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Can oil prices hit 100 usd/bbl in 2025?🔸Based on technicals it's entirely possible. Looking at the daily price chart of Brent Oil we can spot a sequence of lower lows having said that prices are also compressing in a falling wedge price structure which could indicate a swift reversal off the lows near 65 USD/bbl. 🔸Potential price targets for Brent at 100/110 USD bbl if the tensions escalate further in 2025, which is almost guaranteed at this stage. 🔸The possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict has escalated tensions in the Middle East, which is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Although Israel has not yet officially declared war on Iran, there is ongoing speculation about Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure in response to missile attacks and Iran's support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Such actions could significantly disrupt the global oil market. 🔸If Israel were to target major Iranian oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, which handles the majority of Iran's oil exports, global oil prices could spike dramatically. Analysts suggest prices could exceed $100 per barrel and might even reach as high as $200 if the conflict spreads to other regional oil producers or if key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. This scenario would impact not only fuel prices but also inflation globally, reviving economic fears similar to those seen during the 1970s oil crisis​ 🔸At the moment, oil prices have already seen increases due to the broader conflict, but the market has remained relatively stable thanks to diversified supplies from the U.S. and other non-Middle Eastern producers​ ​ 🔸However, if the situation deteriorates further, particularly with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, more significant price hikes are likely. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
TVC:UKOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
Oil and Lithium: Horizon in the Energy TransformationThe global energy market is undergoing dramatic changes, with oil and lithium playing a crucial role. As oil prices face a significant weekly drop, the extraction of lithium in oil fields, such as the Smackover Formation in the United States, offers a revolutionary opportunity for the energy industry. These developments reflect the current dilemma: the same reservoir that fueled combustion engines could now drive the transition to electric mobility. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday in Asian trading, boosted by a drop in U.S. inventories. However, Brent and WTI futures are heading for a weekly loss of around 6%, the steepest since September, due to growing concerns about global demand. China's GDP data showed moderate growth, but the government's recent stimulus measures failed to generate the expected momentum, affecting market expectations. The strength of the U.S. dollar, coupled with concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, has put pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following Israel's response to an attack by Iran, have added a risk premium to oil prices. Traders fear that these conflicts could disrupt Iranian oil supplies, increasing volatility in an already volatile market. At the same time, lithium extraction in oil fields is emerging as a promising solution. In the United States, the Smackover Formation has been the epicenter of research that seeks to take advantage of oil field brines, which contain lithium in large quantities. Companies such as ExxonMobil and Standard Lithium, in alliance with Equinor, are leading projects that could transform lithium production through advanced technologies such as direct lithium extraction (DLE), which would reduce the need for large evaporation ponds and increase commercial viability. On the technical side, Brent crude oil (Ticker AT: BRENT) has been moving in a range between $95.11 and $71.47, its average trading range coinciding with the Point of Control (POC) around $82.00. At the moment the delta pressure indicators indicate a bearish pressure that coincides with an RSI at 45.69%. We have to watch the macroeconomic backdrop to see if the price of crude oil tries to test support again and returns towards the POC area or pierces in the direction of $68.46. Although oil demand seems to be slowing down, the lithium boom and its importance for electric mobility shows an energy horizon where both resources could coexist, facilitating both traditional and future energy. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTShort
by ActivTrades
