Live Trading Session 234: Potential Trades on GBP,Brent & moreIn this live trading session video,we look at potential trades setting up for the week on GBPUSD,S&P 500,Brent Oil,Bitcoin and many more.
UKOUSD trade ideas
DeGRAM | UKOIL bearish pressureUKOIL dropped from the resistance at 88.00 and 87.00, which is a psychological level as well.
Price made lower lows and lower closes.
If the market retraces back to the resistance level at 86.00
We anticipate a pullback and bearish move since the market has dropped from this level before.
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Brent Oil to move lowerLast weeks Weekly Doji Candle close was a sign that that market was turning from Bullish to Bearish. The market has since broken down from its 7 week Bull run.
Chinas economic news of its possible recession will send Brent lower.
I'll be looking to open a short position.
At the moment I'm just waiting patiently to see what happens.
I'll post updates here as things move along.
double bottom on brentAs you can see a double bottom formed on a 1h timeframe , pattern confirmed on a 4h as well. Wait price to break above Neckline for a confirmed buy
The forecast came true.Yesterday's forecast for a decline in oil prices came true. After the breakdown of the support level, the quotes went down, but did not reach the target. Nevertheless, I believe that the forecast can be considered successful in view of the presence of a clear opportunity to close the deal with a profit.
Brent technical profile.Oil seems to be stuck in the corridor. At the moment, support is the level of 84.40. After the breakdown of this level, there is a possibility of quotes dropping to 83.40.
Brent Oil Analysisbe ready for getting a great short .
because of this heavy resistance .
make sure than you are ok with position risks and risk management.
Brent crude bullish pullbackIf the support on the 200-day MA and 50-day MA levels of $81 and $80 holds its ground, I expect brent crude to test the 38.2% Fibo retracement level of $93.50 pb.
Brent 78$ then 105$In my view Brent is forming a reverse H&S pattern right shoulder that could reverse @ 77-78$ area (less likely 74$ area) , my final tp is around 105$ in december
BRENT CRUDE OILBULLISH (with caution)
DOJI Candle formed on Weekly timefrme
Price seems to be showing signs of exhaustion
would consider a SHORT on a close and hold below
4H BOS and ascending trindline.
UPSIDE
A break and hold above 4H BOS and the 88.00
level could target the 92.00 level
Update UKOIL 👴📣Update UKOIL I'm doing some tests with a new indicator.
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Brent uptrend exhaustionContext:
Weekly – uptrend (UT), one-time-framing up
Daily – uptrend
Microstructure:
Poor highs, poor lows
Last day:
value moved down
Special notes:
There are multiple signs of UT exhaustions: shortening of daily trend upthrust, daily volume dries up, last week value area overlaps with previous week
Moreover, price is close to monthly resistance cloud. Without some stong bullish news it will be hard to get through it.
Conclusion:
A swing trader that is still LONG should strongly consider reducing position. At this point it is still too early to flip but risks of staying LONG outweigh potential upside.
For a day trader there is still an opportunity to play LONG as daily low high (LH) is still not set. The best risk-reward opportunity for LONG can be found near last week low
Strifor || UKOIL-08/15/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Oil quotes are at fairly significant daily values. Sale transactions are relevant, and we are just looking for them, however, it is most likely not worth delaying the sale, since a more global picture is most likely in favor of the buyer. Targets for the current short trade are considered at the level of 83.42, not lower.
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Small stop, why don't I give it a try?We can see how the price after an impulsive uptrend corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci level. At this level we see the interest of a big player and price manipulation. Equal lows were formed. After taking liquidity off these lows we can look at opening a long position to fill the price imbalance. There I will be closing part of the position and waiting for higher targets. Subscribe to the idea so you don't miss updates.
Brent Oil to $86-$88After a 2 month consolidation and accumulation
phase (04may-11Jul) and also after breaking various
bearish trendlines since the Mar 2022 top Brent Oil
has broken upwards to $81.49 this week.
I believe Brent Oil will retest the support area around
$77-78 over the next week or 2.
I'll be looking for entries in the $78 price area
for a long to $86-88 region.
Stay tuned for updates to this chart over the coming weeks!
DeGRAM | UKOIL continuation of trendUKOIL reached resistance, and it's pulling back from it. It is potentially printing the AB=CD pattern where the D point completes right at the fibo cluster level.
The market is trading in the ascending channel, indicating the bears are running out of steam and the bulls are in control.
We anticipate the continuation of this current trend from the psychological level at 85.00 and the fibo cluster.
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BRENT CRUDE OIL: Chart to watch for inflation progressBrent is up 20% since the last 6 weeks (from 28.06.23) ever since OPEC+ extended production cuts to 2024 recently. www.theguardian.com
Would this lead to an upward pressure on the coming months?
Brent - technical profile.Brent oil is testing support at 86.32. I think the price will pass it and go further - perhaps to the level of 83.30.
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet.
What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads"
Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports.
Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector.
There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels.
The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through.
Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel)
Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive.
So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe.
Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year.
If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ).
This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil.
The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87.
If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now.
The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff.
There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line.
This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend.
I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark.
As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
The previous forecast came true.The previous forecast for Brent oil was justified - the support of 86.35 was confirmed and the quotes updated the maximum. Perhaps the price will again approach this mark in order to re-test.
BRENT OIL (OUTLOOK)BRENT OIL
to be bearish should stable under 87.69 then will reach 86.04
to confirm the bearish trend should break 85.17 and stabilize under kit to get 83.50
and stabilizing above 88.71 will be bullish to reach 91.43
pivot price: 87.69
resistance price: 88.71 & 90.00 & 91.43
support price: 86.04 & 85.17 & 83.50
Brent oil will move between 87.69 and 86.04
