UKOUSD trade ideas
Brent oil prices are flat during early Wednesday tradingBrent oil prices are flat during early Wednesday trading after touching a multi-week low the previous day. Investors remain relatively unmoved by the potential impact that the additional voluntary production cuts agreed by the OPEC+ members will have on the market. Since the last day of November, the price of Brent has dropped more than 6%, showing that the markets’ concerns are tilted towards the demand side, as fears over an economic slowdown gain traction. The recent release of softer-than-expected economic data amplified this sentiment. Still, the downside has been limited by lingering fears of an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which could end up disrupting the crucial Middle Eastern supply routes. Against this background, Brent oil prices are likely to continue to find resistance around the 80-dollar level.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
#Crudeoil #BrentCrude OilAnother Good News to the World.
Any close below 74.60, as per 3Months chart, #Brentoil will fall to minimum 64$, below that 42.12.
Unless these levels are not tested, Brent oil won't make new high or another Bullish Move
Looking for UKOIL to turn now, starting wave 3 (target £100)We've been in a long wave 2 correction for the last couple of months, wave 2 has made a deep retracement, and we're now looking at the start of wave 3
Brent (UK OIL) - H4 - LongThe value area is between 76.5 - 78.5
Be careful about your RISK
The target will be 84$
Brent oil prices hedged up slightly during early Tuesday tradingBrent oil prices hedged up slightly during early Tuesday trading but remain close to the two-week low touched during the previous session. Prices declined on Monday as traders questioned the impact of the additional voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ for 2024. With economic activity falling in China and the American economy showing signs of slowing down, the focus of the markets lies on the demand side, with the perspective of a reduction in supply so far failing to lift prices. Still, the downside was capped by simmering tension in the Middle East, with the conflict between Israel and Hamas threatening to escalate following a string of attacks on cargo ships crossing the strategic oil route of the Red Sea.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
Brent crude- Wait for the bounce! Resistance ConfluenceBrent crude oil looks to have made the 1st leg lower in a new long term downtrend
Trade: Wait for bounce from recent thrust lower to cluster of resistance to go short
DeGRAM | UKOIL channel breakingUKOIL broke the ascending channel, and the price is pulling back to it.
The oil market is probably printing an AB=CD pattern.
We anticipate a continuation of the bearish trend. Breakout, pullback, and continuation
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Brent oil prices stabilised during early Friday trading Brent oil prices stabilised during early Friday trading after Thursday’s wild oscillations, which ended up with a daily drop of more than 2.6%. Earlier in the week, investors had been anticipating the agreement amongst OPEC+ countries to reduce output in a dynamic that offered support to the price of the barrel. However, yesterday’s announcement of additional voluntary cuts in oil production, in the order of 900,000 barrels per day, was seen by many as insufficient. With economic activity expected to slow down globally over the next few months and demand expected to fall, yesterday’s production cuts disappointed those who anticipated a more decisive stance from the cartel. Against this background, the risk for oil prices is now tilted to the downside, with the $80 support level likely to be challenged.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
Brent Oil - 4HIf the range of 80.0 units is broken downwards and the price stabilizes below it, the price may fall to the range of 79.5 units, and in case of strength, the range of 78.0 units.
Otherwise, the possibility of price increase up to the range of 82.5 units.
BCOUSD#Brent Crude Oil - H1
📣 Considering the chart structure on the 1-hour timeframe, in the event of a breakout above the upper boundary of the consolidation pattern in the range of 82.20, one can consider initiating a buy with a target of 85.40.
⛔ Stop-Loss: 81.10
On the other hand, in the case of a breakdown below the 81.10 range, there is an expectation of a price decline towards the 80.00 range.
⛔ Stop-Loss: 82.20
Today OPEC+ May Announce New Oil Production CutsAccording to WSJ, the reduction could be 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is in favour of cuts, but the idea causes disagreements among other members of the organisation.