Will the World's Most Vital Artery Become Its Achilles' Heel?In the intricate dance of global energy markets, few factors wield as much influence as the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway, often overlooked in daily discourse, stands as a silent titan, controlling the ebb and flow of 21% of the world's daily oil consumption. As geopolitical tensions simmer in the Middle East, the stability of this crucial chokepoint hangs in delicate balance, challenging us to confront a stark reality: how vulnerable is our global economy to disruptions in this single maritime passage? The potential for conflict to spill over into the Strait of Hormuz presents a fascinating study in risk assessment and market psychology. Despite the looming threat of supply disruptions that could send oil prices soaring to unprecedented heights—some analysts project as high as $350 per barrel—the market remains surprisingly sanguine. This dichotomy between potential catastrophe and current calm invites us to explore the complex interplay of factors that shape oil prices, from geopolitical maneuvering to the subtle influence of alternative supply routes. As we stand at this crossroads of energy security and global trade, we are challenged to think critically about the future of oil markets and international relations. The Strait of Hormuz serves not just as a geographical feature, but as a mirror reflecting our world's intricate dependencies and the delicate balance of power that underpins global stability. In contemplating its significance, we are invited to look beyond the immediate concerns of oil prices and consider broader questions of energy resilience, diplomatic strategy, and the evolving landscape of international trade in an increasingly uncertain world.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by signalmastermind
Bearish Bias on Brent crude oilThe market was on an uptrend respecting the initial Bullish breaker block at 76.0 but Price failed to break past $80.0 per barrel. An impulse move occurred yesterday due to rising tensions in the middle east. Price sliced and broke through the bullish breaker block making it a new Bearish Mitigation block. A Break of structure happened invalidating the previous bullish breaker waiting on a retracement, I anticipate continuation of sells from 75.111 to 71.564
FX:UKOILShort
by Nigel-K-W
UKOIL "BRENT" Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Hola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰 This is our master plan to Heist UKOIL "BRENT" Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰. Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style. Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
FX:UKOILLong
by Thief_Trader
The Inevitable Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East ConflictThe Inevitable Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East Conflict: The Iran-Israel Factor Introduction: Oil Prices and Middle East Geopolitical Tensions Regardless of economic trends in China, U.S. election outcomes, or broader political shifts, one critical factor dominates oil prices and inflation: the potential for a war in the Middle East that disrupts oil supply. Central banks can adjust interest rates, introduce stimulus, or employ any number of monetary policies, but they hold no sway over oil prices when conflict triggers supply shortages. This is especially true in the volatile context of current Middle East tensions, where any escalation could send oil prices soaring and inflation out of control globally. Today, the greatest risk to oil markets is the possibility of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Should Israel strike Iranian oil or power facilities, Iran has threatened to retaliate by targeting oil-producing countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia. Such an attack could disrupt the region’s oil supply, triggering an energy crisis that neither central banks nor governments can manage. Inflation would skyrocket, driven by oil shortages, which affect every sector of the global economy. Iran-Israel Conflict: The Catalyst for Oil Price Spikes The Middle East accounts for over half of the world’s proven oil reserves, making it a vital region for global energy markets. While geopolitical instability in the region is not new, the current tensions between Israel and Iran are more volatile than ever. Israel has long considered preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear and energy infrastructure, particularly if Iran escalates its involvement in the ongoing conflict. A strike of this nature would reverberate throughout the oil market, with Iran vowing to retaliate by targeting oil infrastructure across the region. In a worst-case scenario, Iran’s response could involve direct attacks on the oil facilities of major producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others. Iran’s extensive influence in the region, through various proxy forces, would allow it to disrupt oil production and transportation across multiple fronts. Any damage to Saudi oil infrastructure—already the target of previous attacks—would cause immediate supply disruptions, reducing the flow of oil to global markets and sending prices sharply higher. If the conflict were to spread, and key oil facilities or transportation routes like the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted, the global oil market would face severe supply shortages. With over 20% of the world’s oil passing through this narrow waterway, any blockade or attack on shipping routes would exacerbate the crisis. The result: oil prices would surge, and global inflation would spiral as energy costs rise. Central Banks Powerless in the Face of Oil-Driven Inflation Unlike demand-driven inflation, which central banks can manage with interest rate cuts or liquidity injections, oil supply shocks driven by conflict are beyond their control. Oil is fundamental to the global economy—it powers transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. When its price rises sharply, the cost of goods and services follows. Central banks can’t increase the