSI. Since then indecision has been present in a sideways range that has not pierced $72, and currently RSI is at 35.82% so the room to regain the $74.50 area at the Check Point (POC) is ample. There must be a significant increase in volume to move in the indicated direction.
Key Factors: OPEC+ Decision and Weather Conditions in the U.S.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced that it will postpone its plans to increase production, maintaining the cuts of almost 6 million barrels per day that were established in the last two years. In addition, the threat of Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico caused evacuations of energy operations, which also supported prices. U.S. crude oil data will be released tomorrow, Wednesday.
Impact on Latin America
Storm Rafael represents a considerable risk to production in the Gulf of Mexico region, a key region for the energy industry in the United States and producing countries such as Mexico. The evacuation of some oil platforms is already affecting production and, consequently, global crude oil prices. For Mexico, a supply disruption could translate into additional revenue in the short term if prices continue to rise. However, it also means potential increases in the cost of importing oil derivatives, affecting energy-dependent consumers and sectors.
For Latin America, particularly Mexico, Argentina and Chile, stable oil prices can translate into lower energy import costs, which would help reduce inflationary pressures in their economies. In Brazil, one of the region's main oil producers, this context makes it easier to maintain export revenues without a significant escalation of domestic energy prices. In addition, China's expected economic growth, thanks to fiscal stimulus, could increase demand for other commodities in the region, benefiting both Brazil and other exporters of agricultural and mineral products.
Stimulus Expectations in China
Markets are looking forward to China's National People's Congress meeting, where the government is expected to announce stimulus measures to boost the economy. Projections point to an increase in fiscal spending by at least 10 trillion yuan, anticipating higher demand for oil in the world's top oil-importing country.
The market continues to monitor developments in the Middle East conflict, while Donald Trump's election victory has also influenced global financial sentiment, contributing to fluctuations in crude oil prices.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
XBRUSD (Brent Oil) | 04.11.2024SELL 74.40 | STOP 76.20 | TAKE 72.60 | The downward correction continues to develop. Volumes are currently increasing. If the assumption is correct, the asset price will fall to the 72.60 area. The critical stop-loss level for this scenario is 76.20.
Oil Prices Rise AgainOil prices have risen around 1 dollar in the Asian session and continued a rise of almost 2 dollars per barrel at the European opening, driven by reports of possible conflicts in the Middle East and the expectation of adjustments in crude oil production. The situation has generated uncertainty among investors, who are seeking protection in the face of instability in the energy market. We continue to see the same upward trend movement as yesterday, only in this case, looking at the one-hour candlesticks, it is clear that the effect of yesterday's inventory news had a really strong effect on crude oil. Currently BRENT (Ticker AT: BRENT) and WTI (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) are trading at $74.42 and $70.75 respectively. It would not be unusual to see a rally towards $75.85 and $72.20 as target prices respectively as this is the area of strong bearish pressure if we look at the delta indicator. Currently RSI is highly oversold at 74.44% so this bullish burst might not be overextended, and generate a price suppression to the POC zone at $74 which is the POC zone for BRENT and $69.70 for WTI respectively.
Tensions in the Middle East
Recent reports indicate that Iran may be planning an attack against Israel from Iraq, using drones and ballistic missiles. According to Israeli intelligence, this move could occur before the U.S. presidential election on November 5. These types of tensions tend to raise oil prices, as any escalation in the region could impact global energy supply.
Influence of OPEC+ and global production
Prices have also been supported by the possibility that OPEC+ may decide to postpone the December production increase, given weak demand conditions and rising global supply. Sources close to the organization indicated that this decision could be made next week to stabilize the market in a context of volatility.
Additional factors: U.S. elections and China's economy
The approaching U.S. presidential election adds another level of uncertainty, as the candidates have different positions towards Iran and Russia, which could affect the relationship with oil producers.
Meanwhile, in China, growth in manufacturing activity during October, driven by economic stimulus, suggests a potential increase in oil demand. This data reflects a recovery in the Chinese economy after several months of contraction in the sector, which could influence the global energy market.
Inventories and production in the United States
In the United States, gasoline inventories reached their lowest level in two years due to a growing demand and a drop in crude oil imports, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, the country reached a production record of 13.4 million barrels per day in August, which may contribute to supply stability in the short term.
In conclusion, the combination of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production policies and demand factors in the United States and China are driving oil prices higher. This trend is likely to continue depending on the evolution of these factors in the coming days.
Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
SHORT OIL (10% Profit from Current Prices)- BRENT started a Downward Trend since it Broke $75.13 creating lower highs and Lower lows
- Dollar is Clearly in an upward Trend
- Trumps policy is with increasing US Shale Oil production which is negative for price
- Monthly and Weekly Timeframes are all showing weakness
- Short at current Prices to Target liquidity around the $64.50
NEW IDEA FOR BRNT By examining the trend in the four-hour time frame, Brent oil can increase in price up to the resistance of $74.61, provided that it maintains the important support interval in the range of 70.91-71.99.
BRNT Bulls Gaining Momentum, Key Level at 75.059Hello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT recently tested its yearly low at 68.675 and its monthly low at 70.720, both of which have provided support. Confidence is growing, signaling a potential bullish reversal. The price is gradually transitioning from bearish to bullish territory. For the upside to continue, it must consistently stay above the 1M PP at 75.059. Confirmation is still required for sustained bullish momentum.