In anticipation of news about the OPEC+ decision, the price of oil is rising - this indicates that market participants assess the possibility of new production cuts as quite real, even if we are not talking about 1 million barrels per day. The price is approaching its maximum for November.
The Brent oil price chart shows that:
→ the level of 80 dollars per barrel acts as support. In the twenties, the price dropped to the level more than once, but each time the bulls found the strength to recover;
→ rising lows A-B-C indicate the predominance of demand around the mentioned psychological level;
→ the price has been within the descending channel (shown in red) for more than a month, but is trying to consolidate above the median line. This is another sign of the bulls' persistence.
However, it should be recognized that the current bullish sentiment could easily change if OPEC+ fails to reach a consensus on significant restrictions on oil production aimed at supporting commodity prices.
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OIL - BRENTAs both institutional and retail traders await the OPEC + Meeting later today, we see technically the chart pattern and indicates an inverse head and shoulder and market is expected to break trendline and continue in the upward trend
Brent (ICE) (G4) Intraday May rise 1.69 %Pivot: 81.90
Our preference:
long positions above 81.90 with targets at 83.35 & 84.05 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
below 81.90 look for further downside with 81.25 & 80.70 as targets.
Comment:
the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
UKOil, 4hrs BUY bias.Inverted Head and shoulder pattern.
We would wait for a breakout above the resistance level to form a new support level and bullish candlestick formation before looking for entry positions in the 30mins timeframe.
OPEC+ meeting incomingInitially postponed due to member disagreements, the OPEC+ meeting is now set for Thursday. Discussions are poised to delve into the consideration of deeper oil production cuts. Analysts foresee the potential extension or intensification of supply reductions into the coming year to stabilise oil prices, which currently hover around $80 a barrel. While the possibility of a collective reduction in output exists, specific details remain undisclosed.
The delay stemmed from disagreements over output levels for African producers. However, indications suggest a closer approach to reaching a compromise. The meeting's agenda features discussions by an advisory panel followed by a session with OPEC+ ministers. Notably, members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia previously committed to significant oil output cuts. Current discussions revolve around the continuation of these reductions, including Saudi's voluntary production cut and Russia's export reduction, both set to expire by year-end.
The likelihood of further oil cuts appears imminent, prompting us to refrain from offering a price prediction. However, I foresee a potential market shift—possibly a 1-2% increase if oil cuts are announced or a corresponding decrease in production sees an increase instead. My belief leans towards the former scenario. Nonetheless, any price hike might be short-lived as Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are set to expire by year-end.
Henceforth, it pays to pay attention to this meeting and see what the fine details are.
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Update - W/C 20 Nov 2023Last Monday we posted our weekly price prediction for Brent Crude Oil.
The chart above is our analysis. You can see further analysis in our previous post.
Our price prediction for last week was between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max).
As you can see from the chart below our analysis proved true. The price stayed within the range. However, it followed the bearish indications more so than the bullish indications.
The price hit the blue line resistance levels and proceeded to go down. Following the resistance line and finding some support in the High Volume Node from the Fixed Range Volume Profile.
There are also fundamental factors at play here as well. OPEC+ delayed their meeting due on 26th November by four days due to conflicting opinions in the organisation, this is what also led to the price decline.
If you had shorted the stock once it hit the blue line resistance level it would have netted you around 3.30% ROI to the current price. Not bad for a week.
Weekly Price Prediction: $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max)Most of the technical analysis from last week still stands true but I have added a new Fixed Range Volume Profile from the last peak and a resistance line from there as well.
Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$81.00 - $78.00 High Volume Node - Potential Support
$81.00 - $83.00 Resistance Lines - potential resistance
$84.50 Point of Control - potential resistance
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
The price is above to hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level which could indicate a level of resistance.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The Fixed Range Volume Profile from last week still stands. As you can see the price went down to the bottom High Volume Node (HVM) and found support.