supply of oil, reopen blocked shipping routes, or repair damaged oil fields. Interest rate cuts, in this context, would do little to mitigate the inflationary pressure caused by a shortage of oil. While monetary policy can stimulate demand, it cannot resolve the basic issue of supply disruption. History has shown that inflation driven by rising oil prices is far more difficult to control than other types of inflation, as seen during the oil crises of the 1970s. The Threat to Regional Oil Infrastructure Iran’s threat to retaliate against Saudi Arabia and other oil producers in the region is not without precedent. In recent years, regional oil facilities have been the target of drone and missile attacks, and any future conflict would likely see a repeat of these incidents on a larger scale. The 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities cut the country’s oil output in half for a short time, demonstrating how vulnerable the region’s infrastructure is to such threats. If oil fields or processing plants in Saudi Arabia or other key producers were damaged or taken offline, the global oil supply would be severely constrained. Oil prices would break key levels—likely shooting past $100 per barrel and higher—causing a ripple effect of inflation as energy costs skyrocket across industries. The world’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil leaves it exposed to this kind of disruption, and there is no easy solution once the supply lines are threatened. Conclusion: A Middle East War Is the Decisive Factor for Oil Prices In summary, no political or economic development—whether in China, the U.S., or elsewhere—can have the same immediate impact on oil prices as a major conflict in the Middle East. If Israel strikes Iran’s oil and energy facilities, and Iran retaliates by targeting other oil producers, the result would be a severe supply shock that would send oil prices soaring beyond central banks’ control. Inflation, driven by rising energy costs, would spike, and no amount of monetary policy intervention could counterbalance the disruption in supply. In this scenario, the global economy faces the prospect of a severe energy crisis. Oil prices could reach record highs, potentially surpassing $120 per barrel, and inflation would ripple through every sector dependent on oil. Ultimately, a war in the Middle East remains the single most decisive factor that could drive oil prices up, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Winter is coming.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by strip
How to Trade Crude Oil: Trading StrategiesHow to Trade Crude Oil: Trading Strategies Learning how to trade crude oil requires a nuanced understanding of its fundamental aspects, instruments, and trading strategies. This comprehensive article offers insights into the critical elements that affect crude oil prices, the range of instruments available for trading, and specific strategies traders use in this market. The Basics of Crude Oil Crude oil, often referred to as "black gold," is a fossil fuel derived from the remains of ancient organic matter. It serves as a crucial raw material for various industries, including transportation, chemicals, and manufacturing. Two primary types of crude oil traded on global markets are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude. WTI is primarily sourced from the United States and is known for its high quality and low sulphur content. On the other hand, Brent Crude originates mainly from the North Sea and serves as an international pricing benchmark. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes members like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela, plays a pivotal role in determining global oil supply. By adjusting production levels, OPEC influences crude oil prices significantly. Additionally, other countries like Russia and the United States contribute to the world's oil supply, further affecting market dynamics. What Time Does the Oil Market Open? Like forex markets, crude oil trading hours are nearly 24/5. They’re typically highly liquid and offer traders multiple opportunities across a given day. For example, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) opens for trading from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon, with a brief daily trading break. Activity is most intense during the US session, which runs from 9:00 AM to 17:00 PM EST, and the European session, from 2:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST. These periods coincide with peak market activity and are generally the most volatile, with the overlap between the US and European sessions (between 9:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST) offering the greatest volatility and trading activity. Factors Affecting Crude Oil Trading In oil trading, economics is a fundamental aspect that traders need to grasp to make educated decisions. Several factors drive the price of crude oil, and here are some of the most significant: - Supply and Demand: At its core, the price of crude oil is determined by how much of it is available (supply) versus how much is wanted (demand). An oversupply can depress prices, while high demand can cause prices to spike. - Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, wars, and diplomatic tensions in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, affecting prices. For