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
U.S. Demand and Uncertainty Drive Oil VolatilityThe oil market continues to show strong oscillations, influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuations in global demand. Recently, oil prices rose on the back of a surprise drop in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, suggesting stronger-than-expected demand for the fuel. In early Asian trading, Brent (Ticker AT: BRENT) was up 0.65% at USD 73.02 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) was up 0.63% at USD 69.04 per barrel. These increases reflect the positive impact of US demand and reduced crude imports, extending a momentum that drove both contracts up by more than 2% on Wednesday.
At the start of the European session, the market did not correct this rise, but some downward pressure is perceptible. Technical indicators show a strong trading zone around USD 72.30 for Brent and USD 68.55 for WTI, with the RSI balanced at 50%, suggesting that the market could consolidate in this zone as support before a possible rise towards the end of the week.
Geopolitical and Oversupply Effect
Since Iran's attack on Israel on October 1, crude oil prices have experienced remarkable volatility. In October, Brent went as high as almost 10% in just four days, reaching USD 80 before retreating following an Israeli bombing in Iran on October 26. This led to a significant drop in prices on Monday 28, where Brent fell by more than 4% to USD 71.42, while WTI lost more than 5% to USD 67.38.
This situation takes place in a context of oversupply, where gasoline inventories in the US (Ticker AT: GASOLZ2024) have fallen to two-year lows. Against a backdrop of low global demand, both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC have revised their demand forecasts for this year, mainly due to the economic slowdown in China. Despite the stimulus in the Chinese economy, demand remains weak, affecting crude oil consumption projections.
Short and Medium-Term Outlook
The market is also watching the possibility of OPEC+ postponing a 180,000 barrels per day production increase planned for December in order to stabilize prices. In parallel, the upcoming U.S. presidential election and expectations of further stimulus in China could influence oil demand in the short term, the projection of its movement a price range for oil between USD 70 and USD 85 in the medium term.
This scenario reflects the complexities of the current market, where supply, demand and geopolitical events will continue to drive fluctuations in crude oil prices.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
BRAND: Potential Support and Upside AheadHello,
BLACKBULL:BRENT remains significantly bearish overall, but it seems to have found support. Now, it just needs to confirm an upward movement with the 1M PP, and if that occurs, we can expect to see further gains!
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Brent Crude: Will De-escalation Lower Prices Even Further?Brent crude oil prices remain bearish below the October 29 high of $72.15 per barrel, with traders likely targeting the recent low around $70.49. A break below this level could drive prices further down to the next support at $69.40. Conversely, a push above $72.15 could lift prices higher, potentially closing the gap from Sunday. This gap emerged after news that Israel’s attack on Iran avoided energy production facilities, and Iran’s response was restrained. As a result, the market removed some of the risk premium that had been pricing in a wider regional conflict.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
XBRUSD (Brent Oil) | 29.10.2024BUY 71.60 | STOP 70.60 | TAKE 72.60 | Prices for benchmark Brent Crude Oil are correcting in a local downward trend, having lost value amid a significant easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
oilsince 1861, oil price has been oscillating in the form of a 5-wave move
the 5th wave of which is shortened.
or you can consider a contracting triangle, reverse alternation of counter type
whichever you consider, it seems highly probable that the price needs to be corrected price & time-wise.
Oil Prices Slump as Israel-Iran Tensions Drop: Bears Eye $71Israel's targeted strike, which avoided Iran's energy facilities, is driving crude oil prices sharply lower. After closing Friday at $75 per barrel, prices opened today at $72.61 and quickly dropped to a low of $71. This has created a notable gap between today’s high and Friday’s close, which could be filled if prices rebound temporarily before resuming a potential downward trend.The recent price action has also breached a significant triangle pattern, suggesting a strong downside move.
The trend will remain bearish below $74.32, with sellers targeting $71 and potentially $69.89 per barrel.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
A Bearish Gap on the Brent Crude Oil ChartA Bearish Gap on the Brent Crude Oil Chart
As the XBR/USD chart shows, Brent crude oil prices formed a gap at the start of this week: while Friday’s session closed at 75.60, Monday’s opening price dropped below 72.60.
According to Reuters, this development is tied to the fact that Israel’s recent missile strike on Iran did not impact oil or nuclear facilities, reducing the immediate risk of escalation.
Will Brent Crude Oil Prices Continue Falling?
In terms of technical analysis for XBR/USD today:
→ The price is within a descending channel (shown in red) that has been active since early summer. A bullish breakout attempt on 7 October was unsuccessful (marked by a red arrow), and Brent crude has since dropped over 10%. Price consolidation between 17-22 October near the median of this red channel confirms its current relevance.
→ Bulls had an opportunity to show strength with a bounce (marked by a blue arrow) from Support Line 1, which forms part of an upward structure represented by blue lines. However, today’s bearish gap erased these gains.
This allows traders to consider two scenarios:
→ Bearish Scenario: After breaking below Support, Brent could continue along the red descending channel. If the channel’s median line holds as resistance, this bearish outlook may be confirmed.
→ Bullish Scenario: Today’s bearish breach of the 18 October low could prove false, leading to a potential recovery back toward the structure of three blue lines.
Ultimately, which scenario plays out will largely depend on volatile news related to geopolitical tensions, the U.S. presidential election, and economic data from major economies.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil prices may fall more than expected.I think Brent crude oil prices will continue to fall.
In the coming years, renewable energy could steadily reduce demand for Brent crude oil.
* What i share here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose all your money.