Point of Control (POC): Identified at $84.50, indicating a level of potential future resistance and good liquidity.
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential support region, preventing a rapid decline from the 0.5 Fibonacci breakout.
Upper HVM: Acting as both a resistance level and a zone where the price has historically stalled after the first peak.
Low Volume Node (LVM): Reflects a lack of liquidity, leading to rapid price movements. Notable price fluctuations occurred between October and November in this region, ranging from $91.00 to $87.00 and back up to $90.00.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Last week the stoch RSI (Bottom indicator) crossed over but the price then declined but as you can now see the RSI is showing higher lows and higher highs suggesting there is a good trend of price moving upward. This is further expressed by the MACD (top indicator) not having crossed over yet, but about to, showing a reason for bullish movement.
Additional Factors
Prior Support/Resistance (Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior support/resistance level. This is now a potential resistance level as the price seems to be reaching there.
Above the price, there is also another resistance level shown by a blue line that's drawn from the peaks of the latest peak to the trough.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
In summary, our analysis reaffirms the high volume nodes (HVN) as robust support levels, supported by the encouraging indications from the MACD and Stochastic RSI favouring a potential upward price movement, targeting the breach of the point of control (POC) towards the low volume node (LVN) level. However, prudence dictates a cautious stance due to the presence of two distinct resistance tiers and the historical resilience demonstrated at prior POCs. Consequently, we've expanded our projected price range to accommodate these intricacies. Traders are advised to exercise caution by implementing tight stops, recognising the market's potential for fluctuations within this nuanced landscape
Brent - D1\H4Oil Brent
D1 - The price has formed a triangular formation, which may mean that if it fixes beyond the lower line of the triangle border, the price may continue to fall further along the trend and further reduce the price to the levels of 70.19
When fixing behind the upper trend line, the price may reverse and begin to rise, since a 3-wave structure may already be formed for the targets; in this case, we will see the price of 89.21.
H4 - For purchases, it is better to wait for fixation behind the trend line; you can also try to open at the current price with minimal risk per transaction from the lower border of the triangle. If there is a fixation, turn into sales.
What to expect now?
Waiting for the level of 82.07 to be broken/fixed and an upward movement towards the nearest targets of 89.21.
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 78.93 - 78.23, if this scenario does not materialize.
When fixing behind the lower line 78.95 - 78.15, the idea is canceled when a 3-wave structure is formed in the opposite direction 89.95 - 82.87.
Long
Targets 83.01 - 84.31 - 86.68 - 89.21
Short
Targets 76.47 - 75.24 - 72.63 - 70.19
OPEC and the Crude oil danceThe OPEC+ meeting that was scheduled to take place this weekend was postponed after disagreements from some of the African nations regarding the cartels production quotas. OPEC’s African members Angola and Nigeria have reportedly asked to have a higher production ceiling next year, after taking a cut in their quotas at the June 2023 meeting of OPEC+ as they had consistently failed to pump to their quotas. Additionally, Angola, Congo and Nigeria were forced to commit to lower oil production next year, and this weekend’s meeting could potentially have pressured them to make further production cuts. The Saudis have reportedly expressed discontent over compliance with the deal as it shoulders the bulk of the quota burden. We will keep a close eye on the developments of the negotiations and how it will affect oil prices in the 1Q2024. Most sources are expecting Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer, to extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into 2024, considering the latest slide in oil prices to $80 per barrel and the typically weak period for oil demand in the first quarter of every year.
Brent crude has fallen roughly 15% since the start of October and it is ow tethering around the 200-day MA price of $82 per barrel. The critical level to watch is the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of $80 per barrel. A break below this level will see crude drop back down to $72 per barrel. It will however be a bullish sign if it can hold levels above $80 pb as it will confirm an end to the ABC corrective pattern and the start of another 5-wave impulse which could push crude to above $100 pb.
LongClearly heading for ascending in midterm.
opec ahead
chinese eco growth signs
middle east geopol risks