instance, sanctions on Iran or instability in Venezuela can push prices higher. - Currency Fluctuations: Oil prices are generally quoted in US dollars. A strong dollar can make oil more expensive for countries using other currencies, thereby affecting demand. - Seasonal Changes: During winter, demand for heating oil can rise, pushing crude oil prices up. Conversely, a mild winter might result in lower demand and prices. - Technological Advances: Innovations in extraction methods, such as fracking, can alter the supply landscape, making it easier to extract oil and thereby affecting prices. - OPEC Decisions: As previously mentioned, OPEC has a significant influence on oil prices. Their production quotas can tighten or flood the market, causing price swings. - Economic Indicators: Data like unemployment rates, manufacturing output, and interest rates can indicate the health of an economy, which in turn can affect oil consumption and prices. - Environmental Policies: Increasing regulations and policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy sources can impact the demand and supply of crude oil, thereby influencing prices. - Natural Disasters: Events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters can disrupt oil production and supply chains, leading to fluctuations in crude oil prices. - Global Economic Growth: The overall growth of the global economy plays a critical role in crude oil demand. Economic booms often lead to higher energy consumption, driving up oil prices, while economic slowdowns can reduce demand and lower prices. How Is Crude Oil Traded? When learning how to trade oil, traders have a variety of instruments to choose from. CFDs Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are popular instruments when trading crude. CFDs are used by traders to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset. Essentially, a CFD is a contract between a trader and a broker to exchange the difference in price from the point the position is opened to when it is closed. One of the key benefits is the use of leverage, which means traders can control a larger position with a smaller initial investment, amplifying both potential returns and losses. Margin requirements vary by broker but are typically lower for CFDs on oil compared to some other instruments. This makes it appealing for crude oil day trading strategies, where traders aim to capitalise on short-term price movements. However, managing risk effectively is crucial, as the leveraged nature of CFDs can result in significant losses if the market moves against you. At FXOpen, we offer both CFDs on WTI Crude oil and Brent Crude. Head over there to explore a world of trading tools and other assets beyond crude oil. Futures Futures contracts are another well-established avenue for trading crude oil. Unlike CFDs, futures are standardised agreements to buy or sell a specific quantity of oil at a predetermined price at a set date in the future. They are traded on regulated exchanges, providing an added layer of transparency and security. Spot Market In spot trading, one buys or sells crude oil and takes immediate delivery and ownership. Unlike futures and CFDs, there's no leverage in spot trading, making it a less risky option. However, the absence of leverage requires a higher initial investment. While retail traders often avoid spot trading due to storage and transportation challenges, it's commonly used by entities directly involved in production or consumption. This method is more straightforward but demands the logistical capabilities that individual traders usually lack. ETFs Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offer an alternative for those interested in the crude oil market without dealing with futures contracts or physical ownership. Crude oil ETFs typically track the price of oil or related indices by holding futures contracts or a blend of oil company stocks. This allows investors to indirectly gain exposure to oil price movements with less complexity. Investing in a crude oil ETF can provide a degree of diversification, as these funds may also include assets like bonds or other commodities in their portfolio. However, it's essential to be aware of the management fees and potential tracking errors in the ETF's performance compared to the actual commodity. Stocks Another route to gain exposure to the crude oil market is by investing in the stocks of companies involved in the industry. This includes major producers, refineries, and even transportation companies. By owning shares in these businesses, investors are indirectly influenced by crude oil prices. To use an example, a rise in oil prices often boosts the profitability of oil-producing companies, potentially leading to stock price appreciation. Unlike trading futures or CFDs, investing in stocks means actually owning a piece of the company, often with the added benefits of dividends. However, conducting thorough research is crucial, as these stocks can be affected by company-specific risks in addition to oil price movements. Crude Oil Trading Strategies Given the volatile nature of crude oil prices, traders employ specific strategies to capitalise on price fluctuations. Here are some strategies that may be useful for crude oil trading: Trend Following with Moving Averages The trend is your friend, especially in commodities like crude oil. This is a well-known technique but it may be very useful for commodity trading. One effective way to follow the trend is by using moving averages, such as the 50-day (blue) and 200-day (orange). When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it's generally a bullish signal, and vice versa for a bearish trend. However, as with all technical analysis tools, moving averages can sometimes trigger false signals. Range Trading Due to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors, crude oil prices often fluctuate within a specific range. Identifying these ranges can be useful for short-term trading. Traders buy at the lower end of the range and sell at the higher end, applying technical indicators like RSI or Stochastic Oscillator for entry and exit signals. News-Based Trading In crude oil markets, news about OPEC decisions, US oil inventory data, geopolitical tensions, and technological advancements can dramatically impact prices. Traders keeping an eye on oil news can take advantage of sudden announcements or an economic release likely to push prices in a particular direction. Given the high leverage commonly available in CFD trading, this strategy can be effective but also comes with significant risk. Trade Crude Oil at FXOpen Trade WTI and Brent Crude oil CFDs at FXOpen to take advantage of our competitive spreads, high liquidity, and lightning-fast execution speeds. We offer four different trading platforms, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, TickTrader, and TradingView, each with desktop, web-based and mobile versions for access anytime and anywhere. Take advantage of advanced technical analysis tools, including many trading tools and expert advisors for automated trading. Traders can rest easy knowing that FXOpen is also regulated by the FCA in the UK, CySEC in Cyprus, and is licensed to provide financial services in Australia: AFSL 412871 – ABN 61 143 678 719. Start trading oil and gas commodity CFDs with confidence at FXOpen and explore a world of trading opportunities across more than 600 markets. To access Crude Oil markets with competitive spreads and rapid execution speeds, consider opening an FXOpen account today and step confidently into the world of crude oil trading. The Bottom Line In crude oil trading, having the right strategies and tools is essential. By understanding the fundamentals, market dynamics, and utilising specific trading techniques, you are now equipped with the knowledge you need to get started! FAQ How to Trade Brent Crude Oil? To trade Brent Crude oil, you can use various instruments such as futures contracts, CFDs, ETFs, or stocks of oil companies. Most retail traders use CFDs, which provide a way to speculate on price movements without owning the asset. CFDs also allow for leverage, which can amplify both potential gains and losses. What Is the Brent Oil Trading Strategy? A common Brent oil trading strategy involves trend following using moving averages. For instance, traders use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to identify bullish or bearish trends. Range trading and news-based trading are also popular strategies. What Hours Does Crude Oil Trade? Crude oil trades nearly 24/5. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) operates from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon with a daily break. The most active trading occurs during the US session (9:00 AM to 2:30 PM EST) and the European session (6:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST). What Is the Best Time to Trade Brent Crude Oil? According to theory, the best time to trade Brent Crude oil is during the overlap of the US and European sessions, from 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM EST, when market liquidity and volatility are highest. However, you should consider fundamental factors as they can lead to unexpected price movements. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSDEducation
by FXOpen
6
Brent crude: Buying into the stormAny trade you take in oil right now is probably going to make you a quick win or loss . Oil has easily been the most volatile market this week - it's pretty obvious why 1) Hurricanes in the US disrupting supply 2) War in the Middle East For us, the trend is higher since breaking through $76 / bbl. And the latest fractal forming a higher low helped confirm this idea. This uptrend has not been properly established with 2 higher highs, which offers bigger possible upside but also a greater chance of never getting going. You can see the price is trapped between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA. We see a chance for a favourable 2:1 risk reward by trading the pullback from yesterday's bullish engulfing candlestick up to this week's high around 81.50. What do you think? Please share your ideas in a comment
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by jasperlawler
Brent Crude Oil Analysis==>> Fundamental + TechnicalBrent Crude Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) began to rise from the Heavy Support zone($71.30-$64.80) after Iran attacked Israel . ( It seemed that before the attack of Iran, Brent oil intended to fall and correction further ). Today's fundamental analysis of Brent crude oil prices is influenced by several key factors: Geopolitical Tensions : The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil production and exports. Any attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil exports, could reduce supply and drive prices higher. These concerns have contributed to the recent rise in Brent prices, pushing it above $80 per barrel. Global Demand : China's recent large-scale economic stimulus aimed at boosting recovery has increased optimism for higher oil demand. As the world's largest oil consumer, any rise in demand from China directly influences global oil prices. OPEC+ Supply Capacity : Although OPEC+ still has significant spare production capacity, there are worries that a severe crisis in the region could overwhelm this capacity, preventing the group from compensating for any sudden drop in supply. Overall, the short-term outlook for Brent crude appears bullish, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and potential increases in demand from China. However, the market remains cautious to see if these trends will hold over time. Now, according to the fundamental analysis of Brent Crude Oi, let's see which area is suitable for buying Brent Crude Oi . Brent Crude Oil is moving near the Support zone and the Support line . Brent Crude Oil's movement structure is corrective , and we should expect it to move upwards again . I expect Brent Crude Oil to start rising again from or near the Support zone and at least to $81(Yearly Pivot Point) and then attack the Resistance lines . Brent Crude Oil Analyze (USDBRO), Daily time frame⏰. 🔔 Be sure to follow the updated ideas. 🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
3
Should we get ready for Brent Crude oil at $94?Crude oil prices have risen by 18.5% since September, and the charts indicate the potential for a move toward $94 per barrel. This is based on the possibility that Brent crude oil may be forming the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. For confirmation, we would need the price to reach the low of the left shoulder at $74.96 before triggering the neckline at the October high of $80.99. If this happens, the pattern would complete, suggesting a target of $94. What are your thoughts? Do you think this pattern will play out, or was the October high a multi-month peak? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BRENT
by ThinkMarkets
1
Oil’s Battle: Can Momentum Overcome Long-Term Weakness?Oil prices surged past critical technical levels last week as escalating Middle East tensions raised fears of significant supply disruptions. As bullish momentum builds in response to geopolitical risks, let’s explore the key levels to watch, where short-term gains could face resistance from lingering long-term weakness. Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Oil's Rally Last week, oil logged its biggest weekly gain in nearly two years, surging more than 8% as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The rally was sparked by growing fears of supply disruptions after Israel considered striking Iran’s oil infrastructure in retaliation for missile attacks. With Iran exporting 1.7 million barrels per day, any attack on its facilities could trigger a significant cut to global supply. The risk of a broader conflict extends beyond Iran. Should Tehran retaliate or block the Strait of Hormuz—through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows—oil shipments from key producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq could grind to a halt. Such a move would have devastating effects on global supply chains, with experts warning that oil prices could surge past $150 per barrel, leading to severe economic fallout. The mere speculation of these events has already fuelled the sharp rise in prices. Technical Levels Align for Oil's Next Test From a technical standpoint, oil’s rally has been impressive but faces a key test just ahead. Having broken through its 50-day moving average and the descending trendline, prices now sit just below the 200-day moving average—a major resistance zone that’s aligned with both the April and July swing highs. Additionally, the VWAP anchored to the April highs further bolsters this area as a point of confluence. The RSI is elevated but still not in overbought territory, which leaves room for more upside if prices can clear the 200-day moving average. However, a failure to break above this resistance zone could signal a temporary top, especially if geopolitical tensions cool. Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Hourly Candle Chart – A Battle of the Timeframes Drilling down to the detail of the hourly candle chart reveals a battle between short-term momentum and long-term weakness. Prices have already responded to the daily VWAP anchored to the April highs, causing a pullback on the hourly chart. Traders should also keep an eye on the upward-sloping VWAP anchored to the recent October lows, as this provides a true average price for those who bought at the recent lows. As these two VWAPs converge, we will see who wins—the short-term momentum traders or those looking to ride the longer-term weakness. Brent Crude Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by Capitalcom
XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80 As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil prices surged by over 8.5% last week — marking the largest increase in 2024, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Although oil prices continued to climb earlier this week, a pullback occurred on Tuesday, causing Brent crude to drop below the $80 level. It appears that market participants expect U.S. authorities to prevent the conflict from worsening ahead of the presidential elections, prompting them to lock in profits from previous long positions based on the technical outlook. XBR/USD Technical Analysis Today's analysis of the XBR/USD chart shows that Brent crude is moving within an upward channel (shown in blue) that began in the first half of September. The recent downturn (indicated by an arrow) comes as: → The price has entered a resistance zone, marked by the psychological $80 level and the August highs around $81.5. → The RSI indicator has risen above 85. → The price has touched the upper boundary of the channel. If tensions in the Middle East ease, we could see a pullback on the XBR/USD chart following the impressive rally. Brent crude prices may find support at the median line of the blue channel, the $77.50 level, and the purple lines marking last week’s strong price growth. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
The Potential Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions The Potential Surge in Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions Introduction: The Current Oil Market Landscape Oil prices have always been closely tied to both geopolitical tensions and broader economic trends. At present, the market is contending with a confluence of factors that could lead to a significant rise in prices. Most notably, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran presents a serious risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, a region that plays a pivotal role in global oil production. However, beyond geopolitical factors, economic measures around the world—such as new stimulus initiatives in China, anticipated global interest rate cuts, and potential central bank actions to inject liquidity into financial markets—also suggest that oil could be on the cusp of a major price surge. Recent price movements have kept oil within a downward channel, with current prices hovering near $77 per barrel, as indicated in the accompanying chart. Yet, this downward trend may be short-lived. Once oil prices break above key technical levels, such as $87 per barrel, we could see prices escalate rapidly to $90, $95, and ultimately $100. From that point, the market could enter a new bullish phase, with prices potentially reaching as high as $120, spurred by both geopolitical tensions and increasing real demand. Geopolitical Factors Driving Oil Prices: The Middle East in Focus The Middle East, home to many of the world’s largest oil-producing nations, has long been a region of strategic importance to the global energy market. The current conflict between Israel and Iran is reigniting concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, particularly if the situation escalates into a wider regional conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, could become a flashpoint if tensions rise. In past conflicts, any disruptions to this narrow passage have sent oil prices soaring due to the immense volume of oil that flows through the region daily. Iran, already constrained by international sanctions, may retaliate by targeting infrastructure or further disrupting oil shipments, while other regional players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could find themselves drawn into the conflict. Even the perception of instability in the region can cause volatility in oil prices, as traders and speculators seek to hedge against potential supply shocks. Given this backdrop, oil prices are highly sensitive to any developments in the Middle East, and further escalation could push prices beyond key resistance levels. The Economic Context: Global Stimulus and Interest Rate Cuts Beyond geopolitical risks, there are several macroeconomic factors that strongly suggest oil prices are poised for a significant increase. First, the Chinese government has recently introduced a series of stimulus measures aimed at bolstering its economy, which has faced challenges in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing issues in the real estate sector. These measures are expected to drive demand for commodities, including oil, as China, the world’s largest importer of oil, ramps up its industrial activity and consumer consumption. Simultaneously, central banks across the world are likely to cut interest rates in the near future as global economic growth shows signs of slowing. With inflation moderating in several advanced economies, central banks like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and others could pivot toward a more accommodative monetary policy to support growth. Rate cuts tend to increase liquidity in the financial system, making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment. As liquidity flows into the markets, demand for oil typically increases, as businesses expand operations and consumers spend more on goods and services that require energy inputs. Moreover, there are growing expectations of additional stimulus measures from other major economies to prevent recessionary pressures from taking hold. This influx of liquidity, coupled with China’s own stimulus efforts, is likely to drive global demand for oil higher, reinforcing the upward pressure on prices. The combination of increased demand from economic recovery and potential supply risks due to Middle Eastern tensions creates a perfect storm for oil prices to break out of their current bearish trend. U.S. Strategic Oil Reserves and National Security Concerns Adding to the bullish case for oil is the fact that the United States' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently at depleted levels. Over the past two years, the U.S. government has released significant amounts of oil from the SPR in an attempt to curb rising domestic gasoline prices and stabilize global energy markets. However, these releases have reduced the reserve to its lowest levels in decades, and any further large-scale drawdowns are unlikely due to national security concerns. The U.S. government will likely prioritize maintaining the remaining reserves for genuine emergencies, rather than using them as a tool to stabilize market prices. This depletion of the U.S. oil reserves further tightens the global supply picture, as one of the world's largest emergency stockpiles is no longer available as a buffer against sudden supply shocks. In the event of a major supply disruption—whether due to a conflict in the Middle East or other unforeseen events—the absence of a large SPR release would leave the global market more vulnerable, driving prices higher. This, combined with the aforementioned stimulus measures, could create a significant imbalance between supply and demand, leading to sustained upward pressure on oil prices. Technical Analysis of Oil Prices: Breaking Out of the Downward Channel From a technical standpoint, the oil market is currently trading within a downward channel, as depicted in the accompanying chart. Prices have been steadily declining over the past few months, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market. However, this trend may be nearing a turning point, particularly as oil prices approach key resistance levels. The first significant level to watch is $87 per barrel. This price has served as a formidable resistance in recent weeks, and breaking above this level would be a clear signal that the market is shifting from a bearish to a bullish phase. Once $87 is breached, the next targets would be $90 and $95, both of which represent important psychological and technical barriers. If oil prices can sustain a move above $95, it would set the stage for a test of the $100 mark—a critical level that has historically acted as both a resistance and support point for oil prices. The $100 level is particularly important because it marks the top of the current downward channel, and a move above this threshold would indicate a reversal of the broader downtrend. A successful breakout above $100 could see oil prices enter a new bullish phase, with the potential to climb as high as $120 per barrel, particularly if geopolitical risks remain elevated and global demand continues to increase due to economic stimulus measures. The Role of Market Sentiment and Future Outlook While technical analysis and geopolitical factors provide strong arguments for a potential rise in oil prices, market sentiment will also play a crucial role in determining the future trajectory of the market. Currently, investor sentiment is mixed, with many traders cautious about the outlook for global economic growth. However, as central banks around the world begin to ease monetary policy and introduce new stimulus measures, sentiment could shift rapidly toward a more bullish outlook for oil. In particular, hedge funds and large institutional investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from major economies like the U.S. and China. If tensions between Israel and Iran escalate further or if there is a significant disruption to oil supply, it could lead to a sharp rise in speculative buying, driving prices higher. At the same time, if global economic growth accelerates due to stimulus measures, real demand for oil will increase, providing fundamental support for higher prices. Conclusion: A Bullish Outlook for Oil Prices? In summary, oil prices are currently at a critical juncture, with both geopolitical and macroeconomic factors pointing toward a potential breakout from the current downward trend. While the market remains trapped in a downward channel for now, key technical levels, such as $87 per barrel, suggest that a significant move higher could be imminent. Once prices break through $87, the next targets would be $90, $95, and ultimately $100—beyond which the market could enter a new bullish phase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, are a major risk factor that could disrupt global oil supplies and send prices soaring. At the same time, new stimulus measures in China, along with anticipated global interest rate cuts and potential central bank interventions to inject liquidity into the markets, are expected to drive demand for oil higher. The depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve further tightens the supply side, adding to the bullish case for oil. Ultimately, oil prices could rise as high as $120 per barrel if these factors align, creating a perfect storm of increased demand, constrained supply, and heightened geopolitical risks. For traders and investors, the oil market presents significant opportunities in the months ahead, as both technical and fundamental indicators point to a potential surge in prices.
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